Updated

GOLD Shorter Term Analysis

Hi guys, this is what i see with GOLD at the moment. Check my earlier chart ideas for a more bigger picture analysis however in this current state i believe that Gold is completing it's final, yet smaller wave 5. Price has breached my two targets and now reaching the third target as shown in the picture. This price point also coincides with a rejection off the 4 hour Head & Shoulders neckline.

Once Wave 5 is complete, price will come up to correct with most likely a sharp ABC correction to the blue zone fibonacci zones between 38.2 - 61.8%.

On a psychological point of view, some traders will see that price has attempted to reach/break the neckline level however has rejected away from it multiple times. This will get the minds of some traders leaning more towards a longer term buy and a future projection that price will be above this level. This will inevitably add to the buy orders also, especially once they see a sharp ABC correction shooting up from this level. Emotions will kick in as more traders discount a further short move.

Once the ABC correction is complete, we will have completed wave 2 and hence beginning wave 3. I see us as completing Wave 1 currectly of a bigger Wave 3, meaning there will be some big moves ahead especially once this ABC correction is complete. In my eyes we will see price completely break and pierce below the neckline of the Head & Shoulders pattern and make some big moves to the short side. More analysis for that coming in the future. For now lets focus on what we have at hand.

Please like and follow to support me. I hope my analysis provides value to you all.

:) Happy Trading.

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** last triangle ABCDE - correction.

Let me also draw in additional waves.

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I want to emphasis that price can do as it wishes. This is an auction play with buyers and seller. Price CAN just break below the neckline and continue dropping.
What i posted is a potential scenario and one that i believe has a high probability of occuring, in my opinion and perspective. I am looking to place tight stop losses and take some of my profit in the case that price does drop then i will still hold positions on a short. In the case that i see clear indication the price is going to reverse then i will begin adding long positions while holding my shorts in tight stops (in profit).
Hence i will attempt to capitalise on both directions here.

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"auction place" ***

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We are almost at the Target and just above the neckline.
Will we break straight through or create a false breakout (As seen since target is below the neckline)?
If it breaks and continues falling, i will be holding tight stop losses (stop profits now) and let it run. If price decides to do a false breakout and shoot back up, i have set a plan for that too as shown in the analysis.

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For accuracy, I redrew the Head & Shoulders pattern. The neckline aligns with the 1285 price level, a critical level.

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Remember we are in a bigger wave 3 and hence it is strong, it may just drop. We will see.

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Lets check out price action above this trendline

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Looking like a false breakout :) ABC correction coming. I'm on buys. Anyone else in on these trades too?

Trade active

Ride it out guys.

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Waiting for the retracement to end between 38.2 - 61.8%. Let price run it's course of the ABC correction.

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Those fibonacci zones are not set in stone but that's the more likely area for the retracement.

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I believe we have completed leg A of ABC correction and possibily could be the end of leg B aswell. Leg C remaining.

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Just want to emphasis that you must be careful on this Wave B. Here is where a lot of traders have trouble. Just wait until you see some momentum going up and get in on a small pullback with tight stops if you want to ride it up.

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Looks like it could be it.

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Lets go guys! More updates as we go. For now, time to go for a little walk outside in the sun and get myself a nice delicious coffee from my favourite barista ( I think he is closing up soon, BETTER RUN!)
Let's catch these moves together guys!

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I am not phased!! :P

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If it breaks below i will short. Price tapped off the 23.6% Fib which happens in strong moves. However i believe it still may go up. People get burnt trying to trade this B wave. There's a reason for it. Lets wait and play accordingly.

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As long as it remains above the beginning of point A the trade is still valid.

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I think the B wave finished. Possible move up for Wave C now. You see what i mean about the B wave? They are tricky things and burn a lot of traders trying to trade it. It can come down all the way down to the start of point A if it wants.
If you want to enter place stop loss under the end of point B.
I like the MACD cross as an added confirmation also.

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However lets wait and see just to be safe..

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Must bounce up from here or else it's a drop

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Rocket Fuel added. Thrusters on, lift off?

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Looks like it might be complete now and finally we can start leg C.

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Shoot up now or one more smaller leg down before the shoot up.
90-150 pips from here if it does. Will provide further details when we are moving up.

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A couple things:
1. Price bounced off the 23.6% Fibonacci which is a legit fib that we should have watched out for ESPECIALLY since i was expecting such a strong move with this WAVE 3. Price action is currently evident of this strong move also.
Even though it is uncommon, price can retrace off this Fibonacci Zone of 23.6%.
(continue on below this image)

Therefore, that means that the strong impulse it made before is the ABC correction here:

I just don't like this ABC correction, the count didn't fit well with me especially on the smaller time frame.

I had a hunch that the movements down were of an impulse especially with the way it looks.

I'm on a short now as price action is becoming evident now.

This could bounce back but highly unlikely.
It's okay guys, there's always another trade. I'm sorry i failed you on this one, i went with the more conventional method for it to work however price really caught a lot of people out.
Sentiment was with bulls as a lot of people were in the buy position.. Maybe the big traders toook advantage of this at this current time.

Until next time guys, play some retracement and get in on this downtrend. It will be a big one. There's still that opportunity to fly in like sparrows and take some of the feed. Be careful! :) Tight stop losses.

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This is what i see and it will look like price can't break that support after multiple attempts, price will reverse for a small ABC which will catch a lot of bulls before dropping. This is what I think.. Regardless, decent entry position.

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Some Target projections, at the moment i can still see some downward movement unless it stops here, making the 3rd wave (current time) fall short and therefore leading to an extended wave 5.
As you can see the targets are shown from the biggest waves down to it's smaller components to form a basis or idea of where we are heading.
To keep it simple, price will make a MINIMUM distance to the vertical red line due to the Head & Shoulders Pattern. Remember it is a MINIMUM, so we will use our projection tools to try to follow along and maximise our profits as much as possible.

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Some possible short zones for a move down to the 1.618 extension (Look above)

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One of these two spots i believe guys. We are done or almost done wiht this triangle i believe.

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Hold. Ride the trend guys. I'll provide further updates as we. Going to sleep now. Be back later.

hyryda

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hyryda