XAUUSD DownTrend Theory

Aug 23, 2023

I've identified a potential Elliott Impulse Wave down. As of this writing, if the analysis is correct, we're in Wave 3 right now. On the chart, I identify the previous Impulse wave up, followed by a corrective ABC Wave (Double Top). I drew a parallel channel down to help maintain the slope that has started to develop.

Aug 23, 2023

Note

As of this writing, price is currently at 1901. On a smaller chart, we just finished a 5 wave down, that ended at 1884. Once corrective mode is complete, I anticipate at least a 50% retracement, would would take us back up to 1931. If we break upwards of 1931, I expect 1941 and if we break 1941, we go to 1951.

Aug 24, 2023

Note

As of now, It looks like we are on track to hit 1931 within the next 24 - 48 hours. After a few days of consolidation, If we do not push above 1931, that would be the confirmation of the end of this corrective wave up, and further confirmation that we are in Wave 3 of the bigger move downward. The next safest trade is a sale back down to 1884.

Sep 12, 2023

Note

Re: My Aug 22 comment/analysis. We did hit 1931, 1941, and capped out at 1953, which was the top of the channel. We rejected the top of the channel, and As of now, it appears that we are making a smaller 5 wave down. My projection is that we are going to 1910 - 1906, but wave 5 could extend to 1900 - 1896. Overall, Down theory is still in play. Happy Trading.