Rising wedge and uncertainty

Apr 5, 2020

Uncertainty in BTC chart. Rising wedge, falling volume, doji candles with occasional stop hunting. Scuba diving Fear and Greed index. All that makes any kind of forecasting equal to fortune telling on coffee grounds now. What is clear, Monday should bring some big volatility, and we have a wide range from 5300 to 8550, both realistic to hit within couple of days. Also remember about CME futures gap at 8280-9060.

Stay healthy - stay at home

Resistance: 7170 - 7550 - 7800 - 8550
Support: 6420 - 6200 - 5870 - 5300

Some stats for the past days:
Fear & Greed index: 12 (<= 12 <= 14 <= 14 <= 12 <= 12)
BTC Dominance: 65.2% (<= 65.2 <= 65.5 <= 65.3 <= 64.8)
24h Volume: $109 billion (<= 120 <= 150 <= 130 <= 106 <= 116)

My previous BTC reviews (updated daily, so I don't publish many new ideas):

Apr 8, 2020

Comment

BTC still within recent uptrend, targeting 7800-8040 (or less possible breakout to 8555). Lower timeframes indicate potential pullback down to 8666 - 6800 support zone. The more time it grows, the higher are chances for pullback. SR level at 7170 still stays for me as a main indicator for the move direction. While candles close above it, it may grow. Once 4H candle close below, that will be a move down alert. And kind of a pre-alert would be closing below ~7277.

Resistance: 7550 - 7800 - 8000 - 8550
Support: 7170 - 6900 - 6666 - 6420

Apr 9, 2020

Comment

Whether it is a small bull flag or a huge bear flag, BTC should make some sharp move very soon. In general rising wedge is a bearish continuation patern, so classical technical analysis says we should expect dump here. But TA classics don't include such factors as Covid fear and BTC halving. So totally unexpectable.

Bullish breakout should take price to 7800-8040 (and less possible to 8555).
Bearish move should take it to 6855 - 6200 - 5800 - 5200 (dump within downtrend can easily break several support zones in one impulse move).

Resistance: 7550 - 7800 - 8040 - 8550
Support: 7170 - 6850 - 6666 - 6200 - 5800 - 5200

Apr 10, 2020

Comment

BTC rising wedge broken down. First support hit, but should touch 6775 as well. Lack of volume say whales didn't get enough liquidity yet. SR at ~6424 may give another bullish bounce. If fall lower, yesterday's forecast zones come into play.

P.S. Since I've mentioned classical TA - falling wedge has almost the same rules as triangles, so dump length should be more or less the same as flagpole - that takes BTC price to ~3k support =( I hope in this case Bitcoin won't follow classical TA.

Resistance: 7050 - 7170 - 7300
Support: 6850 - 6420 - 6200

Apr 16, 2020

Comment

Don't you love Bitcoin volatility? Its amazing! Didn't get 23$ to short zone yesterday, and fell almost to second target, which bounced price to 7k resistance today - 8% in one 8H candle. Although it is early to confirm reversal, at some exchanges that pump made higher high (above yesterday peak). So it gives a hope for next drop to make a new higher low. Nearest strong support at ~6760.

Stay healthy - stay at home

Resistance: 6985 - 7170 - 7250 - 7475
Support: 6420 - 6150 - 5860

Apr 18, 2020

Comment

Weekends often bring sharp moves to BTC chart. Not a rule, but tradition. Considering how volume drops, Bitcoin abide traditions and should pump or dump very soon. Bull pennant favor pump, but doesn't guarantee it, as in crypto most obvious patterns are often used against those who see them.

Pivot at 7050. While above targeting ~7300. If close below, will cause dump to nearest support zones.

Stay healthy - stay at home

Resistance: 7170 - 7255 - 7475 - 7800
Support: 6900 - 6775 - 6600 - 6420

Apr 19, 2020

Comment

Bitcoin broke out bull pennant (if only that was work day, CME gap would be closed), hit second "red" resistance zone marked on chart (today moved it higher to suit recent price action) and pulled back to the same level where it has started.

Pivot at 7050. Minor support at 7100. While above may continue building higher lows, but after latest moves 6900 seem to be "closer". Leave same SR zones below as yesterday.

Resistance: 7170 - 7255 - 7475 - 7800
Support: 6900 - 6775 - 6600 - 6420