Analysis techniques – Soybean Meal Futures (Dec 2025)

Analysis techniques – Soybean Meal Futures (Dec 2025)
Date: 03/10/2025 | Timeframe: D1 | Contract Code: ZMZ25

1. Trend Overview and Price Structure
Soybean meal (Dec 2025) closed at USD 279.3/ton (+0.14%) on Oct 3. After testing the 272.6 support (Fib 100%) successfully, prices rebounded. The structure suggests a recovery wave is forming, with near-term targets at 283.1 and 300.
The descending trendline from April remains intact, but a short-term rebound could extend if resistance at 283.1 – 289.5 is broken.

2. Key Technical Levels
Resistance: 283.1 – 289.5 – 300.0
Support: 272.6 – 265.0 – 260.0

3. Detailed Technical Analysis
Short-term trend: The bounce from 272.6 signals a recovery setup.
Trading volume: Bottom-fishing flows have returned, confirming strong reaction to support.
Wave structure: The bearish wave since July may have ended at Fib 100%, opening room for a corrective rally toward 289.5 – 300.
Confirmation signals: A close above 283.1 validates the rebound; failure below 272.6 risks further downside toward 265.0.

4. VNC View
In the short term, soybean meal is in a technical recovery after a deep sell-off. Medium term, abundant U.S. supply and South American crop outlook remain bearish drivers. The 300 level is critical: a breakout confirms a trend reversal, while failure keeps prices range-bound at 265 – 280.

5. Suggested Technical Strategies
Preferred Long Setup (short-term):
Entry: 276 – 278
TP: 289.5 – 300
SL: 272
Probability: 65%

Short Setup (failed rebound):
Entry: 289 – 290
TP: 272.6
SL: 296
Probability: 50%

6. Corporate Hedging Guidance
Livestock sector: May hedge feed costs around 276 – 278.
Exporters: Should sell partially at 289 – 300 to secure margins.
Processors: Stay neutral, add coverage only if prices sustain above 300.