Analysis techniques – Soybean Meal Futures (Dec 2025)

Analysis techniques – Soybean Meal Futures (Dec 2025)
Date: Oct 06, 2025 | Timeframe: D1 | Contract Code: ZMZ25

1. Trend Overview and Price Structure
December soybean meal futures edged down by 0.8 USD to 277.4 USD/ton (-0.29%) after rebounding from strong support at 272.6 — the 100% Fibonacci extension of the August–September decline.
The structure suggests a potential short-term corrective rebound, targeting 283.1 (Fib 61.8%) and possibly 300 USD if momentum builds.
Medium-term trend remains bearish, though the narrowing downside range hints at a short-term technical bottom formation.

2. Key Technical Levels
Resistance: 289.5 – 300.0 – 311.2
Support: 277.0 – 272.6 – 265.1

3. Detailed Technical Analysis

(1) Short-term Trend:
Rebound signals from 272.6 suggest potential upside toward 283 – 289.5, with a breakout above 283 confirming recovery momentum.
(2) Volume:
Slight uptick in volume during the rebound indicates renewed bottom-fishing activity.
(3) Wave Structure:
Likely completion of corrective wave C and start of a technical recovery phase (wave 1–2–3) targeting around 300.
(4) Confirmation Signals:
Close above 283 confirms recovery; drop below 272.6 invalidates the bullish setup and opens downside risk toward 265.1.

4. VNC View
Short Term: Technical rebound expected as meal prices are heavily discounted relative to soybeans and soyoil.
Medium Term: Supply-demand balance remains fragile — weaker crush margins and sluggish feed demand cap the upside.
Risks: Stronger USD and Argentine export competition may pressure U.S. meal prices.

5. Suggested Technical Strategies

Preferred Long Setup:
Entry: 276 – 278
TP: 289.5 – 300
SL: 272
Probability: 65%

Short Setup (resistance test):
Entry: 298 – 300
TP: 283 – 276
SL: 305
Probability: 40%

6. Corporate Hedging Guidance
Feed importers: Consider locking in purchases around 275–280 if prices hold above 272.
Oilseed crushers: Delay forward sales until prices approach 300 to secure better processing margins.