"Hindenburg's Omen" to predict a stock market crash."Hindenburg's Omen" to predict a stock market crash.
"Hindenburg's Omen" is a technical indicator in financial analysis designed to predict a potential significant decline or a stock market crash.
Here are the main things to remember about this indicator:
Definition and origin
Introduced by Jim Miekka in the 1990s.
Named after the Hindenburg airship disaster in 1937, symbolizing an unexpected disaster.
How it works
- Hindenburg's Omen is triggered when several conditions are met simultaneously on a stock market:
- A high number of stocks reaching both new highs and lows over 52 weeks (usually more than 2.2% of stocks).
- The number of new highs must not exceed twice the number of new lows.
- The stock index must be in an upward trend (positive 50-day or 10-week moving average).
-The McClellan Oscillator (sentiment indicator) should be negative.
Interpretation
-When these conditions are met, the Omen suggests underlying market instability and an increased risk of a significant decline.
-The signal remains active for 30 trading days.
Reliability
-The indicator has correctly signaled some historical crashes, such as the one in 1987.
-However, its reliability is questionable as it also produces many false signals.
Usage
-Generally used in conjunction with other forms of technical analysis to confirm sell signals.
Traders can use it to adjust their positions or as an alert for increased market monitoring.
It is important to note that, like any technical indicator, the Hindenburg Omen is not infallible and should be used with caution, in conjunction with other analytical tools.
In the following photos, a harmonic "BLACK SWAN" pattern was detected on the DOW JONES, announcing a stock market crash or a strong correction!
Dowjones
My crazy partner is Mr. Market!We are used to the fact that the world's most prominent investors are known for their outstanding deals, returns and stability of results over a long time horizon. Yes, all this is certainly a sign of excellence, but no investor has gained his popularity through books. The books he wrote.
This man created his writings back in the 1930s and 1940s, but they still inspire anyone who has taken the path of smart stock investing. You've probably guessed by now who we're talking about. It's the humble author of The Intelligent Investor and Warren Buffett's teacher, Benjamin Graham.
It's amazing that after many years, this book is still considered the bible of investing on the basis of fundamental analysis - Graham wrote such a thorough description of how a person investing in stocks should think. His insight into the market can be useful to anyone who is exposed to this chaotic environment.
To understand Graham's philosophy, imagine that the market is your business partner "Mr. Market." Every day he stops by your office to visit and offer you a deal on your mutual company stock. Sometimes he wants to buy your stock, sometimes he wants to sell his own. And each time he offers a price at random, relying only on his gut. When he panics and is afraid of everything, he wants to get rid of his shares. When he feels euphoric and blind faith in the future, he wants to buy your share. That's the kind of crazy partner you have. Why is he acting this way? According to Graham, this is the behavior of all investors who don't understand the real value of what they own. They jump from side to side and do it with the regularity of a "maniac" every day.
The task of the prudent investor is to understand the fundamental value of your business and just wait for another visit from the crazy Mr. Market. If he panics and offers to buy his stock at an extremely low price - take it and wish him luck. If he begs to sell him the stock and calls an unusually generous price - sell it and wish him luck.
Of course, after a while, it may turn out that Mr. Market was not bad at all and made a very profitable deal with you. But the fact is that on the long horizon of time his luck will be washed away by a series of stupid things he will inevitably do. As for you, rest assured that tomorrow you will meet another Mister. So, as Graham has taught us, is teaching us, and will continue to teach us - you just have to be ready for it. Understanding the fundamental value of the company, this meeting will bring you nothing but pleasure!
ALWAYS HAVE A LOOK ON DOW JONES TO UNDERSTAND GLOABL SCENARIOTo Anticipate the Nifty 50(INDIA)
Always analyze Dow jones, Nasdaq and SGX Nifty to have a clear cut view while trading
So that you can anticipate the point of reversal or sideways or trending market with extra benefit of 0.55% more than others who don't analyze these.
Nifty - BankNifty - USDINR - DOWDOW
Monthly Kijun has always been held since the Sub-Prime lows. If 25600-24800 gives way then 22700 would become a possible target
USD INR
Monthly has made a Bearish Harmonic AB=CD.
Weekly has done its minimum Dragon target, further sustaining above 74.75 would take it to 77 to complete its next Dragon target
Daily has also made a Bearish Harmonic AB=CD. Ideally sustaining below 74.25 would trigger a decline
BANK NIFTY
Monthly Kijun 28100-27400 crucial for upside.
Weekly has made a Bullish Harmonic Reciprocal AB=CD also, if that fails to hold then 26500 would become a possible target.
Daily has made a Bullish Harmonic Bat at FRI low
NIFTY
Monthly 1st support at FRI low if breached again then 10550 resistance 11200
Weekly 10850 needs to be held on closing basis else it opens for 10550 and then 9800. It also has a Bullish Reciprocal AB=CD at 10800-10750.
Daily has made a Bullish Harmonic Bat at FRI low.
For it to start reversing and moving up it needs to get above the following resistance lines 11050 / 11200 / 11500
Nifty - Did You Catch The Bottom at 12088 ?Super Excited to Start This Idea with Marathi Musical Piece - Ghan Othanbun "Yeti" by Legendary Singer - "Lata Mangeshkar Ji" which compliments by Blue Microphone "Yeti". Thanks for your precious time & I wish all of you a lovely & terrific week ahead.
Trading Strategy
Plan A –
Getting an opportunity close to 12200-12225 – Buy with strict stops below 12200 once it halts & stops in this range for Target – 12315-12340
Plan B –
If stops or halts in 12335 – 12350 zone & starts falling below 12335 – Put stops above 12350 for Targets 12200-12225 / Below 12180 strictly for 12110-12125
Plan C-
Getting an opportunity in 12080 -12100 zone (if 12080 is not broken downside) then look for upside Targets – 12225 / 12350 / 12400
Plan D –
Selling from Channel Tops close to 12375 – 12400 ( Be careful in this strategy) –it is only for extreme risk takers- Downside Target is 12100 - 12120 / 11930 - 11950 / 11800-11830 / Below 11800 – 11500 & 11100
USDINR Idea to Buy above 70.35-70.50 - What a bounce from 70.70 for 71.40's (click the idea)
Nifty Last Video Idea - "Stellium Effect - How I cracked the tops at 12295" (click the idea)
Dow Jones - Recession to set in?Dow Jones Index has made a double top and now threatening to fall below support.
Looking at the charts and the extent of rally we had for past 2 years...we may be in for a big correction and the correction we are seeing may just be the beginning of a long term bear market in US markets which may spread all over the world.
DAX looks its gonna breakdownGermany Stock Market Index DAX may be creating a Head and Shoulder pattern at the top. In order to break out and become bullish the Index has to strongly close above the Red line which it has been following for past months.
A weekly close below 10850 levels will confirm a bear market in DAX atleast for the near term.
Watch out for the contagion effect on our Indian markets.
Tough times ahead for Stock Markets?This chart looks at US 10 Year Bond Yield over last 30 years.
The yield was in a downtrend and in a falling channel for 30 years until now where it broke out above the channel. This may signal a near term top on Equity markets.
Purely educational not to be taken as advice