Understanding Impact of Bond Yield Differential on EquitiesOver the past decade the interest rate differential between US and India has been constantly going down. This has largely been due to stronger fiscal position of India and also gradual weakening of US Public Finances.
This has led to the Rupee becoming more stable against the Greenback, thereby reducing the rate of inflation in India.
Further, this has resulted in rising of equity markets over the last decade, and more importantly, the same setup is likely to stay or become better over the next two decades.
Hence long term retail investors in India can benefit from this by placing algo based orders to buy Index ETFs on dips and reduce their cost of buying and stay invested over the long term thereby getting benefit of power of compounding.
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Trading View Script:
USD (US Dollar)
Indian and US G Sec Yields and impact on USDINR and EquitiesBond Yields in India are anchored at 7% whereas in US the curve is inverted and interest rates are going to be 'higher for longer'.
Inspite of this Rupee is not getting hammerred, due to huge forex reserves and even the Indian stock market is fairly resilient, thanks to deluge of local money.
So going forward, a long term investor is likely to benefit if he/ she keeps buying the dip and just stay invested.
Nifty /Gold / USDINR - The Important Juncture Thanks from Bottom of my heart to "Sir John Murphy" for giving us such a wonderful book on Intermarket Analysis - "Profiting from Global Market Relationships"
Special thanks to my friend & follower who wrote - Think beyond Red & Green Colours. I would love to have your comment once again here in this idea as well.
Wish You all a Happy & Colorful Holi
This video idea talks about long term outlook on various asset classes such as
Gold
USDINR
Nifty
& get some clue for these asset classes.
Starting with last stock update - Indusind Bank which was published in Jan 2020 & suggested the fall from 1565 to 1050 - all targets were done & stock touched the channel bottom at 913 lows. Kindly check the idea below
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Indusind Bank - Never miss channel bottoms
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USDINR Ideas
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24th March 2019 Idea - USDINR - The Box Match at 69
10th Jan 2020 Idea - USDINR - The Next Path (Holding 70.35 - Expect 72.25 & 74.50
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Gold Futures
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17th Sep 2018 Idea - Plausible 1350-1375 Zone
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India Nifty
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29th Feb 2020 Idea - Nifty (India -Buy & Hold) - C-Wave or Corona Wave - What Next ?
12th Jan 2020 Idea - Nifty - Stellium Effect - How I cracked the top at 12295
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Thanks for checking the idea. Wishing you all once again a happy holi -
Algorithmic Derivation of Levels for USDINR : 12th March 20USDINR Algorithmic + Technical Derivation of Levels
Please feel free to comment and share ur findings
Nifty - BankNifty - USDINR - DOWDOW
Monthly Kijun has always been held since the Sub-Prime lows. If 25600-24800 gives way then 22700 would become a possible target
USD INR
Monthly has made a Bearish Harmonic AB=CD.
Weekly has done its minimum Dragon target, further sustaining above 74.75 would take it to 77 to complete its next Dragon target
Daily has also made a Bearish Harmonic AB=CD. Ideally sustaining below 74.25 would trigger a decline
BANK NIFTY
Monthly Kijun 28100-27400 crucial for upside.
Weekly has made a Bullish Harmonic Reciprocal AB=CD also, if that fails to hold then 26500 would become a possible target.
Daily has made a Bullish Harmonic Bat at FRI low
NIFTY
Monthly 1st support at FRI low if breached again then 10550 resistance 11200
Weekly 10850 needs to be held on closing basis else it opens for 10550 and then 9800. It also has a Bullish Reciprocal AB=CD at 10800-10750.
Daily has made a Bullish Harmonic Bat at FRI low.
For it to start reversing and moving up it needs to get above the following resistance lines 11050 / 11200 / 11500
Nifty - Did You Catch The Bottom at 12088 ?Super Excited to Start This Idea with Marathi Musical Piece - Ghan Othanbun "Yeti" by Legendary Singer - "Lata Mangeshkar Ji" which compliments by Blue Microphone "Yeti". Thanks for your precious time & I wish all of you a lovely & terrific week ahead.
Trading Strategy
Plan A –
Getting an opportunity close to 12200-12225 – Buy with strict stops below 12200 once it halts & stops in this range for Target – 12315-12340
Plan B –
If stops or halts in 12335 – 12350 zone & starts falling below 12335 – Put stops above 12350 for Targets 12200-12225 / Below 12180 strictly for 12110-12125
Plan C-
Getting an opportunity in 12080 -12100 zone (if 12080 is not broken downside) then look for upside Targets – 12225 / 12350 / 12400
Plan D –
Selling from Channel Tops close to 12375 – 12400 ( Be careful in this strategy) –it is only for extreme risk takers- Downside Target is 12100 - 12120 / 11930 - 11950 / 11800-11830 / Below 11800 – 11500 & 11100
USDINR Idea to Buy above 70.35-70.50 - What a bounce from 70.70 for 71.40's (click the idea)
Nifty Last Video Idea - "Stellium Effect - How I cracked the tops at 12295" (click the idea)
