USDINR - The Final TOP!USDINR - Has been moving between 90 - 92 forming marginally higher highs/ higher lows, in what is called an Ending Diagonal in Elliot Waves.
This should form a medium term top in USDINR and lead to a 4% if not 10% fall.
Reasons:
1. Crude spike cool off
2. Signs of recovery in economy leading to better GDP
These should lead to stocks doing better.
Strengthening currency and improved GDP number + corporate results should attract FII inflows, which should further fuel the stock market.
Too early, but the path looks clear!
USD (US Dollar)
XAUUSD – Sideways before major drop?Gold opened the week with a sharp correction, even as geopolitical tensions around Iran continue to escalate and oil prices push higher.
Interestingly, gold is not attracting strong safe-haven demand at the moment. Instead, the strong recovery in the USD is putting increasing pressure on the metal.
This suggests that the market may currently be pricing in dollar strength rather than geopolitical risk.
🔍 Technical Perspective
On the chart, price is currently trading inside a sideways range after the recent sell-off.
Key structure shows that gold could continue ranging inside this zone, potentially moving back toward the upper resistance area before the next major move.
Key levels to watch:
Resistance
5155 – 5190
Mid resistance
5113
Support
5037
📉 Bearish Scenario
If price revisits the upper resistance zone and fails to break higher, this could trigger a strong rejection move.
That rejection could lead to a liquidity sweep toward the 499x region, with potential continuation even lower if momentum accelerates.
This would confirm the idea of sideways accumulation before a major dump.
⚠️ Market Context
• USD strength is increasing
• Gold safe-haven demand remains weak
• Liquidity may still be building inside the range
Because of this, the market could trap late buyers near resistance before the next bearish expansion.
🔥 Trader question
Do you think gold will break higher from this range or is this just a setup for a deeper dump toward 499x?
Share your view below 👇
Gold Fell Despite War Risk —Is Inflation Now Driving the Market? This week gave traders one of the clearest contradictions in the market:
Geopolitical risk intensified, oil surged, and recession fears returned after a shockingly weak U.S. jobs report — yet gold still struggled to hold its recent momentum. Brent climbed above $92, the highest in almost two years, while U.S. payrolls reportedly fell by 92,000 in February and unemployment rose to 4.4%. At the same time, Treasury yields moved higher into the weekend.
That creates the real macro question for next week:
Is gold being capped because the market now fears inflation re-acceleration more than recession…
or is this just a temporary repricing before safe-haven demand takes control again?
Macro Narrative
Several macro forces dominated gold and USD this week:
• Middle East escalation pushed oil sharply higher and revived inflation concerns.
• U.S. jobs data weakened materially, pointing to slower growth and a softer labor backdrop.
• Despite that weak data, Treasury yields still rose, suggesting markets are worried that higher energy prices may delay Fed easing.
• Gold remained near elevated levels but was still on track for its first weekly decline in about five weeks as the stronger dollar and higher yields offset part of the geopolitical premium.
Key Macro Events
Middle East / Oil Shock
Brent ended the week near $92–93 after a historic surge tied to conflict escalation and disruption fears around the Strait of Hormuz. The Financial Times described this as oil’s highest level since 2023, with one of the biggest weekly jumps in decades.
U.S. Labor Market Shock
The Wall Street Journal recap highlighted a surprise February payroll loss of 92,000 versus expectations for a gain, with unemployment rising to 4.4%.
Rates / Yield Repricing
Even after weak jobs data, the 10-year Treasury yield finished the week around 4.13%, reflecting a market that is increasingly worried about sticky inflation rather than only slower growth.
Why Did Gold Not Explode Higher?
This is the most important lesson from this week.
At first glance, the backdrop looked bullish for gold:
war risk rising
growth fears increasing
labor data weakening
But gold does not only trade on fear.
Gold also trades against:
the U.S. dollar
real and nominal yields
Fed rate-cut expectations
inflation repricing
This week, the oil shock changed the macro balance. Higher oil prices can increase safe-haven demand, but they can also push inflation expectations higher. When traders think inflation may stay hot, they often reduce expectations for fast Fed cuts. That can keep yields elevated and support the dollar — both of which can cap gold in the short term.
In other words:
geopolitical risk supported gold… but higher yields and a firmer USD limited the upside.
That is why this week felt so contradictory.
Gold vs USD: The Real Macro Battle
For traders, next week is likely to remain a battle between two competing narratives:
Narrative 1: Growth slowdown / risk-off
Weak labor data and geopolitical stress should favor defensive assets like gold.
Narrative 2: Inflation shock / higher-for-longer rates
Surging oil may keep inflation risk elevated, which could support yields and the dollar.
This is why gold may not move in a clean, one-directional way.
Markets often do not reward the most obvious headline.
They reward the narrative that changes positioning.
Technical-Macro Read For Next Week
From a broader perspective, gold is still trading at historically elevated levels, and structural demand remains supported by continued central-bank buying trends. JPMorgan’s research expects central-bank gold purchases in 2026 to remain elevated versus pre-2022 norms, even if below the extreme pace of the last three years.
But in the short term, price action looks more like a rebalancing phase than a clean breakout.
This week’s message was clear:
The market is not pricing only fear.
It is pricing fear + inflation + delayed easing.
That combination usually creates wider two-way volatility in both gold and USD.
IF–THEN Scenarios For Next Week
IF oil stays elevated and yields keep rising
→ the USD may remain supported
→ gold could struggle to break higher immediately
→ the market may first rotate lower or consolidate before any larger expansion.
IF yields soften and the market leans harder into growth fears
→ USD strength may fade
→ gold could regain momentum as safe-haven demand becomes the dominant narrative.
Gold Outlook For Next Week
My read is that gold enters next week with a mixed but still constructive medium-term backdrop.
The bullish case is still alive because:
geopolitical risk remains high
growth data is weakening
structural gold demand remains supportive
But the short-term warning is equally important:
If oil-driven inflation fears continue dominating, the market may keep the dollar firm and yields elevated, which could prevent gold from trending cleanly higher right away.
So for next week, the most likely framework is not “gold must rally now.”
It is:
gold may stay volatile, with upside still possible, but only if the market stops rewarding the inflation-and-yields narrative.
Market Debate
Markets often move against the obvious story before the real trend begins.
This week, gold did not fully reward war headlines.
That tells us the market may be more focused on inflation persistence and rate repricing than pure fear.
So the key question for next week is:
Is gold preparing for a fresh upside expansion…
or will stronger USD and higher yields force one more liquidity sweep first?
Share your view below 👇
SHORT ON DXYFrom a technical standpoint, price is slowly approaching a daily supply zone — the last consolidation before the strong impulsive move down.
It took only 7 daily candles for price to drop aggressively from this area.
Now, it has taken 19 candles (almost 3x more) to climb back up.
This type of price behavior often signals seller strength. The downside move was impulsive and strong, while the move up appears corrective and slower — suggesting that sellers may still be in control.
With that in mind, I am currently short on the dollar, positioning from a technical perspective as price approaches this daily supply.
USDJPYIt looks like price completed its objective just before Friday’s news release, after which USD dropped sharply. From a technical perspective, structure has flipped from bullish to bearish. A clean correction to the upside into the 148.0 supply zone followed by a drop would make perfect sense. I’ll be watching to see if this develops into a swing move.
NZDJPY SELLSNZDJPY tapped the top of daily supply, aligning with the 88.0 region. While 4H structure is bullish, higher timeframes take priority. Price already flipped 15M structure, giving early bearish confirmation. Short makes sense here with a conservative stop above the daily high. And also if you look at the daily timeframe you can see how bears are in control, 3 times stronger.
Couple of downside targets so let's see.
USDJPY SELLS📉 USD/JPY – Bearish Trend With Clean Supply Rejection
As we can see, UJ is clearly in a bearish trend, confirmed by the red dots on the left chart, where price continues to create new lows.
Price recently retraced into a well-defined Supply zone around the 156.000 level. On the right chart, structure flipped after tapping the zone, giving a clean confirmation and creating a high-quality entry opportunity.
My first partials are placed at the 15-minute low, with the remaining targets marked by the red lines below.
XAU/USD – 15-Minute Timeframe Analysis (Short Bias)Market Overview
Following the latest round of China–U.S. trade negotiations, market sentiment has shifted toward a more risk-on environment, reducing demand for safe-haven assets such as gold. As optimism surrounding the talks strengthens the U.S. dollar, gold prices have continued to decline during the Asian and early European sessions.
Technical Outlook
On the 15-minute timeframe, XAU/USD maintains a clear short-term bearish structure, characterized by consecutive lower highs and lower lows. The pair is currently trading below key moving averages, reinforcing the prevailing downward momentum.
A potential retracement toward intraday resistance could present a favorable opportunity for short positions, provided that bearish price action confirms rejection at that level.
Key Resistance: 2360 – 2365 zone (previous support turned resistance)
Immediate Support: 2348 – 2350 zone
Extended Support Target: 2338 – 2340
USDINR Breakout: What next ?USDINR gave a 'Cup & Handle' breakout on 23/09/25 and currently in consolidation around 88.5658 levels. Buy on dip seems the way if the support of 88.2667 and hurdle/resistance/target of 89.0632.
The reward-to-risk ratio is approximately 1.66 : 1 ✅
📉 Risk (Stop Loss) = 0.2991
📈 Reward (Target) = 0.4974
📊 R:R Ratio = 1.66
DXY Ready for Next Bullish Leg After Liquidity SweepDollar Index maintaining bullish structure after recent BOS on 3H timeframe.Market formed consolidation phase early October before expansion.Buyers showing control pushing price towards 100.57 objective.Current retracement indicates liquidity grab before next bullish impulse.Demand zone 98.50–98.80 remains key area for continuation.Technical sentiment stays positive as long as price holds above 98.50.Fundamentally, dollar supported by strong U.S. data and cautious global tone favoring safe-haven demand.Momentum outlook remains bullish with potential continuation toward 100.50+ zone.
EUR/USD – Bearish Continuation in MotionEUR/USD continues to display a bearish market structure, reflecting persistent downside pressure as the euro struggles to maintain stability against the U.S. dollar. Recent price action shows a period of consolidation followed by a liquidity grab near short-term highs, indicating that buyers are losing strength and the market is positioning for a potential continuation of the decline. The broader market tone suggests that sentiment remains cautious, with traders favoring the dollar due to its resilience amid global uncertainty and steady U.S. economic performance. The pair’s inability to establish higher highs further confirms weakness in bullish momentum. This behavior often signals distribution, where institutional players offload long positions before another leg downward. Short-term movements could still present small corrective bounces as the market seeks liquidity, but overall conditions favor sellers. Unless a strong shift in macro sentiment occurs, EUR/USD is likely to maintain its downward trajectory, targeting lower levels as the bearish momentum unfolds and traders continue aligning with dollar strength.
EUR/USD is entering a decisive SMC zone – Big move loading...📊 EUR/USD H4 – SMC Mapping & Trading Plan
1. Market Structure
Main trend: bearish (after clear CHoCH and BOS).
Price has formed Equal Highs (EQH) → strong liquidity above.
Untested liquidity zone below (OBB) → expectation for price to sweep down.
2. Key Zones
Supply Zone (OBS + FVG):
1.18100 – 1.18200
This supply aligns with the Fair Value Gap.
Expecting price to retest this zone and reject downward.
Demand Zone (OBB):
1.16500 – 1.16650
Strong demand zone combined with liquidity resting below previous lows.
3. Trade Logic (SMC Flow)
Scenario 1 (Short Setup):
If price reaches the OBS + FVG (1.1810 – 1.1820) area,
Expect bearish reaction → Sell setup.
SL: above 1.1830.
TP: demand zone at 1.1650.
Scenario 2 (Long Setup after liquidity sweep):
If price taps into OBB (1.1650 – 1.1665) and holds,
Expect bullish reaction → Buy setup targeting 1.1750 – 1.1780.
SL: below 1.1630.
4. Market Psychology
Buy side: attempting to push higher but likely just a pullback to fill FVG and sweep liquidity above EQH.
Sell side: in control after BOS to the downside, targeting demand below.
Flip Zone: once supply is broken, it may flip into a new reaction zone (support).
✅ Summary Plan
Sell Zone: 1.1810 – 1.1820 → TP 1.1650
Buy Zone: 1.1650 – 1.1665 → TP 1.1750
BTC Crashes to 3-Week Low: A True Nerve Test for TradersHello fellow traders, Bitcoin has entered an extremely tense phase!
BTC has slipped below 109,000 USD, marking its lowest point in three weeks. The main pressure comes from the looming expiry of a massive 22-billion-USD options contract at the end of the month, which is driving strong short-term selling.
On the daily chart, prices keep getting rejected at the downtrend line and the Ichimoku cloud, confirming that bears still hold the upper hand.
The current scenario points to further downside, with key support zones at 104,000 USD (TP1) and 98,900 USD (TP2).
These are the critical “do-or-die” levels to watch closely — only if BTC manages to hold above them can we expect a recovery once the options-driven selling pressure eases.
In short: Bitcoin is at a make-or-break moment. Traders, keep your stops tight and stay alert!
BTCUSDT Set to Explode: Strong Uptrend Ahead!Hello everyone, today we’ll analyze an exciting opportunity with BTCUSDT, evaluating its strong uptrend and the potential to reach new highs.
BTCUSDT is trading on a strong upward trendline , with support levels at 110,500 and a high target of 123,700. The chart shows a breakout from an important resistance zone, with the price also positioned above the Ichimoku cloud , reinforcing the bullish trend.
Capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates have created a favorable environment for Bitcoin , making the possibility of reaching new highs even stronger.
With favorable technical signals and macroeconomic factors , BTCUSDT is likely to continue its strong upward movement. However, always check support levels to manage risk effectively.
Wishing you successful trading!
DOGE LANDS ON WALL STREET | PipGuardDOGE LANDS ON WALL STREET | PipGuard
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ANALYSIS
🔥 DOGE LANDS ON WALL STREET 🔥
Today could mark a historic moment : the REX-Osprey DOGE ETF ($DOJE) is set to debut in the United States under the 1940 Act, barring any last-minute objections from the SEC. This is the first regulated fund in the US linked to Dogecoin , a memecoin born as a joke that has now become an institutional financial product . The fund will not be 100% "spot" , but will use a regulated structure through an offshore subsidiary (Cayman Islands) and derivative instruments to track the price of DOGE. In recent days, large wallets ("whales") have accumulated over 280 million DOGE , and the price has already reacted with a double-digit rally in anticipation of the launch. However, institutional interest does not mean that Dogecoin has suddenly gained practical utility : its strength remains primarily in its narrative and community/meme effect . ETFs can attract flows and speculation, but long-term sustainability will depend on the market and investor perception. In any case, the arrival of DOJE marks the beginning of a new phase: memecoins are entering the arena of regulated products . Volatility? The only certainty.
DOGE/USD
TREND = BULLISH
BULLISH TARGET: FIRST 0.25650, SECOND 0.26000, THIRD 0.28800
BEARISH TARGET: FIRST 0.20500, SECOND 0.14400, THIRD 0.13000
EQUILIBRIUM: 0.30650
RESISTANCE: FAST 0.26007, SLOW 0.35300
SUPPORT: FAST 0.21500
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USD/JPY(20250910)Today's AnalysisMarket News:
U.S. employment data was significantly revised downward, with the number of jobs for the 12 months ending in March revised down by 911,000.
Technical Analysis:
Today's Buy/Sell Levels:
147.08
Support and Resistance Levels:
148.32
147.85
147.55
146.60
146.30
145.84
Trading Strategy:
On a breakout above 147.55, consider a buy entry, with the first target at 147.85.
On a breakout below 147.08, consider a sell entry, with the first target at 146.60
GBP/USD WHO'S IN CHARGE? | PipGuardGBP/USD WHO'S IN CHARGE? | PipGuard
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ANALYSIS
As you've seen, by popular demand, I'm trying to keep up with publications as well. In any case, I try to please everyone by covering and analyzing the pairs you request and need the most. It's a pleasure for me and a good reason to stay in touch. IF YOU WANT ANALYSIS ON SPECIFIC PAIRS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE MEDIUM-LONG TERM, WRITE IT IN THE COMMENTS.
It's interesting to think of two such important peoples, separated by an ocean but united by the same language. You might call them brothers, but in every family, there's always a power dynamic. The real question is: who the fuck is running the show now? This isn't just a financial battle; it's the echo of a historical rivalry. After the Americans gained their independence, the challenge with the British Empire never ended; it just moved to the markets.
Coming back to us, the technical situation is clear: the underlying trend is bullish . The Pound has pushed, with dignity, but now the market seems to need to catch its breath, to "release" some pressure. Let's not get screwed by the enthusiasm.
Here are the key levels to watch, no mincing words.
• Bullish targets: $1.3596 and $1.3590.
• Bearish targets (in case of a retracement or potential reversal): $1.34830 and, further down, $1.33330.
For short-term operations, the quick reference points are the resistance at $1.35530 and the support at $1.35060 .
The strategy is simple: wait. Wait for a confirmed break with a candle body closing above or below the levels I've indicated. That will be your signal.
At the time of publication, the gut feeling is BEARISH for the short term, but always remember that the overall context remains BULLISH . So, don't do stupid shit.
NEWS
✅ Bailey calls for calm : the BoE governor plays down the record rise in UK yields, pouring some cold water on imminent rate cuts.
✅ UK services inflation jumps 1.5x : the CPI accelerates to 3.8%, giving the Pound a slight boost.
GREETINGS
Remember to leave a GREETING 🚀 or a COMMENT — not because I need likes, but because every boost does more for morale than a pint at the pub.
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ETHEREUM | VISUAL ART with PipGuardETHEREUM | VISUAL ART with PipGuard
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ANALYSIS
Hello colleague, how are you?
Today I bring you a different kind of analysis, designed to be understood on a purely visual level. Because when we're in front of the chart, in the arena, in the cage... there's no room for bullshit or distractions. Here, we fight, and whoever comes in with a confused mind always ends up crushed.
Trading is a ruthless game, like a game of chess. And the winner isn't the one who knows a thousand abstract theories, but the one who has clear ideas, simple concepts, and concrete results.
Think about it: there are few pieces on the chessboard, but the possible moves reach 10^120. That means there are more combinations in a game of chess than stars in our galaxy. An insane number. Yet, the winner isn't the one who gets lost in complexities, but the one who knows how to move those few pieces well with cunning, craftiness, and awareness.
Trading is nothing but this: a continuous battle between you and the market. It moves its pawns, it provokes you, it deceives you, it tries to screw you over. And you? You must observe, wait for its move, analyze it, imagine its counter-move, and only then react.
The tools are few and clear: liquidity, support, resistance, trend.
You don't need an infinite arsenal: you need the basics, the ability to interpret, and the coolness to respond.
I dedicate most of my time to the charts, studying the market, building indicators that actually work instead of complicating life. Over the years, I've understood that behind every strategy, every concept, every approach, there's always a common denominator: simplicity .
So remember this well, colleague: you hold the power in your hands, the power to decide. The market has made its move... what about you? How will you respond?
NEWS
✅ Ethereum is shining again as “digital oil” with a +200% rise in five months, driven by massive institutional investments via ETFs, making Bitcoin pale in comparison!
✅ ETFs and whales are pumping Ethereum: bullish flows and strategic accumulations are putting directional pressure on the price; it looks like it's set for the next push.
SECRETS
🔓 Ethereum is transforming into ultra-sound money: thanks to EIP-1559 and the Merge, it now burns more ETH than it issues daily, with emissions crushed to 1,600 ETH/day, compared to the 13,000 under PoW.
🔓 A core dev's wallet was cleaned out by a malicious AI extension: a sophisticated attack that rips ETH directly from the platform's tech heart.
GREETINGS
Remember to leave a GREETING 🚀 or a COMMENT not because I need the likes, but because every boost does more for morale than a double espresso with cream.
Talk to you soon,
PipGuard
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USD/JPY(202509008Today's AnalysisMarket News:
Non-farm payroll growth fell significantly short of expectations, with June's data revised downward to negative territory, marking the first contraction since 2020. The unemployment rate hit a nearly four-year high.
Technical Analysis:
Today's buy/sell levels:
147.57
Support and resistance levels:
149.28
148.64
148.23
146.92
146.51
145.87
Trading Strategy:
On a breakout above 148.23, consider a buy entry, with the first target price being 148.64.
On a breakout below 147.57, consider a sell entry, with the first target price being 146.92
India 10-Year Yields and Rupee – A Long-Term SetupThe Bond Yield Story
India’s 10-year government bond yield has been moving inside a long contracting triangle for more than 20 years.
The highs are getting lower.
The lows are getting higher.
Yields are now sitting near the middle, around 6.5%.
This triangle will not last forever. When it breaks, the move can be strong and last for years.
If yields break down: Bond prices go up, borrowing gets cheaper.
If yields break up: Borrowing costs rise, pressure builds on companies and the government.
The Rupee Story
The USD/INR chart shows a very clear uptrend since 2011 .
Every dip has made a higher low.
The line of support is still holding.
Today the rupee is near ₹88 per USD .
This means the rupee has been slowly losing value for many years.
Weak rupee: Imports (oil, gold, electronics) become costlier → inflation risk.
But: Exporters like IT and pharma get some advantage.
Fiscal Pressure
As per a Reuters update on TradingView’s news feed, the GST Council has approved tax cuts on many consumer goods starting September 22, 2025 .
This could boost consumption.
But it may also lead to a large revenue shortfall for the government.
Implication for markets:
Bond yields: More government borrowing could push yields higher.
Rupee: Fiscal stress may keep INR weak against USD.
(source : in.tradingview.com
)
Big Picture
Bond yields are stuck inside a long contracting triangle – a breakout is coming.
The rupee has been in a steady downtrend – the pressure is clear.
Fiscal moves like GST tax cuts add extra risk , tilting towards higher yields and weaker INR.
In short: The charts show yields coiling and rupee sliding . Fundamentals only add more weight to this setup.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
Solana: The Scam or the Breakthrough? | PipGuardSolana: The Scam or the Breakthrough?
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ANALYSIS
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I know many of you appreciate my analyses, and I thank you for the support. As you know, I spend most of my time on the charts, looking for the best trading opportunities. To avoid missing updates, I recommend you turn on notifications!
Solana, with its ambiguous name, raises a question. Is it the “scam” that will ruin you or the “breakthrough” that will make you take the great leap? Regardless of preferences, what matters is the profit potential.
The Trend to Watch
Solana's dominant trend is clearly bullish. Our focus must remain on growth, but without underestimating possible downside scenarios.
Currently, the price is going through a bullish accumulation phase. There's liquidity to be filled, and we need to keep an eye on two critical levels very close to $210 . This is our support and resistance zone.
Below $210, the risk of a downward correction increases.
Above $210, the bullish trend strengthens.
A possible retracement could push the price into the $175-$160 zone. Here, the market will decide whether to continue falling or resume its upward run.
If Solana breaks above $210 without a retracement, the bullish target remains the $260 zone.
In short, the key levels:
Bullish target: $260
Bearish target: $175-$160
Support/Resistance zone: $210
NEWS
✅ Galaxy Digital, Multicoin, and Jump Crypto are aiming for a $1 billion treasury in Solana, the largest ever seen in the sector.
✅ Sharps Technology soars 70% after raising $400 million for a treasury entirely in Solana, featuring giants like Pantera and ParaFi.
SECRETS
🔓 The return of the Coinbase hacker: a wallet linked to the $300M mega-heist on Coinbase is back in action, buying 38,126 SOL ($8M) around $209.
🔓 The dark side of meme-tokens: on the Solana network, the Kanye West token burned $75M in a week, crashing by 80%. Those who believed in it are now left with worthless paper.
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Remember to leave a GREETING 🚀 or a COMMENT — not because I really need it, but because it's cool to support the one who brings you these bombshells while you're having your coffee.
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