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A-trend

Technical Analysis: EURUSD buyers need ECB’s support to keep conEURUSD remains above the top line of a three-month-long bullish after the Fed-inspired volatility. The nearly overbought RSI (14), however, suggests that the bulls are running out of steam of late. That said, the 100.0% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of the pair’s moves between November 11, 2022, and January 06, 2023, close to 1.1045, appears immediate hurdle for the bulls to cross to keep the reins. Following that, a run-up toward the late March 2022 high near 1.1185 can’t be ruled out. It should be noted that the 1.1100 round figure may offer an intermediate halt during the likely run-up. It should be noted, however, that the quote’s pullback moves remain elusive unless EURUSD remains beyond the stated channel’s top-line, close to 1.0970. Following that, 78.6% and 61.8% FE levels, respectively near 1.0930 and 1.0830 will precede the 21-EMA surrounding 1.0800 to restrict the short-term downside of the pair. Also acting as nearby key support is an upward-sloping trend line from early November 2022, around 1.0780 at the latest. In a case where the pair breaks the stated trend line support, its drop to the aforementioned bullish channel’s lower line and then to January’s low, respectively near 1.0610 and 1.0480, becomes imminent. Though, the bears are less likely to have a smooth road unless breaking the 1.0480 level. To conclude, the EURUSD stays firmer ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) announcements but the upside seems losing momentum and hence a pullback could be witnessed if the ECB disappoints Euro bulls. Even so, the trend reversal is far from sight.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD stays pressured towards 0.6980-75 support confluenceDespite the latest pause, AUDUSD extends the week-start pullback from a nine-month high as the economic calendar starts spreading key releases. In doing so, the Aussie pair stays inside the monthly bullish channel. That said, the RSI retreat from overbought territory joins the downbeat MACD signals to also tease bears. Even so, a convergence of the stated channel support line and the 100-SMA highlights the 0.6980-75 zone as the key for the bear’s entry. Following that, a seven-week-old horizontal support zone near 0.6880 could challenge the quote’s further downside before placing the bear in the driver’s seat. Meanwhile, multiple highs marked around 0.7130 and the recent peak surrounding 0.7150 could challenge AUDUSD bulls. Also acting as an immediate upside hurdle is the aforementioned bullish channel’s top line, close to 0.7170 at the latest. In a case where the Aussie pair remains firmer past 0.7170, the 0.7200 round figure and May 2022 high surrounding 0.7285 could gain the buyer’s attention. Overall, AUDUSD slips from the bull’s radar but the bears need confirmation before taking control.
by MTradingGlobal
USDCAD bears eye 1.3250 strong support on BoC dayUSDCAD sellers hold the reins for the sixth consecutive week so far as traders await the Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate decision on Wednesday. That said, the BoC’s likely 0.25% rate hike is expected to join the bearish MACD signals and favor the pair bears. However, a convergence of an upward-sloping trend line from June 2022 and a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the quote’s June-October 2022 upside, near 1.3250, appears a tough nut to crack for the sellers. Adding strength to the stated support is the RSI conditions suggesting a recent weakness in downside momentum. Even if the quote breaks the 1.3250 support, the 200-DMA level surrounding 1.3180 could act as the last defense of the Loonie pair buyers. Alternatively, a surprise disappointment from the BoC, either with or without the rate lifts, could trigger the much-awaited USDCAD rebound. In that case, the 100-DMA and previous support line from September 2022, close to 1.3500-10, will be a strong hurdle to watch for the bull’s entry. Following that, a run-up towards the previous monthly high near 1.3700 can’t be ruled out. It should be observed that the pair’s successful rise beyond the 1.3700 resistance can witness multiple challenges between 1.3810 and 1.3830, a break of which could direct buyers towards the previous yearly top marked in October around 1.3975. To sum up, USDCAD is likely to remain bearish unless the BoC offers any negative surprises. However, the downside room is limited.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD bulls need to cross 1.2450 to keep the reinsGBPUSD regains upside momentum, after a soft start to the week, as the Cable traders await the UK PMIs for January. It’s worth noting that the bullish MACD signals favor the latest upside but the RSI is nearly overbought, which in turn highlights the six-week-old horizontal resistance area surrounding 1.2450. Should the firmer British activity data allow the quote to cross the 1.2450 hurdle, the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of its November 2022 to January 2023 moves, near 1.2650, will be in focus. It’s worth noting that the May 2022 peak surrounding 1.2660 could challenge the pair buyers afterward. Alternatively, the 1.2300 and the 1.2200 round figures could entertain the GBPUSD sellers during the pair’s pullback. However, the 1.2000 psychological magnet can restrict the Cable pair’s further downside. In a case where the quote remains weak past 1.2000, the 100-EMA level surrounding 1.1980 and the monthly low of 1.1840 will gain the market’s attention as the last defense of the pair buyers. Overall, GBPUSD remains on the buyer’s radar ahead of the key UK data but the upside room appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY is ready to refresh multi-month lowEven if the USDJPY pair posted the biggest weekly gains in seven in the last, it remains inside a bearish channel. Additionally keeping the Yen pair sellers hopeful is the quote’s repeated failures to cross the 100-SMA. That said, the quote currently drops towards a one-week-old support line, close to 128.00. However, the May 2022 low will join the lower line of a five-week-old descending trend channel, near 126.35-30, to pose as a tough nut to crack for the bears. In a case where the pair remains bearish past 126.30, the odds of witnessing a slump toward the 120.00 psychological magnet can’t be ruled out. Alternatively, USDJPY can witness short-term buying in case of a successful upside break of the 100-SMA, close to 130.75. Following that, the top line of the stated bearish channel, around 132.50, will be important for the Yen pair buyers to watch. It should be noted that the 200-SMA level surrounding 132.85 and the 133.00 round figure act as additional upside filters before giving control to the bulls. Hence, USDJPY bears are in the driver’s seat even if the 126.35-30 support confluence challenges further downside.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD has bumpy road to north even as bulls keep the reinsA two-month-old ascending trend channel backs the EURUSD pair’s upside bias, despite multiple failures to cross the 1.0880 horizontal hurdle in the last week. That said, the 50-SMA and the 100-SMA restrict immediate downside around 1.0790 and 1.0700 respectively. Following that, the stated bullish channel could be at the test and hence the 1.0575 support will gain major attention. Should the quote drops below 1.0575, a slump toward the monthly low near 1.0480 appear imminent while any further downside won’t hesitate to challenge the lows marked during November. Meanwhile, a successful break of the one-week-old horizontal resistance near 1.0880 isn’t an invitation for the bulls as the top line of the aforementioned channel, close to 1.0910, will act as the last defense of the EURUSD bears. In a case where the pair rises past 1.0910, it could quickly rise to the 1.1000 round figure. It’s worth noting that January 2022 low and the late March 2022 high, respectively around 1.1125 and 1.1185, might probe the pair buyers before giving them full control. Overall, EURUSD stays inside a bullish chart formation and the oscillators are positive too. However, the upside momentum lacks acceptance and hence buyers should remain cautious.
by MTradingGlobal
NIFTY 50 Trend analysis - Lower Low, Lower Highlower highs and lower lows can be seen in downtrends When a price makes a new low breaking the previous low while not Breaking the recent reversal high, it results in a “Lower Low, Lower High” formation. The structure represents reversals that are being used to exit long positions. Trend Analysis- Lower High - 18141 level may be trend changer for nifty on weekely basis if it is breakout happens we might to see 18265 these is december month high for nifty Lower Low - Nifty forming lower high lower low sequence these negative scenario for trend if breached 17760 previous week low nifty may be fall more downside
NSE:NIFTY
by nikhilkashid1994
Time and Growth percentage of different waves.Hello Traders! We recently saw the market analysis of Nifty50 using Elliot wave theory. Elliot wave theory can be very accurate when it comes to the market. You can get the analysis wrong, but if you apply the theory correctly, it can help you in more ways than one . 1. As we see on the chart, Wave 1 and Wave 3 were completed in 62 days each . This is not just a coincidence but an actual observation in Elliot Waves where impulsive waves tend to be in equality or in ratio when it comes to time taken to complete each wave. Since, Wave 1 and Wave 3 took 62 days each, it's very probable that Wave 5 will also take 62 days to complete, i.e., 16th March 2023. Now, the question might be, how does this help? As traders, we now know that we have to look for long positions till 16th March 2023 . We know the trend. Trading against the trend is fun, but only when you have enough to lose a little. We also know that the downtrend will begin after 16th March 2023 and hence, we will look for shorting positions thereon. Isn't the date a bit too convenient? Why is Mid-March so hyped ? 2. Let's come to Growth percentage. The market grew around 18% in Wave 1 and around 12% in Wave 3 . This gives us a ratio of 1.5 and that gives us a value of around 8% for Wave 5 . The Nifty50 market will grow 8% which gives us a target of 19200-19300 for Wave 5, again . When dealing with Elliot Waves, we put the most number of 'coincidences' possible in one single bag and then go for the bag. Just too many reasons to expect a good, nice fall from 19200-19300 for a very trending market. 3. Previous analysis attached. Do refer if needed. The world moves in harmony. And so do the markets. All they need is an observer. Be one. Happy observing! Profits, Market's Mechanic.
NSE:NIFTY
by UnknownUnicorn27677748
2
EURUSD portrays bullish trend-widening formationEURUSD grinds higher around the seven-month top inside a rising megaphone chart pattern on the daily formation. In addition to the bullish chart pattern, the upbeat RSI and bullish MACD signals also keep buyers hopeful. That said, May 2022’s peak surrounding 1.0786 and 1.0800 are likely immediate targets for the bulls. However, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s March-September downside, near 1.0835, could challenge the upside momentum afterward. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 1.0835, the stated megaphone’s top line, close to 1.0960, should lure the optimists. On the contrary, the one-month-old descending previous resistance line around 1.0700 restricts the short-term downside of the EURUSD pair. Following that, a pullback towards the aforementioned bullish pattern’s support line, adjacent to 1.0550, will be important to watch for sellers. Should the quote drops below 1.0550, a downward trajectory towards the 50-DMA and the 200-DMA, respectively near 1.0460 and 1.0300, can’t be ruled out. It’s worth noting that the quote’s weakness past 1.0300 could welcome bears with open hands. To sum up, EURUSD is likely to remain firmer but the road to the north is bumpy and long.
by MTradingGlobal