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AB=CD

Nifty Analysis II : Harmonic Ratios and The Price ActionWhenever Raman, one of my best friend, sits in front of Television and hears a Technical analyst he could not stop himself saying," ho sakta hai wahan tak chala jaye..neeche bhee aa sakta hai..oopar bhee ja sakta hai..bc..inko kush bhee pata nahi aur hame bevakoof bana rahe hain". The psychological setup of people like him is so rigid that we can never convince them that TA is all about probabilities. At present we are in a similar situation, where index is approaching 10036 and many traders are waiting for the index to touch 10000 mark for either banking their profit or sell short. But why 10036 is so important? yes, it is 1:1 price extension taken from Feb.2016 lows. In Harmonic patterns, 100% extension (AB=CD) is said to be of great importance. There are full fledged chapters on AB=CD. The basic structure of the pattern is that AB and CD legs should be similar in price as well as time..well !! you can say approximately if not precisely. So that's it? No. The twist is that this pattern acts as a basic building block of many other harmonic patterns and there are many variation to it. Depending on several factors (can't discuss in this post), CD leg can extend much greater than AB -- 1.272, 1.618 or higher (read Larry Pesavento). We will try to discuss some parameters here while applying them on NiftyWeekly chart. Parameter 1: No. of bars Ideally AB=CD has same no. of bars in both the legs. But if CD has more no. of bars, call it a weaker leg and has greater chances of ending up as 1:1 Parameter 2 :Range of Bars The beginning of CD is the most important event. If it begins with a wide range bar or a gap, consider it at least 1:1 and chances of extending further are great. The more number of wide range bars in this leg, the better. Parameter 3: Slope of the Legs The higher the better. If CD leg is steeper than AB, there are better chances of extension rather than 1:1 Taking these parameters into consideration we can see that in NiftyIndex the CD leg has not been as enthusiastic as AB (See notes on chart). 1) No. of bars in CD are more than AB. 2) None of the bar ranges 4% (except one). The Average Range of wide range bars in CD is approx. 2.5%, whereas it is 4% or higher in AB. Notice that the range declined after 9000 mark, whereas it should have increased at break above this level. 3) Yes, slope is one parameter where CD can compete with AB. But CD does not have better slope than AB. On the basis of above discussion, we can say that there are greater chances of CD = AB. Remember that there are no better indicators than time and price action. So better follow them rather than any pattern. Dun be as rigid as Raman. Hit like / comment if you think these observation can be useful. Trade safe, stay healthy. Best Regards Bravetotrade
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by Bravetotrade
2
TataSteel : How Crazy I'm !!Another chapter in TataSteel Love Story :) Let's keep aside Tatasteel for a moment. Consider this as some very random chart of unknown scrip X, we have perfect ABCD pattern finish & even if you do with Fibs there will be very good fib formations around our expected reversal zone, RSI being oversold another reason in kitty. Usually to take a trade we look at these reasons only & then place trade when all gets valid, so I'm applying same things which are considered for random,unknown X scrip over Tatasteel here. Not an iota of change here. Why I need to post Tatasteel knowing its failure & work for Me ? i) For whatever random scrip, we apply same trade plan over n over. That's what discipline is known for ( I stopped trading F&O of tatasteel few years back, knowing My luck with it but posting to show that plan remains same forever) ii) For some scrips, some setups will never work, You need complete alternate approach - Yes it is ! ( I don't want to try something over Tatasteel, so left as it is ) iii) An alternate approach on same scrip shows Buy on Tatasteel ( Every price tick has Buyer & Seller, so I can agree with other setups 100% but can't use your trade plan bcos its not My plan, discipline again ) iv) Reason behind posting knowings its failure ? ( I have no shame in saying or sharing the info that My trades fail on Tatasteel, Everyone needs to understand failure is part of trading no matter how good you are & I know I'm not 90% or 100% winner, so I'm not ashamed of sharing failed trades, what matters is whether I followed the plan ). Here ABCD & RSI , yes I did as per the rules, so its Good trade irrespective of outcome. I believe there are few take away points from this post, Thank you ! InsiderB
NSE:TATASTEELShort
by InsiderB
4
Nifty : Mix n Match Combo'sThere is an ABCD, there is a triangle formation in development, one potential Double top which is evolving within triangle.. yea... We have various pattern styles in single chart of Nifty. Versatility in one word. We have good triangle formation, most of you might have found earlier itself & we are expecting a false breakout on the upper trendline with Double top to move down later in the day or 2mrw. WHY ?! Whenever there is less volatility, big funds gets active bcos that's the time they can do stop hunting bcos for positionals stops will be widers, you can't move market till those zones. but in less volatile days, stop loss orders will be crowded in specific zones & bcos of scalping trades it will be within few points reach, so just a single wick takes out the stops on less volatile days. If I'm not wrong, I think I didn't post that ABCD to community, anyway even if its after move, will be helpful for your learning how it worked , time n again proved. Nifty made a move while I'm writing the description, not a prob , posting as it is, if you are scalping just take care where your stop orders are placed. Happy Trading !
NSE:NIFTY
by InsiderB
12
Nifty : No Sweetening it... Raw & Live !Any of you missed the rants ? Well,It has been 6 months or so, since I went on for that, actually from last week I was about to do that but postponed it as, why should I do ?! Now it brewed up & filled the cup, brimming to overflow...I'm not gonna mince My words, there is no sweetening it anymore... All Goes Raw n Live... Why You are Trading ? To make money, obviously. Don't ask Me silly things - Yeah, I read your mind. But why you never cared about your bleeding ? You keep on taking trades without a tradeplan and the height of it, Trading without a stoploss. Seriously ? Consider you are in some business ( a shop), someone comes and says " Hey, stock this up, it will go off shelves as hot cakes " without any second thoughts will you invest & buy all those ? Without even checking whether people will buy that product ?? To go more, if the product remains in your shelves for many days & product is deteriorating losing its value, making a dent on your capital invested in the product, will you still keep that waiting for consumers ? Won't you throw out, cut your losses & stock something else which consumers Buy ? That's what stoploss exit is... Know when you need to Get Out, No matter what, if stops hit, get out. Are you Trader or Investor ? Decide based on what you want to Be... There is great difference between both of them. An investor averages portfolio whenever there is considerable price drop, after considering the real potential of the stock. A Trader never averages positions after a certain point(stops), its like the product turned bad & you are stocking that more n more, it gives foul smell only. If its bad trading decision, just accept , smile at it and move on... There is not even a need to explain yourself bcos of this, that n those it hit My stops. It's just a trade which hit your stops, as simple as that. Only if you have that mindset, you will sit and analyze why it hit stops any tweaks needed to your trade plan. But if you were giving Reasons to yourself like Trump had burger,Trump tweeted, Trump sneezed... oh man ! that's terribly wrong. I'm New, what should I do ? I take trades only based on Your Posts... Thats very sweet line which makes Me happy, but will it make Money for you ?! . Dear friend, What if I stop posting ? How you trade daily ? & if InsiderB posts a setup it will reach targets with No questions being asked just bcos InsiderB posted ?! I have My own part of losing trades, even now if you check My profile you can find the trades which hits stoploss. I never claimed My Setups win everytime, its Just that I keep the probability of winner on higher side to make money. You know well, I rarely care about following up the trades, but when stops hit, accept & Move on... There is no fiddling with it. We will have our own losing trades, a bad phase, accept & smile, Move on...That's what will make you as better trader accepting loss, that needs Guts & if you start accepting failures, it will open up why failures happen & you tend to analyze, the process of better trader begins when you accept failures. Don't try to sweeten that with reasons & console yourself. So, Next time whoever makes a post - Check with your tradeplan first, Realize what you stand to lose, What is your stops, then look for how much potential profits are, then take Trade ! Never do that questionnaire in reverse. You will lose, Apparently ! Lot of Newbie's will be like I'm against you... No Dear :) This isn't against anyone here. These days it became mandatory to write disclaimer for everything, A Disclaimer itself needs Disclaimer - No wonder these days... Anyway next time you take a Trade, Check what your trade setup says & Whats Your Risk. You will Win... Mic Dropped. InsiderB
NSE:NIFTYShort
by InsiderB
25
Nifty : Some Gyan with Gann So where to begin with ?! Let's go with analysis first then we will touch up on Gann. Why I'm aiming the zone of Nifty 9570's, as mentioned in previous post I can see potential ABCD pattern , though its bull run it may trigger downmove a smaller relief rally of 100 points. Apparently, we are aiming at 9750's zone for this bull run target zone, if My guess is right true & to this profile name, an Insider info, Institutions will slowly build up their short positions from 9600's to 10000's, one of the peers told, sounded logical. But as I always say, News or Rumour doesn't matter, we trust & trade charts only and just have the info in back of your mind. Thats it ! There is strong misconception that Gann is Money Generator. Guys, Gann has its own pro's n cons its not complete money maker and makes money forever or give 100% or 90% winners without any loss. Actually I saw few websites claiming 90% n 100% winner with Gann, I was quite surprised & how people get lured to them. Personally, I'm yet to come across one who makes over 75% or 80% winners consistently. So Gann is not holy grail. But when used properly it will generate money :) But Gann is simplest tool which can be efficiently used in Intraday and when the stock gets single directional move, profits will follow. Either a range or swing will hit both stops and target whichever swing goes first is the result. I want to drive home just 3 points, i) Gann not Holy Grail ii) Simplest tool for Intraday, only Intraday but Gann suggested to use it for long term analysis ( weeks or months ) iii) Even Gann time analysis have own success n failure rate & there is no 90% or 100% win rate Disclaimer : I'm not giving the gyan, I borrow from Gann & sharing the Gyan. Should I continue recent setups I'm posting with Gann or should I get back to old style ? What you Guys love to see ? Drop in your opinions, both on the content above & on posts :)
NSE:NIFTYLong
by InsiderB
57
Nifty : ABCD..ABCD..More of ABCD !Yep, ABCD's everywhere you go, repetitively thats why Kindergarten Admission confirmed & on lighter note some people maturity level is also upto KG levels only, trying to nag others & to pick up fight. Well, I'm supercool now, than ever :) Expecting Bat formation on hourly, keeping in view of our 9k fill, this needs to fail, probably a small short covering can happen around ABCD completion zone in Nifty 9070's zone. But if Nifty gets in Bear mood today,it will turn ruthless & filling all the gaps to the down. Just My intuition that its not in mood today, Nifty will get ruthless on its own time & preferences. So mostly, that retracement pullback will happen then a downside move to complete the bat pattern. Go down on time frames to find potential trade chances. You know friends, Most of time I won't give stops & targets, Learning on own is best tutor ever. Buddy's, if you have counter views feel free to drop a line below, I would love to have healthy discussions, bcos knowledge sharing is best thing happened to human race. For that one dear buddy who made futile attempt to nag with kindergarten sarcasm, Don't be so afraid of Me to oppose My views right in My post, I wud love to see you, Rightnow is the time bcos I'm supercool than ever :)
NSE:NIFTYShort
by InsiderB
34
Nifty : Aaluma Doluma Aisalakadi Maluma !Happy Guys & I don't know what to give as title, so gave a song title :) Getting Back to analysis, we drew ABCD yesterday, there can be more reasons coming up today for upside move. For example, Am expecting Double Bottom on 15mins time frame but will see whether it happens. I hope Nifty, after taking support around 9130's zone we may get move up till 9170's zone. Let's see how this ABCD pattern completion works for Nifty, a gap up ? Hmm possible.. ! Last minute add, I forgot whom but someone mentioned that its at 61.8% through the zone of 9130's Nifty, anyway thanks to that person for providing input :) Once Again Guys, Thank You So Much... Love you all.. Have a Wonderful Trading Day :) Let's Celebrate Together : rachaelsbooks.files.wordpress.com Google "aaluma doluma" for full song ;)
NSE:NIFTYLong
by InsiderB
4
ABCD Pattern - Educational series 1Hi All , I'm just sharing info on pattern : ABCD pattern where price moves down from A to point B than rises to point C and again falls to point D , AT point D we can look out for potential reversal . 1)Lets say AB is down leg , And BC is retracement which is 0.618 or 0.786 of AB i.e Length or height of BC = ( 0.618 or 0.786 ) x length of AB 2) After BC leg there is another leg down CD which is 1.27 or 1.618 of BC i.e Length or height of CD = (1.27 or 1.618 ) x length of BC Than after all these mathematics we can lookout for Point D as potential reversal zone (short form PRZ) i.e since in the above we consider AB and CD as down move , than at point D we should be looking for buying opportunity . RULES : 1)Wait for buying signal , Just that 1.27 extension is complete doesn't mean its a buy it can extend to 1.618 also. 2) Approximate values may work i.e instead of 0.61 , it can be 0.59 or 0.63 but it should be any thing like 0.41 Finally Remember the ratios : BC= 0.61 or 0.786 (AB) CD = 1.27 or 1.618 (BC) Point D is potential reversal zone
NSE:NIFTY
by neneram
2