NIFTY ends the week on a high note at 16705NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -27-08-21
IN SUMMARY
O / H / L / C
16642.55 / 16722.05 / 16565.7 / 16705.2
H-L = 157 points
VIX 13.41 / -0.96%
FII DII: +868 Crores
Likely open: Positive but may get sold into and then recovery is likely.
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
NIFTY not only ended the day but also the week at a record high of 16705.2.
It has made a higher high, highest close but with a lower high.
After a flat sort of opening, it was sold in to and then rose sharply and after clearing 16650, it kept climbing gradually through the day.
On the daily as well as the weekly charts, NIFTY has formed nice bullish candles rejecting the lower levels around 16550-600.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
The Weight Lifters
TCS 09
LT 09
BAJAJ FINSERV 07
SBI LIFE 06
HDFC 05
TOTAL 36
The Draggers
INFOSYS 12
HDFC BANK 05
RELIANCE 02
NESTLE 02
M&M 01
TOTAL 19
Lifter - Draggers = +17
The above indicates that a larger base of scrips in the NIFTY family helped it pass the ATH level and close also at a new ATH.
POSITIVES
NIFTY ended the day as well as the week at a new ATH and above 16700.
DIIs have bought significantly at ATH which is a big plus indicating that there is good upside potential in-store in the coming weeks/months.
VIX has cooled down.
39/50 scrips ended in the green.
MARUTI which had been falling consistently ended in a minor positive. This could have a sentimental impact on the other sectoral scrips as well.
NEGATIVES
INFOSYS is showing signs of fatigue in the short term.
RELIANCE as well appears to be losing momentum as it approaches the resistance area around 2250.
BANK NIFTY continues to underperform.
TRADING RANGE FOR W/B 30-8-21
The Nifty baseline moves up to 16500-550. The resistances are not known for now.
BANK NIFTY support base also slides to 35000-35200 and resistance at 35800-36000-36200.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
The new SEBI regulations re no leverage come into force from 01 Sep and this could have an impact on Options pricing as more traders may switch to Options from EQUITY intraday trading as the margin benefit gets reduced.
UPSTOX has delayed intraday EQ profit credit from T+1 days to T+2 days to prevent a potential margin shortfall and resultant penalty. If others also follow suit, this could create more pressure on the intraday EQ-only traders to move to Options.
Even when NIFTY is at a new ATH, several scrips look beaten down and far from their ATH. This could be a double-edged sword for the scrips as well as for NIFTY.
The key to further upside in NIFTY is held by RELIANCE, HDFC twins, and BANK NIFTY, which has been under pressure for a long time.
What do you feel?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
29-8-21
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
