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Chamanlal Setia Exports Ltd (CLSEL)Chamanlal Setia Exports Ltd (CLSEL) Bullish on this stock. Even with so much of panic selling in the overall market Volume on the bearish candles are not so great. Stock is in the uptrend. Forming Hammer candle near 55 SMA level which is also 0.382% level of Fibonacci retracement which might be a sign of bounce back. Target 1: 135 Target 2: 140 SL for a low-risk trader:- Just below the hammer candle i.e 124 SL for a risky trader:- Below the trend line i.e near 119 Disclaimer:- This is not any buy or sell recommendation, it is just for educational purpose. Take any call for buy or sell call only after consulting with your financial expert. Let's learn together and keep growing.
NSE:CLSELLong
by TradingWithVerma
5
Data Driven Analysis of Indices for the week & year ending 31-12DATA DRIVEN ANALYSIS OF NIFTY & BANK NIFTY FOR THE WEEK ENDING 31-12-21 This is a new weekly post/series where I will briefly capture the key highlights of the 2 leading indices. This post is supported by a video that takes you through the details of how I have arrived at the analysis. I encourage you to view the video as well since not everything can be captured in a document form. I hope that this effort would help the readers and viewers to get a crisp idea about what happened in the markets over a period of one week. Important - Nifty as well as Bank Nifty have ended the week on a positive note, however, this positivity comes with increased number of Covid cases in India and also overseas. I am in no way making an attempt to create panic, but I will still be cautious as the markets have sold-off in a big way for no obvious reason - for example on 20-12-21 when Nifty hit a low of 16410. In my view, a weekly close above 17625-50 is when things may seem to be stable. BANK NIFTY The comparison is done with 1-12 Numbers as the start of the month. EOD on 1-12-21 = 36364 EOD on 24-12-21 = 34857 up by -1507 points or -4.14% from 1-12-21 The highest level in the week ending 31-12-21 = 35597 on 31-12-21 The lowest level in the week ending 31-12-21 = 34233 on 27-12-21 Difference Highest - Lowest = 1364 points or 3.98% from the lowest level In the last week, Bank Nifty has made an upward move of 625 points or 1.79% which is refreshingly a good sign. Insight: Bank Nifty as on EOD 31-12-2020 - 31264 Bank Nifty as on EOD 31-12-2021 - 35481 Change - 4218 % 13.49 NIFTY The comparison is done with 1-12 Numbers as the start of the month. EOD on 1-12-21 = 17166 EOD on 31-12-21 = 17354 up by 188 points or 1.09% from 1-12-21 The highest level in the week ending 31-12-21 = 17400.80 on 31-12-21 The lowest level in the week ending 31-12-21 = 16833.20 on 27-12-21 Difference Highest - Lowest = 567 points or 3.37% from the lowest level In the last one week Nifty has made an up move of 350 points or 2.06% which indicates a good positive change in the short term trend. Insight: Nifty as on EOD 31-12-2020 - 13982 Nifty as on EOD 31-12-2021 - 17354 Change -3372 % 24.12 FII - DII DATA: DEC 2021 FIIs = -35,409 Crores DIIs = +30.675 Crores Net is = -4,734 Crores As mentioned last week, there was a slow down already in FII selling and it continued during the last week which brought about some relief to the downward biased market moves. Conclusion: On an annual basis, Nifty has clearly outperformed Bank Nifty which has been able to perform just above half the % gain than that of Nifty. This is indicating a very depressive picture of what happened in 2021. At the same time, I view this as an opportunity for Bank Nifty to outperform and become the recovery engine for the overall market. FIIs have turned net buyers for 2 days in the week and only once in the week their selling was more than 1,000 crores. We have to see how the next week goes. If FIIs keep buying even in the next week, then the market mood would change for the better with some sort of certainty. Insight: India Vix as on 31-12-20 21.09 India Vix as on 31-12-21 16.22 Change 04.87 % 23.09 The above is a significant drop over a period of one year and explains the logic behind the rise in the Indices. Only Nifty has a corresponding increase to the drop in India Vix as Bank Nifty has remained under pressure for most part of the year. Since this week’s analysis is also yearly analysis, I will share a separate post and a video that takes care of the Leaders & Laggards of Nifty as well as Bank Nifty. And that is why I have not compiled separate conclusions for the two indices. On a broader scale for the next few days, it is important for Nifty to end a week above 17650 and for Bank Nifty it is important to close a week above 36800-37000. This is when the indices are likely to shift to the next higher gear. Here is the video link: Please feel free to comment/share your feedback as, like you, I am also a learner of the markets! And therefore, I have the right to be wrong on either side as no one can predict the moves. Happy Trading/Investing! Umesh 31-12-21
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Swing Trading Opportunities for the week beginning 20-12-21SWING TRADING WATCHLIST FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING 20-12-21 INTENT I will only be sharing the time frame and the scrip name. I will leave the trade basis aside as the intent is to engage the reader in learning the basics of finding good scrips. You can have a look at the charts and place your favorite indicators and check out if any of these fit your trade plan. Some readers feel that I am simply listing down several scrips so that if they go up I can claim so. This is not the case - I am not here to score any points. I am sharing my weekly analysis and if you like it, read it and if you do not agree, I am fine with that. ON MY WATCHLIST FOR THE COMING WEEK I have changed the format to some extent and I request you to let me know if you like this approach to finding Swing Trading Opportunities or the one that I was following till last weekend. Important - Nifty is below 17000 and this analysis is purely based on what is seen on the charts as low risk entries. It is possible that you may come across several other opportunities but as the markets fall, my universe of analysis gets restricted to my holdings and Nifty as well as Bank Nifty. This week’s analysis has been performed accordingly. It is easy to get attracted by several opportunities but funds are limited but underlying risks are not. I have filtered the sectors based on Monthly candles. Here are the likely candidates for the week - SECTORS LOOKING GOOD FOR LONG POSITIONS- Considering the Monthly Charts, the following sectors look good: Auto Bank Nifty CPSE Media PSE Considering the Weekly Charts, the following sectors look good: Auto Bank Nifty CPSE FMCG IT Media MidCap100 PSU Bank Realty If you look at the sectoral indices on the daily charts, all of them look beaten down and you would not like to trade them. This is precisely the message for a short term trader - these could be good short sell candidates, but not for Swing or Positional candidates. WEEKLY TIME FRAME- FOR LONG POSITIONS - Nifty Spot at 16985 Adani Ports Grasim HDFC HDFC Life ITC Maruti Reliance Tata Consumer NAM India Accelya Bayer Crop Kotak Bank ETF KSCL Nazara Sun TV Trent I may / may not take these trades as not every opportunity should / can be traded. I believe that it is better to help someone learn the technique of selecting good scrips than giving tips - in any case, I am not SEBI regd so I do not have the authority as well to do so. In case you are able to spot the setup and the trade basis, please do share so that together we can learn. Here is the Video Link: Thank you for your time and Happy Learning, 19-12--21 Disclaimer -- This post is shared for learning and educational purposes only and in no way acts as a recommendation. I am not a SEBI regd trader so please either decide your trades/investments on your own or consult your financial advisor before making any trades.
NSE:TRENT
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Data Driven Analysis of Indices for the week ending 17 Dec 21DATA DRIVEN ANALYSIS OF NIFTY & BANK NIFTY FOR THE WEEK ENDING 17-12-21 This is a new weekly post/series where I will briefly capture the key highlights of the 2 leading indices. This post is supported by a video that takes you through the details of how I have arrived at the analysis. I encourage you to view the video as well since not everything can be captured in a document form. I hope that this effort would help the readers and viewers to get a crisp idea about what happened in the markets over a period of one week. Important - Although the markets are very hard to predict in the short term, the main issue presently faced is that even on an intraday basis, the markets have been extremely volatile. This may impact the traders who trade on an intraday basis. If you are one such trader, please be careful and assign top most priority to risk management. BANK NIFTY The comparison is done with 1-12 Numbers as the start of the month. EOD on 1-12-21 = 36364 EOD on 17-12-21 = 35618 up by -746 points or -2.06% from 1-12-21 The highest level in the week ending 17-12-21 = 37581 on 13-12-21 The lowest level in the week ending 10-12-21 = 35535 on 17-12-21 Difference Highest - Lowest = 2046 points or -5.76% from the lowest level In the last one week, Bank Nifty has made a downward move of 1487 points or 4.01% which is a bearish sign. NIFTY The comparison is done with 1-12 Numbers as the start of the month. EOD on 1-12-21 = 17166 EOD on 17-12-21 = 16985 up by -181 points or -1.05% from 1-12-21 The highest level in the week ending 17-12-21 = 17629 on 13-12-21 The lowest level in the week ending 17-12-21 = 16966 on 17-12-21 Difference Highest - Lowest = -663 points or -1.91% from the lowest level In the last one week Nifty has made a downward move of 526 points or 3.00% which is a bearish sign. FII - DII DATA: DEC 2021 FIIs = -26,684 Crores DIIs = 19.487 Crores Net is = -7,197 Crores Based on last week’s workings, I estimate a net FII-DII selling of 12,500 Crores and the way it is posed now, it seems we may unfortunately hit the target. Conclusion: The FII selling is concentrated on the index heavyweights which is impacting the entire market sentiment. DIIs have not been able to hold on to the selling pressure though they may be doing their best in terms of buying every dip. But the action of Friday 17-12 indicated that the DIIs were also not convinced that we have reached the bottom. SGX Nifty is as of the end of the week indicating a -23 points close. This may change the moment market opens as every rise is sold in to. BANK NIFTY When HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Kotak Bank decide not to support the index, there is no way other members of the family would be able to lift the index. When these 3 are in selling mode, SBIN also joins the party and then the game turns one sided. Bank Nifty has been oscillating between underperforming to outperforming Nifty and has been moving all over the place. Kotak Bank has been experiencing extreme volatility as it moved from a high of 1890 on 16-12 to a low below 1800 on 17-12. That is a movement of 5% in 1 trading session which is quite a significant one. NIFTY The IT heavyweight Infosys could do little despite going up 5%+ in the last 2 sessions. The selling pressure was so intense that the positivity was outnumbered. In the process, Infosys managed to hit its ATH which is a good sign. HDFC and Reliance in particular have been hammered by the FIIs and that is one of the reasons why Nifty keeps drifting on the lower end. HDFC has fallen more than 10% from its ATH and that is not a good sign at all. The HDFC twins and the Bajaj twins have to do a major turnaround for the indices to change the color otherwise, we will keep witnessing 1 step forward and 2-3 backwards in the coming week as well. 17630 on Nifty and 37600 on Bank Nifty are the levels that need to be overcome on a closing basis for the bulls to regain the momentum. Any close below that would keep providing intraday to swing opportunities only. Here is the video link: Please feel free to comment/share your feedback as, like you, I am also a learner of the markets! And therefore, I have the right to be wrong on either side as no one can predict the moves. Happy Trading/Investing! Umesh 19-12-21
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Analysis of Bank Nifty & Nifty for the week ending 10 Dec 21DATA DRIVEN ANALYSIS OF NIFTY & BANK NIFTY FOR THE WEEK ENDING 10-12-21 This is a new weekly post/series where I will briefly capture the key highlights of the 2 leading indices. This post is supported by a video that takes you through the details of how I have arrived at the analysis. One of the reasons for starting this series is that there are many readers/viewers who are positional traders or investors and for them, weekly analysis of indices would be of more interest than a daily EOD analysis. I hope that this effort would help the readers and viewers to get a crisp idea about what happened in the markets over a period of one week. Important - Although the markets are very hard to predict in the short term, the main issue presently faced is that even on an intraday basis, the markets have been extremely volatile. This may impact the traders who trade on an intraday basis. If you are one such trader, please be careful and assign top most priority to risk management. BANK NIFTY The comparison is done with 1-12 Numbers as the start of the month. EOD on 1-12-21 = 36364 EOD on 10-12-21 = 37105 up by 741 points or +2.04% from 1-12-21 The highest level in the week ending 10-12-21 = 37397 on 9-12-21 The lowest level in the week ending 10-12-21 = 35696 on 6-12-21 Difference Highest - Lowest = 1701 points or 4.77% from the lowest level In the last one week, Bank Nifty has made an upward move of 901 points or 2.51% which is a good change. NIFTY The comparison is done with 1-12 Numbers as the start of the month. EOD on 1-12-21 = 17166 EOD on 10-12-21 = 17511 up by 345 points or +2.00% from 1-12-21 The highest level in the week ending 10-12-21 = 17543 on 9-12-21 The lowest level in the week ending 10-12-21 = 16891 on 6-12-21 Difference Highest - Lowest = 652 points or 3.86% from the lowest level In the last one week Nifty has made an upward move of 314 points or 1.83% which is a good sign. FII - DII DATA: Note: Last week a reader questioned my way of averaging the FII DII net numbers per every point move in Nifty. I analyze this for my learnings and share the same for your reading. If you do not agree, I have no issues as that is quite natural and that is how traders make money - one does not agree with the view of the other. DEC 2021 FIIs = -16,231 Crores DIIs = 12.697 Crores Net is negative = -2,534 Crores If we simply extrapolate the same for Dec 21 at the rate of 4.8 times , we arrive at 12,163 Crores. I would be happy if I am proven completely wrong on the downside as that would mean that the traders/investors in general who are long would benefit as the indices would have then moved up assuming that DIIs do not switch Conclusion: This week, the 2 tradable indices have followed the global cues to a great extent. This is a welcome change as till recently, we used to selectively not follow the global cues thanks to the FIIs increasing their selling pressure when they pleased so. The relentless selling on the part of FIIs is not going to let the indices breathe easy. I am not sure if there is any data that gives us some idea about the quantum of the holdings of FIIs and DIIs. If any of the readers are aware, please do share. SGX Nifty is as of the end of the week indicating a 75+ points close but our markets may experience a sell-off if they open with a big gap-up as that has become the norm since FIIs have moved into a selling mode. BANK NIFTY - The highest close on Nifty was at 18445 on 18-10-21 and the lowest in almost 2 months was at 35327 on 29-11-21. Bank Nifty is currently 4724 points away from the ATH close and 1778 points away from the swing low. The above means that Bank Nifty is still not out of the woods and the path of least resistance is on the downside. This is purely from the EOD as well as Swing Low numbers point of view and ignores any technical indicators or tools that may be in use. However, price is supreme and that is what it indicates as of now. The fact that Bank Nifty is almost 1500 points up from the week’s low is a good sign indeed. In my view, Bank Nifty is likely to outperform Nifty in the medium-term which is 1-3 months. NIFTY - The highest close on Nifty was at 41238 on 26-10-21 and the lowest in almost 2.5 months was at 16782 on 29-11-21. Nifty is currently 934 points away from the ATH close and 729 points away from the swing low. The above means that Nifty is still in indecisive mode with the path of least resistance on the downside. This is purely from the EOD as well as Swing Low numbers point of view and ignores any technical indicators or tools that may be in use. However, price is supreme and that is what it indicates as of now. Nifty has moved up from the swing lows in a nice manner and reduced the extent of negativity by almost half since the last week despite the first 2 sessions during the week registering lows below 17000. In the end, with Nifty at 17500+ and Bank Nifty at 37100+, all does not seem to be that bad as well and the intense volatility and choppiness may be around for a while, but the indices may well have formed a lower base already. For Nifty around 16700-800 and for Bank Nifty 35000-35200. Here is the video link: Please feel free to comment/share your feedback as, like you, I am also a learner of the markets! And therefore, I have the right to be wrong on either side as no one can predict the moves. Happy Trading/Investing! Umesh 11-12-21
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT