ASALCBR is a good Medium Term BetASALCBR
Associated Alcohols & Breweries Ltd
Chart Structure:
- After listing in Feb'20, the stock is in an upward trend since Mar'20
- Stock right now is consolidating after making an All-Time High.
- During the consolidation, the stock has taken support multiple times near previous resistance and Avg. Buy price of last Huge Accumulation.
Volatility Contraction:
- In Day TF, price is forming a triangle pattern.
- Stock's Volatility is contracting. As before it was pushed down 20% after making ATH.
- Stock rose up again from the support area, and this time it was pushed only 11% down, hence creating a Triangle Pattern.
Relative Strength:
- Stock is outperforming its sector & Nifty50 in 3m, 6m & 1y TF. It is underperforming in lower tf due to stock being in consolidation.
- Stock has turned RS+ again on 8th Oct and is keeping above Laxman Rekha.
- Spread chart of the stock has formed a triangle pattern and is near a breakout.
Volume Activity:
- Stock saw huge Volume Activity from 4th to 12th October 2021.
- In that period 14.76 lac shares were delivered with an average of 1.84 lac shares/day with an average buying price of 548/-
- Previous average deliveries were 37k shares/day.
Financial Performance:
- Stock beat its QoQ & YoY Quarterly numbers in Q2.
- Sales Growth +50% QoQ & +21% YoY
- PBT Growth +36% QoQ & +6% YoY
- EPS Growth +41% QoQ & 8% YoY
Fundamental Notes:
- The company plans to expand its capacity from 45 MLPA to 90 MLPA. The project is expected to be completed by June-2022. That means the Co. will see the double output in 7-8 months.
- Company Distil, Blend, Bottle & Market are some of the key brands of United Spirits such as Bagpiper, Blue Riband, Flavored Mischief, Director's special gold & McDowell's Rum.
- The contract of this franchise has been extended up to April 2025.
- Some other brands which are produced under contract manufacturing are Black Dog, Vat 69, Black&White, McDowells, Royal Challenge, Signature, etc.
ATH
Good Long Opportunitystop loss and target levels are mentioned in the chart . sl is on eod closing basis . follow position sizing and proper risk management .
a good flag and pole breakout happening in suppetro . but more important than any chart pattern u can see that this stock is continuously following 50 ema from 2020 lows and has rallied to these levels by taking support everytime on 50 EMA . FOR the first time it closed below 50 ema but now it has again given breakout of 50 ema and as well as retested it and also retested the trendline so now we can hope for a good upmove making new highs in recent future .
Volume also seems to be increasing after a good consolidation in tight range .
FINOLEX INDUSTRIES (Positional Study)~ Swing High Breakout - ✓
~ Price Close at ATH - ✓
~ Positive Spread Performance in all Time Frames - ✓
~ Spread Chart Breakout - ✓
~ RS+ & Increasing Relative Strength - ✓
~ Huge Qty (61.71 lac shares) Delivered on 17th Sept. with Avg. VWAP of 189/-
~ Good Volume Activity during Breakout - ✓
Good Stock to Study & Keep Eye on.
Tata chemicals reversal setupTata chemicals has recently broken its all time high and is also sustaning above the high
A pullback was needed for further rally . Applying harmonic patterns we get a bullish gartley pattern and tata chemicals is showing no lower lows can be one sign of reversal.
Second confirmation can be swing high breakout and another confirmation is trend line breakout
TARMAT LTD Breakout ATHNSE:TARMAT Levels are Mentioned in the chart...
Note:
1. Views are personal. Recheck and take the trade as per your RR.
2. Always remember SL is your lifeline not the big target...
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Neelamalai Agro - Breakout with massive volume clusterThe stock has recorded roughly 80% Delivery volumes in the last one month.
BUY GUIDANCE:
Never buy before 3PM . I have been burnt many times over. Try to buy between 3:15 - 3:30PM, later the better.
SL: Depending on your risk appetite: Below Weekly BO Candle / Below Daily BO Candle / 50% of Weekly BO candle / Below 20DMA
TGT: After a 10-15%+ vertical move, breakdown of 20DMA (on a daily close basis)
SELL GUIDANCE:
Selling in Profit:
Sell earlier in the session when the prices are higher, around 11AM.
Selling at SL:
Give your stock a chance to recover by end of session. If it doesn't recover, sell anywhere between 3:00 - 3:30PM.
Note: I reserve the right to be wrong.
DISCLAIMER:
I am not a SEBI registered analyst. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.
Nifty 16130 not outNIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -03-08-21
IN SUMMARY
Open / High / Low / Close
15951.55 / 16146.9 / 15914.35 / 16130.75
Trading Range Low to High: 232 points
Likely Max Realistic Opportunity @ 50%: 116 points
India VIX: 13.75 / +7.34%
FII DII activities: +1818 Crores
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
What an impressive rally from Nifty - even on a 5-minute chart, only once it closed below the 20 MA and then never looked back!
Nifty is now in the proverbial “uncharted territory”.
The rally looks towering in comparison to other days when the range was becoming narrower by each passing session.
There is nothing more that can be said as we have to now see how the week 1 of Aug 21 ends.
TOP 3 LOSERS
JSW STEEL - The fall is insignificant as such moves are expected when a scrip is in the resistance zone, but the overall positivity in the market has made it look the topmost loser.
BAJAJ AUTO - Even when Nifty ended on an ATH close, it could start the scooter for a good ride up and above. Something is missing from its body and unless that is in place, the scooter may not start rolling again.
SHREECEM - Yesterday’s top gainer is today’s loser. The typical resistance zone play seems to be in action. Wait and watch for now.
TOP 3 GAINERS
TITAN - Yesterday, it was gainer # 2, and today, it is the topmost gainer recording yet another ATH close for the scrip as it along with Nifty, sails in to the unknown and in my view, untapped territory.
HDFC - The scrip that made all the difference in the mood today. It rose and flew up like a phoenix and took the whole market along with it. Interestingly, it is far away from its ATH and as of now, it is sitting right in the resistance zone so good volumes done today may help it hit out of the hurdles.
INDUSIND BANK - The news re getting enrolled with RBI for Govt related transactions seems to have lifted this counter from the negative closes that it had been experiencing for the last several days.
POSITIVES
The index heavyweights have woken up from the slumber and all together and in style so Nifty could scale past 16100 as well without an issue.
HDFC, RELIANCE, SBIN, AXIS BANK, TATA MOTORS, TCS, MARUTI, & INFOSYS all have contributed significantly which is a big positive.
Bank Nifty closed above 35000 and has also closed the day above 20 as well as 50 DMA which is a good sign.
NEGATIVES
HDFCBANK under-performed yet again and in fact, it threatened to retest 1400 at the open but then recovered and moved sideways.
It is still a few points away from the 200 DMA so it has the power to upset any plans that the other scrips may have to take Nifty up and above.
Whereas Nifty has scaled ATH close, Bank Nifty is far away and is clearly under-performing.
TRADING RANGE FOR 04-08-21
Nifty support is now at 16000-15950. The resistance zone is not known and would be driven by Bank Nifty or any other index heavyweight.
BANKNIFTY support range gets upgraded to 34800-35000. There are many resistances ahead - 35400-500-650-750.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
Finally, FIIs have managed to end up as Net Buyers for +2000 Crores. This indicates that some more up move is in the offing.
DIIs have started the process of booking gains so tomorrow HDFC may come under pressure as this is where they attack when FIIs turn buyers.
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
3-8-21
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title as well as its contents can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.