NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -03-08-21
IN SUMMARY
Open / High / Low / Close
15951.55 / 16146.9 / 15914.35 / 16130.75
Trading Range Low to High: 232 points
Likely Max Realistic Opportunity @ 50%: 116 points
India VIX: 13.75 / +7.34%
FII DII activities: +1818 Crores
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
What an impressive rally from Nifty - even on a 5-minute chart, only once it closed below the 20 MA and then never looked back!
Nifty is now in the proverbial “uncharted territory”.
The rally looks towering in comparison to other days when the range was becoming narrower by each passing session.
There is nothing more that can be said as we have to now see how the week 1 of Aug 21 ends.
TOP 3 LOSERS
JSW STEEL - The fall is insignificant as such moves are expected when a scrip is in the resistance zone, but the overall positivity in the market has made it look the topmost loser.
BAJAJ AUTO - Even when Nifty ended on an ATH close, it could start the scooter for a good ride up and above. Something is missing from its body and unless that is in place, the scooter may not start rolling again.
SHREECEM - Yesterday’s top gainer is today’s loser. The typical resistance zone play seems to be in action. Wait and watch for now.
TOP 3 GAINERS
TITAN - Yesterday, it was gainer # 2, and today, it is the topmost gainer recording yet another ATH close for the scrip as it along with Nifty, sails in to the unknown and in my view, untapped territory.
HDFC - The scrip that made all the difference in the mood today. It rose and flew up like a phoenix and took the whole market along with it. Interestingly, it is far away from its ATH and as of now, it is sitting right in the resistance zone so good volumes done today may help it hit out of the hurdles.
INDUSIND BANK - The news re getting enrolled with RBI for Govt related transactions seems to have lifted this counter from the negative closes that it had been experiencing for the last several days.
POSITIVES
The index heavyweights have woken up from the slumber and all together and in style so Nifty could scale past 16100 as well without an issue.
HDFC, RELIANCE, SBIN, AXIS BANK, TATA MOTORS, TCS, MARUTI, & INFOSYS all have contributed significantly which is a big positive.
Bank Nifty closed above 35000 and has also closed the day above 20 as well as 50 DMA which is a good sign.
NEGATIVES
HDFCBANK under-performed yet again and in fact, it threatened to retest 1400 at the open but then recovered and moved sideways.
It is still a few points away from the 200 DMA so it has the power to upset any plans that the other scrips may have to take Nifty up and above.
Whereas Nifty has scaled ATH close, Bank Nifty is far away and is clearly under-performing.
TRADING RANGE FOR 04-08-21
Nifty support is now at 16000-15950. The resistance zone is not known and would be driven by Bank Nifty or any other index heavyweight.
BANKNIFTY support range gets upgraded to 34800-35000. There are many resistances ahead - 35400-500-650-750.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
Finally, FIIs have managed to end up as Net Buyers for +2000 Crores. This indicates that some more up move is in the offing.
DIIs have started the process of booking gains so tomorrow HDFC may come under pressure as this is where they attack when FIIs turn buyers.
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
3-8-21
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title as well as its contents can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
IN SUMMARY
Open / High / Low / Close
15951.55 / 16146.9 / 15914.35 / 16130.75
Trading Range Low to High: 232 points
Likely Max Realistic Opportunity @ 50%: 116 points
India VIX: 13.75 / +7.34%
FII DII activities: +1818 Crores
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
What an impressive rally from Nifty - even on a 5-minute chart, only once it closed below the 20 MA and then never looked back!
Nifty is now in the proverbial “uncharted territory”.
The rally looks towering in comparison to other days when the range was becoming narrower by each passing session.
There is nothing more that can be said as we have to now see how the week 1 of Aug 21 ends.
TOP 3 LOSERS
JSW STEEL - The fall is insignificant as such moves are expected when a scrip is in the resistance zone, but the overall positivity in the market has made it look the topmost loser.
BAJAJ AUTO - Even when Nifty ended on an ATH close, it could start the scooter for a good ride up and above. Something is missing from its body and unless that is in place, the scooter may not start rolling again.
SHREECEM - Yesterday’s top gainer is today’s loser. The typical resistance zone play seems to be in action. Wait and watch for now.
TOP 3 GAINERS
TITAN - Yesterday, it was gainer # 2, and today, it is the topmost gainer recording yet another ATH close for the scrip as it along with Nifty, sails in to the unknown and in my view, untapped territory.
HDFC - The scrip that made all the difference in the mood today. It rose and flew up like a phoenix and took the whole market along with it. Interestingly, it is far away from its ATH and as of now, it is sitting right in the resistance zone so good volumes done today may help it hit out of the hurdles.
INDUSIND BANK - The news re getting enrolled with RBI for Govt related transactions seems to have lifted this counter from the negative closes that it had been experiencing for the last several days.
POSITIVES
The index heavyweights have woken up from the slumber and all together and in style so Nifty could scale past 16100 as well without an issue.
HDFC, RELIANCE, SBIN, AXIS BANK, TATA MOTORS, TCS, MARUTI, & INFOSYS all have contributed significantly which is a big positive.
Bank Nifty closed above 35000 and has also closed the day above 20 as well as 50 DMA which is a good sign.
NEGATIVES
HDFCBANK under-performed yet again and in fact, it threatened to retest 1400 at the open but then recovered and moved sideways.
It is still a few points away from the 200 DMA so it has the power to upset any plans that the other scrips may have to take Nifty up and above.
Whereas Nifty has scaled ATH close, Bank Nifty is far away and is clearly under-performing.
TRADING RANGE FOR 04-08-21
Nifty support is now at 16000-15950. The resistance zone is not known and would be driven by Bank Nifty or any other index heavyweight.
BANKNIFTY support range gets upgraded to 34800-35000. There are many resistances ahead - 35400-500-650-750.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
Finally, FIIs have managed to end up as Net Buyers for +2000 Crores. This indicates that some more up move is in the offing.
DIIs have started the process of booking gains so tomorrow HDFC may come under pressure as this is where they attack when FIIs turn buyers.
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
3-8-21
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title as well as its contents can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.