Bajaj Finserv - Short OpportunityShort Opportunity -
Bajaj finserv is in the bearish trend and has taken support at 0.618 level of fib retracement it means that if this stock candle closes below this level it will continue the bearish trend and is expected to go down. The CPR is narrow and at the downside & CCI has crossed 0 level and head to the downside which also indicates the downtrend.
Bajajfinserv
Bajaj Finserv Ltd.: Cup n HandleBajaj Fiserv Ltd is currently engaged in life insurance, general insurance and consumer finance businesses and plans to expand its business by offering a wide array of financial products and services in India. Apart from financial services, the company is also active in wind-energy generation.
CMP: 15528.95
In Bajaj Fin. Cup and handle structure/ Pattern on 14722 market retraced up to 15450. and move for big downfall up to target 11490.
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Bajaj Finserv Will Make One More Leg Down Before Marching UpwardBAJAJ FINSERV is forming in the descending channel.
After making the all-time high of 19325 , it has corrected 3000 points.
The descending channel has the highest value of 19325 and the lowest value of 16273 .
It has touched nine times on the control of descending channel.
Even if the control line has provided reversal, the breakout of the control line signals continuation of the trend.
Price is occurring value area box which shows control of the supply & demand. In this area, buyers and sellers are both satisfied with this price.
If the price gives a fake-out, traders can buy on the excess area for the targets of the control line of the value area box at 17275 and up to the upper band of the value area.
Bearish Engulfing Candle On Daily Time FrameBajaj Finserv LTD has formed bearish engulfing candle stick pattern on daily timeframe. RSI below 50 and ready to break down the trend line. Best shorting opportunity below 17249 for 1st target 17000, and second target 16850.
Disclaimer: This is for demonstration and educational purpose only. This is not buying or selling recommendations. I am not SEBI registered. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any trade.
Indices fall significantly amidst increased volatilityNIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS 13-12-21
In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow.
O 17619.10
H 17639.50
L 17355.95
C 17368.25
EOD -143.50 points / -0.82%
SGX Nifty 13-12-21 @ 1920h = -8 points
FII DII = -1392 Crores
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart
Nifty opened with a good gap-up, made efforts to consolidate above 17600, but failed to do so and broke 17600.
And then, the usual sell-off started but in a slow-paced manner as it drifted towards lower levels.
Soon after noon, Nifty fell 70+ points in a matter of 5 minutes and that changed the hopes of a close around the close of 10-12.
Nifty has now made a higher high but somehow managed to make a lower low as well. This is quite an unusual situation in a market that is trying to restore its direction towards the beginning of the bull market line.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
Top 5 Lifters contributed = 16
Top 5 Draggers contributed = 88
Net = -72
BANK NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
Top 3 Lifters contributed = 57
Top 3 Draggers contributed = 189
Net = -132
POSITIVES
Axis Bank is the only leading scrip which is standing tall on a day when the indices have reversed the gains made in the last few sessions
There is nothing more that can be stated as a positive.
NEGATIVES
Nifty ended below 17400 and Bank Nifty ended below 37000 - what was a positive for the 10-12 session is now the negative - so support has become a resistance.
India Vix has once again moved up leading to increased volatility.
The top lifters of Nifty and Bank Nifty could barely contribute which is not a good sign at all.
FII DII data is net negative.
TRADING RANGE FOR 14 Dec 21
Nifty Support = 17200-300 may well be the new base.
Nifty resistance = 17400-450-500-550-600 on a closing basis.
Bank Nifty Support = 36200-500-800
Bank Nifty resistance = 37000-200-500-700
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
Many were elated as SGX ended the last week above 17600 and the spot opened in our market at 17619 so many long positions would have been created in line with the positive global cues and US markets also closing on a high.
However, that would have been short lived since in line with what has now become the norm, the sell-off began and on the first day of the week, it was quite intense. Many of the traders may have been trapped as Nifty kept breaking supports with ease and in slow paced market moves.
Bank Nifty seems to have a lot of soft corners for 36800 area as it has visited the surrounding areas many times in the last few sessions. This is yet again indicating that there is inherent weakness in some of the leading scrips which have found comfort in making range bound moves only for now.
Bajaj twins from the Nifty pack have become a regular feature in the lifters or laggards. Somehow, they make it a point to appear on and off in these two areas.
The range for the day for the tradable indices have more than doubled. This is a good sign for the traders but it has also resulted in increased volatility.
Bank Nifty ended 180 points lower but the interesting thing is that the top 3 draggers contributed 132 of these points.
What do you feel about this?
Here is the video link --
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
13-12-21
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
---
90 minutes of FTSE backed sell-off spoils the recovery actNIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS 27-10-21
In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow.
The Insights & Observations section carries links to my tweets that were posted during the day related to what I could gather from the markets.
O 18295.85
H 18342.05
L 18167.90
C 18210.95
EOD - -57.45 points / -0.31%
India VIX = 16.83 / +0.47%
SGX Nifty 26-10-21 1845h = +9 points
FII DII = -1441 Crores
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart
Nifty made a higher high and a higher low.
Thanks to the weighted average method, Nifty managed to close above 18200.
Nifty is highly vulnerable above 18300-325 band and that is triggering intense selling pressure usually after 1400h.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
Top 5 Lifters contributed = 36
Top 5 Draggers contributed = 83
Net = -47
POSITIVES
Nifty could stretch the day high to 18342.
Infosys has managed to bounce back and it is only on account of it that Nifty could hold on to the intense selling pressure.
SBIN has been weathering the selling pressure well as it gets ready to receive its Q2 results next week.
NEGATIVES
Axis Bank fell 6%+ and that is what triggered others as well to become nervous.
Reliance was looking good but came under intense pressure in the last hour or so.
TCS remains subdued despite Infosys taking the lead in bouncing back.
Bank Nifty ended well below 41000.
TRADING RANGE FOR 28 October 2021
Nifty 17900-950 area is the support base and 18250-300-350-400 would remain as the resistance for now.
I am unable to state any levels for Bank Nifty as it finds its ground in the territory above 41000. It is better to wait for the week to end before any level-based conclusions are drawn.
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
The insights now come in the form of tweets however Tradingview has not yet permitted me to post links to tweets or videos so I request you to visit my Twitter page or best follow me on Twitter to get updates as and when posted.
What do you feel about this?
Here is the video link --
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
27-10-21
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
---
FTSE Lifts Indian Indices as they bounce back in stylefailed NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -21-09-21
IN SUMMARY
O / H / L / C
17450.5 / 17578.35 / 17326.1 / 17562
H-L = 252 points
VIX 16.52 / -5.55%
FII DII: Not available till 1950h Is more likely to be moderately positive.
SGX NIFTY at 1940h - 17536 -25points
Likely open: Flat to mild positive.
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 Minutes Chart
A gap-up opening failed to hold 17450 levels and then sold off and made a lower low as NIFTY drifted towards 17300-325.
The situation would have been worse off had Europe not opened green and may be 17200-250 would have been tested.
However, soon after it became clear that Europe was trading in the comfortable green, NIFTY made a one-directional rally to end above 17550.
However, it is likely to face resistance around yesterday’s high of 17625+ this is evident on the daily charts.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
The Weight Lifters
BAJAJ FINANCE 37
INFOSYS 19
BAJAJ FINSERV 15
JSW STEEL 14
ITC 11
TOTAL 96
The Draggers
HDFC BANK 05
MARUTI 03
NESTLE 02
BAJAJ AUTO 02
BPCL 01
TOTAL 13
Lifter - Draggers = +86
POSITIVES
NIFTY closed above 17550 and 17300 was respected.
BANK NIFTY erased all the losses and ended in the green which helped NIFTY in a big way.
ITC, INFOSYS-TCS, HDFC, and TATA MOTORS rose more than 1%.
RELIANCE closed above 2400.
KOTAK BANK was able to hold 2000 levels on closing basis.
NEGATIVES
The single most weak link is HDFC BANK. It experienced severe VIX today and has the potential to be the game-breaker or maker in the coming week.
Except for KOTAK BANK, all heavyweights in banking were badly hammered.
BANK NIFTY made a low of 36525 a fall of 1500+ points of ATH attained a couple of days ago.
TRADING RANGE FOR 22-09-21
17300-17350 was the support line and NIFTY almost threatened the same. So I now revise the line to 17250-300. Resistances at 17600-30-700.
BANK NIFTY supports lines were breached so now the support line is redrawn as 36200-500. Resistances at 37500-700.
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
HDFC BANK seems to have become the punching bag as it was extremely volatile through the day and moved 32 points in the day and it must have gone up and down and back and forth several times.
Every time it went up and down, the fortunes of the index traders swung with it as it is a heavyweight for both the indices, and if it were not for the other scrips that showed good performance, both the indices would have fared poorly on a closing basis.
NIFTY’s move is very much like that of INFOSYS if we look at the 5 minutes chart. INFOSYS is also one of the heavyweights so it has played its part in the rally today.
Whereas NIFTY ended +150 points from the P Close, BANK NIFTY failed to register a +100. This is mainly on account of HDFC BANK so BANK NIFTY will be held back as long as HDFC BANK wishes.
What do you feel about this?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
21-09-21
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
---
#bajajfinserv momentum reverse divergence potential upmoveall timeframes bullish in momentum and trend. A 4 bar bullish momentum reverse divergence on daily
could take it further up to at least 16799 again if it works out. enter only on confirmation of price moves above previous candle with
tight stop loss and if this is negated reentry only after a retracement at mentioned FIB levels.
Nifty ends at ATH Close above 16600NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -24-08-21
IN SUMMARY
O / H / L / C
16561.4 / 16647.1 / 16495.3 / 16624.6
H-L = 152
VIX 13.19 / -3.65%
FII DII: +730 Crores
Likely open: Flat to positive with resistance at 16650-700.
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
Yet another gap-up opening was sold into.
Yet,
Nifty made a higher and a higher low.
Nifty ended at ATH close and is now 70+ points away from the ATH level and this may be the hardest journey.
A Pro gap-up opening was seen today indicating that the bulls are likely to buy at any dip in the index.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
The Weight Lifters
BAJAJ FINSERV 28
HDFC BANK 23
BAJAJ FINANCE 20
ICICI BANK 12
RELIANCE 08
TOTAL 91
The Draggers
INFOSYS 10
HDFC 08
TCS 04
NESTLE 03
ASIAN PAINTS 02
TOTAL 27
Lifter - Draggers = +64
The above explains how Nifty managed to close at the ATH level as the draggers proved ineffective.
POSITIVES
A sustained rally to end the day at ATH.
HDFC BANK decisively cleared the long-time resistance of 1530-35.
Even though HDFC, INFOSYS, and TCS ended in the red, they could not have any significant impact on the Nifty.
BANK NIFTY helped Nifty as it soared 700+ points from the intraday low of 35070.
NEGATIVES
16650 is likely to be a hard line to cross as the index immediately fell as it was close to that area.
Similarly, for BANK NIFTY 35800 appears to be a tough one to clear as it retraced from around that area.
FIIs have sold heavily in excess of 1,500 Crores and Nifty ends on an ATH! There is something that is still bugging the FIIs.
TRADING RANGE FOR 25-8-21
The Nifty baseline moves up to 16400-450. The resistances are now from 16650 onwards.
BANK NIFTY support base also slides to 34800-35000 and resistance at 35800-36000-36200.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
As mentioned yesterday, TATAMOTORS has been witnessing intensive selling pressure for the last few days and today it breached its 200 DMA around 278 and made a low just above 268. It then made a smart recovery to close just above the 200 DMA but clearly, there was something at play and hopefully, it is now out of the way.
MARUTI also came under pressure but it derived support from the earlier swing low which became the FIB level around 6745-50. However, it keeps getting sold into around 6825-50 and it barely managed to close above 6800.
Another observation re MARUTI is its 6800 Aug CE. This call was witnessing wild swings and moved all over and quickly - sometimes, it rose well ahead of the spot moving up and then getting sold in to and going flat even when the spot moved up. There was something at play that was not visible on the charts.
What do you feel?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
24-8-21
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
BAJAJFINSV - MULTIYEAR CHANNEL BREAKOUTMultiyear channel resistance breakout is seen in this chart, if you look at the chart, every time the price touches the end of channel it reverse to the other end of the channel and vice versa.
This time a comfortable breakout is seen in daily and weekly chart, we must wait for the confirmation in month chart also.
BAJAJ FINSV 💸💰💸Take trade as per the values given in Fibonacci. always trail the stop loss. do your own analysis before taking trade
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BAJAJ FINSERV SELLBAJAJ FINSERV LOOKS A SELL NEAR 11480 WITH STOP LOSS ABOVE 11620 FOR TGT 1 : 10986 TGT 2 : 10613 TGT 3 :10312.
Try to book on a risk reward of 1:2 and don't wait for the exact targets as market is very uncertain. This post is for educational purpose only.
Disclaimer post: We are not sebi registered analyst, plz do your own analysis before investing. we are not responsible for any of your losses
Bajaj Finserv in a buy zoneBajaj finserv is showing a good strength with support of RSI and huge volume addition in weekly time frame.
OI builtup shows that PUT writers are aggressively making their new position and CALL writers are closing their position.
RSI strength, volume addition, OI builtup showing Bullish indication on this stock.
8800 to 9100 this is a strong resistance level if fail to break this level and fall down side so we can expect downside upto 7800 to 7400 as a strong support level.
BAJAJ FINSRV - Build up near resistanceNote: This is for educational purpose only.
There seems to be a build up near resistance which ideally means that bears are unable to push the price down and bulls are taking charge. Moreover, there is a spike in buying volume which enforces this build up. I am expecting a bullish breakout in BAJAJ FINSV.