NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -24-08-21
IN SUMMARY
O / H / L / C
16561.4 / 16647.1 / 16495.3 / 16624.6
H-L = 152
VIX 13.19 / -3.65%
FII DII: +730 Crores
Likely open: Flat to positive with resistance at 16650-700.
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
Yet another gap-up opening was sold into.
Yet,
Nifty made a higher and a higher low.
Nifty ended at ATH close and is now 70+ points away from the ATH level and this may be the hardest journey.
A Pro gap-up opening was seen today indicating that the bulls are likely to buy at any dip in the index.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
The Weight Lifters
BAJAJ FINSERV 28
HDFC BANK 23
BAJAJ FINANCE 20
ICICI BANK 12
RELIANCE 08
TOTAL 91
The Draggers
INFOSYS 10
HDFC 08
TCS 04
NESTLE 03
ASIAN PAINTS 02
TOTAL 27
Lifter - Draggers = +64
The above explains how Nifty managed to close at the ATH level as the draggers proved ineffective.
POSITIVES
A sustained rally to end the day at ATH.
HDFC BANK decisively cleared the long-time resistance of 1530-35.
Even though HDFC, INFOSYS, and TCS ended in the red, they could not have any significant impact on the Nifty.
BANK NIFTY helped Nifty as it soared 700+ points from the intraday low of 35070.
NEGATIVES
16650 is likely to be a hard line to cross as the index immediately fell as it was close to that area.
Similarly, for BANK NIFTY 35800 appears to be a tough one to clear as it retraced from around that area.
FIIs have sold heavily in excess of 1,500 Crores and Nifty ends on an ATH! There is something that is still bugging the FIIs.
TRADING RANGE FOR 25-8-21
The Nifty baseline moves up to 16400-450. The resistances are now from 16650 onwards.
BANK NIFTY support base also slides to 34800-35000 and resistance at 35800-36000-36200.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
As mentioned yesterday, TATAMOTORS has been witnessing intensive selling pressure for the last few days and today it breached its 200 DMA around 278 and made a low just above 268. It then made a smart recovery to close just above the 200 DMA but clearly, there was something at play and hopefully, it is now out of the way.
MARUTI also came under pressure but it derived support from the earlier swing low which became the FIB level around 6745-50. However, it keeps getting sold into around 6825-50 and it barely managed to close above 6800.
Another observation re MARUTI is its 6800 Aug CE. This call was witnessing wild swings and moved all over and quickly - sometimes, it rose well ahead of the spot moving up and then getting sold in to and going flat even when the spot moved up. There was something at play that was not visible on the charts.
What do you feel?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
24-8-21
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
IN SUMMARY
O / H / L / C
16561.4 / 16647.1 / 16495.3 / 16624.6
H-L = 152
VIX 13.19 / -3.65%
FII DII: +730 Crores
Likely open: Flat to positive with resistance at 16650-700.
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
Yet another gap-up opening was sold into.
Yet,
Nifty made a higher and a higher low.
Nifty ended at ATH close and is now 70+ points away from the ATH level and this may be the hardest journey.
A Pro gap-up opening was seen today indicating that the bulls are likely to buy at any dip in the index.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
The Weight Lifters
BAJAJ FINSERV 28
HDFC BANK 23
BAJAJ FINANCE 20
ICICI BANK 12
RELIANCE 08
TOTAL 91
The Draggers
INFOSYS 10
HDFC 08
TCS 04
NESTLE 03
ASIAN PAINTS 02
TOTAL 27
Lifter - Draggers = +64
The above explains how Nifty managed to close at the ATH level as the draggers proved ineffective.
POSITIVES
A sustained rally to end the day at ATH.
HDFC BANK decisively cleared the long-time resistance of 1530-35.
Even though HDFC, INFOSYS, and TCS ended in the red, they could not have any significant impact on the Nifty.
BANK NIFTY helped Nifty as it soared 700+ points from the intraday low of 35070.
NEGATIVES
16650 is likely to be a hard line to cross as the index immediately fell as it was close to that area.
Similarly, for BANK NIFTY 35800 appears to be a tough one to clear as it retraced from around that area.
FIIs have sold heavily in excess of 1,500 Crores and Nifty ends on an ATH! There is something that is still bugging the FIIs.
TRADING RANGE FOR 25-8-21
The Nifty baseline moves up to 16400-450. The resistances are now from 16650 onwards.
BANK NIFTY support base also slides to 34800-35000 and resistance at 35800-36000-36200.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
As mentioned yesterday, TATAMOTORS has been witnessing intensive selling pressure for the last few days and today it breached its 200 DMA around 278 and made a low just above 268. It then made a smart recovery to close just above the 200 DMA but clearly, there was something at play and hopefully, it is now out of the way.
MARUTI also came under pressure but it derived support from the earlier swing low which became the FIB level around 6745-50. However, it keeps getting sold into around 6825-50 and it barely managed to close above 6800.
Another observation re MARUTI is its 6800 Aug CE. This call was witnessing wild swings and moved all over and quickly - sometimes, it rose well ahead of the spot moving up and then getting sold in to and going flat even when the spot moved up. There was something at play that was not visible on the charts.
What do you feel?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
24-8-21
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
