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19 Jan ’24 — Are you ready for the BANKEX expiry tomorrow?BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️ The stance for BankNifty was bearish yesterday and it is still bearish today. The highs and lows of today were more or less matching with the levels of yesterday. Visually the price action is more negative than yesterday, the reason being the highs hit today were due to gap-up whereas yesterday’s high was via fighting it out during trading hours. 4mts chart From the highs to the lows today, there was a swing range of 688 points. Just that the gap-up hides this in plain sight, after all the index closed flat at -0.03%. The change in holiday schedule is going to impact BankNifty the most as BANKEX expiry which was on Monday will have to be conducted tomorrow. Quite sure the traders were not prepared for this event and the opening minutes could create some chaos. We are not even sure if the technical analysis will work out tomorrow. 63mts chart Look at the encircled region - all RED candles. How many analysts do you know who would say these many consecutive red candles are a bullish sign? None. Despite this, BankNifty could move up tomorrow as the news flow of holiday change was not priced in. BANKEX has a close correlation with BankNifty and logically traders would use the opening minutes to build expiry positions tomorrow. Since FIIs were not informed, they would come tomorrow unprepared. If there is sanity tomorrow and BankNifty starts moving downwards - the first level to watch out for is 45399. To go bullish - it has to climb 1765 points.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
24th Nov ’23 Nifty PostMortem Another Flat Day!Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “If you have read my previous post-mortem reports, I have been staying neutral since the 17th and it looks like that is going to change tomorrow. As soon as 19875 is broken on the 1hr TF, I would prefer to go bullish. I will update you guys via the tradingview minds section if that happens tomorrow.” 5mts chart link - click here The much-awaited 19875 breakout did not come today, looks like we need to wait till Tuesday to find out as Monday is a holiday. Due to the additional holiday in between combined with the lack of directional intent today, the options premiums were already dead. BSE:BANK and MidCPSelect also had expiry today along with BSE:SENSEX - this again would have diverted the focus & volume from mainline Nifty and BankNifty. The only good thing that happened today was Nifty’s show of strength at the 19776 support level. Between 13.05 to 13.40 Nifty spent its time around this SR area but thankfully did not break down. 5mts chart link - click here The main reason for this was NiftyIT, it gave up 678pts ~ 2.08% in the last 2 days. But it does not really mean bad news for Nifty50, as long as BankNifty can cover up for the lost ground - the hope can still be kept alive. 1hr chart link - click here On the 1hr TF, I would still like to continue with my neutral stance. Only if 19875 gets taken out, we can hope for some followthrough on the upside.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 25 MAY 2023 expiryThose who trade banknifty & nifty expiry will be excited to trade bankex & sensex expiry on 26 May 2023. I guess it will be the first expiry to be opened to retail traders ! I just checked the zerodha kite app, the option chain is still not integrated it seems, also the weightage of bank stocks of banknifty (NSE) is not same as bankex (BSE) - so request you to monitor the accurate component stocks before making a wrong decision. --- Weekly Analysis From 18th to 25th of May 2023, banknifty has dropped only 89pts ~ 0.2%. Traders who had taken weekly short straddles or short iron fly would have been highly benefited. Banknifty is able to hold its ground very well. After 11th May, it has not even fallen back to its first legitimate support level of 43253. Thats where we need to credit the bulls. I strongly felt we might breach support today, but the 14.15 hourly candle (+181pts) really surprised me. --- Today's analysis We opened inline and fell in the perfect slope as per the momentum set yesterday. There was no surge in volatility or abrupt moves, the fall was linear, steady and slow. At 11.30 there was a brief recovery till 12.20. The fall after that from 43601 to 43390 was looking like a possible candidate for further follow-up selling. Unfortunately that did not come and instead we had a reversal of 323pts that helped banknifty close the day with no loss. We have been seeing the 14.30 to close moves on all expiry days, it seems its very easy for the big boys to play out their strategy late in the day. The option premiums are unaffected as the decay has eaten into all the juice and just the near ATM strikes are all that matters. The real moves only if it comes early in the day will set a directional trend. Since we have expiries very often now, its quite possible to get the results with very little disruption. Although its good for option sellers in the short term - what it does is reduce the premiums in the long run. --- 15mts chart is the perfect range bound flattish pattern. There was a brief period when we just broke down from the usual range. Due to this break, I was assuming we will have more downward momentum. Only to have ended the day with worthless PUTS. --- 1hr has formed an odd shaped triple top, due the the awkwardness of this shape - I am not even pretty sure if it will work or not. This is formed near the ATH. Again the value of something bigger happening is highly dependent on the support levels of 43253 getting broken. As long as that level remain intact - whatever pattern that gets formed will not count.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram