Banknifty 7 Aug 23 AnalysisIf the market gap-ups, it will fall after touching the resistance. If the market opens flat Goes up, will sell at resistance
Bankniftyoptions
04 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on BankNifty - no change in stanceBanknifty on the other hand is still in the bearish zone and still continues to provide some hope for the handful of bears that are left. Even though we ended up with 0.82% gains compared to 0.7% of Nifty, banks are still not out of bear hold.
The reason is the price action. We had an intraday rally of 601pts ~ 1.35% and then a fall of 525pts ~ 1.17%. Although I changed my stance of Nifty from bearish to neutral, I do not wish to change the stance of banknifty. I prefer to go with bearish bias, but the situations are not conducive for a fall. The crash in India VIX to 10.57% ~ -5.48% is the biggest example.
There is absolutely no fear, the options prices are reflective of that. Since the premiums have dropped, an option seller would be quite scary to take naked positions home. A small rise in volatility will unleash the beast in banknifty - an area to look for is the “Loan growth” reported by the banks and not just their quarterly revenue or profits. Loan growth shows the actual demand. Are people coming in flocks to take new loans? That too with high interest rates?
02 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on BankNifty | Bearish trend continues From yesterday we were bearish, so the moves in the forenoon session gave us some validation. But it was nothing like Nifty, the cuts in banknifty were not aggressive even though we lost similar points. The options flow was not indicating that deep a fall till afternoon - the premiums on nifty was far superior than banknifty (which has been unusual lately). Sometimes cannot really differentiate which has a higher beta - nifty or banknifty.
Banknifty fell 612pts by 12.00, then 412pts between 12.50 to 14.20 and the final recovery of 361pts in the last hour ensured the final loss was only 1.31% ~ 596pts which is not bad at all. If we stay like this, then banknifty will have to take leadership in the bearish trend. Since it has a 38% weightage - the institutions may target the financial sector to drive down the prices on Nifty too.
The 2 horizontal lines is a safe zone for banknifty, a strong break of 44598 will give bears total control and the double top would have given some bulls to take a breather. We will continue to have a bearish bias till proven wrong.
03 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on BankNifty Weekly Expiry Analysis 🐻🐻BankNifty Weekly Analysis
Banknifty has fallen an impressive 3.18% compared to just 1.89% of Nifty. The major reason for that is
Banknifty always acts as leading indicator in a trend change
NiftyIT and Reliance were supporting Nifty in the last week.
Once the US market started falling due to the Fitch rating downgrade, NiftyIT started correcting which ensured Nifty’s breakdown. Now why BankNifty chart pattern screamed a bearish opportunity before Nifty - I really dont know. The price action of 27th Jul was very strange and unusual.
BankNifty Daily Analysis
Today’s price action was in perfect harmony with yesterday’s. The ease with which the chart pattern could be plotted was as simple as going short in today’s expiry. The day started pretty ordinary for OTM options, but after 10.00 the premiums started jumping indicating a market trending opportunity.
The real move came only after 11.30 wherein we dropped 591pts ~ 1.32% till 14.10. Overall we fell 754pts from High to low of which ~80% came after 11.30. There was also a decent recovery of 325pts ~ 0.73% in the last 1hr 20mts.
The final close of just 1.07% ~ 482pts loss is not a deal breaker at all. Basically the market participants are still euphoric and the fear level is absolutely near zero. The VIX falling today even after a 6% surge intraday is proof. For push down of prices - we would need more intense selling on HDFCBK, ICICIBK, SBIN, AXISBANK which has a decent FII exposure and has seen a one-way rally.
The double top pattern from yesterday has now changed into a head and shoulders further reconfirming our short side possibilities. Until proven wrong, we prefer to go short.
Bank Nifty next moveBank Nifty next move in few days as per my opinion, may take pull back and fall down with a rally. please share your view in comment section
#BANKNIFTY… Looking good for this level#BANKNIFTY...
Intraday as well as swing trade
All levels given in charts ...
IF good potential seen then we work in options also
if activate then possible a good movement Keep eye on this ...
We take trade only when it activates...
Possible to give good target
TRADING FACTS
01 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on BankNifty | The bears havent left townBanknfty fell 309pts ~ 0.68% from the day’s high to the day’s low. The gap up open was a surprise but the fall wasn't. Unlike Nifty, banknify is out of bearish hold yet. However the inability to push down prices even after getting an initial momentum during the day may not go in favor of the bears.
The top formed today (encircled in blue) may be considered as the first lower high as we have respected the M like pattern (double top). I wish to change my bias from neutral to bearish for banknifty for tomorrow.
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Comment with your thoughts, opinion or bias, I will respond with the levels I am watching for tomorrow !
BankNifty Trade Setup for 31-07-2023BankNifty important intraday levels to watch for 31-07-2023
#Support: 45240
Short if candle closes below 45240
#resistance: 45500
Long if candle closes above 45500
#Targets on downside after break of support.
Target 1= 45040
Target 2= 45800
#Targets on upside after break of resistance.
Target 1= 45670
Target 2= 45790
Target 3= 45980
Remember each level will act as a support and resistance individually so there is a probability of reversal on either side. Please do your own research before initiating any trade. Always keep stoploss in order to protect your capital.
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28 Jul ’23 Post Mortem on BankNifty | Bears are still in controlBanknifty did not disappoint the bears as much as Nifty did today. The day began with a gap down right at the swing low of yesterday and in no time we reached the 45380 levels. From there we had a gradual drop to the intraday low of 45238.
There was a pullback of 272pts ~ 0.6% but bears managed to close the day with a total cut of 0.46% ~ 211pts below yesterday’s close. NiftyIT had a bigger fall today, but the interesting aspect is the sector rotation was absent between the IT and banks.
Instead all the other major sectors like energy, metals, fmcg took the initiative to keep Nifty close to green and away from a bear attack.
On the 1hr TF we continue to hold onto our bearish view as long as the double top pattern holds.
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Comment with your thoughts, opinion or bias, I will respond with mine :)
FASP levels for Bank Nifty 31/07/2023The FASP for BankNifty is listed for 31-07-2023. You can add this levels to your trade setup for better results. This should not be the only indicator but an additional tool to increase your winning possibilities.
What is Fibolysis Anchor SupRes Points(FASP)?
It is a unique level arrived by using Fibonacci Retracement , Fibonacci Extension , Standard Pivot levels under various Timeframes. It is an extensively analyzed level to draw the support and resistance levels for the next day. You can use these levels along with your trade setup to increase your winning odds.
Validity of the levels: 1 Day
How to use these levels?
The three levels on both sides are usually easily achievable. The Targets above are bit difficult to achieve in a single trading session. I use this fact to write intraday positions and to buy options.
Color Coding: Green is regular support and buying area, Red is strong exit area
Disclaimer: This is shared in the interest of educational purpose and for knowledge enhancement. Kindly refer it in the same light. I am not responsible for any profits or loss incurred based on this information.
Banknifty weekly analysis for 31/07/23.Banknifty has formed a halt candle this week after a nice bullish move last week.
On the daily time frame, it has taken a double support from 20 ema and 61.8% Fibonacci levels.
The market has formed a doji on the daily chart. Though market has given a breakdown of the range it was trading but there is still confusion where will it move.
On the hourly charts, market has closed between both the moving average. There are chance of market testing the 200 ema and if it also closed below it, 44500 levels can also be tested.
The market is looking bullish on the weekly charts, confusing on daily charts and bearish on the hourly charts. Watch the market for intraday trades and closing of daily for swing and positional trades.
Support :- 45300, 45100
Resistance :- 45500, 45650
Banknifty is trading in an area where there is resistance and support in small range. Small targets should be taken in this kind of market as there can be a sideways market.
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
BANKNIFTY oscillating in big range BANKNIFTY is currently moving in a big 3,000 point range from 43,400 - 46,400 with 1,000 points support resistance zones and currently finding support at 45,400 area .
Longer term outlook remains bullish and might test 46,400 in coming days .
Cheers!
Banknifty trade setup for 28-07-2023BankNifty important intraday levels to watch for 28-07-2023
#Support: 45320
Short if candle closes below 45320.
#resistance: 45550
Long if candle closes above 45550.
#Targets on downside after break of support.
Target 1= 45120
Target 2= 44750-44720
#Targets on upside after break of resistance.
Target 1= 45790
Target 2= 46040
Target 3= 46380
Remember each level will act as a support and resistance individually so there is a probability of reversal on either side. Please do your own research before initiating any trade. Always keep stoploss in order to protect your capital.
Follow us for more such information and educational ideas. Give it a like if you appreciate the idea.
Queries will be answered in comment section.
27 Jul ’23 Post Mortem on BankNifty - Bears are getting ready 🐻Banknifty Monthly Analysis
Banknifty has moved up 1353pts ~ 3.05% this expiry month, approx 0.7% lesser than Nifty’s movement. One possible reason was the slight retracement between 07 to 14 July whereas Nifty had managed that week pretty well.
BankNifty Weekly Analysis
Banknifty scored over Nifty during the weekly price move wherein BN lost only 0.85% ~ 391pts compared to 1.34% loss in Nifty. It was for this reason that we had gone short in Nifty last friday and did not do anything on BN.
BankNifty Daily Analysis
The day started quite boring today, we had a gap up opening due to which all the options premium were absolutely dead. I started expiry trades with Nifty options as they had more air left in it vs bank nifty. But as soon as the fall started, the CE premiums were jumping exponentially. This was true for Nifty options also. To get a favourable price I had to wait till 12.45 after which I switched to banknifty options.
The CE premiums remained unusually high 14.15 after which they started dropping. While all this happened India VIX did not swing that much - remember we even had a -10% day this week on volatility. Probably VIX thinks the downward move is again a positional one & will be done and dusted by tomorrow?
We see a M pattern i.e double top right at the all time high levels. Such a pattern cannot be left unnoticed and today’s move may just give it more relevance. On a 1hr TF we had all red candles today except the last one(which had only 15mts in it)
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Please comment with your thoughts, opinion or bias, I will respond with mine!
Banknifty Expiry trade setupBankNifty important intraday levels to watch for 27-07-2023
#Support: 45900
Short if candle closes below 45900.
#resistance: 46160
Long if candle closes above 46160.
#Targets on downside after break of support.
Target 1= 45770
Target 2= 45620
#Targets on upside after break of resistance.
Target 1=46320
Target 2= 46490
Remember each level will act as a support and resistance individually so there is a probability of reversal on either side. Please do your own research before initiating any trade. Always keep stoploss in order to protect your capital.
Follow us for more such information and educational ideas. Give it a like if you appreciate the idea.
Queries will be answered in comment section.
BANKNIFTY ADVANCE GANN LEVEL MATECHED TO PREVIOUS LEVEL 25-7-23Our levels worked perfectly, Banknifty respected all the the Levels of Fibonacci and Gann Fann.
Hoping expiry near to 45800. Let See
:)
A boost is needed
Banknifty daily analysis for 27/07/23 (monthly expiry).Banknifty has finally traded and even closed above the 46k levels. After a gap up opening, it fill the gap and in the second half crossed the 46k levels.
It has closed near the resistance zone of 46100 levels. Banknifty consolidated and gave a break out above 45950 levels.
On the hourly charts, it has closed above the 20 ema and it respected the levels after a gap up opening.
Tomorrow is monthly expiry and there can a trending market.
On 15 minutes charts, the market totally respected the 20 ema and took support from the level, finally closing above it.
Support :- 45980, 45830
Resistance :- 46080, 46250
Banknifty has retest the 38.2% levels and today has traded in a parallel channel. The breakout/breakdown can give nice target on the monthly expiry as there has been consolidation.
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
BankNifty Intraday Trade Setup | 25th JulySell BankNifty below 45850 for the marked targets on the chart.
To motivate us, Please like the idea If you agree with the analysis.
Happy Trading!
InvestPro India Team
Banknifty daily analysis for 26/07/23.Banknifty after a gap up opening came of selling initially and closed 80 points lower on the daily close. There is a bearish engulfing candle and market is taking support from 45600 levels.
On the hourly chart, market remained in a 200 points range in the second half of the trading session.
The market has formed resistances on the highs and are near by the trading levels.
On 15 minutes time frame, market traded between both the moving averages and took support from the 200 ema and formed a V shape pattern.
Support :- 45640, 45360
Resistance :- 45920, 46070
The market today remained in a sideway mode and has closed almost flat. Chance of a nice trending market can be seen in the coming days.
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
24 Jul ’23 Post Mortem on BankNifty -Bulls lost control? Not YETI had a long call on banknifty and a short call on nifty50. All of us know very well that the probability of that happening is quite rare. Well we go as per what the chart says, banknifty showed strength on the last working day even when nifty was falling.
Today also banknifty was staying strong until the 286pt fall from 11.30 to 11.55 - just after this price move weak links started appearing among the component stocks. The main culprit for today’s fall was Kotak bank that fell 3.7%. I would really say this could be a start!
When HDFCBK came with results, we discussed the possibility of NPAs rising. In fact a rising NPA in an interest rate rising regime poses the same danger as an avalanche. When cracks start appearing - the breaks are going to be profound. Currently most of the banks will have good quarterly results mainly because they would have pushed the rate hike to their credit accounts (loans). The real test comes in when these loans go bad (default).
I am not inclined to go short on banknifty yet, would like to see the price action for 2 more days before deciding. 45830 levels also might offer a small support - if this breaks then it might be interesting to look out for bearish opportunities. During the closing hour there was a small hint that CALL writers are getting interested - this might help tip the balance to the bearish side!
Banknifty trad eplan for 24-07-2023While BN is yet to achieve its short term target.
Combining with nifty, while nifty fill then gap BN can make its short term target and then reverse with nifty.
Stay cautious, and do not trade random.
21 Jul ’23 Post Mortem on BankNifty, still in a bullish trendBanknifty on the other hand was staying strong today, although it opened gap down, it closed down the distance in the opening 5mts itself. After hitting a new ATH of 46369.5, it started falling gradually.
Banks were not at all looking weak today. Infosys fell due to poor guidance & Reliance fell after the demerger activity. Financial sector along with pharma and auto was providing support to nifty today.
Between 09.25 to 12.25, banknifty shed 442pts ~ 0.95%, this was the period when nifty hit the initial low of the day. The real divergence came between 12.30 to 13.45 where banknifty retraced 318pts but nifty was unable to recover. A deeper look at the options flow would be useful to find the root cause why banknifty had no plans to fall today.
CALL credit spreads were not getting written, this usually drives the options premium and gives a clue if banknifty is about to fall.
The near money PUT premiums were not rising nor the implied volatility.
Banks cannot stay high in isolation, usually when nifty makes large directional movement - the components & sub indices also align their direction in tandem. This is true even if they are in a counter trend independently.
Banknifty is not looking bearish nor any short opportunity is directly visible, we will assess the situation on monday on how Nifty reacts to RELIANCE, SBI, ICICI numbers.
20 Jul ’23 Post Mortem on BankNifty | Bull run is not stopping!Banknifty also outperformed this week, between the last expiry & today it is up 1443pts ~ 3.23%.
Unlike Nifty50 my positional call on Banknifty did not go wrong, that was mainly because we negated a bearish trend line this week. Usually when the trendlines are broken the breakout momentum is so strong that it could take the index to an overbought level too.
Daily Analysis
Banknifty’s 5mts pattern has some story to tell, notice the period till 10.00 where nifty was falling, banknifty held its ground. In fact the real rally did not take off till 11.45. From there it went up 497pts ~ 1.09% by 14.30. This rally from a point of strength gave a steady grip for Nifty to play its natural game!
We made a new ATH of 46256 today, the weird thing is we had a retracement of 231pts ~ 0.5% between 14.30 to 14.50, the pullback to that was more weird - we gained back all those points in the next 20pts.
The expiry premiums for the PEs were quite unrealistic, the premiums were jumping so aggressively that it gave out a lot of easy money minting opportunities. Usually the volatility increases like this during market crashes. Probably this would be the first time where the PUT options were in deep green when the markets were going up.
