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PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 09 Mar 2023 ExpiryInteresting moves by NSE:BANKNIFTY today, the closing statement from my yesterday's report said. "I personally would like to wait for the range to be broken decisively before changing my bearish bias." Got lucky with the analysis yesterday as NSE:BANKNIFTY was consistently proving me wrong in this calendar month so far. But i am sure you were not expecting a bearish move today - atleast thats not how the day started. NSE:BANKNIFTY opened at 41532 made a strong 1st candle hit the resistance line at 41624 and then made 2 strong red candles to go lower ~ 41456. From 10.00 there was strong momentum from these levels until 11.40 where it went back to the same resistance level. An upmove of 220pts and most of them really thought NSE:BANKNIFTY will take out the resistance and hit 42000 today. Since i was proven wrongly for 4 to 5 occasions this series, i really did not bet against. I took a 41200/41000 debit spread just to hedge some of the OTM puts i sold as part of expiry today. The biggest blunder that happened was the strike selection, i could have gone with 41300/41200 instead of 41200/41000 as the entry cost was not that much. But the last 30mts move did not really move the needle for 41200, but it benefited 41300 as it went in the money. Just got unlucky today. Unlike other traders, i do not prefer to post my winners and say i got X amount of money by doing Y amount of trade. Mainly because Its just cheap bragging No body learns when you win, real learning comes from losers. Coming back to the topic, the fall from 11.45 to EOD was 424pts ~ 1.02%, not a steep fall but with 2 legs. I was expecting this yesterday, but the move from 13.50 to close yesterday went against by short bets. Again today's move has not done anything different in the 5mts TF but its quite interesting in the 1hr chart - we will analyze it soon. --- 15mts TF shows consecutive rejection at the 41624 resistance level. The chart is not bearish in the 15mts TF yet, for that to happen 40140 support level has to be broken. That is quite some distance away. --- 1hr chart has made an interesting double top (M pattern) at least for now. Both the tops at a crucial resistance level is a good action item too. But from 27th Jan we are still in this broad range, if in the coming days bank nifty takes out the supports in quick succession then we can look forward for a huge fall. Thats mainly because of the time spent in consolidation. to view the 4 charts in today's discussion visit viswaram. com
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 08 Mar 2023Simply unexplainable moves by NSE:BANKNIFTY from 13.50 today. From the traders fraternity i saw few group of traders planning for long trades - they got immensely rewarded. For some reason i was keeping by bearish bias & hence ended the day quite unsatisfactorily. Overnight we had a dip in SP:SPX -1.53%, TVC:DJI -1.72%, NDQ -1.22% - seriously i thought we will break down below 41000 level today. Gap down open at 41178 and the first 15mts got me really glued to the screen. For a moment i really thought my 41000/40900 debit spread is going to reward me nicely. But the 4th and 5th candle shattered my hopes, NSE:BANKNIFTY traced back to the resistance and then stayed there till 13.50 4h 15mts BN was around this support/resistance zone of 41311. When i look back i realized NSE:BANKNIFTY was gaining strength to break out not break down. Initially i felt the resistance of 41311 is getting rejected - but it was not. Then we had the beautiful 326pt rally that helped NSE:BANKNIFTY hit the next resistance. If there was some more time left may be this would have broken too! Now i am seriously hurt for all the bears out there, how come our market stays buoyant when the US market sunk in red yesterday. Who is buying? And what makes the Indian stock market so much exciting even at these high valuations? --- The 15mts chart is now looking bullish as we took out 3 resistances from 23 March. --- 1hr TF is yet to turn bullish, as of now its still in the range for 40 days now. The break out or the break down will have immense strength mainly because of the consolidation that has happened for the last 2 months. As it stands most traders would be biased to look out for break out. I personally would like to wait for the range to be broken decisively before changing my bearish bias. to view all 6 charts in discussion today visit viswaram. com
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
FASP levels for Bank Nifty 08/03/2023The FASP for BankNifty is listed for 08-03-2023 . You can add this levels to your trade setup for better results. This should not be the only indicator but an additional tool to increase your winning possibilities. What is Fibolysis Anchor SupRes Points(FASP)? It is a unique level arrived by using Fibonacci Retracement , Fibonacci Extension , Standard Pivot levels under various Timeframes. It is an extensively analyzed level to draw the support and resistance levels for the next day. You can use these levels along with your trade setup to increase your winning odds. Validity of the levels: 1 Day How to use these levels? The three levels on both sides are usually easily achievable. The Targets above are bit difficult to achieve in a single trading session. I use this fact to write intraday positions and to buy options. Color Coding: Green is regular support and buying area, Red is strong exit area Disclaimer: This is shared in the interest of educational purpose and for knowledge enhancement. Kindly refer it in the same light. I am not responsible for any profits or loss incurred based on this information.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by SathishChandrasekaran
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 06 Mar 2023Once again the perfect day for the straddlers, open & close almost at the same level ! But for every other trader, it was a tough day to plan. Gap up opening & hitting the resistance by 09.45. The 30mts of move would have changed everyone bias to the long side. That was 1% ~ 429pts upmove considering the gap up also. The surge in the ATM & near OTMs were so huge that traders were busy exiting their short position or adding on to fresh longs. Check the volume build up for 42000 CE, 42500 CE and 43000 CE in the opening 30mts - you will get a fair idea on what i am referring to. But here is where NSE:BANKNIFTY almost trapped most of them. 41629 resistance was quite hard to beat. After spending 40mts at this level we saw a drop to the 1st support of 41309. And the next 1hr 35mts was spent at this support level. Not breaking down showing strength & conviction of bulls. Not rising up showing bulls are taking some rest after the move on Friday. NSE:BANKNIFTY underperformed NSE:NIFTY and NiftyIT today after outperforming for so many days in succession.  --- 15mts chart is not showing bearishness yet, but today's move creating a rounding top may be an interim swing high for this week. Thats what i feel personally. Since we have a holi-day on 07 Mar, the reopening on 8th will have a huge gap up or gap down based on how US market trades today & tomorrow. If the gap up takes out the resistance then 15mts will show super bullishness. --- 1hr TF is still not bullish according to me, mainly because the resistance is still holding. 2 other times in the last month we did have a retest & rejection of this resistance level So for 40 days and 4 hours we are in a flattish market but which has really given a scare to the bulls. And trust me the bears have not been able to capitalize in this timeline (people like me) because every attempt to create a lower low has been nullified. Bank nifty's real scare is on the upside, because the downside seems like pretty protected. The low premiums on the PEs is definitely an indication that most of the participants are not even expecting a 500 pts fall in this expiry. However once it falls this 500pts the dynamics will change and the option pricing will look attractive to take some bets. Till its best that people like me wait & preserve capital. to view the 5 charts in today's discussion visit viswaram. com
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
Banknifty daily analysis for 07/03/23.Banknifty on the daily time frame has given a doji and closed only 99 points higher after a gap of 150 points. In the first hour of the market there was a nice bullish candle but the market couldn't sustain the levels and started to melt down closing around 41350 points. There is a bullish moving averages cross over, on the hourly time frame, which shows some bullish movement in the coming days. The index has been taking resistance around the round figure of 42k. Once the resistance is taken out, the market will be in a bullish move and can touch new highs. On 15 minutes time frame, the market has consolidated very nice in a parallel channel and closed near the 20 ema. Support :- 41250, 40900 Resistance :- 41650, 41750, 42000 Wait for the price action near the price levels before entering the markets.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by TheMamboMomentum
FASP levels for Bank Nifty 06/03/2023The FASP for BankNifty is listed for 06-03-2023 . You can add this levels to your trade setup for better results. This should not be the only indicator but an additional tool to increase your winning possibilities. What is Fibolysis Anchor SupRes Points(FASP)? It is a unique level arrived by using Fibonacci Retracement , Fibonacci Extension , Standard Pivot levels under various Timeframes. It is an extensively analyzed level to draw the support and resistance levels for the next day. You can use these levels along with your trade setup to increase your winning odds. Validity of the levels: 1 Day How to use these levels? The three levels on both sides are usually easily achievable. The Targets above are bit difficult to achieve in a single trading session. I use this fact to write intraday positions and to buy options. Color Coding: Green is regular support and buying area, Red is strong exit area Disclaimer: This is shared in the interest of educational purpose and for knowledge enhancement. Kindly refer it in the same light. I am not responsible for any profits or loss incurred based on this information.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by SathishChandrasekaran
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 03 Mar 2023 Well the day did not go as planned for me, if you have read my yesterday's report you might be cursing me by now. I was pretty bearish, atleast that was what the 1hr chart told me. So when NSE:BANKNIFTY opened gap up at 40671 i thought the first resistance at 40698 will hold. After a while i thought 40868 resistance might hold - and here is where i got the calculations pretty wrong. I had taken a bearish position anticipating a reversal. But what happened was a near vertical upmove with little or no pullback till 11.40. A sharp upside move of 2.38% ~ 959pts by the 2hr 30mts. There was no major pullback or reversal. There was just a small pause at the 41311 resistance level. But we cannot confirm that it was the resistance that came into play, the traders would have taken the profits & exited few positions. Its a weekend and we cannot really say how the US markets could react after we close. NSE:SBIN up 5.14% NSE:INDUSINDBK up 2.21% NSE:HDFCBANK 1.95% NSE:KOTAKBANK & NSE:ICICIBANK up 1.7% - surely all the banks were on steroids today. Since i couldnt believe what was happening, i was caught like a deer in the headlamps. Almost couldnt take any trade to firefight my losing position. So this not only negates my yesterday's bearish bias but changes the structure of the rally. Lets examine the 15mts & 1hr chart to get more clarity. --- 15mts shows the breakaway gap & the sharp surge. Remember yesterday i said the move on wednesday appears fake & the one on thursday shows an interim top like formation. Negate that ! I am still not bullish yet on 15mts - i am confused. --- 1hr shows the 2 strong green candles that followed the 5 red candles yesterday. What a stark contrast. Well i am still keeping bearish hopes alive on the 1hr Tf. You might think i am crazy. But still. If 41600 gets taken out in the next session, you bet i will flip. Till then i will continue to look for shorting opportunities.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 01 MAR 2023Yesterday we discussed a possibility of finding a trend on wednesday, read yesterdays report as the related item Although i was not sure about the direction yesterday, it turned out on the bullish side. Deep down i really wanted to see NSE:BANKNIFTY break down & fall to the support levels of 39742 - mainly because the option premiums were very low due to the lack of volatility. Its better to refrain from option selling than sell at low premiums, thats because with a beast like NSE:BANKNIFTY  - its hard to run for cover when the rally is against your short position, be it CE or PE. Now thats alright, because there is no guarantee that a fisherman gets his fish everyday, still he packs his gear & goes fishing. When he gets 1, he enjoys & when he gets none, he isnt disheartened. Option selling is more like fishing, its because the option seller has to wait for the highest premium to sell (sell at top) to reduce any risk of counter rally. So if he commits first, and the premium goes up - he either adds more position or squares off at a loss eventhough he got the direction correct. Option buyer on the other hand need not worry of buying at the bottom. All that matters is if he can find another buyer at a higher price & exit. Direction is the only benefit option buyer has. Coming back to the post mortem analysis, NSE:BANKNIFTY opened gap up at 40473 made a red first candle and then started moving higher. The rally stopped when the resistance level of 40704 was hit. We had a 1% ~ 403pts upmove by 11.40 considering prices from prev. close. The main reason for the rally was the outperformance by NSE:SBIN +2.66% & NSE:AXISBANK +2.49%. NSE:INDUSINDBK also support strongly at +2.11%. Now Axis rallied due to the news event connecting the acquisition of Citi bank's assets, SBI - i really dont know. NSE:HDFCBANK & NSE:ICICIBANK did not move that much today, there was no bearish sentiment either. Otherwise the smart boys would have reduced NSE:HDFCBANK & NSE:ICICIBANK positions to keep the niftybank in the flattish territory.  Now this 1.07% ~ 429pts rally today by NSE:BANKNIFTY did not break the resistance conclusively. It did close right at that level though. The next move will be exciting as further upmove will negate bearish bias on all lower timeframes. --- 15mts TF is showing the brief upmove & a possible break from the current bearish leg. Once it goes above 41000 NSE:BANKNIFTY will no longer be bearish in the 15mts scale. --- 1hr TF - you might have noticed the W pattern marked in cyan color. What you might have failed to see is the beautiful bearish wave right from the 14th dec. So if bank nifty has to negate this bias it has to take out the resistance very quickly. Yes the current W pattern may give it momentum - but will it really hold only the next 2 sessions will tell. to view the 4 charts in today's discussion visit viswaram. com
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram