PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 09 Mar 2023 Expiry
Interesting moves by
BANKNIFTY
today, the closing statement from my yesterday's report said.
"I personally would like to wait for the range to be broken decisively before changing my bearish bias."
Got lucky with the analysis yesterday as
BANKNIFTY
was consistently proving me wrong in this calendar month so far. But i am sure you were not expecting a bearish move today - atleast thats not how the day started.
BANKNIFTY
opened at 41532 made a strong 1st candle hit the resistance line at 41624 and then made 2 strong red candles to go lower ~ 41456. From 10.00 there was strong momentum from these levels until 11.40 where it went back to the same resistance level.
An upmove of 220pts and most of them really thought
BANKNIFTY
will take out the resistance and hit 42000 today.
Since i was proven wrongly for 4 to 5 occasions this series, i really did not bet against. I took a 41200/41000 debit spread just to hedge some of the OTM puts i sold as part of expiry today.
The biggest blunder that happened was the strike selection, i could have gone with 41300/41200 instead of 41200/41000 as the entry cost was not that much. But the last 30mts move did not really move the needle for 41200, but it benefited 41300 as it went in the money. Just got unlucky today.
Unlike other traders, i do not prefer to post my winners and say i got X amount of money by doing Y amount of trade. Mainly because
Its just cheap bragging
No body learns when you win, real learning comes from losers.
Coming back to the topic, the fall from 11.45 to EOD was 424pts ~ 1.02%, not a steep fall but with 2 legs. I was expecting this yesterday, but the move from 13.50 to close yesterday went against by short bets.
Again today's move has not done anything different in the 5mts TF but its quite interesting in the 1hr chart - we will analyze it soon.
---
15mts TF shows consecutive rejection at the 41624 resistance level. The chart is not bearish in the 15mts TF yet, for that to happen 40140 support level has to be broken. That is quite some distance away.
---
1hr chart has made an interesting double top (M pattern) at least for now. Both the tops at a crucial resistance level is a good action item too.
But from 27th Jan we are still in this broad range, if in the coming days bank nifty takes out the supports in quick succession then we can look forward for a huge fall. Thats mainly because of the time spent in consolidation.
to view the 4 charts in today's discussion visit viswaram. com
BANKNIFTY
today, the closing statement from my yesterday's report said. "I personally would like to wait for the range to be broken decisively before changing my bearish bias."
Got lucky with the analysis yesterday as
BANKNIFTY
was consistently proving me wrong in this calendar month so far. But i am sure you were not expecting a bearish move today - atleast thats not how the day started.
BANKNIFTY
opened at 41532 made a strong 1st candle hit the resistance line at 41624 and then made 2 strong red candles to go lower ~ 41456. From 10.00 there was strong momentum from these levels until 11.40 where it went back to the same resistance level. An upmove of 220pts and most of them really thought
BANKNIFTY
will take out the resistance and hit 42000 today. Since i was proven wrongly for 4 to 5 occasions this series, i really did not bet against. I took a 41200/41000 debit spread just to hedge some of the OTM puts i sold as part of expiry today.
The biggest blunder that happened was the strike selection, i could have gone with 41300/41200 instead of 41200/41000 as the entry cost was not that much. But the last 30mts move did not really move the needle for 41200, but it benefited 41300 as it went in the money. Just got unlucky today.
Unlike other traders, i do not prefer to post my winners and say i got X amount of money by doing Y amount of trade. Mainly because
Its just cheap bragging
No body learns when you win, real learning comes from losers.
Coming back to the topic, the fall from 11.45 to EOD was 424pts ~ 1.02%, not a steep fall but with 2 legs. I was expecting this yesterday, but the move from 13.50 to close yesterday went against by short bets.
Again today's move has not done anything different in the 5mts TF but its quite interesting in the 1hr chart - we will analyze it soon.
---
15mts TF shows consecutive rejection at the 41624 resistance level. The chart is not bearish in the 15mts TF yet, for that to happen 40140 support level has to be broken. That is quite some distance away.
---
1hr chart has made an interesting double top (M pattern) at least for now. Both the tops at a crucial resistance level is a good action item too.
But from 27th Jan we are still in this broad range, if in the coming days bank nifty takes out the supports in quick succession then we can look forward for a huge fall. Thats mainly because of the time spent in consolidation.
to view the 4 charts in today's discussion visit viswaram. com
