PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 10 Mar 2023
Promising price action today if you are bearish. The double top M pattern on the hourly time frame did its job quite nicely today. (Thank god it worked)
But seriously what happened today is no reflection to the handout from US markets.
SPX
was down 1.85% over night & our
NIFTY
is only 1% down. Agree
BANKNIFTY
was down 1.87%, but remember
SPF
were down a whooping 4.1% yesterday.
If you couldnt stand the 1.87% crash in
BANKNIFTY
today, imagine what a 4% fall would have looked like. It would have been a blood bath !
This is how today's price action looked like in the 5mts TF. Mega gap down opening at 40805 & a strong red 1st candle. And that was just it - there were no other alarming jumps or panic after that.
BANKNIFTY
stuck to the 40350 to 40600 range after that. And thats the exact reason why the options premium did not hit the moon. In fact
This is how the PE strikes in multiples of 500 traded today. The last 1 hour the premiums started dropping quite quickly, translating to no fear.
To prove the point, check the India VIX its at 13.4%, US VIX is 24.8% which means US VIX is 85% higher than Indian. The fear in US is too high compared to just a normal casual day in India. Why isnt the VIX rising - no idea !
VIX goes up only when there is panic, and as it stands now there is no panic in India. I personally dont prefer to see panic in India, but my point is - If the global markets are facing the pain, it will definitely hit here. And the longer it takes for that, the deeper is the pain.
---
15mts TF was not looking bearish yesterday, but the gap down opening and bank nifty's reluctance to close the gap may have just tipped the scale in favor of the bears.
But this is still not enough, 40140 has to be taken out by the next session for the current momentum to continue.
---
1hr cements the analysis of yesterday. 39742 has to be taken out in this series for nice fireworks to happen. Today might have just been a warning shot, the real action is yet to come.
I am not predicting, i am pretty bad at that. But how the chart is screaming for a direction for the last 44 days is an indication. The beast called as bank nifty was kept in cage ie between support 39742 & 41624 for the last 44 days. So when the opportunity comes to break away or break down - the distance it travels will be very steep.
But seriously what happened today is no reflection to the handout from US markets.
SPX
was down 1.85% over night & our
NIFTY
is only 1% down. Agree
BANKNIFTY
was down 1.87%, but remember
SPF
were down a whooping 4.1% yesterday. If you couldnt stand the 1.87% crash in
BANKNIFTY
today, imagine what a 4% fall would have looked like. It would have been a blood bath ! This is how today's price action looked like in the 5mts TF. Mega gap down opening at 40805 & a strong red 1st candle. And that was just it - there were no other alarming jumps or panic after that.
BANKNIFTY
stuck to the 40350 to 40600 range after that. And thats the exact reason why the options premium did not hit the moon. In fact This is how the PE strikes in multiples of 500 traded today. The last 1 hour the premiums started dropping quite quickly, translating to no fear.
To prove the point, check the India VIX its at 13.4%, US VIX is 24.8% which means US VIX is 85% higher than Indian. The fear in US is too high compared to just a normal casual day in India. Why isnt the VIX rising - no idea !
VIX goes up only when there is panic, and as it stands now there is no panic in India. I personally dont prefer to see panic in India, but my point is - If the global markets are facing the pain, it will definitely hit here. And the longer it takes for that, the deeper is the pain.
---
15mts TF was not looking bearish yesterday, but the gap down opening and bank nifty's reluctance to close the gap may have just tipped the scale in favor of the bears.
But this is still not enough, 40140 has to be taken out by the next session for the current momentum to continue.
---
1hr cements the analysis of yesterday. 39742 has to be taken out in this series for nice fireworks to happen. Today might have just been a warning shot, the real action is yet to come.
I am not predicting, i am pretty bad at that. But how the chart is screaming for a direction for the last 44 days is an indication. The beast called as bank nifty was kept in cage ie between support 39742 & 41624 for the last 44 days. So when the opportunity comes to break away or break down - the distance it travels will be very steep.
