PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 15 Mar 2023
Nifty bank has not fallen enough, we have not even scratched the surface yet. The pace at which global banks are going insolvent - the real fear has not hit India yet !
Traders, investors & public are just cool here, look at the India VIX - we are still at 16.29% compared with US VIX of 27.2% ~ it means we are trading with 67% lower volatility.
Now - the reason i brought this up is to correlate this data to the important support that
BANKNIFTY
broke this week. Further trades may pick up huge momentum & the speed at which things happen - we may not even have time to think.
Let alone using a calculator & assessing the payoff chart of an option strategy.
Coming back to the main topic,
BANKNIFTY
would have trapped you on the long side today. You might have seen the
SPX
,
NDX
and
DJI
perform fantastically overnight and thought
BANKNIFTY
is going to the moon !
It should have, the only reason it did not according to me is because we are below the range breakdown level. An important support that gave away yesterday is a big deal, esp after a long 45 to 46 day consolidation.
So the upmoves if any should be traps. Open was gap up at 39777 and we had 2 legs of fall today.
The first leg of 1% ~ 399pts fall between open to 10.50 and the 2nd leg of 1.93% ~ 766pts between 11.30 to 15.15.
The second leg was more furious, that may be because of the resistance rejection between 11.10 to 11.30. The rejection would have given the bears more conviction to go all-in. Also the small pull back helped pump up the premium & thereby making it easy for new CE credit spreads.
Yesterday's swing low is taken out today - and to an extent we can say that the 39742 support is safely broken.
I am not sure if its relevant, but i found it fishy. There was a 1.27% ~ 498pts rally yesterday 12.00 to 12.30. This would have been the longs taken for the Finnifty expiration tuesday. I am not saying its a manipulation - but this would have given false indicators for the trend. Most of them would have believed that we have hit the interim bottom. This along with today's gap up would have urged them to go long.
---
15mts showing conclusive evidence of bearish pattern as the resistance zone is rejected.
---
1hr TF - cannot really believe all the candles today were RED ! We can look forward to further downside moves as to a certain level of confidence i can say 39742 is broken.
The breakdown is confirmed after a range formation over the last 47 days.
to view all 6 charts in today's discussion visit viswaram. com
Traders, investors & public are just cool here, look at the India VIX - we are still at 16.29% compared with US VIX of 27.2% ~ it means we are trading with 67% lower volatility.
Now - the reason i brought this up is to correlate this data to the important support that
BANKNIFTY
broke this week. Further trades may pick up huge momentum & the speed at which things happen - we may not even have time to think. Let alone using a calculator & assessing the payoff chart of an option strategy.
Coming back to the main topic,
BANKNIFTY
would have trapped you on the long side today. You might have seen the
SPX
,
NDX
and
DJI
perform fantastically overnight and thought
BANKNIFTY
is going to the moon ! It should have, the only reason it did not according to me is because we are below the range breakdown level. An important support that gave away yesterday is a big deal, esp after a long 45 to 46 day consolidation.
So the upmoves if any should be traps. Open was gap up at 39777 and we had 2 legs of fall today.
The first leg of 1% ~ 399pts fall between open to 10.50 and the 2nd leg of 1.93% ~ 766pts between 11.30 to 15.15.
The second leg was more furious, that may be because of the resistance rejection between 11.10 to 11.30. The rejection would have given the bears more conviction to go all-in. Also the small pull back helped pump up the premium & thereby making it easy for new CE credit spreads.
Yesterday's swing low is taken out today - and to an extent we can say that the 39742 support is safely broken.
I am not sure if its relevant, but i found it fishy. There was a 1.27% ~ 498pts rally yesterday 12.00 to 12.30. This would have been the longs taken for the Finnifty expiration tuesday. I am not saying its a manipulation - but this would have given false indicators for the trend. Most of them would have believed that we have hit the interim bottom. This along with today's gap up would have urged them to go long.
---
15mts showing conclusive evidence of bearish pattern as the resistance zone is rejected.
---
1hr TF - cannot really believe all the candles today were RED ! We can look forward to further downside moves as to a certain level of confidence i can say 39742 is broken.
The breakdown is confirmed after a range formation over the last 47 days.
to view all 6 charts in today's discussion visit viswaram. com
