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Bankniftypostmortem

11 Jan ’24 — The bulls of BankNifty has run out of fuel!BankNifty Today Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️ Look at what the Gap-up did today to BankNifty, it messed around with the resistance level of 47539. Was it a genuine break? Absolutely NO. Would that have shocked the Bears? Absolutely YES. Gaps are the easiest option available for the manipulators to scare off the retail crowd. 4mts chart link Again the 280+pts quick dip between 14.03 to 14.15 looked quite serious. But the dip buyers made it look like a blip over the next 15 minutes or so. Looks like BN has run out of fuel for any upmoves. 63mts chart link BankNifty is really waiting for a trigger to fall. The tiredness of the bulls is a welcome message for the bears to do their thing. Our stance continues to be bearish for tomorrow despite the neutral day today. Only when the stance of both Nifty50 and BankNifty is in the same direction - we can expect a trending market. Nifty50 could pick a direction due to NiftyIT results tomorrow, if it is down - then it will pull banknifty along with it.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
10 Jan ’24 — Banks did not have the bull-punch today despite N50BankNifty Weekly Expiry Analysis Between the last expiry and today, BN fell 383pts and most importantly breached a support level (47539). Even though the start of the week was good, the bulls gave away the control to the bears by Friday. 16mts chart link BankNifty Today Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️ Unlike Nifty50, BankNifty did not have a strong pullback today. There was no wedge like formation, but the negativity was missing totally. The open was gap-down from which BN recovered decently and then remained range bound. BN was trading in green for most of the time today. 4mts chart link BN is not out of the bearish hold yet. The first thing that has to be taken care of is the 47539 resistance and the best way to take that out is via a gap up. It has become quite predictable these days, the way to go past a level is via a gap-up or gap-down. Neither the bulls nor the bears have the nerve to battle it out during the trading day. 63mts chart link Our stance remains bearish even for tomorrow. Will switch to neutral if we have a 63mts candle above the resistance level marked in blue. Even though we have the Nifty50 expiry tomorrow, the options premiums are looking pretty dead. Hoping BN strikes will have some juice for tomorrow.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
09 Jan ’24 — BankNifty made the BEARS🐻 proud today ! BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️ BankNifty was more sensible today. Firstly the gap-up was not so huge to scare away the bears - so they hung around. Secondly, there was no breakaway momentum, by 11.07 things were getting pretty clear that the upmove ran out of steam. 4mts chart link And when the selling came, it was ferocious. Bears also had to make sure the support level of 47539 had to be taken out with style. The RED candles near that price zone are ample proof of that. The fall was over 782pts ~ 1.63% which took BN into RED. Nifty on the other hand stayed in green thanks to NiftyIT, LT, and ADANI group. 63mts chart link Since we have the BN expiry tomorrow, it may be a treat to watch how the strike price premiums could surge. India VIX was not favoring the bears today, if we have a strong price action in the forenoon the IV is bound to add to the momentum. Our stance of bearishness continues with the first target of 46931 followed by 46574.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
08 Jan ’24 — BankNifty breaks the 47539 support - stance bearishBankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️ The chart of BankNifty was more dramatic and powerful. The total swing range was 765pts ~ 1.59%. The support of 47539 was broken only at 14.31 and there was not much time left for the next leg of fall today. 4mts chart link What BankNifty and Nifty have done in January was to take out the stop loss twice. Last week we saw some strong fight back and they managed to get the stance changed from bearish to neutral. And today the tables have turned and the chart looks bearish. BankNifty has walked ahead of Nifty because it has already broken the ascending channel - so the break of support today should give it some more thrust. 63mts chart link The support is only broken on the lower TF, we ran out of time for further action today. This means that the forenoon session will be quite critical tomorrow. If the bears can hold the banks below the 47539 levels - we could see some action picking up. The options flow also indicated an immense short buildup for the CALLS - which may be indicating tiredness in the uptrend. Our stance for tomorrow is bearish.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
05 Jan ’24 — BankNifty gets a sharp reversal at 14.19 & pulls UPBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ BankNifty opened inline and was looking quite decent till 10.07. The fall that came after that took out 559pts ~ 1.16%. Not quite sure what triggered that fall. Due to this, the impact was felt even on Nifty50. NiftyIT was roaring green at one end and then BankNifty underperforming at the other. 4mts chart link Remember, we changed our stance from bearish to neutral yesterday and this fall started creating conflicting thoughts in our mind. What if the price action we had yesterday was a blip? But we got the right answers between 14.15 to 14.31 when Nifty50 managed to pull back. This also lifted BankNifty to ensure a flat closing for today. 63mts chart link The neutral stance continues. On the downside, we have protection at 47539, and on the upside, the channel bottom line will prove as a minor resistance. As long as BN stays between these two, we will be glad to look out for non-directional option strategies.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
04 Jan ’24 — Banks does the powerlifting for the reversal todayBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ The powerlifting was done by BankNifty today. The Bajaj Finserv and Finance were on fire today and were propelling FinNifty to a higher variance than BankNifty earlier in the day. However, the close ensured the variance was less than 0.2% 4mts chart link Honestly, we did not see this coming. The setup was perfect for a Bear run, the first hour of trade almost froze us so that we could not build onto expiry positions on Nifty. Since the stop loss was hit, we had to make multiple adjustments to stay in green. Was this a turn of events or a blip is something we are not completely sure of? Ideally, the bear run was just starting, and it would be sad if it ran out like this. 63mts chart link It is prudent to draw a new support line at 47539, the level from where we got the inflection today. To reclaim bullishness, BankNifty has to re-enter the ascending channel. If that happens tomorrow then the level to beat is 48700 which would mean it will take out the ATH. Since we changed the stance to neutral from bearish, a sensible move would be to go sideways without breaking the support of 47539.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
03 Jan ’24 — BankNifty holds the line today, Bears still around.BankNifty Weekly Expiry Analysis BN just fell 742pts ~ 1.53% between the last expiry and today, logically it got only 4 working days as the last expiry was on a Thursday. A 742pts move is nothing considering the shape BN is currently in. Since the stance is now bearish, we are hoping for a build-up in the momentum soon. 63mts chart link BankNifty Today Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️ So both BN and N50 have the same stance of “bearish” now. Usually, when the directional bias is the same for both these indices, we expect the markets to cover some ground quickly. 4mts chart link Except for the opening candle, BN had a pretty boring day otherwise. BN was keeping the losses under control on Nifty. And the banks ICICIBANK, AXISBANK & KOTAKBANK were trending in the opposite direction of HDFCBANK. Yesterday it was the real opposite - HDFC was staying cool while the others were dropping. The expiry was meaningful today with frequent surges of volatility swinging the strike premiums. Even though BN managed to tread above water for some time, there were no visible signs of a bullish recovery. 16mts chart link We are quite safely away from the channel now. To renter it, BN will have to rise to 48600+ tomorrow. If it doesn't, then it's in the bear’s control. We continue to look for shorting opportunities with the first target as 47006.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
02 Jan ’24 — BankNifty below the channel, Bears taking control?BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish All checkboxes ticked for a bearish trend reversal. Firstly, we got confirmation when we breached the ascending channel bottom line. Secondly, there was no attempt to retrace once we started falling. The low of the day was hit towards the end of session. 4mts chart link - click here BankNifty has been the torchbearer for the trend reversals. Of late we were worried that the baton may be passed on to NiftyIT. The leader earlier and now is still BankNifty - today’s move was quite indicative of that. If it goes as per the script, we should be seeing further followthrough by Nifty & FinNifty tomorrow. 63mts chart link - click here The last time we tried to breach the channel bottom line was on 21st Dec. It ended up as a trap for the bears. This time around, we have 6 candles created below the bottom line, and 5 of them in RED. Hope is not a keyword, but the bears have to cling to something to create momentum. We have anyway revised the stance to bearish with the first target being 47462 followed by 46939.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
01 Jan ’24 — Banks not happy with a "Happy New Year 2024"We have compiled the last 3 months of work into an Amazon Kindle ebook with the title “60 Post-Mortems on Nifty & BankNifty Q3 FY23-24” - request you to take a look and provide suggestions. BankNifty Analysis - Stance changed to Neutral BankNifty was not able to break away from the lower channel line. Normally BN swings from the lower boundary to the upper boundary and follows a good correlation with the ascending channel. The last 30mts of fall ensured we broke the lower trend line. Ideally, the stance had to change to bearish - but we ran out of time for a full 63mts candle to form. 4mts chart link - click here The fall was 408pts ~ 0.84% deep. The red candle that took out the channel trend line had a drop of 154pts. Both BankNifty and FinNifty were looking quite weak today - not sure of the reasons though. When NiftyIT turned and went into strong green - the banks also started lending support to Nifty50. And when the fall came, it was all banks. 63mts chart link - click here The last candle closed below the channel, but the body is still touching the trend line. Just because of this reason - we decided to go with a neutral stance instead of bearish. The opening hours tomorrow will give us more clues anyway. FinNifty has expiry tomorrow and the stakes will be quite high for the banks to perform.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
29 Dec ‘23 - Banks took a break, still a Happy NEW YEAR close.BankNifty Analysis: Stance - Bullish Banks were appearing pretty lousy today, the fall did not halt at 10.11 today when Nifty50 found its support. BankNifty went further down and got its rejection only at the bottom level of the ascending channel. 4mts chart link - click here We have never seen an ascending channel that works with so much perfection. Yesterday BN finished on the top line, the gap-down opening tipped the scale in the bear’s favor but was run out at the bottom level. Interestingly only BankNifty took the beating, FinNifty ended the day much better (exact 0.22% loss closing as of N50). 63mts chart link - click here You can notice how beautifully BankNifty is respecting the channel. As long as we do not break the lower trend line, the bullish case is still intact. Thank you for staying with me this year. Your readership, comments, and suggestions are always appreciated. Wish you a happy and prosperous NEW YEAR 2024.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
28th Dec ’23 - 94% of Q3 gains came in DEC - BankNifty AmazingBankNifty Quarterly Analysis Surprisingly BankNifty rose only 9.56% ~ 4232pts compared to 11.6% by Nifty. There are 2 reasons for this. RBI’s I-CRR and CAR weight adjustments decisions rocked the boat and BN fell much more than N50 NiftyIT rose to the occasion and supported N50, in the same period NiftyIT gained almost 12% 1D chart link - click here BankNifty Monthly Analysis 94% of the Quarterly gains came in the December series alone. It was like a relay race and during the last lap, BN ran so fast that it made up for the losses in the earlier 2 months. 1D chart link - click here BankNifty Analysis The gap up really helped BankNifty to cross the top boundary of the ascending channel. After that happened, all BN had to do today was to resist falling below that inclined support level. In fact BN did that beautifully today and in the process hit a new ATH of 48636. 4mts chart link - click here The monthly options expiry is much better than the weekly ones. Primarily because the premiums are pretty high when Nifty and BankNifty have expiry on the same day. From a trader’s perspective, the earnings are directly proportional to the premiums the strike carries. During volatile expiries like today, the premium is too sugary to resist. 63mts chart link - click here BN trade above the ascending channel top line is not that clear from the chart as the line is seen as cutting it through. On a lower TF, you can clearly see the difference. For tomorrow also, we are going with the bullish stance.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
27th Dec ’23 -BankNifty gets a NEW ATH inside the ASC. channelBankNifty Analysis BankNifty is still caught between the upper & lower end of the ascending channel. Even then it managed to scale to a new all-time high of 48347. Half of the traders would have thought BN would have expiry today, the best way to remember would be to use post-it-notes saying BN expires with Nifty on the last week of the month. 4mts chart link - click here BN also had a slight gap-up, but the leg1 of the rally was quite strong. We gained 480pts ~ 1.01% till 12.07 before giving away 356pts ~ 0.74%. Leg2 it rallied 458pts ~ 0.96% but not enough to break out of the channel top line. 63mts chart link - click here Once BN got back into the channel - it is finding it difficult to break down or break away. Somehow the boundaries are getting respected. BN hitting a new top ensured that the stance changed from neutral to bullish. I am seriously thinking if the momentum is intact we should be getting that channel breakout tomorrow. Since it is a monthly expiry a bit of volatility cannot be ruled out as well.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
26th Dec ’23 - BankNifty stance changed to neutral, IV going upBankNifty Analysis Was quite surprised to see BankNifty following the ascending channel’s bottom trendline with a near correlation. Only for a brief period, we traded in RED, once BN pulled itself above water - it was able to hold its level quite strongly. 4mts chart link - click here KOTAKBANK, AXISBANK, and HDFCBANK were trading in green giving BN a much-needed green cushion. Even then there was no strong bullish momentum today - it was just that the bears did not have any control today. 63mts chart link - click here On the higher timeframe, BN is still inside the ascending channel. The bears are unable to exert any pressure post 20th December. Since BN is not ceding ground, I have to change my status from bearish to neutral for tomorrow. This week BankNifty and Nifty are expiring together on Thursday, which means we have no instruments expiring tomorrow 27th Dec. India VIX rose 7.08% today almost touching the 15 levels. Looks like VIX is creating an interim bottom. My EMA’s will show a golden crossover in 2 days if we continue the rising trend. After the news broke out about the drone attack on 2 vessels carrying Indian nationals - I seriously thought we would have a negative reaction today. Seems like the markets were not at all bothered. My next question is, will the market react to this news tomorrow? - “blast outside the Israel embassy in Delhi” VIX 1D chart - click here
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
22nd Dec ’23 - BankNifty's trades today were logical & realisticBankNifty Analysis The trades on BankNifty were more practical and appropriate to the situation we have at hand. 4mts chart link - click here We opened in line and then tested the top of the ascending channel from 10.03 to 12.03. There was rejection at those levels which took BN quickly to the bottom of the channel. We spent 13.43 to 15.11 at the lower end before breaking down. Even though the closing was below the channel, we ran out of time for conclusive evidence. Yesterday we went with a neutral stance believing BankNifty will be able to lead the fight for Nifty50 today. What really happened today was NiftyIT taking the pole position and BankNifty breaking down. 63mts chart link - click here The last 4 candles of today were in RED and we ended just below the channel. For Tuesday, I wish to go with a bearish stance. So at present, my directional view for both Nifty and BankNifty is bearish. Since we have a long weekend - anything could happen when we reopen on Tuesday. I have not taken any positions overnight and decided to play as per the situation after reopening.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
21st Dec ’23 - BankNifty leads from the front, stance is NEUTRALBankNifty Analysis I initially thought the wolf in the sheep’s costume was NiftyIT today spoiling the fun of the Bears. The real culprit was BankNifty - the way it defended its turf today was more than amazing. Even though we had a lower opening, HDFCBANK was staying strong at one end. You know pretty well that HDFCBK alone can drive up/down the index as its weight on the index is manipulatively sizeable. 4mts chart link - click here Just like a Tug-of-War, HDFCBK was at the rear end acting as the anchor. It bolted itself to the ground and ensured BN was not slipping. Somehow it worked. The first thing BN did was to retest the lower end of the ascending channel i.e. between 10.07 to 10.55. Once it broke out - it retested the same line from a support perspective i.e. b/w 13.55 to 14.11. The 2nd test was rejected which gave it massive momentum to break free (upside). The next stop was right at the top end of the channel i.e. b/w 14.47 to 15.19. You might have to see the encircled portion in the chart to know what I am referring to. 63mts chart link - click here Can you believe - All the candles today were GREEN. We started at the lower end of the channel and ended at the top boundary stopped only by the bell. Today’s price action almost nullified yesterday’s move and seeing the way BN fought back, I wish to change my stance to neutral for tomorrow. Will go bearish once 47400 gives away and will go bullish if the ATM is taken out. The options premium did not have any excesses today indicating that a big move may not be expected - will update you via TV minds if I see something interesting tomorrow.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
20th Dec ’23 - BankNifty falls 967pts - stance is now bearish 🐻BankNifty Today Analysis It all started with BankNifty today, the options flow was indicating immense bearishness. But Nifty50 options flow was showing strong bullishness. This contrasting directional bias barely works in our market. And 9 times out of 10, Nifty50 mends its way to go as per BankNifty’s directional bias. The reason is, BankNifty is still the leader of the pack. 4mts chart link - click here So first, the collusion again with NiftyIT to get Nifty50 to get to a new top and then a meltdown. BankNifty shaved off 967pts intraday after getting a gap up open. The candle at 13.27 ensured we were re-entering the ascending channel. Just like we discussed yesterday - the directional move came and we were not caught off guard. You might have guessed when we went short today, yes as soon as the ascending channel top line was breached. The ensuing momentum gave us confidence in the bearish bets. What was more surprising was the breach of the bottom line of the ascending channel - I honestly did not see that coming. 63mts chart link - click here Technically Banknifty has not moved that much today, we just dropped 0.89% compared to 1.41% of Nifty50. There were some outliers today, ADANIENT -5.35%, ADANIPORTS -5.76%, RELIANCE -1.21%, LT -2.3%. And the subsectors were all in RED. I seriously do not know if it is a serious correction phase as the runup so far has been like a dream. The chances of something happening like this were quite evident today. BankNifty options premiums were screaming bearishness - I thought it was because of the expiry. And Nifty50 was showing strong bullishness. I bet my money on Nifty as the options prices were more rational as it was not expiry related. But since the BankNifty’s premium’s were not dropping - It gave me the warning shot. Quite fortunately was able to catch the top and low of a few strikes correctly. Also was able to switch between BN and N50 strikes quite seamlessly to take advantage of the mispricings. Who in the world will believe 22700 CE of Nifty50 had a premium of Rs3 for 1 DTE i.e. a strike 1500pts above spot?
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
19th Dec ’23 - BankNifty and NiftyIT collusion to get N50 to ATHBankNifty Analysis Going neutral on BankNifty worked out pretty well today. But things were not looking in favor till we got the reversal at 10.03. Till then BN was following the falling price action from yesterday. I was kind of worried that we may even re-renter the ascending channel today. 4mts chart link - click here How and why we got the reversal - No clue. But BN climbed an impressive 369pts ~ 0.78pts to 48010 levels before giving up gains to close flat. The final close is 0.01% - how much more neutral can we be?? 4mts chart link - click here The ATH on Nifty50 looks like was planted. NiftyIT was falling pretty strongly and it was looking like a one-way trip down. NiftyIT recovered an impressive 423pts ~ 1.21% to help N50 take out the ATHs. So the Sync between NiftyIT, Reliance, and BankNifty was perfectly aligned to get the job done. And after that - things went back to normal. NiftyIt gave up 239pts and BN also dropped 227pts. 63mts chart link - click here The neutral zone is highlighted by 2 horizontal blue lines. Since tomorrow is BankNifty expiry - I am really looking forward to seeing a directional attempt. I wish to stay neutral till then. BankNifty options premiums were looking pretty good today and were unlike the usual Tuesdays we see. VIX near the 14 range is really helping the option sellers.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
1
18th Dec ’23 - BankNifty stance changed from bullish to neutral BankNifty Analysis We got some interesting moves today by BankNifty. During pre-open ICICI bank was looking very weak but other banks were looking okay. But once markets opened - BN fell to 47810 by 09.19. The 2 horizontal blue lines I have drawn are the weak support and resistance lines from the last 2 days of action. BN went above the 47873 and was trading above that for most of the time. 4mts chart link - click here We got one hit at 13.11 and the 2nd one by 14.43. After the 2nd hit, BN briefly fell below the support level and the final closing was at 47862. The LOD was broken 15.23 - so it is like we closed into weakness. The distance to my target of 47754 remained at just 52pts. And that is the main reason why I prefer to change my stance from long to neutral for tomorrow. 63 mts chart link - click here If BN builds back momentum by tomorrow afternoon (FinNifty’s expiry could help), then it has to take out the ATH - only then I would prefer to switch back to bullish mode. To go bearish, the first step BN has to do is take out the top boundary of the ascending channel pretty quickly.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
15th Dec ’23 - 0.5% variance b/w BankNifty & FinNifty - a first?BankNifty Analysis The patterns and price action on BankNifty were interesting today. For the first time, I noticed a dichotomy with Finnifty’s points. BankNifty and FinNifty had a variance of 0.5% index-to-index basis. This gap remained as such for the entire day. I do not remember the last time they had a sizeable gap. 81.57% weighted stocks in Banknifty have a combined weight of 77.09% in Finnifty - still, we got a variance. 4mts chart link - click here Today’s gap up was actually in the range set from yesterday. We did not break out until 14.27. So if we do not combine yesterday’s price action with today’s - the final painted picture will be different. The real deal today was NiftyIT which went up 4.56% and Reliance + Adani. SBI also played a part but BankNifty as a whole was not that crazy as Nifty. We finally ended the day with a gain of 0.86%. FinNifty ended with 0.32% gains. 63mts chart link - click here BN has also made an island formation because of the gap-up yesterday. The stance remains unchanged at bullish. The first support level will be 47754. Meanwhile would like to find out why NiftyIT surged so much, definitely it has to do with some news or insider information.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
14th Dec ’23 - BankNifty breaksout again and hits ATH Bull-RUNBankNifty Analysis If you read the postmortem report yesterday, you might have seen how the W pattern formed yesterday and BankNifty respecting the ascending trend line turned out. BankNifty had a different start today vs Nifty because we opened 0.95% gap-up and then rallied another 0.8% to hit the all time highs. 4mts chart - click here The 2nd rally was equally intense as the first. And once we hit the ATH - BN turned flat and had a sideways trend till close. Remember we discussed how gap-up and gap-downs are the major weapon used by the big-boys to scare the s**t out of the option sellers? US markets rarely does the gap-ups or gap-downs, I mean the index. Whereas the majority of the gains/loss in our markets are done via gaps. FED’s rate cuts promise in 2024 looks like more of a political play than an economic one. A rallying market and portfolios in green sounds pretty good for the incumbent leaders. Imagine trying to get re-elected when there is economic depression/recession? 63mts chart link - click here The stance on BankNifty has been revised to bullish. I have no targets in mind as we are at the ATH. The first support to look at will be 47588. Meanwhile, the charts look perfectly like in the textbook.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
13th Dec ’23 - BankNifty does a W pattern on the ascending trendBankNifty Today’s Analysis The opening candle in Banknifty had a swing range of 189pts ~ 0.4%. That candle looked dangerous and I really thought we would have a deep RED day today. Quite interestingly, BN made a W pattern right at the top band of the ascending channel (see the 63mts chart link also). 4mts chart link - click here Once BN got caught in that channel envelope, it was blindly following that path. The final close is at -0.01% - it cannot get more flat than this. The W pattern may change the dynamics for tomorrow - usually, it favors the bulls. So we need to wait and watch for the first hour or so tomorrow and then decide. From an expiry trading perspective, the OTM options really did not have any premium to start with. The opening moves gave some rush and then the reversal by 12.31 also gave some boost to the strikes. 63mts chart link - click here BankNifty has entered the ascending channel and from a medium-term perspective, it all looks bullish to me. For tomorrow, I wish to start with the neutral stance and then change course as the price action develops. Falling below 46565 is bearish to me.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
12th Dec ’23 BankNifty PostMortem - India's inflation at 5.5%BankNifty Analysis BankNifty had a better price action today than Nifty. In the sense that the down move was more stable and compelling. Since yesterday we said we would love to go neutral below 47000 - we are changing the status now. 4mts chart link - click here Even though the day’s low was only 47004, I would prefer to go with the status change because of 2 reasons. FinNifty had a dichotomy with BankNifty today - this may be expiry-related. After 11.00 AM, BankNifty had no attempt to go up, it was just too tired to even try. We got the inflation data today, India’s Retail Inflation 5.55 per cent in November 2023. source PIB. Vegetables 17.7% inflation, fruits - 10.95%, cereals - 10.27%, pulses - 20.23%. Quite surprised to see fuel and light deflated to -0.77% even without a fuel price drop. Crude oil has fallen 40% and yet we do not have a cut in petrol or diesel prices. Inflation hits the most for the poorest segment of the population where the marginal propensity to consume is higher. 63mts chart link - click here BankNifty is also above the ascending channel, only if it drops below the lower limit we can really get into a bearish zone. But looking at the price action today, I would like to play tomorrow’s expiry on a neutral tone.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
11th Dec ’23 - BankNifty stalled today after hitting new ATHBankNifty Analysis Banknifty disappointed a bit today. After a shaky start just like Nifty, we hit a new ATH by 10.23 - 47588. From there we cooled off a little bit and then closed flat. From the last post-mortem we hoped that it would be a day of out performance today and sadly the price action today did not live up to that expectation. 4mts chart link - click here BankNifty was staying positive most of the day, but FinNifty was dipping below water intermittently. Was it because the banks wanted some rest today after the chilling performance on Friday? I thought they got the weekend for ample rest. 63mts chart link - click here Conditions are still looking favorable for BankNifty’s breakout-dance. Maybe it could take a day or two to get some breath. Since we have FinNifty expiry tomorrow, the price action may not be purely natural. FinNifty option sellers would prefer to keep it range-bound. I wish to maintain the bullish stance on BankNifty tomorrow also and if we fall or close below 47000 level, I may have to take a pause and change stance to neutral.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram