20th Dec ’23 - BankNifty falls 967pts - stance is now bearish 🐻
BankNifty Today Analysis
It all started with BankNifty today, the options flow was indicating immense bearishness. But Nifty50 options flow was showing strong bullishness. This contrasting directional bias barely works in our market. And 9 times out of 10, Nifty50 mends its way to go as per BankNifty’s directional bias. The reason is, BankNifty is still the leader of the pack.
4mts chart link - click here
So first, the collusion again with NiftyIT to get Nifty50 to get to a new top and then a meltdown. BankNifty shaved off 967pts intraday after getting a gap up open. The candle at 13.27 ensured we were re-entering the ascending channel. Just like we discussed yesterday - the directional move came and we were not caught off guard.
You might have guessed when we went short today, yes as soon as the ascending channel top line was breached. The ensuing momentum gave us confidence in the bearish bets. What was more surprising was the breach of the bottom line of the ascending channel - I honestly did not see that coming.
63mts chart link - click here
Technically Banknifty has not moved that much today, we just dropped 0.89% compared to 1.41% of Nifty50. There were some outliers today, ADANIENT -5.35%, ADANIPORTS -5.76%, RELIANCE -1.21%, LT -2.3%.
And the subsectors were all in RED. I seriously do not know if it is a serious correction phase as the runup so far has been like a dream. The chances of something happening like this were quite evident today. BankNifty options premiums were screaming bearishness - I thought it was because of the expiry. And Nifty50 was showing strong bullishness. I bet my money on Nifty as the options prices were more rational as it was not expiry related. But since the BankNifty’s premium’s were not dropping - It gave me the warning shot. Quite fortunately was able to catch the top and low of a few strikes correctly. Also was able to switch between BN and N50 strikes quite seamlessly to take advantage of the mispricings. Who in the world will believe 22700 CE of Nifty50 had a premium of Rs3 for 1 DTE i.e. a strike 1500pts above spot?
It all started with BankNifty today, the options flow was indicating immense bearishness. But Nifty50 options flow was showing strong bullishness. This contrasting directional bias barely works in our market. And 9 times out of 10, Nifty50 mends its way to go as per BankNifty’s directional bias. The reason is, BankNifty is still the leader of the pack.
4mts chart link - click here
So first, the collusion again with NiftyIT to get Nifty50 to get to a new top and then a meltdown. BankNifty shaved off 967pts intraday after getting a gap up open. The candle at 13.27 ensured we were re-entering the ascending channel. Just like we discussed yesterday - the directional move came and we were not caught off guard.
You might have guessed when we went short today, yes as soon as the ascending channel top line was breached. The ensuing momentum gave us confidence in the bearish bets. What was more surprising was the breach of the bottom line of the ascending channel - I honestly did not see that coming.
63mts chart link - click here
Technically Banknifty has not moved that much today, we just dropped 0.89% compared to 1.41% of Nifty50. There were some outliers today, ADANIENT -5.35%, ADANIPORTS -5.76%, RELIANCE -1.21%, LT -2.3%.
And the subsectors were all in RED. I seriously do not know if it is a serious correction phase as the runup so far has been like a dream. The chances of something happening like this were quite evident today. BankNifty options premiums were screaming bearishness - I thought it was because of the expiry. And Nifty50 was showing strong bullishness. I bet my money on Nifty as the options prices were more rational as it was not expiry related. But since the BankNifty’s premium’s were not dropping - It gave me the warning shot. Quite fortunately was able to catch the top and low of a few strikes correctly. Also was able to switch between BN and N50 strikes quite seamlessly to take advantage of the mispricings. Who in the world will believe 22700 CE of Nifty50 had a premium of Rs3 for 1 DTE i.e. a strike 1500pts above spot?
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