Bankniftytrading
Banknifty daily analysis for 09/05/23Indian market followed the global markets and has given a nice upside move after a 1000 points loss, Banknifty has given a 600 points recovery forming an inside candle on the daily time frame.
Though, the market looks bullish, still banknifty is trading in a resistance zone and the previous fake out if strong will also act as a resistance.
Markets opened gap up and moved in the direction gaining around 500 points in first trading hour. The market took resistance and consolidated in narrow range of 100 points in the second half.
On hourly time frame, the market has crossed the 20 ema in a "v" shape form.
Either side moment can be there once a break out/down is there.
Support :- 43200-20, 43000
Resistance :- 43400, 43580
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the markets.
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 04 May 2023 - expiryWeekly Analysis
NSE:BANKNIFTY has gone up by 1.58% ~ 678pts from last Thursday to today. It has taken out 2 crucial resistance points in the process and nearing the ATH now.
Really impressive performance - the banks in India are standing out with their outperformance. Global financial institutions are melting down and many US banks are trading less than 50 to 60% below their ATHs
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Today's Analysis
Banknifty opened inline today and had a parabolic upside move, something that we usually see during range breakouts. At present banknifty is not in a range, so the price action could even be due to short covering.
Of the 0.86% gained today, 0.71% aggressive move came between 14.15 to 15.10 - once the HDFC declared its results. Since today was an expiry day, the last 1 hr move would have shocked many.
43500 CE option chart would have amazed many by a 530% upmove between 14.15 to close. When the VIX is low, volatility is at its lowest point - the option buyer gets a rag-to-riches kind of story like this every week.
The same spike was available on 18200 CE Nifty50. I was not really interested in fishing for these opportunities even though the risk:reward looked interesting. Mainly because I prefer to sell the options first rather than buy.
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15mts TF is showing today's move quite prominently. Once it took out the swing high of 02 May there was no stopping. Most of the option traders would be frustrated as the moves are coming only in the last 1 hr - this would spoil their trading plans.
Also during low volatility & low option premium periods - positional trading gives far more returns than intraday.
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1hr TF shows the new higher-high that got formed. In yesterday's report we discussed the possibility of the same happening. What is more surprising is how it happened today even after FED raised interest rates to 5.25% & SP:SPX tanked 0.7% overnight.
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NSE:NIFTY has also created a higher-high and closed above 17976 conclusively. The next resistance is at 18419
#BANKNIFTY - 04/05/23 MARKET VIEWIn the past two days, Banknifty has demonstrated a notable weakness in its performance, signaling a potential downturn in the coming days. Today's key reversal is expected to take place within the range of 43450-43550, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment.
Given this forecast, traders may want to consider taking a short position on Banknifty Futures or buying month-end Banknifty 44000PE at the aforementioned levels. However, to mitigate risks, traders must set a strict stoploss at 43600, ensuring that any potential losses are contained.
With a target range of 43200, 42900, and 42500, traders can leverage this opportunity to potentially reap significant profits, while also accounting for market volatility and uncertainty. By keeping a watchful eye on market trends and maintaining a calculated approach, traders can maximize their chances of success in this dynamic and competitive industry.
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 03 MAY 2023 - FOMCJust look at the 5mts chart of NSE:BANKNIFTY today - what do you see? I see the strength of the bulls. Even though the opening was gap-down and below the support line 43253, banknifty managed to scale back by 10.45.
The first attempt was rejected - rightly so because NSE:NIFTY was looking weak and the market participants would have anticipated more selling pressure.
Surprisingly banknifty did not have any selling momentum, by 14.30 the 43253 resistance was conclusively breached. Yeah, we did not close in green but just 39pts lower than yesterday's close.
Having such a dichotomy with Nifty50 is not good for NSE:BANKNIFTY . We cannot have a situation where banknifty is crossing the all time highs whereas Nifty50 is 8 to 10% lower.
One factor was the under performance by NiftyIT which is mirroring the US tech index. If we continue this outperformance by the banks vs IT - then the weightage of financial stocks will increase further diverging these 2 indices.
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On a generic note, I am quite surprised how the bank stocks in India are staying afloat when the US banks are under severe pressure.
SP:SPF is down 22% from the ATH whereas Banknifty is nearing the ATH in India.
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Nifty50 did not have any negative price action today, it just stayed down after opening gap-down. We can interpret it as Nifty50 lacking buying strength.
Today's FOMC meeting and FED interest rate decision is definitely going to move the markets globally. If FED raises rates - the banks in US will be under severe pressure. If FED maintains status quo - people will doubt its credibility in fighting inflation.
However this was not visible on Nifty50 today, I seriously thought we will close in deep red today mirroring the SP:SPX from yesterday.
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15mts TF, remember the rounded top formation we were talking about yesterday. Forget that, today's price action is not showing an interim top formation - the momentum is still too strong on the bull side.
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1hr TF shows the price action much more clearly, instead of a top formation what got formed is a start of a new leg. A higher-low is visible and if we continue to take out 43500 in the next 2 sessions we will have its higher-high too.
Technicals will work only if the fundamentals remain the same. It is quite unlikely that the fundamentals will remain the same for tomorrow as the FOMC meeting will have multi polar repercussions.
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 02 MAY 2023Signs of tiredness visible in the price action today. To start with, never expected that our indices will close in green today, even though the momentum is slowing, it is pushing up the bulls inch by inch.
Nifty50 was having more positive price action vs banknifty today - that may be because there are 2 more resistance zones to go for Nifty50 to reclaim the ATH whereas I do not have another resistance level for banknifty.
Also the NiftyIT was providing some additional support today. If NSE:NIFTY has to go up further, the additional points has to come outside of the financial sector.
NSE:BANKNIFTY opened gap-up, but the price action formed is continuous as the first candle retested last closing level. From there we had a narrow band sideways market.
For 5h 50mts today we had a narrow traded range of 43362 to 43476. The upside was capped as the buying momentum was missing. The downside was protected as the bulls were quite strong. So literally we did not have any place to go today.
Only in the last 1 hr we had some pattern forming indicating a profit-booking or an interim top like formation. Just a minor 180pts fall from HOD. Why I say there could a bit more selling to come is mainly because the volume of credit spreads that were getting created on the call side.
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Nifty50 also had a flattish pattern and unlike the banknifty the last 1 hr selling was not visible. It was a perfect day to get into a straddle today as the opening and closing prices are near same.
Nifty50 traded in the range 18136 to 18175 today with no pressure to pick a direction.
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15mts on banknifty is still bullish pattern. And its looks like a rounded top is getting formed. We would need further trades to happen below 43253 to have a change in bias.
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1hr is still bullish and we would need a close below 42576 to have a change in bias. I do not have a resistance zone above the current levels. However it is quite unlikely that just banknifty moves up without Nifty50 crossing the 2 more resistance lines.
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NSE:CNXFINANCE expiry special.
The open was gapup same like bank nifty and the traded range was again pretty narrow. However the selling pressure in 3 candles via 14.45, 15.00 and 15.15 was quite strong.
These 3 came at a time when the options premiums were all near zero, so assuming these were un-windings of the positional trades taken for expiry.
I am starting to spend more time on finnifty for Tuesdays as its much easier to trade than just banknifty. Atleast the certainty that the options will go to zero is still there. This is more relevant now as the banknifty options premiums are at their lowest levels. Unless the volatility rises the premiums of banknifty will remain subdued.
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 28 APR 2023I almost believed in everything that happened today, but not after 15.00. The spike seen on the 15.00 5mts candle reminded me of some cryptos that trade out there.
Even NSE:NIFTY had that unusual surge. I was monitoring all 8 nifty50 stocks - and could not believe a bit of it. It may been due to the month end rebalancing but it took me a while to get my grip on things.
The opening candle was red - just that. There was 1 attempt to break below 26th closing prices - but we recovered pretty quickly from that. For a change the option prices had some zing today making me believe that we are going to have a down day.
For 5hr 35mts there was no clear indication of the direction, but the momentum was helping NSE:BANKNIFTY drift higher. And then the 15.00 candle happened. I was checking my twitter feed to see if Russia called off the war or not.
What really changed was the way option prices behaved - most of them would have caught off-guard. The premiums jumped 50% to 95% in this quick 5 to 10mts.
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Nifty50 on the other hand was already having a positive momentum right from the start today. The last 30mts move helped it cross the 17976 resistance with ease. I still dont think its a short covering bounce - it should be rebalancing by the institutions.
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15mts of banknifty is showing a flattish slope comparing nifty50, but do keep in mind it was banknifty that helped nifty crawl out from the fall it had due to NiftyIT from 17th April.
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1hr has taken out the 43012 resistance today which is another win for the bulls. The next resistance of 43253 was kissed but ran out of time. I know how exactly the bears are feeling like, because I am one of them.
Monday will be a holiday, still no one wanted to take the money of the table. Usually such high euphoria wont last - till then its better that bears like me hibernate.
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 26 APR 2023I am sure most of the traders would be surprised with the kind of bullish price action we saw after 10am.
Since SP:SPX closed -1.58%, NDQ -1.89% yesterday - most of them including me expected NSE:NIFTY and NSE:BANKNIFTY to close in deep red today.
The gap down opening at 42559 was perfectly at the support level and from there we wont only 163pts down to reverse the direction & sentiment.
We had a rally of 1.01% ~ 426pts from the LOD. The price action at the SR level is worth mentioning as we spent 55mts there before breaking out.
There is no surprise with banknifty closing in green as bullish is the prevailing trend on the 1hr chart - but to have outperformed the US markets is real something.
Although I do not know what is the reason - it is worth researching on as the US market dips were due to the banking sentiment yesterday - First republic bank, UBS. This literally had no impact on our banks is something thats worth mentioning.
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Nifty50 had a similar chart with banknifty but it looks more positive. It has caught up to the recent swing high of 13th April indicating the weakness in IT may have got overshadowed by other performers.
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15mts chart is now looking bullish again after yesterday's subdued performance. The next resistance is seen at 43012. The support of 42576 which held its ground today will give the bulls a lot of hope today.
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1hr is also looking strongly bullish. The independent islands formed by the gap-ups shows the strong momentum too.
Although hard to believe - banks in India are proving to be very strong & resilient to global bad news. My question is are the foreign institutional investors also thinking so?
FASP levels for Bank Nifty 26/04/2023The FASP for BankNifty is listed for 26-04-2023. You can add this levels to your trade setup for better results. This should not be the only indicator but an additional tool to increase your winning possibilities.
What is Fibolysis Anchor SupRes Points(FASP)?
It is a unique level arrived by using Fibonacci Retracement , Fibonacci Extension , Standard Pivot levels under various Timeframes. It is an extensively analyzed level to draw the support and resistance levels for the next day. You can use these levels along with your trade setup to increase your winning odds.
Validity of the levels: 1 Day
How to use these levels?
The three levels on both sides are usually easily achievable. The Targets above are bit difficult to achieve in a single trading session. I use this fact to write intraday positions and to buy options.
Color Coding: Green is regular support and buying area, Red is strong exit area
Disclaimer: This is shared in the interest of educational purpose and for knowledge enhancement. Kindly refer it in the same light. I am not responsible for any profits or loss incurred based on this information.
PostMortem on BankNifty & Analysis of 25 APR 2023 + Finnifty EXPFor traders who are playing NSE:BANKNIFTY expiries on Thursdays can play the same trades on FinNifty on Tuesdays. The margin requirements are lower and now since the option premiums are staying low - the ROI in finnifty is better than banknifty.
Today was a flat day, open was at 42731 and then it was struggling to keep the momentum up. We had a gradual rise upto 42865 by 11.20 and then we started falling.
The fall itself was not convincing, only a 196pts dip & then it got bought into. This time we did not take the swing high but maxed out at 42827 @ 14.40.
The second fall was showing a bit more strength but we ran out of time, we had a dip of 220pts from 14.40 to 15.20
Even after all this banknifty still closed in green, up 42pts. The expiry on Fininfty would have played its part which we will discuss shortly.
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15 mts TF also showing a bit of tiredness after a good session yesterday. Will banknifty protect the 42576 support is what we need to look at. In spite of all the bullishness yesterday I seriously thought we might have a retest of 42576 today.
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1hr TF has made a rounded top as of now. Its not confirmation of a top as-it-is. We would need further price action to confirm that. The signs of momentum tiredness was visible in last 4 candles of today.
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Coming to the NSE:CNXFINANCE expiry, 18971 SR zone was active today. There were 3 tests on the 15mts TF today. I was ready with the 18900 PUT option but the support break came in very late ~ 15.15 today.
At 12.30 the same put option was active and might have continued to be in the money if not for the quick rejection candle at 12.45 wherein it recovered 0.24%. This SR zone was impacting the movements on the banknifty as well.
For the expiry traders it was a perfect day as the closing was flat and they would have got the max bang for the straddles.
BANKNIFTY : Levels for 25th AprilBANKNIFTY opened gapup & took support of zone we marked on chart. after giving good up move its stop at daily resistance mark on chart. Dot to dot point
No next it should take 15 min swing support mentioned on chart for further up move. Lets watch candle stick patter & follow price actions.
I have given my personal view on this video for Nifty & Bank Nifty.
Like, Share, Comment for regular updates.
Disclaimer
I am not sebi registered analyst
My studies are Educational purpose only
Please consult with your Financial advisor before trading or investing
I may be 100% wrong as its my personal view only.
Nifty & Bank Nifty : Dot to dot levels Hello & Welcome,
this is nifty & Bank nifty analysis video based on yesterday's video of Nifty & BankNifty. Watch levels we study yesterday & check price action today.
I have given my personal view on this video for Nifty & Bank Nifty.
Like, Share, Comment for regular updates.
Disclaimer
I am not sebi registered analyst
My studies are Educational purpose only
Please consult with your Financial advisor before trading or investing
I may be 100% wrong as its my pers
BANKNIFTY : View for Monday Bank Nifty Levels are shared for Monday
Details analysis already shared in You Tube
Like, Share, Comment for regular updates.
Disclaimer
I am not sebi registered analyst
My studies are Educational purpose only
Please consult with your Financial advisor before trading or investing
I may be 100% wrong as its my pers