Banknifty weekly expiry prediction 29/03/23.Banknifty has been trading in a range for last few trading session and has formed a dragon fly doji. The market has been forming a base for a trend reversal and can give nice bullish move tomorrow on monthly expiry.
An inside candle has been formed. Bullish trades can be initiated once it starts trading above the previous day high.
RSI is showing a bullish divergence, and the market in the closing hour has given a nice bullish move.
On the hourly charts, the market has closed above the 20 ema. It has been trading near 50% fibonnaci level and has closed above it, move and retest has been done, the market has also consolidated and there will be a big break out.
Support :- 39400, 39300
Resistance :- 39600, 39765, 39960
Index has been taking rejection from 200 ema, 15 minutes time frame, and has closed near the level. If the market starts trading above the EMA, bullish trades can be initiated.
Wait for the price action near the price levels before entering the market.
Bankniftytrading
[INTRADAY] #BANKNIFTY PE & CE Levels(28/03/2023)Today will be gap up opening in BANKNIFTY . After opening if banknifty sustain above 39550 level then possible upside rally of 400-500 points upto 39950 Level. And this rally can extend for another 400 points if it gives breakout of 40050 level. Any Major downside only expected in case banknifty starts trading below 39450 level.
FASP levels for Bank Nifty 28/02/2023The FASP for BankNifty is listed for 28-03-2023. You can add this levels to your trade setup for better results. This should not be the only indicator but an additional tool to increase your winning possibilities.
What is Fibolysis Anchor SupRes Points(FASP)?
It is a unique level arrived by using Fibonacci Retracement , Fibonacci Extension , Standard Pivot levels under various Timeframes. It is an extensively analyzed level to draw the support and resistance levels for the next day. You can use these levels along with your trade setup to increase your winning odds.
Validity of the levels: 1 Day
How to use these levels?
The three levels on both sides are usually easily achievable. The Targets above are bit difficult to achieve in a single trading session. I use this fact to write intraday positions and to buy options.
Color Coding: Green is regular support and buying area, Red is strong exit area
Disclaimer: This is shared in the interest of educational purpose and for knowledge enhancement. Kindly refer it in the same light. I am not responsible for any profits or loss incurred based on this information.
#BANKNIFTY - 27/03/23 MARKET VIEWBased on the current market analysis, it appears that the Banknifty index is poised to make a bullish move towards the upside direction on the 27th of March, 2023. It is important to note that there are two key support ranges to consider, with one being between 39000-39100 and the other being between 39300-39400. In light of this, a favorable trading strategy would involve taking a positional trade with a decent target of 39600, and a small stop loss set at 38900. It is recommended to closely monitor the given levels and look for a suitable opportunity to make a calculated trade.
[INTRADAY] #BANKNIFTY PE & CE Levels(27/03/2023)Today will be gap up opening in BANKNIFTY . After opening if banknifty sustain above 39550 level then possible upside rally of 400-500 points upto 39950 Level. And this rally can extend for another 400 points if it gives breakout of 40050 level. Any Major downside only expected in case banknifty starts trading below 39450 level.
FASP levels for Bank Nifty 26/02/2023The FASP for BankNifty is listed for 26-03-2023. You can add this levels to your trade setup for better results. This should not be the only indicator but an additional tool to increase your winning possibilities.
What is Fibolysis Anchor SupRes Points(FASP)?
It is a unique level arrived by using Fibonacci Retracement , Fibonacci Extension , Standard Pivot levels under various Timeframes. It is an extensively analyzed level to draw the support and resistance levels for the next day. You can use these levels along with your trade setup to increase your winning odds.
Validity of the levels: 1 Day
How to use these levels?
The three levels on both sides are usually easily achievable. The Targets above are bit difficult to achieve in a single trading session. I use this fact to write intraday positions and to buy options.
Color Coding: Green is regular support and buying area, Red is strong exit area
Disclaimer: This is shared in the interest of educational purpose and for knowledge enhancement. Kindly refer it in the same light. I am not responsible for any profits or loss incurred based on this information.
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 24 Mar 2023Traders expected a bullish day today. They cannot be blamed because on 22nd we had a solid trade day above the crucial support level of 39742.
But something was certain, once we broke that level yesterday we should really look out for bearish opportunities not the other way around. The level of 39742 became so important because of the time spent in the range ~ 45 days.
Thats why at 09.29 i posted this message on banknifty minds "$BANKNIFTY as long as 39742 is not broken there is no point in going bullish it could even trap us!"
Open was inline at 39555 and then we spent 2hrs without any specific directional moves.
Then there was a steady rise to the resistance level of 39742, must say a rise of 256pts and then an expected rejection.
From 12.25 to the close there was a steady fall of 465pts ~ 1.17%, it did not come as a single leg. There was a pull back from 13.00 to 13.15 wherein we retested the resistance again.
Today's fall may not be entirely technical - there were lot of fundamental news flow related to taxation & passing of finance bill that created some uncertainties.
Govt. plan to raise the STT, remove the indexation benefit for debt mutual funds was not taken positively by the market. There is something unusual about the finance bill passed today - it comes 52 days after the Union budget was presented.
During the budget there was no mention of revision of taxation, removal of long term capital gain etc. They might have felt that releasing those news then would have crashed the markets. But the sad thing is that they took us for a ride now.
The reaction we had from the stock market today was nothing compared to the impact of revision of tax structures. If Govt. doesnt allow grandfathering ie people who had already got into debt funds before 31 Mar 2023 to enjoy the indexation benefit - then we are in deep trouble.
Coming back to bank nifty, we closed at the low point in the day and like yesterday the selling intensified in the closing hours thereby restricting the real damage.
We can look forward to have an eventful next week !
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15mts is not showing an immediate direction, it will show bearish bias only if the 38690 support is taken out. Just because 39742 is broken the sentiment cannot be bearish because banknifty has spent time below 39742 without causing a damage earlier.
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1hr is still continuing to look bearish, but the momentum will intensify only if the next support level is breached. If things go as per plan we may be able to see it before March series end.
BankNIFTY DOwntrend Movement with Risk:reward 3.1 #BankNIFTY DOwntrend Movement with Risk:reward 3.1
Bank Nifty analysis
Time frame 4 hours
what is the analysis?
Why downtrend?
will analyze the conditions for a down trend
First, we will check the moving average condition, then Volume and RSI.
Let us summarise the downtrend movement of Banknifty:
Analysis is downtrend movement /sell a call with risk to reward ratio of 3.3 with SL 40431 and a target we can expect upto 36600
Hope our analysis is adding value to your TRADING JOURNEY N I WISH U a BRIGHT FUTURE IN TRADING. HAPPY TRADING.
NOTE: Published Ideas are for ‘’EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE ONLY’’ trade at your own risk.
NOTE: RESPECT The risk. SL should not be more than 2% of the capital.
[INTRADAY] #BANKNIFTY PE & CE Levels(24/03/2023)Today will be flat opening in BANKNIFTY . After opening if banknifty sustain above 39550 level then possible upside rally of 400-500 points upto 39950 Level. And this rally can extend for another 400 points if it gives breakout of 40050 level. Any Major downside only expected in case banknifty starts trading below 39450 level.
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 23 Mar 2023 Expiry
Interesting price action today, not only did bank nifty end 0.96% down - it broke the crucial support of 39742 today.
You might be already aware that i was expecting a bearish week, the 39500/39400 4:5 debit spread of mine was sitting at a loss right from monday. Today's gap down opening at 39836 gave me some hope that we will have a miraculous down day.
The handout from US markets yesterday was completely bearish S&P500 lost 1.03% in the last 15mts of trade. So it is just commonsense that we expect our markets also to trade negatively.
But what happened was totally unplanned for, banknifty took support at 39742 by 09.25 and then started rallying up. We had a 1.18% ~ 468pts rally from the LOD to HOD by 12.45.
And usually when markets move upwards, the options premium drops equally fast. Volatility cools & more people join the party as bullish rallies are easier to participate.
By 12.46 i took a debit spread of 39800/39700, i am not here to brag how much money i made. Infact i am going to show you how much i lost. So now my hedge has 1 debit spread and 1 debit ratio spread - but i was not finding any OTM puts unusually priced. All of them were already near the fair value.
The cyan colored solid line is where my debit spread will go in the money. At 12.46 bank nifty was at 40200, i was expecting a rejection from the resistance level of 40131. Honestly i never thought my debit spread will even go in the money.
Normally i take debit spreads to hedge for the naked options that are sold. But today i took the spread first and then thought will take the short position once the market starts dropping.
The resistance rejection came at 13.40 and then there was a strong down move. But it was already late, we hit the blue line by 14.30 and with just an hour to go for close. So when i saw the 2nd candle at 14.35 i thought that bank nifty may not fall further, it was already at 39799 and then the support is just 50 pts below.
My intuition told me bank nifty will bounce back from the support level and if that happens my debit spread will go worthless (to zero). So i squared off the position right away making a return of 7.6 times the premium paid.
Guess what happened next, between 14.40 to 15.10 bank nifty fell another 273pts ~ 0.69%.
Once it broke the support line, the single 5mts candle itself swung 147pts. And guess what my position would have made an additional 25.7 times the premium paid.
7.6 & 25.7 times means 630% & 3074% respectively. Now these are the one-off lottery deals that come up. The mistake i made was to think the time factor will get in the way of delta increase.
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So now on the 15mts we have broken the support level, the red candle right after the break is showing some signs. Also notice 8 consecutive red candles.
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Bank nifty lost 1% in just the 1hr candle at 14.15 - this is the candle that broke through the support level. Further price moves are going to get exciting & i would like to see the next support level of 38690 to be taken out before the bearish momentum continues.
see all 7 charts in today's report at viswaram. com
[INTRADAY] #BANKNIFTY PE & CE Levels(23/03/2023)Today will be flat opening in BANKNIFTY. After opening if banknifty sustain above 40050 level then possible upside rally of 400-500 points upto 40450 Level. And this rally can extend for another 400 points if it gives breakout of 40550 level. Any Major downside only expected in case banknifty starts trading below 39950 level.
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 22 Mar 2023Today happened to be a boring day mostly because NSE:BANKNIFTY stuck to a specific narrow range all day. Usually we have one or two swings which will spike up the options premium,
Yesterday i did mention the possibility that we could expect a fall today if the 2nd half of yesterday's session was resultant of a build-up as part of Finnifty expiry. Since the fall did not happen - i will go with the assumption that the resistance break of 39742 yesterday was not a fake move.
Today's open was gap up at 40036, the HOD was in the opening 5mts itself. After that we came down a little and then stuck to the range 39874–40023 ~ just a 149pt narrow range.
From an options premium perspective, we started the day with very low premiums. Most of the OTM hit the HOD in the opening minutes itself and then the time decay took over as the volatility was dead.
We are awaiting the US Fed interest rate decision today at 23.30 IST - if the rate hike is more than 25bps it should be bearish. Only then we can think of a possibility of NSE:BANKNIFTY breaking the support level of 39742.
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15mts TF showing a temporary consolidation type of pattern between 39742 & 40134. This should ideally break in tomorrow's trade mostly because its weekly expiry.
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1hr TF shows a wider time could be spent between the 39742 to 41629 range before a rally or breakdown. Today's trade being conducted above the crucial support area should give some relief to the bulls.
#BANKNIFTY - POSITIONAL VIEWBased on recent market analysis, it has been determined that BANKNIFTY is expected to display a bearish momentum in the upcoming days. In light of this forecast, short-term traders are advised to consider either shorting or purchasing put options for the next month expiry.
It is recommended to identify the key sell range between 39830-39980, with a targeted goal of achieving 39650, 39400, and 38950. However, it is imperative to note that the suggested strategy should be implemented with a stop-loss in place at 40600 to minimize potential losses.
This approach will enable traders to make informed decisions while navigating the market's dynamic conditions and pursue their investment objectives with greater confidence.
$BANKNIFTY likely to touch 40800-41000$BANKNIFTY has given a positive close today above the long time resistance zone.
Apart from this a Bullish RSI Divergence is seen on the charts on Daily TF.
Along with the above, buyers fight back today was more prominent in Bank Nifty than in Nifty with BN giving positive upside signs clearly as soon as it broke from the first 1 hour zone. Comparatively, $NIFTY was sluggish and lagging.
The above points makes me confident that $BANKNIFTY would very soon touch the 40800 level.
Just a caveat, like any upmove, we should expect retests. My expectation is if $BANKNIFTY opens gap up tomorrow, which i think is highly likely, it would be around 40200 level. If it gaps up, then we can see a retest of this resistance level, which now is the support.
If this level/zone is respected, then a its likelihood of hitting 40800 is strengthened.
#BANKNIFTY - 22/03/23 MARKET VIEWIf the BANKNIFTY spot index experiences a 15-minute candle closure below the critical level of 39900, it may indicate the potential for a bearish market sentiment. In such a scenario, traders may consider a target range of 39700, 39500, and 39100 with a recommended stop loss at 40100.
It is important to note that this information is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. As always, investors should conduct their own research and consult with a licensed financial professional before making any investment decisions.