PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 10 APR 2023
I am making some changes in the chart layout from today's report. It will be in white background going forward. This is after the feedback I got from the kindle publishing team that images with dark layout will look awkward when made into paperback.
note: I will still continue to use the dark-mode chart for my trading purpose, only for the reports I will be using the white-mode
BANKNIFTY
opened today at 41116, it might look as a gap-up open but when the price action is considered it looks perfectly in line.
The entire market was quite subdued today, the option premium at the lowest when we compare an average Monday. The good-friday holiday might have played its part, but I still think the premiums were restrictive for any option sellers to have made money today.
I waited till 10.45 to find any mis-priced option, the moment I saw the premiums were all dead - I called it a day. I was just waiting on the sidelines just waiting for something to happen.
From 10.10 to 11.35
BANKNIFTY
tested its first support at 40880 but did not break it. The rejection came at 11.40 when a short surge helped it gain 192pts.
The real move came from 12.45 to 14.15, in fact the 5mt candle at 14.15 had a bid dip. In spite of this the options premium hardly felt any threat. I am referring to OTM premiums which captures the threat more evidently.
Now we have the 40880 support broken decently as the close was below that level. The next support 40704 did not break today, below which the bears would have exerted some additional pressure.
---
15mts TF does not look bearish yet,
BANKNIFTY
might be taking a small break before the bullish continuation.
It could also mean a short term top if the further trades are held below the current levels. Ideally this should be the case wherein the bears get some control on the market & drive up the premiums.
---
1hr was in a perfect downward trend till the moves from 27 March 2023 to 06 April 2023 ruined it.
As it stands we have just entered back the top level of the descending channel. Further trades below this channel will give the bears lot of confidence to push down the bank-nifty prices & drive up the options premium.
The implied volatility which is staying so low is causing all the trouble for the option sellers.
note: I will still continue to use the dark-mode chart for my trading purpose, only for the reports I will be using the white-mode
BANKNIFTY
opened today at 41116, it might look as a gap-up open but when the price action is considered it looks perfectly in line. The entire market was quite subdued today, the option premium at the lowest when we compare an average Monday. The good-friday holiday might have played its part, but I still think the premiums were restrictive for any option sellers to have made money today.
I waited till 10.45 to find any mis-priced option, the moment I saw the premiums were all dead - I called it a day. I was just waiting on the sidelines just waiting for something to happen.
From 10.10 to 11.35
BANKNIFTY
tested its first support at 40880 but did not break it. The rejection came at 11.40 when a short surge helped it gain 192pts. The real move came from 12.45 to 14.15, in fact the 5mt candle at 14.15 had a bid dip. In spite of this the options premium hardly felt any threat. I am referring to OTM premiums which captures the threat more evidently.
Now we have the 40880 support broken decently as the close was below that level. The next support 40704 did not break today, below which the bears would have exerted some additional pressure.
---
15mts TF does not look bearish yet,
BANKNIFTY
might be taking a small break before the bullish continuation. It could also mean a short term top if the further trades are held below the current levels. Ideally this should be the case wherein the bears get some control on the market & drive up the premiums.
---
1hr was in a perfect downward trend till the moves from 27 March 2023 to 06 April 2023 ruined it.
As it stands we have just entered back the top level of the descending channel. Further trades below this channel will give the bears lot of confidence to push down the bank-nifty prices & drive up the options premium.
The implied volatility which is staying so low is causing all the trouble for the option sellers.
