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PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 06 Mar 2023Once again the perfect day for the straddlers, open & close almost at the same level ! But for every other trader, it was a tough day to plan. Gap up opening & hitting the resistance by 09.45. The 30mts of move would have changed everyone bias to the long side. That was 1% ~ 429pts upmove considering the gap up also. The surge in the ATM & near OTMs were so huge that traders were busy exiting their short position or adding on to fresh longs. Check the volume build up for 42000 CE, 42500 CE and 43000 CE in the opening 30mts - you will get a fair idea on what i am referring to. But here is where NSE:BANKNIFTY almost trapped most of them. 41629 resistance was quite hard to beat. After spending 40mts at this level we saw a drop to the 1st support of 41309. And the next 1hr 35mts was spent at this support level. Not breaking down showing strength & conviction of bulls. Not rising up showing bulls are taking some rest after the move on Friday. NSE:BANKNIFTY underperformed NSE:NIFTY and NiftyIT today after outperforming for so many days in succession.  --- 15mts chart is not showing bearishness yet, but today's move creating a rounding top may be an interim swing high for this week. Thats what i feel personally. Since we have a holi-day on 07 Mar, the reopening on 8th will have a huge gap up or gap down based on how US market trades today & tomorrow. If the gap up takes out the resistance then 15mts will show super bullishness. --- 1hr TF is still not bullish according to me, mainly because the resistance is still holding. 2 other times in the last month we did have a retest & rejection of this resistance level So for 40 days and 4 hours we are in a flattish market but which has really given a scare to the bulls. And trust me the bears have not been able to capitalize in this timeline (people like me) because every attempt to create a lower low has been nullified. Bank nifty's real scare is on the upside, because the downside seems like pretty protected. The low premiums on the PEs is definitely an indication that most of the participants are not even expecting a 500 pts fall in this expiry. However once it falls this 500pts the dynamics will change and the option pricing will look attractive to take some bets. Till its best that people like me wait & preserve capital. to view the 5 charts in today's discussion visit viswaram. com
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
Banknifty daily analysis for 07/03/23.Banknifty on the daily time frame has given a doji and closed only 99 points higher after a gap of 150 points. In the first hour of the market there was a nice bullish candle but the market couldn't sustain the levels and started to melt down closing around 41350 points. There is a bullish moving averages cross over, on the hourly time frame, which shows some bullish movement in the coming days. The index has been taking resistance around the round figure of 42k. Once the resistance is taken out, the market will be in a bullish move and can touch new highs. On 15 minutes time frame, the market has consolidated very nice in a parallel channel and closed near the 20 ema. Support :- 41250, 40900 Resistance :- 41650, 41750, 42000 Wait for the price action near the price levels before entering the markets.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by Mambotrade
Banknifty weekly analysis for 06/03/23.A tweezer bottom pattern is formed on the weekly charts of banknifty. The index has closed above the 20 ema and looks stronger than the other index. The market has given a nice weekly and daily closing around 41250 levels. The market has closed near 38.2% fibonacci levels. Banknifty has given a break out and a retest of the resistance zone and closed above both the moving averages, on hourly charts. Even the strong daily candle is indicating some positivity. The market has respected the recent low and reversed after trading around it. Support :- 40900, 40600 Resistance :- 41750, 41970-42000 Banknifty has given a strong closing and can continue to remain in green. Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the markets.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by Mambotrade
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 03 Mar 2023 Well the day did not go as planned for me, if you have read my yesterday's report you might be cursing me by now. I was pretty bearish, atleast that was what the 1hr chart told me. So when NSE:BANKNIFTY opened gap up at 40671 i thought the first resistance at 40698 will hold. After a while i thought 40868 resistance might hold - and here is where i got the calculations pretty wrong. I had taken a bearish position anticipating a reversal. But what happened was a near vertical upmove with little or no pullback till 11.40. A sharp upside move of 2.38% ~ 959pts by the 2hr 30mts. There was no major pullback or reversal. There was just a small pause at the 41311 resistance level. But we cannot confirm that it was the resistance that came into play, the traders would have taken the profits & exited few positions. Its a weekend and we cannot really say how the US markets could react after we close. NSE:SBIN up 5.14% NSE:INDUSINDBK up 2.21% NSE:HDFCBANK 1.95% NSE:KOTAKBANK & NSE:ICICIBANK up 1.7% - surely all the banks were on steroids today. Since i couldnt believe what was happening, i was caught like a deer in the headlamps. Almost couldnt take any trade to firefight my losing position. So this not only negates my yesterday's bearish bias but changes the structure of the rally. Lets examine the 15mts & 1hr chart to get more clarity. --- 15mts shows the breakaway gap & the sharp surge. Remember yesterday i said the move on wednesday appears fake & the one on thursday shows an interim top like formation. Negate that ! I am still not bullish yet on 15mts - i am confused. --- 1hr shows the 2 strong green candles that followed the 5 red candles yesterday. What a stark contrast. Well i am still keeping bearish hopes alive on the 1hr Tf. You might think i am crazy. But still. If 41600 gets taken out in the next session, you bet i will flip. Till then i will continue to look for shorting opportunities.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 02 MAR 2023 - ExpiryToday's expiry was totally different, something i havent seen for many weeks. Mainly the premiums were dead low coupled with directional move that came very late in the day. Traders who got into straddles & exited by the noon would have made handful today, but people like me who depend on volatility as entry criteria would have been disappointed. Today's opening candle was unbelievable, 165pts swing in the first 5 mts. And this 5mts killed the put option premium very quickly. Even though we gave up the gains & lost more than the opening candle in the next 10mts - the move failed to spike premiums to the usual extent. Usually CE premiums would have spiked in the opening 5mts, but even that didnt happen. This was like an expiry pre covid days when the trader plays with the ATMs & ITMs to get the reward. If you have read my yesterday's report - i was expecting the moves to the bearish side (see the 1hr TF statement). Yeah we went bearish in the afternoon and finally closed the day lower than yesterday. So we had a fake move yesterday that sucked out the premiums both on wednesday & thursday. Dont think i am complaining or being negative here. If the market has changed its behavior, we need to find smarter ways to trade. As we all know the same strategy or style will not work all the time ! From 09.40 to 10.40 we had a small rally that went upto the resistance level & then turned. And then from 10.45 to 14.00 we had a steady down flow of 0.84% loss ~ 340pts. This is the fall i was referring to - where it failed to light up the PE prices upto 38500 PE. Usually we see huge sudden spikes whenever market falls. At 12.15 i posted on Tradingview NSE:BANKNIFTY minds that we may expect a fall, even having a position to capitalize it did not work out :(  In fact i had a 40200/40100 PE debit spread - even at 14.00 that position was in loss. Imagine the participants were not even expecting another 150pts fall in the next 1.5hrs - for a market that has been bearish from Dec 2022. --- 15mts TF now shows the smooth top like formation that got created yesterday & today. The momentum for a big fall or the triggers to get that big news/event is still lacking. --- 1hr is still bearish, the last 5 consecutive candles are red - which is good for the bears. But the length of the candles which shows the intensity or momentum are not that big to create ruckus.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 01 MAR 2023Yesterday we discussed a possibility of finding a trend on wednesday, read yesterdays report as the related item Although i was not sure about the direction yesterday, it turned out on the bullish side. Deep down i really wanted to see NSE:BANKNIFTY break down & fall to the support levels of 39742 - mainly because the option premiums were very low due to the lack of volatility. Its better to refrain from option selling than sell at low premiums, thats because with a beast like NSE:BANKNIFTY  - its hard to run for cover when the rally is against your short position, be it CE or PE. Now thats alright, because there is no guarantee that a fisherman gets his fish everyday, still he packs his gear & goes fishing. When he gets 1, he enjoys & when he gets none, he isnt disheartened. Option selling is more like fishing, its because the option seller has to wait for the highest premium to sell (sell at top) to reduce any risk of counter rally. So if he commits first, and the premium goes up - he either adds more position or squares off at a loss eventhough he got the direction correct. Option buyer on the other hand need not worry of buying at the bottom. All that matters is if he can find another buyer at a higher price & exit. Direction is the only benefit option buyer has. Coming back to the post mortem analysis, NSE:BANKNIFTY opened gap up at 40473 made a red first candle and then started moving higher. The rally stopped when the resistance level of 40704 was hit. We had a 1% ~ 403pts upmove by 11.40 considering prices from prev. close. The main reason for the rally was the outperformance by NSE:SBIN +2.66% & NSE:AXISBANK +2.49%. NSE:INDUSINDBK also support strongly at +2.11%. Now Axis rallied due to the news event connecting the acquisition of Citi bank's assets, SBI - i really dont know. NSE:HDFCBANK & NSE:ICICIBANK did not move that much today, there was no bearish sentiment either. Otherwise the smart boys would have reduced NSE:HDFCBANK & NSE:ICICIBANK positions to keep the niftybank in the flattish territory.  Now this 1.07% ~ 429pts rally today by NSE:BANKNIFTY did not break the resistance conclusively. It did close right at that level though. The next move will be exciting as further upmove will negate bearish bias on all lower timeframes. --- 15mts TF is showing the brief upmove & a possible break from the current bearish leg. Once it goes above 41000 NSE:BANKNIFTY will no longer be bearish in the 15mts scale. --- 1hr TF - you might have noticed the W pattern marked in cyan color. What you might have failed to see is the beautiful bearish wave right from the 14th dec. So if bank nifty has to negate this bias it has to take out the resistance very quickly. Yes the current W pattern may give it momentum - but will it really hold only the next 2 sessions will tell. to view the 4 charts in today's discussion visit viswaram. com
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
Baknifty trying to make Cup and Handle PatternBaknifty trying to make Cup and Handle Pattern Today banknifty in a channel pattern and going towards high as the PCR is above 1 if you want to get profit instantly Its simply just impossible so find the proper range with premium decay calculation then trade. every red candle sign of profit today if you are a buyer after hitting the resistance levels its should be / may take a support of ( > then) 50% of cup pattern. have a nice trading day.. 💖💖 Don't Take "One More Trade"... story of a successful trader
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by dasarijit245
Banknifty Future Intraday & Positional viewBanknifty has been trading at such a range for quite some time. why? Banknifty is standing at support in monthly time frame. It is facing resistance in weekly time frame. so, you have to avoid to take a broader view or swing trade.Rather, you can take a selling of Monthly straddle. What is short straddle ? One short call and one short put make up a short straddle. Both options have the same underlying stock, the same strike price and the same expiration date. . If the underlying stock trades inside a constrained range between the break-even points, a short straddle is constructed for a net credit (or net receipt) and profits. The maximum profit is only as much as the total premiums less commissions. If the stock price increases, the potential loss is limitless; if it decreases, the potential loss is significant. Maximum Profit:- The maximum profit is only as much as the total premiums less commissions. If the short straddle is held until expiration, the stock price exactly closes at the strike price, and both options expire worthless, the most money can be made. Maximum Risk:- On the upside, because the stock price can continue to climb eternally, the potential loss is limitless. As a result of the stock price's probable decline to zero, there is a significant risk of loss. Consider the following scenario: Nifty is currently trading at 17589, making the 17600 strike ATM. The following are the option premiums: Trading for 17600 CE is at 77. Trading for 17600 PE is at 88. Hence, in order to execute the short straddle, we must sell both of these options and receive the net premium of 77 + 88 = 165. Please keep in mind that the options must have the same underlying, the same expiration date, and of course, the same strike. Let's calculate the P&L under various market expiry situations presuming that you have already completed this short straddle. Situation 1: The market closes at 17200 (we lose money on put option) In this case, the put option's loss is so significant that it consumes the premium that was paid. As a result of the fact that 17600 CE would expire worthless, we keep the premium obtained, meaning that 17600 PE will have an intrinsic value of 400. When the premium obtained, Rs. 88, is taken into account, we lose 400 - 88 = - 312. 312 - 77 = - 235 would be the overall deficit. As you can see, the loss in the put option equals the gain in the call option. The market expires at 17435 in scenario two (lower breakdown) In this instance, the strategy is in a neutral financial position. As 17600 CE would expire worthless, the premium is kept. Profit is Rs. 77 here. As we received Rs. 88 in premium on an intrinsic value of 165 for 17600 PE, our loss would be 165 - 88 = -77. The loss in the put option entirely cancels out the gain in the call option. Thus, at 17435, we are in the black. Situation 3: The market closes at 17600 (at the ATM strike, maximum profit) The best result for a short straddle is this one. The scenario is simple at 17600 since both the call and put options would expire worthless and the premiums from both the call and put options would be kept. The gain in this case would equal the net premium received, or Rs. 165. This indicates that in a short straddle, you profit the most when the markets remain static. Situation 4:The market expires at 17765 in scenario 4. (upper breakdown) This is comparable to the second scenario we looked at. At this time, the plan achieves parity at a point above the ATM strike. After accounting for the premium of Rs. 77 that was paid, 17600 CE would have an intrinsic worth of Rs. 165, meaning that we would lose Rs. 88. (165 – 77) 17600 PE would expire worthless, thus the premium, which is equal to Rs. 88, is kept. We are neither making money nor losing money because the profit from the 17600 PE is countered by the loss from the 17600 CE. This is undoubtedly the upper breakdown point. Situation 5: The market closes at 18000 (we lose money on call option) In this case, the market is obviously much larger than the 17600 ATM threshold. Both the loss and the call option premium would increase. 17600 PE will expire worthless, thus the premium, which is equal to Rs. 88, is kept. After accounting for the premium of Rs. 77 received, the 17600 CE will have an intrinsic worth of Rs. 400 at 18000, meaning that we will lose Rs. 323. ( 400 -77) Given that we paid Rs. 88 as the put option premium, our loss would be equal to 88 – 323 = –235. As you can see, the call option's loss is substantial enough to cancel out the total premiums paid. At the ATM, you can make the most money; as you travel away from the ATM mark, your profits decrease. As long as the market remains within the breakdown points, the technique is lucrative. Markets that stray furthest from the breakdown point face the greatest damage. The loss increases as the market deviates further from the breakdown point. Maximum loss: infinity There are two breakdown spots that are equally spaced from the ATM on either side. ATM plus net premium equals upper breakdown. ATM - Net premium equals a lower breakdown. The short straddle operates in the exact opposite manner to the long straddle, as you may have guessed by this point. When markets are anticipated to trade in a range and not make significant gains, short straddles perform best. Since that short straddles carry limitless losses on either side, many traders are afraid of them. But in my experience, if you know exactly how to use this, short straddles work incredibly well. I think you now clearly understand what short straddle is. According to me, it is better to sell 41000 call and 39000 put of monthly expiry.  Intraday:-  Bear could not come at all yesterday. Banknifty closed at day high which indicates bullishness.
NSE:BANKNIFTY1!
by biplab86