Bank Nifty - 41600 in March 2023 before Expiry is possibleBN has fallen only due to US Bank news which is getting closed by other banks showing interest in Buying the sick bank, Buy price is also being revised upward. In my view the biggest banks like Citi, HSBC etc are stable. why any one giving so much importance to start up failures !!!!! only to buy at dips. I am expecting very big rally in BN and N in next 7 trading days......view will change only if any other bad news happen and not in the name of possibilities etc fears
Bankniftytrading
Banknifty weekly analysis for 20/03/23.Banknifty on the weekly time frame has given a nice lower wick rejection and formed a doji. Though the market are in the bearish move but the weekly candle is showing a short term positive momentum in the index.
For last 2 trading session the market has sustain the opening levels and soaked in all the sell pressure it exerted in the last hour of session. 38.2% fibonnaci level is near and if it starts trading above it, 50% levels can be reached.
On the hourly time frame, the market has show a 'U' shape kind of a recovery and the last hour momentum is showing some positive sentiment.
SGX nifty is showing a negative closing of 117 points. Indian markets will follow the global market, watch for the global market in the morning.
Support :- 39000, 38550
Resistance :- 39780, 40080
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
Bank Nifty: Monday - 20/03/23Levels:
Support: 39600, 39450, 39250, 39000, 38600
Resistance: 39800, 40000, 40150, 40300, 40550
OI Data:
---------------------------------------------------------------------|
Bank Nifty => Price: 39598.1
ATM: 39600 , ITM: 39500, 39400, 39300 , OTM: 39700, 39800, 39900
---------------------------------------------------------------------|
Highest OI Call in Bank Nifty per OI data: 40000
Highest OI Put in Bank Nifty per IO data: 39000
Nearest Major Resistance in Bank Nifty per OI data: 39900
Nearest Major Support in Bank Nifty per IO data: 39400
---------------------------------------------------------------------|
Trade setup:
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Trade | Level | SL | T1 | T2
-----------------------------------------
BUY | > 39800 | 39600 | 40000 | 40100
-----------------------------------------
SELL | < 39450 | 39550 | 39300 | 39200
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
[INTRADAY] #BANKNIFTY PE & CE Levels(17/03/2023)Today will be a gap up opening in BANKNIFTY. Expected opening below 39450 Level. After opening possible reversal of 400-500 points from this level. And this can extend for another 400 points if it gives breakdown of 38950 level. Any Bullish rally is only expected in case banknifty starts trading and sustains above 39550 level).
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 16 Mar 2023 Expiry---
NSE:BANKNIFTY showed some strength today, mostly signs of a pause after a breakdown over the last sessions.
We opened at 39061 pretty much inline with yesterday's close and quickly started falling to the support zone of 38690. The price action was perfectly aligned with how we traded yesterday, see the highlighted section in cyan color.
The reversal appeared at 10.05, but at 09.54 i posted on banknifty minds that "$BANKNIFTY you wont believe but for further selling to continue we need a pull back at 38690 level
otherwise the selling momentum will die out soon"
The pull back at 10.05 lasted till 11.05 claiming back 1.69% ~ 650pts. This was much more than a pull back, infact we went back into green territory.
At 11.03 i posted this in bank nifty minds "$BANKNIFTY now if the bearish momentum is intact we shouldnt cross the recent swing low on the upside"
The logic being the swing low of yesterday's session would form an interim resistance or a zone where the short sellers may abandon their position at no loss. This prediction also magically came true today.
We fell 1.27% ~ 498pts from the first HOD formed. And the bottom was formed at near the support level.
What happened from 12.35 to 14.25 was something not in my expectations. I couldnt really believe the strength NSE:BANKNIFTY showed to gain 1.59% ~ 617pts. I was looking at the charts of NSE:HDFCBANK , NSE:SBIN and NSE:ICICIBANK and could not really correlate the factors that aided in the rise.
I was hoping that the support level of 38690 will be broken today, i had 2 put debit spreads that went to zero because of my wrong assumptions.
38400/38300 PE at around 12.00 and then naked PE buy of 39000 by 14.45. The weekly expiry would have led to some legitimate price manipulations but the show of strength by banks was not something i expected even by the fundamentals.
---
15mts chart shows 2 contradicting chart patterns
1. Double bottom (W pattern) formed at support zone
2. Lower low, lower high formation when the chart from 13th also included.
---
1hr TF is still bearish, the support may not have broken today. Maybe NSE:BANKNIFTY needs to catch some breath before the next move !
To view all 8 charts in today's discussion visit viswaram. com
[INTRADAY] #BANKNIFTY PE & CE Levels (16/03/2023)Today will be slightly gap down opening in BANKNIFTY. Expected opening below 38950 Level. After opening possible further downside of 400-500 points from this level upto 38550 level. And this can extend for another 400 points if it gives breakdown of 38450 level. Any Bullish rally is only expected in case banknifty starts trading and sustains above 39050 level.
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 15 Mar 2023Nifty bank has not fallen enough, we have not even scratched the surface yet. The pace at which global banks are going insolvent - the real fear has not hit India yet !
Traders, investors & public are just cool here, look at the India VIX - we are still at 16.29% compared with US VIX of 27.2% ~ it means we are trading with 67% lower volatility.
Now - the reason i brought this up is to correlate this data to the important support that NSE:BANKNIFTY broke this week. Further trades may pick up huge momentum & the speed at which things happen - we may not even have time to think.
Let alone using a calculator & assessing the payoff chart of an option strategy.
Coming back to the main topic, NSE:BANKNIFTY would have trapped you on the long side today. You might have seen the SP:SPX , NDQ and TVC:DJI perform fantastically overnight and thought NSE:BANKNIFTY is going to the moon !
It should have, the only reason it did not according to me is because we are below the range breakdown level. An important support that gave away yesterday is a big deal, esp after a long 45 to 46 day consolidation.
So the upmoves if any should be traps. Open was gap up at 39777 and we had 2 legs of fall today.
The first leg of 1% ~ 399pts fall between open to 10.50 and the 2nd leg of 1.93% ~ 766pts between 11.30 to 15.15.
The second leg was more furious, that may be because of the resistance rejection between 11.10 to 11.30. The rejection would have given the bears more conviction to go all-in. Also the small pull back helped pump up the premium & thereby making it easy for new CE credit spreads.
Yesterday's swing low is taken out today - and to an extent we can say that the 39742 support is safely broken.
I am not sure if its relevant, but i found it fishy. There was a 1.27% ~ 498pts rally yesterday 12.00 to 12.30. This would have been the longs taken for the Finnifty expiration tuesday. I am not saying its a manipulation - but this would have given false indicators for the trend. Most of them would have believed that we have hit the interim bottom. This along with today's gap up would have urged them to go long.
---
15mts showing conclusive evidence of bearish pattern as the resistance zone is rejected.
---
1hr TF - cannot really believe all the candles today were RED ! We can look forward to further downside moves as to a certain level of confidence i can say 39742 is broken.
The breakdown is confirmed after a range formation over the last 47 days.
to view all 6 charts in today's discussion visit viswaram. com
#HDFC Looking good for today 15 mar 23#hdfc... ✅▶️
⛳️⛳️⛳️⛳️⛳️⛳️⛳️⛳️⛳️
Intraday as well as swing trade
🔷All levels given in charts ...
we provide stock as well as option level over their
🔷 IF good potential seen then we work in options also
🔷 if activate then possible a huge movement Keep eye on this ...
🔷We take trade only when it activates...
🔻🔻🔻🔻🔻🔻🔻🔻🔻🔻
Possible to give good target
👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍
TRADING FACTS
[INTRADAY] #BANKNIFTY PE & CE Levels(15/03/2023)Today will be a gap up opening in BANKNIFTY. Expected opening below 39950 Level. After opening possible reversal of 400-500 points from 39950 level. And this can extend for another 400 points if it gives breakdown of 39450 level. Any Bullish rally is only expected in case banknifty starts trading and sustains above 40050 level.