Caution ahead of US PPI report | Priority on Sell setups🟡 XAU/USD – 10/09 | Captain Vincent ⚓
🔎 Captain’s Log – Market Context
US 10-year bond yields rebound, signaling the market is awaiting key inflation data.
At 07:30, US PPI report will be released – a crucial figure that could strongly influence FED rate expectations.
Investors are also eyeing US CPI in the coming days to assess the inflation outlook.
The US Supreme Court accepted Trump’s appeal, but this news has not yet had a notable impact on Gold.
⏩ Captain’s Summary: Ahead of inflation data, Gold often tends to correct lower due to cautious sentiment.
📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis
Storm Breaker (Key Resistance):
Bearish OB: 3654 – 3660 (short-term upper cap)
ATH Watchtower: 3700 – 3702 (Sell Zone – possible new ATH test)
Golden Harbor (Strong Support):
Buy Zone: 3601 – 3602
OB Dock: 3582 – 3585
Currently, price is around 3640 – 3645, after a technical rebound from support. High probability that Gold will retest nearby resistance before a downward correction.
🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Scenarios
⚡ Quick Boarding (SELL – Daily Priority)
Entry 1: 3654 – 3660
SL: 3668
TP: 3654 → 3650 → 3618 → 3610
Entry 2 – ATH Test: 3701 – 3703
SL: 3711
TP: 3688 → 3675 → 3665 → 365x
✅ Golden Harbor (BUY – Only at deep support)
Buy Zone: 3601 – 3603
SL: 3592
TP: 3610 → 3620 → 3630
⚓ Captain’s Note
“The golden ship faces turbulent seas today as it sails near Storm Breaker 🌊 (3654 – 3660) . Before the fierce winds called US PPI , sailors should prioritize dropping anchor with short-term SELL positions at resistance. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3601 – 3603) remains a safe haven below, but only when the ship corrects deeply should it dock. On this voyage, Quick Boarding 🚤 is for scalp maneuvers, while the main current is still steered by the stormy waves of inflation.”
Bearishsetup
Bank Nifty spot 54114.55 by the Daily Chart view - Weekly updateBank Nifty spot 54114.55 by the Daily Chart view - Weekly update
- Support Zone 53150 to 53650 for Bank Nifty Index
- Rising Support Channel Breakdown would act as a Resistance
- Resistance Zone earlier Support Zone at 54160 to 54660 for Bank Nifty Index
- Bank Nifty Index trending within the Support and Resistance Zone since last week
- Bearish Rounding Top acting as a resistance and again index closed below Resistance Zone
- Minor Gap Down Opening of Thursday last week closed, now Friday gap down needs a closure
BTCUSD Weekly – Supply Pressure vs Key Support (110K in Focus)On the weekly timeframe, BTC is trapped between major supply (117K–119K) and key support (110K–112K).
Supply Zone: Price has faced multiple rejections near 117K–119K, showing strong seller presence.
Order Block/Resistance: The yellow zone around 113K is acting as an active selling area, preventing BTC from reclaiming higher ground.
Support Zone: BTC is currently testing the 110K–112K support zone. If this level holds, we could see another attempt to reclaim 113K.
Scenarios:
1. Bullish Breakout (less likely unless strong volume appears):
Needs to reclaim 113K and break above 119K.
Target zone → 126K–134K.
Stop loss for longs → below 110K.
2. Bearish Breakdown (higher probability if 110K fails):
If 111K–110K zone breaks, BTC likely retests the 103K–106K demand zone.
If that fails → extended move possible toward 97K.
Stop loss for shorts → above 113.5K.
Bias: Neutral to Bearish unless BTC reclaims 113K with strong volume.
Nifty 50 spot 24,363.30 by the Daily Chart view - Weekly updateNifty 50 spot 24,363.30 by the Daily Chart view - Weekly update
- Support Zone 23850 to 24100 for Nifty Index
- Resistance Zone 24450 to 24700 for Nifty Index earlier Support Zone
- Bearish Rounding pattern top for Nifty 50 Index from ATH 26277.35 to 24073.90 diff 2,203 points
- Nifty 50 Index took reversal from 21964.60 just tad above from expected low of 21870 by 2203 points
- Bearish Rounding Top has repeated from the recent high of 25669.35 to 24473 having a difference of 1196 points
- *Will the same downfall behavior happen and see history repeated for Nifty 50 Index going down till 23276 and then reverse upside*
- *Stock Markets Domestically and Globally, are bearing the brunt of adversely affecting and negatively playing Tariff Tantrum Trumpet*
Bank Nifty spot 55004.90 by Daily Chart view - Weekly updateBank Nifty spot 55004.90 by Daily Chart view - Weekly update
- Fairly decent Support Zone 54160 to 54660 for Bank Nifty Index
- Current Resistance Zone 55050 to 55450 for Bank Nifty Index, earlier Support Zone
- Bearish Rounding Top pattern has sustained for Bank Nifty Index ATH to current Resistance Zone earlier a Support Zone
- Bearish Rounding Top from ATH 57628.40 ending 55149.30 by 2479 points of Bank Nifty index in active downplay mode
- *Will the Bank Nifty Index continue this breakdown journey from the active Resistance Zone and dive down further on too*
- *Stock Markets Domestically and Globally, are bearing the brunt of adversely affecting and negatively playing Tariff Tantrum Trumpet*
NIFTY Technical Breakdown – Rising Wedge Pattern🔻 NIFTY Technical Breakdown – Rising Wedge Pattern
The Nifty 50 has broken down from a rising wedge pattern on the daily timeframe, a bearish reversal formation that often signals distribution at the top.
📉 Key Observations:
Rising wedge breakdown after extended rally
RSI bearish divergence confirming weakness
MACD crossover turning negative
Volume gradually decreasing during the rise, indicating exhaustion
ADX flattening, showing weakening trend strength
📌 Support Levels to Watch:
23,783 – Key swing support
22,798 – Previous breakout zone
📌 Sectoral Rotation:
Defensive sectors like Pharma & FMCG are gaining strength
FII selling pressure, rising DXY, and global uncertainty continue to weigh on sentiment
⚠️ Outlook:
Caution warranted in the short term. Watch for sustained close below 24,900 for further downside confirmation. Macro and global cues to play a key role ahead.
💬 What’s your view on Nifty's near-term direction?
#Nifty50 #TechnicalAnalysis #RisingWedge #MarketOutlook #TradingView #ChartStudy #IndiaMarkets #BearishSetup #NiftyBreakdown #Puneet0130
Opening Range Breakdown – Intraday Bears’ Favorite Setup!Hello Traders!
Today, let’s explore one of the most reliable setups for intraday traders – the Opening Range Breakdown (ORB) . This strategy is widely used by professional traders to catch early downside momentum when the market shows weakness right after opening. If executed correctly, it offers quick profits and tight risk management. Let’s break down how it works and how to trade it with confidence.
What is Opening Range Breakdown (ORB)?
The ORB strategy focuses on the first 15 to 30 minutes of market open . The idea is to mark the high and low of this initial range and look for a breakdown below the low – which signals bearish pressure. This setup works best on volatile days or when there’s negative sentiment in global cues.
Mark the Opening Range:
Track the high and low of the first 15 or 30 minutes of the market open.
Wait for a Breakdown Candle:
Look for a strong bearish candle closing below the opening range low with rising volume.
Enter on Confirmation:
Take a short entry just below the breakdown candle with stop-loss above the opening range high.
Target Previous Day’s Support or VWAP:
Your exit target could be based on previous day’s support, VWAP, or risk-reward ratio like 1:2.
Volume Confirmation is Key:
Avoid low volume breakdowns. Strong volume is what separates real breakdowns from fake-outs.
Ideal Conditions for ORB
Gap Down Open or Weak Global Cues – ORB works well when sentiment is already negative.
High Beta Stocks or Indices like BankNifty – These respond sharply to breakdowns.
No Major Support Below the Breakdown Level – Clean charts increase trade reliability.
Risk Management Tip
Keep your position size small and risk predefined. Don’t chase entries. Let the candle confirm the breakdown and only then execute.
Conclusion:
ORB is a favourite among experienced traders due to its simplicity and effectiveness. If you’re an intraday bear looking for high-probability setups, Opening Range Breakdown is something you must master.
Have you used ORB before? Let me know your experience or results in the comments!
Shorting BTCUSD After Trendline Failure & Bearish RetestPlanning to short BTCUSD as price has rejected from the descending trendline resistance after breaking the minor ascending trendline support. The confluence of trendline rejection and bearish retest suggests potential downside continuation.
Entry Zone: ~107,300–107,350
Stop-Loss: Above 107,550 (recent high)
Target: 106,550 support area
Risk-to-Reward Ratio: ~1:2 (Min) 1:4 (Final Target)
Quote:
"Trendline confluence and failed bullish continuation often lead to deeper pullbacks."
📊 Summary of the Idea
✅Reason for Entry: Multiple rejections at trendline + structure breakdown.
✅Confirmation: Retest rejection candle.
✅Invalidation: A clean breakout and hold above the descending trendline.
ANGELONE - SHORT VIEWWe can look to Short Angel One near 3180 once there is a Negative Candle formation.
Targets are pretty good and risk reward is favourable too. Final Targets can be 2345.
Disclaimer: All information give is for educational purposes. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.
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17 Jan ’24 — How the Mighty has fallen! HDFCBK takes down N50 ⬇️Nifty Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️
Recap from yesterday “We would like to give one more opportunity for Nifty to hold its ground. We would start the day tomorrow with a neutral bias and wait for Nifty to fall below 21913 to go bearish.”
4mts chart
Not only did Nifty50 open 360pts gap-down, but it broke the 21913 support. This was the laxman rekha for us below which we had to go bearish. It all started when HDFCBK -8.44% started giving up points like crazy. The results announced were alright per se, but the signs of NPA going up and EPS staying the same would have unnerved the FIIs. Nifty ended up losing another 100pts to close at -2.09%. When was the last time you saw a 2% or more fall in Nifty50. Even when SPX and NDQ had multiple episodes of 2%+ falls, Nifty50 was showcasing its resilience.
63mts chart
Yesterday Nifty was at the top end of the ascending channel and today it closed right at the bottom end. From 26th Oct 2023, Nifty has always respected the bottom part of the ascending channel. The next support comes up at 21491 and falling below that would also mean we are breaking the channel. We changed the stance from neutral to bearish in the opening minutes, hope you got the email via TradingView minds when we pivoted.
DLF shortDLF's uptrend movement looks like fading away. In today's trading stock closed below 14 days EMA forming bearish inside candle pattern. MACD is also giving a bearish signal.
Disclaimer - I am not a SEBI-registered technical analyst and advisor so contact your financial advisor and make a self-decision. I will not be responsible for any profit or loss.
Adani Ent - Consolidation Downside Breakout Observed that the price action breaks out from the consolidation zone of 145-135 levels and closed below it, indicating further weakness ahead. The price action may further dip down to the 130, 125 levels to also fill up the big gap on the chart too.
T1- 130
T2-125
SL-139
Ashok leyland Agressive Short and long set up this is a set up only for experienced traders, All indications point for a Medium term bullish trend in Ashok Leyland, but i always play with 2 way strategy on any stock i trade. My first set up is bearish set up at CMP stop Loss 130, Buy back price - 116, At 116 i will buy back double and have a stop loss for 115, and then exit partial trade at 130, and then continue with holding till the trend changes. Let me know if you have any doubts