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BTC: last summer update Hello, Following my previous post, BTC is rallying. The hypothesis of a premature end of this season flew away with the arrival of late Altcoin season. As explained in the related analysis, the positive market sentiments is leading coin's prices to new ATH. On the Big BTC, the drawdown on first days of august was due ti high liquidations in ETFs. The news and corporate's declared interest has speed up investor trust and attracted new player which pump the demand and so, the price. The last target, from 2021 cycles were around 120-124K. I gotta say, taken ✅ The liquidity recovers brought BTC to the new levels. What's now ? looking at the bullish trend, the price may reach 125-130K in the short term. Sustained by the fibo's levels approach, the high volume of liquidation around 125k and the increasing OI. The sentiment, which is known to be essential in a crypto analysis so far, and the fear&greed index, show high bullish momentum for the crypto king. Moreover, BTC is the cryptocurrency with the lowest VIX index, around 3-1% in the past days, the first crypto after stablecoins. This proven what said since now. Targets : • 125-130K area for the last short term target • Followed by 132K on a weekly based Prioviuos target, so POI and POL left behind from the Short term cycles are : • around 137K, from the April cycle • around 142K, from June leg up Lets see, M
by itsmcasalinii
PARADEEP Price ActionParadeep Phosphates is trading around ₹164.71 as of July 11, 2025, showing a modest rebound in the latest session after a period of recent weakness. Over the past month, the stock has declined by about 6%, reflecting profit booking and consolidation after a strong rally earlier in the year. Despite this short-term dip, Paradeep Phosphates has delivered robust long-term returns, up nearly 87% over the past year and over 300% in three years. The stock’s 52-week high is ₹183.60, while the low is ₹78.81, indicating considerable volatility and a wide trading range. In recent sessions, the price has fluctuated between ₹160 and ₹165, with active trading volumes suggesting ongoing accumulation and market interest. Support appears to be forming near ₹160, with resistance likely around ₹170–₹175. Valuation-wise, the company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.9 and a price-to-book ratio of 3.23, which are moderate for its sector. Market capitalization stands at approximately ₹13,475 crore, ranking Paradeep Phosphates among the top fertilizer companies in India. The return on equity has averaged just under 10% over the last three years, which is modest relative to some peers. The overall sentiment remains positive for the medium to long term, supported by strong historical returns and sector tailwinds. However, the recent price correction is seen as a healthy pause, and further upside may depend on sustained earnings growth and favorable market conditions. If the stock holds above the ₹160 support, it may attempt to retest higher levels, while a break below this could signal further consolidation.
NSE:PARADEEPLong
by KamalKJoshi
2
• JM Financial: Bullish Cup & Handle Breakout (Entry Triggered)This TradingView chart shows JM Financial’s daily price action forming a classic cup and handle pattern. The price has broken out above the resistance line, triggering a bullish entry opportunity. Stop-loss (SL) is recommended at 181.86 (–4.67% from breakout), with potential for a continued uptrend. Key features: • Pattern: Cup & Handle • Entry: Breakout above resistance (triggered) • Stop Loss: 181.86 • Timeframe: Daily • Indicator: Volume supports breakout Share your thoughts or analysis on this setup and let’s discuss the targets or risk management strategies for maximizing potential profits.
NSE:JMFINANCIL
by TradeTravel_Explore
NAVA Price Analysis ## Current Price and Trend NAVA Limited is trading near ₹610, showing resilience after a period of strong rally. The price action exhibits momentum and relative strength compared to industry peers and the overall market. Despite some weekly volatility, the trend over the past year has been decisively upward, with gains of around 50%. ## Volatility and Performance - **Volatility:** NAVA is moderately volatile, with typical weekly movements near 6%. This is in line with industrial sector averages, making it a relatively stable performer among mid-cap stocks. - **Performance:** Over the last year, NAVA's price has surged over 57%, vastly outperforming the broader Indian industrial sector and market averages. - **Long-Term Growth:** The stock has delivered impressive multi-year returns, far exceeding the sector, and momentum remains positive as of the most recent quarter. ## Valuation - NAVA's price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) ratios are moderate. The P/E is around 16, and the P/B is close to 2, suggesting it is at a fair premium relative to book value but not excessively overvalued compared to growth stocks. - The dividend yield stands at about 1.6%, offering modest income for investors. ## Financial Strength and Prospects - The company recently reported record consolidated revenues, reflecting strong operational performance and expansion initiatives. - Notably, profitability has eased in recent quarters due to operational inefficiencies and investment allocations, yet the financial position remains robust. - Ongoing diversification into renewable energy and international projects, particularly in Africa, point toward sustained revenue streams and future growth opportunities. ## Risk Factors - The stock is about 3.7 times as volatile as the Nifty index, which may be significant for risk-averse investors. - Pending collections and recent dips in profitability highlight operational risks that warrant monitoring. - While market optimism remains, questions persist regarding the efficiency of some recent investments and expansion plans. ## Summary NAVA Limited demonstrates strong long-term growth, a solid market presence, and an optimistic outlook, tempered by recent profitability concerns and operational challenges. The stock's upward trajectory and moderate valuation could appeal to both growth-oriented and value-conscious investors, provided they are comfortable with its inherent volatility and sector-specific risks.
NSE:NAVALong
by KamalKJoshi
3 Signs a Smallcap Can Become a Multibagger!Hello Traders! Smallcap stocks are like hidden treasure chests in the stock market, most people ignore them until they explode in value. But how do you separate future multibaggers from risky bets? Here are 3 signs that can help you spot the potential winners early. 1. Strong & Consistent Revenue Growth A company that’s steadily increasing its sales is building a strong foundation. In smallcaps, consistent revenue growth shows the business is gaining market share and customer trust. Look for companies that can grow even in slower economic conditions. 2. Low or Zero Debt Debt can crush small companies during tough times. A low-debt or debt-free balance sheet means the company can focus on growth instead of paying interest. It also makes them more attractive to institutional investors. 3. Expanding Profit Margins If a company can improve its margins while growing sales, it means they’re becoming more efficient. Better margins often lead to higher profits, which can push the stock price up significantly. Rahul’s Tip: Smallcaps can be multibaggers, but they can also be wealth destroyers if chosen poorly. Always check management quality, industry potential, and whether the company is transparent with its investors. Conclusion: Finding the next multibagger isn’t about luck, it’s about spotting strong fundamentals early. When you find a smallcap with growing sales, low debt, and improving margins, you might just be looking at your next big winner. If this post gave you ideas, like it, share your views in the comments, and follow for more stock market insights you can actually use!
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by TraderRahulPal
3
Sensex Market Structure Analysis & Trade Plan: 21st August🔎 Market Structure (Sensex) 4H Chart Price has retraced upwards from the 80,000 zone support and is currently trading around 81,800. It is entering the supply/FVG zone between 81,900 – 82,200. EMA (≈ 81,100) is sloping up, suggesting short-term bullish bias. Higher resistance supply lies around 82,700 – 83,000. 1H Chart Structure is bullish with BOS confirmed near 81,200. Price is consolidating just under the 82,000 resistance after filling FVG. Any breakdown below 81,600 may open room for deeper retracement into demand at 81,200 – 81,000. 15m Chart Price has created a minor FVG near 81,950, showing rejection from resistance. Short-term demand is at 81,600 – 81,500, and deeper OB demand at 81,200. The intraday trendline still holds, but buyers are showing exhaustion at resistance. 📍 Key Levels Immediate Resistance Zones 81,900 – 82,200 (FVG supply) 82,700 – 83,000 (major supply) Immediate Support Zones 81,600 – 81,500 (intraday demand) 81,200 – 81,000 (4H OB demand) 80,000 (major swing support) 🎯 Trade Plan for Tomorrow Bullish Scenario If price sustains above 82,000, long entries can target 82,200 → 82,700. Breakout above 82,700 may open path toward 83,000 supply zone. Stop loss should be below 81,600 demand zone. Bearish Scenario Rejection at 81,900 – 82,200 may give short setups back to 81,600 → 81,200. If 81,200 breaks, extended downside may test 80,000. Intraday Bias First half: Likely choppy around 82,000 resistance. Second half: Directional move expected depending on whether 82,000 breaks or rejects. ✅ Summary: Sensex is at a critical supply zone (82,000). Tomorrow’s plan hinges on whether bulls can sustain above 82k. If yes → rally toward 82.7k+. If no → rejection back to 81.6k / 81.2k demand.
BSE:SENSEXLong
by BhardwajVipin
Banknifty Market Structure & Trade Plan: 21st August🔎 Market Structure Analysis Higher Timeframe (4H) Price is trading around 55,700, consolidating just above the EMA (55,630). Recent rejection from 56,000–56,200 supply zone suggests short-term weakness. Key Resistance: 56,000–56,200 (recent rejection) 56,400–56,600 (fresh supply) 57,200–57,400 (major supply zone) Key Support: 55,600–55,650 (current demand + EMA support) 55,000–55,200 (next demand zone) 54,400–54,600 (stronger HTF demand) Mid Timeframe (1H) Market is sideways between 55,600–56,000. Minor BOS (Break of Structure) seen earlier, but no strong bullish follow-through. Liquidity buildup both above 56,000 and below 55,600. EMA (55,670) is flat → confirms range-bound conditions. Lower Timeframe (15M) Price forming a tight range between 55,650–55,800. FVG and OB (Order Block) around 55,650–55,700 acting as support. Multiple BOS attempts but market failing to trend → intraday traders should expect false breakouts / liquidity grabs. 📌 Trade Plan for Tomorrow Bullish Scenario (Above 56,000) If price sustains above 56,000, expect a liquidity sweep towards 56,200–56,400. Breakout trade → Entry above 56,050 with SL below 55,850. Targets: 56,200 → 56,400 → 56,600. Bearish Scenario (Below 55,600) If price fails to hold 55,600, selling pressure likely. Short entry below 55,580 with SL above 55,750. Targets: 55,200 → 55,000 → 54,600. Range-Bound Play As long as price stays between 55,600–56,000, avoid aggressive trending trades. Scalp Longs near 55,650 support with SL below 55,550. Scalp Shorts near 56,000 resistance with SL above 56,100. 🎯 Key Levels to Watch Resistance Zones: 56,000–56,200 | 56,400–56,600 | 57,200–57,400 Support Zones: 55,600–55,650 | 55,000–55,200 | 54,400–54,600 ⚠️ Note: Tomorrow’s opening will depend heavily on whether Bank Nifty gaps above 56,000 or below 55,600. If it opens inside the range, best to trade light until a clean breakout occurs.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by BhardwajVipin
Nifty Market Structure Analysis & Trade Plan: 21st August🔎 Market Structure Analysis (Nifty 50) Higher Timeframe (4H) Current Price: 25,047 Key Resistance Zone: 25,120 – 25,300 (FVG + Supply zone) Immediate Support Zone: 24,900 – 24,950 (recent OB + demand area) Trend Bias: Price has broken above recent swing highs but is now stalling at the first FVG resistance. EMA 24,782: Price trading above EMA → trend is still bullish in the medium term. Intraday (1H & 15M) Short-term Structure: Price attempted 25,100–25,120 resistance and faced rejection (sign of supply). Liquidity Sweep: Minor liquidity grab above 25,100 zone followed by retracement → indicates possible short-term pullback. Demand Area: 24,950 – 24,980 remains the key zone to watch for long re-entries. Bias: Short-term consolidation between 24,950 – 25,120 before breakout. 📌 Key Levels for August 21 Resistance Zones: 25,100 – 25,120 (immediate rejection zone) 25,250 – 25,300 (major supply/FVG zone, strong resistance) Support Zones: 24,950 – 24,980 (intraday demand/OB) 24,680 – 24,720 (swing demand zone, green box) 📈 Trade Plan for Aug 21, 2025 Scenario 1 – Bullish Continuation If price sustains above 25,120, expect momentum towards 25,250 – 25,300. Entry: Breakout & retest above 25,120. Stop: Below 25,000. Target: 25,280 – 25,300. Scenario 2 – Pullback to Demand If rejection continues at 25,100, expect retracement to 24,950 – 24,980. Entry: Long near 24,960 demand zone (confirmation required). Stop: Below 24,900. Target: 25,120, then trail towards 25,250. Scenario 3 – Breakdown Bearish If price breaks below 24,900, intraday bias shifts bearish. Entry: Short below 24,900 with volume. Stop: Above 24,980. Target: 24,720 – 24,680 demand zone. ✅ Bias for Tomorrow: Overall bullish trend intact as long as 24,900 holds. Expect range 24,950 – 25,120 before a decisive breakout. Watch for liquidity grabs at resistance (25,100–25,120) for intraday shorts and demand re-tests at 24,950 for intraday longs.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by BhardwajVipin
Part 3 Trading Master Class Option Trading in India (2025 Context) India has seen an explosive rise in options trading. NSE reports show daily options turnover crossing ₹300 trillion in notional value. Popular contracts: Nifty 50 Weekly Options Bank Nifty Weekly Options FinNifty, Sensex, and Stock Options Retail traders prefer weekly expiries because they are cheaper and offer fast opportunities. Institutions use monthly contracts for hedging and spreads. 10. Option Trading Psychology Success in options is not just about strategies; it’s about mindset. Discipline: Stick to stop-loss and position sizing. Avoid Greed: Do not sell naked options without risk management. Patience: Not every day is a trading day. Continuous Learning: Market conditions and volatility regimes keep changing.
TVC:IN01YEducation
by SkyTradingZone
6
Part 2 Trading Master Class Advantages of Option Trading Leverage – Small capital controls large positions. Flexibility – Strategies for any market condition. Defined Risk (for buyers) – Maximum loss = premium. Hedging Tool – Protects portfolios from crashes. Income Generation – Through selling options (covered calls, spreads). Risks in Option Trading Time Decay – Value erodes quickly near expiry. Unlimited Loss for Sellers – Naked option selling is very risky. Volatility Crush – After events like results, volatility falls and option premiums collapse. Liquidity Risk – Some contracts are illiquid, making exit difficult. Psychological Stress – Options move very fast; requires discipline.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDEducation
by SkyTradingZone
12
PCR Trading How Option Trading Works Let’s simplify with an example: Stock Price: ₹1000 Call Option Strike: ₹1050 Premium: ₹20 Lot Size: 100 shares If you buy the call option: Break-even = Strike Price + Premium = ₹1070 If stock goes to ₹1100 → Profit = (1100-1050-20) × 100 = ₹3000 If stock stays below ₹1050 → You lose only the premium = ₹2000 If you sell (write) the call option: You collect ₹2000 premium upfront. If stock stays below 1050, you keep the entire premium as profit. But if stock goes to ₹1100, you face unlimited loss: (1100-1050-20) × 100 = -₹3000. 👉 This shows: Option buyers have limited risk but unlimited profit potential, while sellers have limited profit but unlimited risk.
TVC:GOLDEducation
by SkyTradingZone
8
TIMETECHNO Price ction ### Market Metrics - **Current share price:** ₹458.10. - **Market capitalization:** ₹10,396crore. - **52-week price range:** ₹306.60 (low) to ₹513.55 (high). - **All-time low:** ₹17.55 (Feb 19, 2009). - **All-time high:** ₹513.55 (Dec 13, 2024). ### Returns & Volatility - **1-week change:** Down 1.98%. - **1-month change:** Up 4.83%. - **1-year return:** Up 43.18%. - **Recent volatility:** Daily moves between ₹451.70 and ₹466.10 common. - **Beta:** Not specified, but price swings indicate moderate volatility for sector. ### Valuation - **Price/Earnings Ratio:** 26.79, above sector average. - **Price/Book Ratio:** 3.88, also higher than sector average. - **Dividend yield:** 0.55%. ### Company Fundamentals - **Revenue (Trailing 12 months):** Approximately ₹54,570million. - **Net profit margin:** 7.1%, improved over last year. - **EPS (Trailing 12 months):** ₹17.10 (16.29% YoY growth). - **Book value per share:** ₹118.21. - **Return on Equity:** 13.3%. ### Growth & Profitability - **Annual earnings growth:** 25% (past year), average 25.4% over 5 years. - **Net profit for Q1 2025:** ₹10,952lakhs, up 18.6% YoY. - **Free cash flow remains positive; margin improvement noted over 5 years.** - **Return on assets:** 9.04%. ### Valuation Analysis - **High PE and PB ratios indicate the stock is priced above sector averages.** - **Recent buy recommendations from analysts; fair value status varies by source.** ### Qualitative Notes - **Strong earnings and steady sales growth, but trading above intrinsic metrics.** - **Growth momentum has slowed versus earlier years, though above industry norm.** - **Stable dividend payout policy, but yield remains modest.** - **Technical signals ranged from neutral to bullish in July and August 2025.** **Summary:** The stock is trading at a high valuation given its growth history and sector performance. Investors should consider recent price corrections, volatility, and elevated PE/PB ratios before entering at current levels. The company maintains strong growth and profitability but is subject to valuation risk if sector trends reverse.
NSE:TIMETECHNOLong
by KamalKJoshi
Risk Management in TradingIntroduction Trading is often seen as the art of predicting market moves, buying low, and selling high. Yet, the most successful traders will tell you that trading is not about prediction, it’s about protection. The markets are uncertain, and no strategy, indicator, or system can guarantee 100% accuracy. What separates consistently profitable traders from losing ones is not just their ability to analyze charts but their skill in managing risk. Risk management is the backbone of long-term survival in trading. Without it, even the best strategies eventually fail. With it, even an average strategy can deliver consistent returns over time. In this guide, we’ll dive deep into what risk management is, why it matters, and the tools and techniques every trader must master. Chapter 1: What is Risk in Trading? Risk in trading refers to the possibility of losing money due to adverse market movements. Every trade carries uncertainty, and risk management is about controlling the size and impact of that uncertainty. There are different types of risk in trading: Market Risk (Price Risk): The chance of prices moving against your trade. For example, buying a stock at ₹100 and it falls to ₹90. Leverage Risk: Using borrowed money or margin amplifies both gains and losses. A small price move can wipe out capital if leverage is excessive. Liquidity Risk: The inability to exit a position at the desired price due to low trading volume. This happens often in small-cap stocks or thinly traded futures. Volatility Risk: Sudden price swings can trigger stop losses or create unexpected losses, especially around news events. Psychological Risk: Emotional decisions – fear, greed, revenge trading – often increase losses. Systemic Risk: External shocks like economic crises, geopolitical tensions, or pandemics can affect all markets simultaneously. In simple terms: Risk = Probability of Loss × Magnitude of Loss. Chapter 2: Why Risk Management is the Core of Trading Most beginners focus on finding the “perfect strategy.” They try indicators, signals, or tips. But even the most accurate strategies have losing trades. Consider two traders: Trader A: Has a 70% winning strategy but risks 20% of capital per trade. Trader B: Has a 50% winning strategy but risks only 1% of capital per trade. Who survives longer? Trader B. Why? Because Trader A only needs a short losing streak to blow up his account, while Trader B can survive hundreds of trades. Risk management ensures three things: Survival: You live to trade another day. Consistency: Your equity curve grows steadily without wild drawdowns. Confidence: Knowing losses are controlled reduces stress and emotions. In short: Trading without risk management is gambling. Chapter 3: The Mathematics of Risk 3.1 The Risk of Ruin Risk of ruin means the probability of losing all your trading capital. If you risk too much per trade, your account may not survive inevitable losing streaks. Example: If you risk 20% per trade, a losing streak of just 5 trades wipes out 67% of your account. To recover, you would need a 200% gain! But if you risk 1% per trade, even 20 consecutive losses only reduce your account by ~18%. That’s survivable. 3.2 Risk-Reward Ratio The Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) measures potential reward compared to risk. If you risk ₹100 to make ₹200, your RRR is 1:2. A higher RRR allows profitability even with a low win rate. For example: At 1:2 RRR, you need only 34% win rate to break even. At 1:3 RRR, just 25% win rate keeps you profitable. 3.3 Position Sizing Formula A popular formula is: Position Size = (Account Size × Risk per Trade) ÷ Stop Loss (in points/value) Example: Account Size = ₹1,00,000 Risk per Trade = 1% = ₹1,000 Stop Loss = ₹10 per share Position Size = 1000 ÷ 10 = 100 shares This ensures you never lose more than ₹1,000 in that trade. Chapter 4: Tools of Risk Management 4.1 Stop Loss A stop-loss order closes your trade automatically at a pre-defined price to limit losses. Types: Hard Stop: Fixed exit point. Trailing Stop: Moves with price to lock profits. 4.2 Take Profit Opposite of stop-loss – locks in gains at a target level. 4.3 Diversification Never put all capital into one trade or one asset. Spread risk across instruments, sectors, or strategies. 4.4 Hedging Using options, futures, or correlated assets to reduce risk. Example: Buying Nifty futures and buying a protective put option. 4.5 Risk per Trade Rule Most professional traders risk 0.5% to 2% of capital per trade. This balance allows growth while protecting against drawdowns. 4.6 Daily Loss Limit Set a maximum daily loss (e.g., 3% of account). If hit, stop trading for the day. This prevents emotional revenge trades. Chapter 5: Psychological Aspects of Risk Risk management is not just technical; it’s psychological. Many traders fail because of: Overconfidence: After wins, increasing position size too aggressively. Fear: Cutting winners too early or avoiding valid trades. Greed: Holding losers, hoping they’ll turn profitable. Revenge Trading: Trying to recover losses quickly, leading to bigger losses. Good risk management enforces discipline. You follow rules, not emotions. Chapter 6: Advanced Risk Management Strategies 6.1 Kelly Criterion A mathematical formula to optimize bet size based on edge and win probability. Formula: f = (bp – q) / b* Where: f = fraction of capital to risk b = odds (reward/risk) p = probability of win q = probability of loss Although powerful, many traders use a fraction of Kelly (half-Kelly) to reduce volatility. 6.2 Value at Risk (VaR) Common in institutional trading. It estimates the maximum expected loss over a given period at a certain confidence level (e.g., 95%). 6.3 Volatility-Based Position Sizing Adjust position size according to market volatility. If volatility is high, trade smaller; if low, trade larger. 6.4 Portfolio Risk Management Beyond individual trades, manage total portfolio risk. For example: Limit exposure to correlated trades (e.g., don’t go long on multiple IT stocks at once). Set maximum portfolio drawdown (e.g., 10%). Chapter 7: Real-Life Examples Example 1: The Trader Without Risk Management Rahul has ₹1,00,000. He risks ₹20,000 per trade. After just 5 consecutive losses, his account drops to ₹33,000. To recover, he now needs +200% returns. Emotionally shattered, Rahul quits trading. Example 2: The Disciplined Trader Priya also starts with ₹1,00,000. She risks 1% per trade = ₹1,000. After 5 losses, she still has ₹95,000. She survives, learns, improves her strategy, and grows steadily. Moral: Survival > Prediction. Chapter 8: Building a Personal Risk Management Plan Every trader must design a plan tailored to their style. Key components: Capital Allocation: How much capital to trade vs. keep in reserve. Risk per Trade: Set a percentage (1–2%). Stop Loss Rules: Fixed or ATR (Average True Range) based. Position Sizing Method: Use formula or volatility-based sizing. Diversification Rules: Limit exposure per sector/asset. Daily & Weekly Loss Limits: Stop trading after exceeding them. Review & Adaptation: Analyze performance monthly and adjust. Chapter 9: Common Mistakes Traders Make Trading without stop losses. Risking too much on one trade. Averaging down losing trades. Ignoring correlation between trades. Trading during high-impact news without preparation. Not tracking risk metrics (drawdown, expectancy, RRR). Chapter 10: Risk Management for Different Trading Styles Day Traders: Must be strict with intraday stop losses and daily limits. Swing Traders: Should focus on overnight gap risk and diversify across positions. Long-Term Investors: Must manage concentration risk and rebalance portfolios. Options Traders: Need to monitor Greeks (Delta, Gamma, Vega) for exposure. Conclusion Risk management is the invisible hand that shapes trading success. While strategies may change, markets may evolve, and tools may improve, the principle remains timeless: Control risk, and profits will take care of themselves. Every trader faces uncertainty, but those who respect risk survive and thrive. Without risk management, trading becomes a casino. With it, trading becomes a business.
TVC:GOLDEducation
by TechnicalExpress
10
Fundamental Analysis vs Technical Analysis: Which Strategy Wins?Introduction In the world of stock market investing and trading, two schools of thought dominate: Fundamental Analysis (FA) and Technical Analysis (TA). Both approaches aim to answer the same question — “Should I buy, hold, or sell this stock?” — but they take entirely different paths to reach their conclusion. Fundamental analysis focuses on the business behind the stock: revenues, profits, assets, management quality, industry position, and future growth potential. Technical analysis focuses on the stock’s price and volume behavior, studying patterns and trends to predict short-term and long-term movements. This debate has existed for decades, with investors like Warren Buffett standing firmly on the side of fundamentals, and traders like Paul Tudor Jones thriving on technicals. But in reality, the answer to “which strategy wins” is more nuanced. In this guide, we’ll break down both approaches in detail, compare their strengths and weaknesses, and analyze which one works better in different market contexts. Part 1: Understanding Fundamental Analysis What is Fundamental Analysis? Fundamental Analysis (FA) is the study of a company’s intrinsic value. The idea is simple: every stock has a “true worth,” and if its current market price is lower than this intrinsic value, it’s undervalued (a buying opportunity). Conversely, if the market price is higher, it’s overvalued (a selling or shorting opportunity). Key Components of FA Financial Statements Income Statement (profit & loss) → Are revenues and profits growing? Balance Sheet → Does the company have too much debt? Cash Flow Statement → Is the company generating real cash or just accounting profits? Ratios & Metrics P/E Ratio (Price-to-Earnings) – How much are investors willing to pay for each unit of earnings? P/B Ratio (Price-to-Book) – Is the stock valued fairly compared to assets? ROE (Return on Equity) – How efficiently is management using investor capital? Debt-to-Equity – Is the company financially stable? Qualitative Factors Management quality Competitive advantage (moat) Industry trends Government policies and regulations Macroeconomic Factors Inflation, interest rates, GDP growth Global economic conditions Sectoral growth trends Example of Fundamental Analysis in Action Imagine you’re analyzing Infosys. Revenue and profits have been steadily growing. P/E ratio is lower than peers like TCS and Wipro. Strong cash flows, low debt, high ROE. The IT industry is expected to grow as global businesses continue digital transformation. Conclusion: Infosys is fundamentally strong, and if its stock is trading at a reasonable valuation, it may be a good long-term buy. Part 2: Understanding Technical Analysis What is Technical Analysis? Technical Analysis (TA) studies price and volume patterns on stock charts to predict future movements. The underlying belief is that “Price reflects everything” — all news, fundamentals, and emotions are already priced into the stock. Thus, by studying charts, traders can anticipate where the price will move next. Key Components of TA Price Charts Line charts, candlestick charts, bar charts Trends Uptrend (higher highs, higher lows) Downtrend (lower highs, lower lows) Sideways (range-bound) Support & Resistance Levels Support = a price level where demand is strong enough to stop decline Resistance = a level where selling pressure stops price rise Technical Indicators Moving Averages (MA, EMA) – Identify trend direction RSI (Relative Strength Index) – Measures overbought/oversold conditions MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) – Identifies momentum shifts Bollinger Bands – Measures volatility and breakout possibilities Chart Patterns Head & Shoulders, Double Top, Cup & Handle, Triangles, Flags, etc. Volume Analysis Rising price + high volume = strong bullish confirmation Falling price + high volume = strong bearish confirmation Example of Technical Analysis in Action Suppose Reliance Industries is trading at ₹2,500. The stock has formed strong support at ₹2,450 and resistance at ₹2,600. RSI shows it’s oversold near 30, suggesting a bounce. Volume spikes confirm buying interest. A candlestick reversal pattern (hammer) forms near support. Conclusion: Reliance may bounce from ₹2,450 towards ₹2,600 in the short term, making it a good trading opportunity. Part 3: Key Differences Between FA and TA Aspect Fundamental Analysis Technical Analysis Focus Business, financials, valuation Price, volume, market psychology Timeframe Long-term investing (months to years) Short to medium-term trading (minutes to weeks) Tools Balance sheet, ratios, economy, management analysis Charts, indicators, patterns, support/resistance Philosophy “Buy good businesses at the right price” “Price discounts everything; trends repeat” Users Investors, value investors, mutual funds Traders, swing traders, day traders, scalpers Strengths Identifies undervalued stocks for wealth creation Captures quick moves for profit Weaknesses Slow, doesn’t time entries well May give false signals, ignores fundamentals Part 4: Strengths & Weaknesses of Each Approach Strengths of FA Helps identify multi-bagger stocks (e.g., Infosys, HDFC Bank, Asian Paints). Provides long-term conviction, reducing panic selling. Focuses on wealth creation rather than just trading gains. Weaknesses of FA Doesn’t provide precise entry/exit timing. Market can stay irrational for long (undervalued stocks may stay undervalued). Requires deep knowledge of finance and economics. Strengths of TA Provides timing precision (when to buy/sell). Useful for short-term profits. Works in any market — stocks, forex, commodities, crypto. Weaknesses of TA Can be subjective (two traders may interpret the same chart differently). False signals are common. Doesn’t consider company fundamentals — risky if used blindly. Part 5: Which Strategy Wins? The answer isn’t either/or. The real winners are those who know when to use which approach. For Long-Term Investors FA is the primary tool. Example: Warren Buffett uses fundamentals to identify businesses that will compound wealth over decades. For Short-Term Traders TA is more effective. Example: Day traders and swing traders rely on charts, not balance sheets. For Hybrid Investors (Best of Both Worlds) The most successful investors often combine both. Example: Buy fundamentally strong companies (FA) and use TA for better entry/exit timing. Part 6: Real-Life Examples Amazon (FA Winner): In 2001, Amazon was loss-making, but fundamental believers in e-commerce saw potential. Long-term holders became millionaires. Tesla (FA + TA): Initially, Tesla looked overvalued by fundamentals, but TA showed strong momentum and trend-following traders made massive gains. Yes Bank (FA Ignored): Many traders made profits using TA in short-term swings, but long-term FA showed cracks in fundamentals, leading to eventual collapse. Part 7: Market Conditions – Who Wins When? Bull Market → Both FA and TA work. FA finds strong companies, TA helps ride the trend. Bear Market → TA is more useful for risk management. FA may trap investors in “value traps.” Sideways Market → TA is superior as it identifies range-bound trades. Post-Crash Recovery → FA wins by identifying undervalued gems for long-term recovery. Conclusion The debate of Fundamental Analysis vs Technical Analysis isn’t about which is superior, but about which fits your goals, personality, and timeframe. If you want to build long-term wealth → Go with Fundamental Analysis. If you want to make short-term profits → Technical Analysis is your tool. If you want the best of both worlds → Combine FA + TA. Ultimately, markets reward not those who argue which strategy is better, but those who apply the right strategy at the right time.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by TechnicalExpress
4
Nifty50 Intraday Rebound-Sets Eyes For Long 🔍 Key Observations: ✅ A fresh Buy label has printed after a series of lower lows — suggesting potential momentum shift. 🔴 Previous Sell cluster accurately marked the swing high near 25,145 zone. ⚪ Price is still trading below the 200 EMA, but attempting to reclaim short-term trendlines. 🟫 Minor Liquidity Box indicates supply pressure ahead, aligning with previous structure resistance. 📊 Risk-to-reward suggests the move could extend towards 25,145.35, if price holds above 24,707. 🎯 Setup Summary: Bias: Cautiously bullish, short-term retracement within broader downtrend Target Zone: 25,145 – matching previous support turned resistance Invalidation: Below 24,647 where recent demand may fail 🧠 Educational Insight: This setup highlights a classic counter-trend bounce from oversold levels, often seen when market participants begin profit-taking or short-covering. Momentum confirmation is crucial beyond the red zone to validate follow-through. ⏱ Timeframe: 15-Minute (Intraday)
NSE:NIFTYLong
by LEOLALENS-OFFICIAL
4
ABCAPITAL(cup& handle)My analysis is large capital company with good returns. Key piont is Make cup and handle pattern look into chart how was possible to Target reach . Road map create for our target is 230, 300 but .. respect to SL .. LIKE ME . Company has delivered good profit growth of 47.2% CAGR over last 5 years Shareholding pattern (%) As On Dec-23 Promoter 69.0 % DII 8.4% FII 10.6 % Others 12.0 % for MORE check in my TradingView ID If You LIKE👌👌 MY Idea ......Boost.🔥🔥🔥.. its. "Disclosure : I am not Sebi-registered." This channel is for only educational purpose. Any profit/loss, I am not responsible. Before taking any trade on our charts / calls, please consult your financial advisors. Thanks🙏
NSE:ABCAPITAL
by asAMOLSUTAR
Nifty Daily Analysis:-- Day_2Looking at the nifty on Monday sellers are in charge, on Tuesday the buyers are in charge. Nifty is stuck in the range of Monday and formed an inside bar. Monday open 24942 is where the price is getting again and again and bounces back up or down. >> I have gone back to 2020 and seen than there is close to 29 incidence where Tuesday is an inside bar. Price making a higher close on Wednesday is 31% chance. Price making a lower close on Wednesday is 17% chance. Price making a close inside Tuesday Range is 51% chance. ATR on 39 period is 213 okay. >>>If price moves up than the expected mean range is 213, 24980+ 213 = 25193, but in above we have a monthly 50% fib region + a monthly high of May at 25116, also 25000 as a big number. >>>If price make a low than expected range is 213, 24980-213 = 24767 as a range. It has 24790 as a week 1.62% region acting as some sort of resistance plus gap 50% fib level. So next day full prep.
NSE:NIFTY
by hritwikanmol045
1
Swing/Positional Trade Idea: Jamna Auto (NSE: JAMNAAUTO)Pattern Alert: Rounding Bottom Nears Breakout! 📈 Technical Setup Daily Chart Pattern: Price is completing a multi-month rounding bottom (bullish reversal pattern), signaling accumulation. Current Price: Consolidating near ₹88.80, approaching the crucial breakout zone of ₹94.25–95.60. Confirmation Trigger: A decisive close above ₹95.60 on rising volume validates the breakout. 🎯 Trade Strategy Entry: Buy on breakout confirmation above ₹95.60 (close basis). Stop Loss: ₹86.36 (below the recent swing low & pattern support). Targets: T1: ₹106 (+11% from breakout) T2: ₹113 (+18%) T3: ₹123 (+29%) T4: ₹133 (+39%) Final Target: ₹149 (all-time high, +56%) Risk-Reward: 1:5+ (based on SL to T1). ⚠️ Key Notes Patience Required: This is a positional trade with a 3–6 month horizon. Hold through minor pullbacks. Volume Confirmation: Breakout must be backed by +50% above average volume for conviction. 💡 Why This Works Rounding bottoms indicate long-term trend reversal with high follow-through probability. Targets align with Fibonacci extensions & prior swing highs. Low-risk entry: Tight SL (8% risk) for asymmetric upside. Trade smart. Track volume. Patience pays! 🔥 Like this idea? Hit "Boost" to increase visibility! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 📜 GENERAL DISCLAIMER This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy/sell securities. Trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. ❗ KEY RISK ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Not Personalized Advice: This idea is based on technical analysis and may not align with your risk profile, capital, or goals. Past Performance ≠ Future Results: Patterns may fail due to market volatility, news, or sector weakness. Capital Risk: You may lose all or more than your initial investment. Use only risk capital. Stop Loss Execution: SL orders may trigger below ₹86.36 during gaps or low liquidity. Holding Period: Positional trades require monitoring. Unforeseen events (earnings, regulations, global shocks) could invalidate the setup. Bias Alert: This is a bullish bias idea. Always assess bearish scenarios. 🔍 Verify Independently Cross-verify with fundamentals (debt, earnings, management). Check broader market trends (Nifty Auto, Nifty 500). Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before acting. ⚠️ YOUR RESPONSIBILITY You alone are accountable for trading decisions. The author/platform assumes no liability for losses.
NSE:JAMNAAUTOLong
by Alert_Trader
10
Nested Bullish Patterns Signal Major Breakout!Script: NSE:SUPREMEIND | Timeframe: Daily | Analysis Type: Technical (Pure Price Action) | Patterns: Symmetrical Triangle + Cup & Handle Idea Summary 💡 A powerful, nested pattern setup is concluding on the daily chart! A large Symmetrical Triangle contains a secondary Cup and Handle (Bullish) pattern. This rare confluence signals strong accumulation and suggests an imminent, powerful upside breakout is likely! Chart Pattern Logic 🔍 Primary Pattern (Symmetrical Triangle): Characterized by descending resistance (highs: Dec-18-2024, Jun-17-2025) and ascending support (lows: Apr-9-2025, May-9-2025, Jul-24-2025). Secondary Pattern (Cup & Handle): Formed entirely within the triangle, adding a potent layer of bullish confirmation. Confluence: This pattern-within-a-pattern setup significantly amplifies the potential for a strong upward resolution. Trade Thesis 📈 Price is coiling at the triangle's apex under immense pressure. A decisive break above the upper trendline could ignite the next major bullish impulse phase. Trade Setup ⚡ Direction: LONG 🟢 Entry Trigger: WAIT for a strong Marubozu green candle 🕯️ to close above the triangle's trendline on high volume (min. 1.5x average). Stop Loss: Below the low of the breakout candle. 🛑 Profit Targets: 4700 🎯 | 4800 🎯 | 5125 🎯 Long-Term Target: 6000+ (Extended Target Based on Pattern Confluence & Momentum) 🚀 Risk Management: Trail stops aggressively after Target 1. Got another stock you want me to break down? 📊 Drop the ticker in the comments below! If you found this idea useful, like and follow for more pure price action analysis. Disclaimer: This post/information is solely for educational purposes and should not be construed as a recommendation or financial advice. Trading carries a risk of loss. Please conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author and TradingView are not liable for any financial losses incurred based on this content.
NSE:SUPREMEINDLong
by Alert_Trader
Free Cash Flow – The Most Ignored Metric That Can Save You!Hello Traders! When most people look at a company’s financials, they stop at profits. But smart investors know that profits on paper don’t always mean cash in hand. That’s where Free Cash Flow (FCF) comes in, the metric that reveals the real financial strength of a business. What is Free Cash Flow? Free Cash Flow is the money a company has left after paying all operating expenses and making necessary investments in its business. It’s the cash available to pay dividends, buy back shares, reduce debt, or reinvest for growth. Why It Matters More Than Reported Profits Cash is King: A company might report high profits but still struggle if it doesn’t have actual cash flow. FCF shows if the business can fund itself without borrowing. Signals Financial Health: Consistently positive FCF means the company generates enough money to grow and reward shareholders. Negative FCF for many years can be a red flag unless it’s due to planned growth investments. Protects During Tough Times: Companies with strong FCF can survive economic slowdowns without cutting essential spending or taking on expensive debt. How to Check It You can find FCF in the company’s cash flow statement: FCF = Operating Cash Flow – Capital Expenditures Rahul’s Tip: Don’t just chase high profits. Always check if the company is actually generating cash, because without cash, growth and survival both become impossible. Conclusion: Free Cash Flow might be the most ignored metric in investing, but it’s also one of the most powerful. It tells you if a company can stand on its own feet, grow sustainably, and protect your investment in tough markets. If you found this useful, like the post, share your view in the comments, and follow for more practical investing tips!
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by TraderRahulPal