Gold price recovered break 3340, price increasedPlan XAU day: 02 July 2025
Related Information:!!!
Gold Demand in China Expected to Rise Further
"Gold prices (XAU/USD) fluctuated between modest gains and slight losses during the first half of the European session on Wednesday, remaining below the one-week high reached the previous day. The US Dollar has regained some positive momentum, appearing to break a seven-day losing streak that had brought it to its lowest level since February 2022. This renewed strength in the greenback is acting as a headwind for the precious metal. Additionally, a broadly positive risk sentiment in the market is seen as another factor limiting the upside potential for the safe-haven asset.
personal opinion:!!!
Gold price continues to recover after breaking the 3340 price zone, buying power maintained before ADP-NF news today
Important price zone to consider : !!!
SELL point: 3366 zone
Sustainable trading to beat the market
Beyond Technical Analysis
Jio Financial ---- Deep AnalysisJIOFIN -- High Probability Reversal Setup Based on ICT & SMC Concepts
Timeframe - Daily
Projection -- High Probability Reversal Setup expected.
Price Action Overview --
Stock is currently Respecting an internal bullish structure without breaking higher lows.
And stock is currently moving towards High probability POI zone along with --
Order block + FVG is 330-340 levels
Liquidity zone just below the Order block
Liquidity & POI Zone ----
Immediate Liquidity is resting above the levels of 290-300
Imbalance ---
Downside VOlume imbalance between 250-260 levels
below that there is breaker block support zone
RSI ----
Rsi divergence observed at bottom, which shows a bullish move
Rsi showing potential exhaustion or say confluence for reversal after POI is tapped.
Final projection for next 2-3-4 months view -----
Main Target (High Probability) -- Price likely to sweep buy-side liquidity above 300-310
tapping into orderblock + FVG zone 330-340 levels
Expecting strong rejection and sell-off towards Volume imbalance(255) and Breaker block(235)
If main Target Does not go well --- If rejection occures earlier around 300-310 then a partial distribution may trigger
earlier dump into volume imbalance without reaching to Orderblock.
This setup is just reflecting classic Buy-side liquidity grab >>>>> Sell off into imbalance.
Your views or comments are really welcomed. Also just give comments for any confusion or clarification.
#Nifty #Sensex #Jio #Reliance
Paras Defence Price ActionParas Defence and Space Technologies is currently trading near ₹1,630, having delivered a substantial rally over the past year and outperformed many of its peers in the defence sector. The stock has risen more than 100% from its 52-week low and is trading close to its all-time high, reflecting strong investor confidence and robust momentum. Year-to-date, the stock is up over 60%, though it has shown some short-term volatility with a recent pullback of about 9% in just two days, suggesting a phase of consolidation or correction after its sharp rally.
Fundamentally, the company has demonstrated impressive growth, with recent quarterly results showing revenue up nearly 36% year-on-year and net profit more than doubling. Its return on equity is healthy, and the business remains largely debt-free, which supports its financial stability. The company is also preparing for its first-ever stock split, with a record date set for July 4, 2025. This move is expected to enhance liquidity and attract more retail investors.
Despite these positives, Paras Defence is trading at a high price-to-earnings ratio, indicating that the stock is priced for strong future growth and leaving little room for disappointment. Analyst sentiment is generally positive for the long term, but there is near-term caution due to the recent run-up in price and some signs of weakening momentum. Technical analysts point to key support levels around ₹1,500–₹1,570, with a need for the stock to reclaim ₹1,630 for renewed bullishness.
Overall, Paras Defence is benefiting from strong sector tailwinds, government investment in defence, and its own technological capabilities. While the long-term outlook remains promising, investors should be mindful of the elevated valuation and the potential for further short-term corrections as the stock digests its recent gains.
Gold Short-Term Analysis – Bearish Structure Firmly Intact.Gold remains locked in a well-defined bearish structure, with a clear downward channel established by multiple touchpoints. Price has retraced sharply, but the rally has stalled precisely at the HVZ resistance zone between 3,355–3,390, which coincides with the upper boundary of the channel. This HVZ acts as a supply zone, where aggressive selling pressure has consistently emerged. There is no sustainable bullish reversal as long as price remains below 3,390, and any intraday spikes into the HVZ are opportunities for bears to reload positions.
The recent steep rally is a corrective move within the broader bearish trend formation, not a structural shift. This corrective phase has already lost momentum, evident in the failure to close convincingly above the HVZ. The bearish thesis remains valid as long as price trades below 3,390 no exceptions.
The downside roadmap is clear:
A decisive rejection from the HVZ zone sends price back to the break line at 3,250, which is a critical price area.
Breaching 3,250 opens a clean path for continuation down to the primary bearish target at 3,205–3,203, aligning with the measured move from the channel width and historical support levels.
Key Points:
The channel structure is intact; the recent upward leg is corrective, not impulsive.
Resistance aligns with previous failed rallies, reinforcing the HVZ’s strength as a sell zone.
No macro catalyst supports a sustainable breakout above HVZ; upside liquidity grabs will get sold into.
Only a confirmed close above 3,390 with follow-through invalidates the bearish structure nothing else.
Conclusion:
The trend is bearish. Price below 3,390 is an active short bias with targets at 3,250 and 3,205. Upside is capped by strong supply; intraday rallies into HVZ provide the best risk-reward short setups. Bullish scenarios are irrelevant unless the HVZ is convincingly broken with high volume.
NIFTY Analysis – 02 july 2025 ,morning update at 9 amMarket Condition:
Pattern: Bottleneck (Last candle of pattern on 1D chart)
Key Observation: Nifty closed near 23.6% false level
Flat to sideways expected near 25560, may test 25580
Scenarios
Above 25580: Possible up move to 25650 if bottleneck pattern forms
Below 25500 (with volume): May fall to 25446
Strategy:
Use BOD (buy on dip or SOR (Sell on Rise) strategy
Prefer scalping till clear pattern emerges
📊 Levels Mentioned
➤ Support Levels:
25446
25375
25312
➤ Resistance Levels:
25582
25650
25700
Strengths of my Post
Good use of pattern analysis (Bottleneck pattern)
Accurate false level strategy application
Clearly explained scenarios for upside and downside
Provided precautionary note before market open
PepsiCo (PEP): A Potential Shift from Downtrend
Following a prolonged corrective phase that commenced in March 2025, PepsiCo's price action is exhibiting noteworthy signs of a potential bullish reversal. A significant breakout from a multi-week consolidation range on the daily timeframe suggests a possible shift from distribution to accumulation. This hypothesis is supported by strengthening momentum indicators and the reclamation of a key moving average, warranting a closer look at key technical levels.
Detailed Technical Analysis:
1. Price Action: Breakout from Consolidation
After establishing a clear downtrend, PEP entered a period of consolidation, forming a well-defined trading range with a base near the $127 level. Today's session saw a decisive breakout above the upper boundary of this range. Such a move often indicates an exhaustion of selling pressure and an influx of demand. For this bullish thesis to gain further conviction, continued closes above this breakout zone would be constructive. The quality of this breakout would be further substantiated by an accompanying surge in trading volume, which signals significant market participation.
2. Momentum Analysis: RSI Indicating Renewed Buying Interest
Daily RSI: The RSI on the daily chart has surged to 62. A move above the 60 level typically suggests that bullish momentum is accelerating and is now in a strong position.
Weekly RSI: On the weekly timeframe, the RSI has advanced above 42. While still below the key 50 midline, this upward trajectory from oversold territory indicates a notable waning of long-term bearish momentum and may be an early sign of a strengthening trend.
3. Trend Analysis: Reclamation of the 50 EMA
The stock has successfully achieved a close above its 50-Day EMA. This moving average is a widely watched indicator for the medium-term trend. For much of the recent downtrend, the 50 EMA acted as dynamic resistance. By reclaiming this level, it suggests a potential shift where it may now serve as dynamic support during any subsequent pullbacks.
Potential Forward Outlook & Key Levels to Monitor:
Primary Area of Resistance: The $143 zone stands out as the first significant technical hurdle. This level could coincide with prior price structure and may attract initial profit-taking from short-term traders.
Secondary Area of Resistance: Should the momentum carry the price decisively through the primary resistance, the next major level of interest appears to be around $158 . This area represents a more significant structural resistance from the preceding downtrend.
Area for Risk Management: The zone below $127 is a critical area to monitor. This level represents the floor of the recent consolidation base. A sustained break below this level would potentially invalidate the bullish breakout hypothesis and suggest a continuation of the prior downtrend.
Disclaimer: The information provided in this technical analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. It is an interpretation of historical price data and technical indicators. Market dynamics can change, and past performance is not indicative of future results. All trading and investment activities involve substantial risk. Always conduct your own thorough due diligence and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Gold (XAUUSD) - Daily ICT Based Analysis🗓️ Date Range: IPDA Range (June 9 – July 4, 2025)
This chart is built using ICT methodology focusing on market structure, liquidity, PD arrays, and smart money price delivery.
🧠 Narrative Breakdown:
✅ IPDA Range is defined from June 9 to July 4 (20 trading days), providing the valid high and low to map premium/discount.
✅ A Market Structure Shift (MSS) confirms the intent to shift bearish after internal liquidity was swept.
✅ Price ran the Buy Side Liquidity (BSL) and rejected from the Daily Rejection Block (RB.D) and CISD + IPDA S.D., indicating institutional selling interest.
✅ The recent rally into the premium zone failed to close above BSL, showing weakness and potential continuation to the downside.
🎯 Key Points:
BSL Swept above internal range.
RB.D + CISD + IPDA S.D.: Price rejected from these confluences.
Current Bias: Bearish until 3,203.47 and 3,189.82 are met (internal sell-side liquidity).
Extended Target: 2,993.69 — external liquidity resting below the May low.
DOL marked inside the range suggests smart money is engineering price toward sell-side targets.
⚒️ Tools Used:
IPDA Range (20D)
MSS / BoS
Rejection Block (RB.D)
CISD + IFVG
PD Arrays (BSL, IDM, DOL)
📌 Summary:
This is a classic Sell Model within a defined IPDA range. Liquidity was swept, price rejected from premium, and now seeks inefficiencies + sell-side liquidity.
🧠 Wait for price action confirmations on lower timeframes (1H/15M) near PD arrays to engage.
Policy instability, DXY falls sharply, gold recoversPlan XAU day: 01 July 2025
Related Information:!!!
Gold Demand in China Expected to Rise Further
"In the first quarter of the year, China recorded a net export of 36 tons of gold to Hong Kong, reflecting a growing domestic demand for gold despite elevated prices. The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policy has likely been a significant contributing factor. As a result, gold has seen increased appeal among Chinese investors as both an investment asset and a safe-haven store of value. In contrast, demand for gold jewellery likely remained subdued due to persistently high prices."
"China aims to expand its exploitable gold reserves by 5 to 10 percent by 2027, potentially in response to rising domestic demand, according to a statement from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released early last week. The country also plans to boost gold production by more than 5 percent over the next two years. While China is already the world’s largest gold producer, it continues to rely on imports to satisfy internal demand.
personal opinion:!!!
Trump administration's policy instability caused the dollar to lose value and gold to fall sharply. Gold is on the way to recovery, returning to the price range of 3366.
Important price zone to consider : !!!
SELL point: 3366 zone
Sustainable trading to beat the market
Sudarshan Price ActionSudarshan Chemical Industries is currently trading around ₹1,256, having gained nearly 5% in the past week and over 6% in the last month. The stock has delivered a strong 10% return over six months and nearly 40% over the past year, reflecting robust momentum. Its 52-week high is ₹1,315, while the low stands at ₹796, placing the current price close to its yearly peak.
Valuation-wise, Sudarshan Chemical trades at a high price-to-earnings ratio above 80 and a price-to-book ratio above 8, signaling that the stock is richly valued compared to sector norms. Despite the premium valuation, the company has attracted positive sentiment, with most analysts maintaining a buy or hold stance, though the average target price is slightly below current levels, suggesting limited near-term upside.
Financially, the company has shown steady revenue growth and improved profitability in recent quarters, with net profit margins expanding from previous periods. However, promoter holding has decreased recently, and the company’s sales growth over the past year has been modest. The stock’s low beta indicates relatively lower volatility compared to the broader market.
In summary, Sudarshan Chemical Industries is exhibiting strong price momentum and positive investor sentiment but is trading at expensive valuations. While its recent financial performance has improved, the high valuation and reduced promoter holding may warrant caution for new investors.
Rounding Bottom Breakout – HUGE 8:1 R/R Setup!NSE: BLUESTARCO | Timeframe: Daily
🔥 Key Observation:
BlueStar is painting a textbook Rounding Bottom reversal pattern – a bullish signal indicating exhaustion of sellers and accumulation by smart money. Current price (1624.50) is coiling near the make-or-break resistance at 1656. A breakout here could ignite a massive rally!
🎯 Trade Plan: Precision Execution
⏱️ TRIGGER:
BUY ONLY ON CONFIRMED BREAKOUT ABOVE 1656
Must see: Strong green candle + Volume > 20% above average
NO BREAKOUT = NO TRADE. Period.
🧯 STOP LOSS (SL):
1521 (swing low below pattern – technical invalidation)
Risk: Just 8.1% from 1656 entry.
🎯 TARGETS:
TP1: 1744 (minor resistance – book 50% here)
TP2: 2100 (measured move target – 27%+ from breakout)
Reward/Risk: 8.4x (Rare asymmetry!)
📊 Why This Works:
Rounding Bottom: Classic reversal pattern after a downtrend – signals long-term trend shift.
Volume Confirmation: Breakout with rising volume = institutional participation.
SL Placement: Below the pattern’s trough (1521) invalidates the setup.
Target Rationale: 2100 aligns with the historical liquidity zone.
🚨 Critical Risk Controls
❗ NO BREAKOUT = NO TRADE.
❗ If breakout lacks volume, REJECT the trade.
❗ Partial exit at 1744: Trail SL to 1650 (breakeven) for remainder.
💡 Trader Psychology Edge
FOMO KILLS: Chasing before 1656 risks getting trapped in fakeouts.
Patience = Profit: Wait for the market’s confirmation – this is where pros separate from amateurs.
Trade Like a Sniper: One clean shot at 1656+volume, or walk away.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research. Charts are for educational purposes.
EQUITASBNK Price ActionEquitas Small Finance Bank is currently trading around ₹69, showing a strong gain of over 5% on July 1, 2025, and outperforming its sector in the short term. The stock has been volatile, with a day range between ₹67.50 and ₹71.00. Its 52-week high is ₹97.21, while the 52-week low stands at ₹52.52, placing the current price closer to the lower end of this range. The all-time high for the stock is ₹116.50.
Market capitalization is approximately ₹7,950 crore, and trading volumes remain robust, with recent daily volumes exceeding 6.5 million shares. This liquidity ensures ease of entry and exit for investors. Over the past year, the stock has declined about 30%, reflecting broader challenges in the sector and some company-specific headwinds.
Financially, Equitas Small Finance Bank has reported revenue of about ₹6,312 crore and a net profit of ₹147 crore. However, the company’s interest coverage ratio is low, indicating some pressure on its ability to service debt from operating profits. The stock is generally considered to have average financial strength but is recognized for its high growth trend, albeit currently priced at high valuations. The trailing twelve-month EPS has declined sharply year-on-year, and the stock is trading at a high price-to-earnings multiple relative to sector norms.
In summary, Equitas Small Finance Bank is showing short-term momentum and strong trading activity but remains well below its yearly highs. The company faces profitability and valuation challenges, and while growth prospects are present, investors should be mindful of the recent volatility and underlying financial pressures.
How to Trade ATH Stocks: Harness Explosive Trends with ADX !(BEL Case Study)
NSE:BEL (Daily) - Bull Flag at All-Time Highs
📈 Key Observations
ATH Breakout Confirmed:
Price smashed through ₹340.50 previos ATH, hitting a historic high of ₹393.50.
Consolidation in a tight bull flag (₹378.50–393.50) after a 28.97% surge – classic bullish continuation setup.
ADX: Your Trend Compass 🧭
ADX at 43.95 signals a powerful, directional trend (Readings >25 = strong trend; >40 = explosive momentum).
Ignore oscillator noise: Trends trump RSI/MACD in parabolic moves.
Pattern > Oscillators:
Bull Flag Priority: The pattern’s integrity (lower volume consolidation) outweighs short-term RSI(79)/MACD wobbles.
🚀 Trade Strategy: Trend-First Framework
✅ Entry & Targets
Trigger: Daily close above ₹393.50 (flag resistance).
Add: Retest of ₹393.50 as support.
Targets:
Short-term: ₹420 (5% above ATH)
Measured Move: ₹482 (ATH + pole height: 393.50 + 88.20)
⚔️ Stop-Loss
Conservative: ₹378.50 (flag low breach).
Aggressive: ₹385 (tight stop, honors consolidation structure).
📊 Position Sizing
Risk ≤1% capital per trade.
Reward/Risk Ratio: 4:1 (₹482 target vs. ₹378.50 stop).
💡 Why ADX Trumps RSI/MACD at ATHs
RSI/MACD are lagging in strong trends:
RSI overbought ≠ reversal – it’s fuel for momentum stocks.
MACD crosses often "whipsaw" in high-ADX environments (BEL’s ADX >40 invalidates bearish MACD signals).
ADX is proactive:
"Trends persist until ADX rolls below 30" – Focus on price, not oscillator fears.
🌐 Sector & Fundamental Tailwinds
Defense Sector Strength: India’s capex boost; BEL’s order book increasing.
Institutional Conviction: FIIs increasing stake.
🛡️ Risk Management Checklist
✅ Trade only on confirmed close above ATH.
✅ Use ADX >40 as a momentum green light.
✅ Trail stops at 20-DMA (₹365) once +10% profit.
Chart Markup:
Blue line: Bull flag Resistance at ₹393.50.
Red Line: Bull Flag Support ₹378.50
ADX(14) subchart with 40+ threshold highlighted.
💎 Final Thought: ATH breakouts are trend accelerators, not tops. BEL’s bull flag + ADX >40 frames a high-probability continuation play. Stick with the trend until ADX says otherwise.
Boost this idea if you’re tracking BEL’s breakout!
Follow for high-probability ATH trade setups.
⚠️ Disclaimer
"This is NOT financial advice. Trade at your own risk. Past performance ≠ future results. Always conduct independent research and consult a SEBI-registered advisor. The author holds no position in BEL at time of publication."
NIFTY Analysis – 01 july 2025 ,morning update at 9 am 1. Technical Pattern Identification:
You correctly mention that Nifty is in the last candle of a Bottleneck pattern on the daily chart. Bottleneck patterns often indicate volatility compression and possible breakout or sideways movement.
✅ 2. False Level (Advanced Concept):
identifying that Nifty is closed near the 23.6% false level, which is usually a retracement zone.
This suggests a sideways to cautious bullish tone early in the day — good observation!
✅ 3. Pre-market Range Prediction:
Opening near 25550 and testing 25580 makes logical sense with the range.
Upside possible till 25650 if sustained above 25580 – this reflects momentum breakout above resistance.
On the downside, breaking 25480 with volume signals a likely fall to 25446 and 25375 – these are support zones.
✅ 4. Trading Strategy Advised:
Advising to wait for pattern formation and use BOD (Buy on Dip) or SOR (Sell on Rise) strategies is a smart risk-managed approach, especially for scalping in a tight range market.
📊 Support & Resistance Levels Given:
Support: 25446, 25375, 25312
Resistance: 25582, 25650, 25700
These levels are well spaced and offer a clear intraday roadmap.
Institutional Option Trading Institutional Option Trading
Institutional option trading involves using options as part of sophisticated strategies to hedge risk, enhance returns, or speculate.
Objectives of Institutional Option Trading
Hedging: Protecting large portfolios against market downturns.
Income Generation: Selling options to collect premiums.
Speculation: Taking directional bets with options.
Arbitrage: Exploiting price inefficiencies across markets.
Common Institutional Option Strategies
Covered Call Writing: Selling call options against stock holdings to generate income.
Protective Puts: Buying puts to insure portfolios against downside risk.
Spreads (Vertical, Horizontal, Diagonal): Limiting risk while aiming for a defined profit range.
Straddles and Strangles: Betting on volatility, regardless of market direction.
Iron Condors: Selling out-of-the-money calls and puts to profit from low volatility.
Ambuja Cements - Levels to watchAs market mood is choppy and result season is approaching soon
Its important to note the upcoming important levels for Ambuja Cements
Recently the stock gave a good rally but is now approaching towards its first strong resistance level of 590
Post that it has 2 more strong upside resistance at 610 and 635
Downside right now the nearest and strongest support levels are at 530 - 515 - 485
Take confirmation bias from lower Tf before entering any trade & play accordingly
“Wait for Retest” – The Hardest Thing for Impatient Traders!Hello Traders!
How many times have you seen a perfect breakout… jumped in instantly… and then watched price pull back, hit your stop-loss, and reverse back up? You’re not alone. “Waiting for the retest” is one of the most powerful but emotionally difficult habits to build in trading — especially for impatient traders. Let’s break down why it matters and how to use it with discipline.
Why Retests Matter in Breakout Trading
Confirmation of Breakout Strength: A breakout followed by a retest shows the level is truly flipping from resistance to support (or vice versa), validating the move.
Stops Get Triggered on Fakeouts: Impulsive entries during breakout candles often lead to stop-hunting or false breakouts.
Better Risk-Reward Ratio: Waiting for the retest often gives you a tighter stop-loss and bigger upside, improving your overall risk-to-reward.
Why It’s Hard for Traders to Wait
Fear of Missing Out (FOMO): Traders fear they’ll miss the entire move if they don’t jump in on the breakout candle.
Lack of Patience or Planning: Without a pre-defined rule or system, emotions take over and lead to impulsive entries.
Overtrading Mindset: Many traders feel the need to “do something” instead of letting the setup come to them.
Rahul’s Tip
Let the market prove itself before you act. If the retest doesn’t happen, it wasn’t your trade. But if it does, it’s confirmation. That’s when you strike with confidence.
How to Master Retest Trading
Set Alerts at Key Zones: Use trading platforms to alert you when price comes back to retest the breakout or breakdown level.
Use Candlestick Confirmation: Look for bullish reversal candles at retest zones (like bullish engulfing, hammer, etc.) before entering.
Combine with Volume & Structure: Confirm that volume supports the breakout and retest isn't a weak bounce.
Conclusion
“Waiting for the retest” is about discipline, not prediction. Master this skill, and you’ll enter with more clarity, better risk control, and higher probability trades. Don’t let impulse rob you of smart setups. Be patient — your best entries will wait for you.
Have you been caught by a fake breakout recently? Share your experience in the comments and let’s grow together!
BANKINDIA Price action analysisBased on the technical analysis of Bank of India (BANKINDIA), the stock is currently showing bearish signals with some mixed indicators:
## Price and Performance
The current stock price is ₹94.80, up 0.73% from the previous close of ₹94.12 . However, the stock has been on a downward trend in recent months:
- 1-month return: -4.27%
- 3-month return: -14.00%
- 1-year return: -29.41%
## Technical Indicators
- **Moving Averages**: All major moving averages (5, 10, 20, 50, 100, and 200 DMA) are showing bearish signals, with the current price below all of them .
- **RSI**: The stock's RSI is not explicitly provided, but the overall technical analysis suggests a bearish sentiment.
- **Fibonacci Levels**: Key retracement levels for the recent downtrend (Dec 6, 2024 to Jan 13, 2025) are:
- 23.6%: ₹97.24
- 38.2%: ₹101.68
- 50%: ₹105.28
- 61.8%: ₹108.87
## Support and Resistance
- **Support levels**: ₹93.66 (daily), ₹94.16 (S1 Fibonacci)
- **Resistance levels**: ₹96.28 (daily), ₹96.78 (R1 Fibonacci)
## Volume Analysis
The stock's trading volume is not explicitly mentioned in the search results, but it's an important factor to consider for confirming trend strength.
## Market Sentiment
- The stock is currently rated as "Bearish" for short-term investors and "Very Bearish" for long-term investors .
- Out of 5 analysts, 3 recommend a "Buy," 1 suggests "Hold," and 1 advises "Sell" .
## Key Metrics
- P/E Ratio: 5.4
- P/B Ratio: 0.64
- Dividend Yield: 2.94%
- Market Cap: ₹43,323 Crores
## Overall Outlook
The BANKINDIA stock is currently in a bearish trend, with all major moving averages pointing downwards. However, there are some potential support levels nearby that traders should watch. The stock's valuation metrics (low P/E and P/B ratios) suggest it might be undervalued, but the persistent downtrend indicates caution is warranted. Investors should closely monitor key support and resistance levels for potential trend reversals or continuations before making trading decisions.
RBL bank price actionRBL Bank's stock price has shown notable activity recently, influenced by both technical and fundamental factors. Below is a detailed analysis:
## **Current Price Action**
- **Latest Price**: RBL Bank's shares rose by 4.86% on March 24, 2025, reaching ₹176.40, breaking out of a consolidation range of ₹150–170
- **Technical Indicators**: The stock's breakout is supported by robust trading volumes and a daily RSI above 60, indicating bullish momentum
## **Fundamental Analysis**
- **Valuation Metrics**:
- P/E Ratio: 10.28 (lower than the sector average of 19.47), indicating undervaluation
- P/B Ratio: 0.69, suggesting the stock is trading at a discount compared to its book value
- **Intrinsic Value**: Estimated at ₹267.23, reflecting significant upside potential from the current price
## **Recent Financial Performance**
- **Q3 FY25 Results**:
- Revenue grew by 16% YoY to ₹4,610 crore
- Net profit declined sharply by 80.7% YoY due to higher provisions for NPAs in microfinance and credit card portfolios.
- Gross NPA ratio improved marginally to 2.92%, while net NPA reduced to 0.53%, indicating mixed asset quality trends
## **Long-Term Outlook**
- Despite short-term challenges in profitability, RBL Bank's fundamentals remain strong, with healthy loan growth (13% YoY) and improving operational efficiency. Analysts suggest it may be suitable for long-term investment due to undervaluation and expected recovery in profitability metrics.
Investors should monitor RBL Bank's asset quality trends and earnings growth closely while considering its low valuation as an attractive entry point for medium to long-term gains.
RAYMONDLSL Price actionRaymond Lifestyle Ltd (RAYMONDLSL) is currently trading in the range of ₹1,088 to ₹1,179 as of June 26, 2025, showing a strong rebound in the last few days after a prolonged period of decline. Over the past year, the stock has been highly volatile, reaching a 52-week high of ₹3,100 and hitting a low of ₹911.35 in May 2025. The share price has dropped significantly, with a decline of about 64% over the last year and nearly 48% over the last six months.
Despite this correction, the stock has recently shown some positive momentum, climbing over 11% in the past week and about 8% in a single session. Its market capitalization is around ₹7,185 crore. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is low at 2.72, and the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is also relatively modest, indicating the stock may now be trading at more reasonable valuations compared to its recent past.
Raymond Lifestyle has demonstrated exceptional revenue growth, with annual growth far outpacing its three-year compound annual growth rate. However, the company has also taken on new debt for the first time in five years, which could impact its financial flexibility going forward. Technical signals, such as a recent 50-day moving average crossover, suggest that there could be further short-term upside, as this pattern has historically led to gains in the following month.
Overall, Raymond Lifestyle Ltd is recovering from a sharp correction and is currently showing signs of short-term strength. The company’s fundamentals reflect strong revenue growth but also new debt obligations. Investors should be aware of the stock’s high volatility and recent history before making decisions, as the long-term trend remains cautious despite recent gains.
BAJAJINDEF Price ActionBajaj Indef (BAJAJINDEF) has experienced a period of high volatility and rapid price movement in June 2025. After a sharp rally from around ₹225 in late May to a peak near ₹478.90 by mid-June, the stock has since corrected and is now trading in the ₹400–₹420 range. This recent surge was accompanied by significant spikes in trading volume, indicating heightened market interest and participation.
The stock’s price action shows a pattern of large daily swings, with both double-digit percentage gains and losses within short intervals. This suggests speculative activity and possibly profit-booking after the strong rally. The valuation of the stock has shifted from not qualifying to being considered very expensive, reflecting the sharp run-up in price relative to its fundamentals.
Short-term momentum appears to have cooled, with the stock pulling back from its highs and now consolidating. Investors should be cautious, as the recent volatility and elevated valuation may lead to further price fluctuations. The underlying trend remains positive compared to levels a month ago, but the risk of sharp corrections is high given the stock’s recent behavior.
NIFTY Analysis – 30 june 2025 ,evening update ,Accuracy: 100%Key Levels I Shared in the Morning vs Market Reaction:
✅ 1. Resistance Levels – 25700, 25789, 25858:
I had clearly mentioned that 25700 and 25789 are strong resistance levels. The market halted and reversed exactly from that zone.
🔸 Resistance worked perfectly.
🔹 Accuracy: 100%
✅ 2. Sideways Zone – Between 25600 to 25670:
I had marked this zone as sideways, and the market did consolidate there before falling.
🔸 This zone also played out accurately.
🔹 Accuracy: 95%
✅ 3. Breakout Levels – Above 25700 or Below 25587:
I mentioned: “Wait for a clear breakout above 25700 or below 25587 with volume confirmation.”
🔸 The market broke below 25587 and moved down.
🔹 Accuracy: 90–95%
✅ 4. Support Levels – 25545, 25480, 25412:
I had identified these support zones. The market is currently holding between 25480 and 25412, respecting the support.
🔸 Support levels worked well.
🔹 Accuracy: 95%
✅ 5. "No Major Correction Expected":
I had indicated that no major correction is expected. The market dipped but didn’t panic or crash — the drop was limited.
🔹 Accuracy: 85%
📊 Overall Accuracy of My Analysis:
✅ Approximately 93–95% Accurate