Beyond Technical Analysis
Bank Nifty Market Structure & Trade Plan - 24 July 2025Bank Nifty Analysis
Timeframes used: 4H, 1H, 15min
Current Price: 57,191
Market Context:
Price has shown a strong bounce from the demand zone at 56,150–56,250.
Now approaching a critical supply zone at 57,300–57,430 where price has repeatedly rejected in the past.
On higher timeframes, price remains in a range-bound structure, forming lower highs and equal lows, indicating indecision.
Momentum is bullish short term but testing a strong ceiling.
Market Structure (4H + 1H ) :
Lower Highs forming since 2nd July (57,750 → 57,500 → now 57,300 area).
Higher Lows recently formed with sharp bounce from 56,150.
Price is moving in a broad consolidation zone between 56,150 and 57,430.
Compression structure developing: approaching apex of a wedge.
Likely to see resolution (breakout or breakdown) within next few sessions.
Key Zones:
Supply (Resistance) Zones:
🔴 57,300–57,430 (strong rejection zone visible on all timeframes)
🔴 57,750 (previous high of the structure)
Demand (Support) Zones:
🟢 56,150–56,250 (clean bounce, previous reaction zone)
🟢 55,800 (structure break base – last major swing low)
No Trade Zone:
Between 57,200 and 57,320 → inside resistance zone, high risk of choppy reactions
Trade Plan:
Scenario 1 – Sell on Rally (if price reacts at resistance):
Look for 15min bearish engulfing or fakeout wick rejection in the 57,300–57,430 zone
Entry: Near 57,350
Stoploss: Above 57,450
Target: 57,000 → 56,800 → 56,250
Scenario 2 – Breakout Buy:
If price closes and sustains above 57,450 on 15min with volume or retest
Entry: 57,460 (on breakout or retest)
Stoploss: Below 57,300
Target: 57,750 → 57,900
Nifty 50 Market Structure & Trade Plan - 24 July 2025Nifty 50 Analysis
Timeframes used: 4H, 1H, 15min
Current Price: 25,209
NIFTY 50 Market Structure – 4H & 1H
4-Hour Timeframe :
Price bounced strongly from Demand Zone: 24,880–24,920.
Short-term bullish BOS (Break of Structure) confirmed.
Now approaching Supply Zone: 25,150–25,200.
⚠️ Overall structure: Bullish retracement inside a broader range.
1-Hour Timeframe :
Bullish swing continuation from 24,900 zone.
Formed consecutive higher highs & higher lows.
Price losing momentum near 25,150.
Currently testing previous swing high, potential liquidity sweep setup.
Key inflection level: 25,170–25,200 zone.
Market Context:
Price has bounced sharply from the demand zone at 24,880–24,920, showing strong bullish momentum.
It is now entering the key supply zone at 25,240–25,280, which has previously acted as a strong resistance zone.
Structure indicates a short-term bullish reversal, but price is now reaching overextended territory within a broader sideways range.
Key Zones:
Immediate Resistance (Supply):
🔴 25,240–25,280
🔴 25,310–25,360 (extension zone if breakout sustains)
Immediate Support (Demand):
🟢 24,880–24,920
🟢 24,820 (emergency support in case of deeper pullback)
No Trade Zone:
25,200–25,240 – Midway chop area where entries have poor R:R
24,950–25,000 – Midway inside range with low conviction
Trade Plan:
Scenario 1 – Sell on Rally (preferred bias):
If price shows rejection within 25,240–25,280 zone on lower timeframes (15min bearish engulfing, pin bar, or supply absorption failure):
Entry: Near 25,260
Stop Loss (SL): Above 25,310
Target: 25,120 → 24,950
Scenario 2 – Breakout Buy:
If price breaks and sustains above 25,310 on strong volume or successful retest:
Entry: On retest near 25,280–25,300
Stop Loss (SL): Below 25,220
Target: 25,400 → 25,480
Macro + Rate-Sensitive Asset Trading✅ What is Macro + Rate-Sensitive Asset Trading?
In basic terms:
Macro Trading is trading based on big picture economic trends — like inflation, interest rates, GDP growth, central bank policies, and geopolitical risks.
Rate-Sensitive Asset Trading focuses on those assets that react strongly when interest rates change, like:
Government bonds
Bank stocks
Real estate investment trusts (REITs)
Gold
Growth tech stocks
Commodities
Currency pairs (like USD/INR, EUR/USD)
Together, macro and rate-sensitive asset trading means analyzing global and national economic data to predict movements in specific assets and sectors.
🧠 Why is This So Important?
Because big players (FII, DII, Hedge Funds) move billions of dollars based on these macro themes.
Imagine this:
If inflation spikes → Central bank may raise interest rates
If rates go up → Bond yields rise → Bank profits rise
At the same time → Real estate slows down, gold may fall, tech stocks may suffer
And the currency (like USD or INR) may strengthen or weaken
As a trader, understanding these domino effects lets you ride big, high-conviction trades that can last for days, weeks, or even months.
🏛️ Who Controls Interest Rates?
Central banks — like the Federal Reserve (USA) or RBI (India) — adjust interest rates to control inflation and support economic growth.
Rate Hike = Borrowing becomes expensive = Slows the economy
Rate Cut = Borrowing becomes cheaper = Boosts growth
Market participants react even to expectations of these changes.
So, successful traders often read between the lines of central bank speeches, economic releases, and policy statements.
🧮 Examples of Rate-Sensitive Assets
Let’s break them down one by one:
1. Banking Stocks (HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, SBI, Axis)
Banks make more profit when interest rates are high.
They charge more on loans and earn better margins.
So, when the RBI hikes rates, banking stocks usually go up.
📈 Trade Idea: Buy banking stocks on rate hike expectations, especially when inflation is rising.
2. Bonds and Bond Yields
Bond prices move inversely to interest rates.
When rates go up, bond prices go down, and yields go up.
Traders use this to position in debt instruments or short-duration bonds.
📉 Trade Idea: Short long-duration bonds when interest rates are expected to rise.
3. Gold and Silver
Gold is a non-interest-bearing asset.
When rates rise, bonds become more attractive → People shift from gold to fixed income → Gold falls
But during high inflation or crisis, gold can also rise as a hedge.
⚖️ Trade Idea: If real interest rates (adjusted for inflation) rise → Sell gold. If inflation is rising faster than rates → Buy gold.
4. Tech and Growth Stocks (Rate-Sensitive Equities)
High-growth companies (like tech startups or innovation companies) often rely on borrowing.
Rising interest rates increase their cost of capital.
This can compress future profits, and stock prices fall.
📉 Trade Idea: Avoid high-P/E or growth stocks during rising rate cycles. Favor value or dividend-paying stocks.
5. Real Estate / REITs
Real estate is interest-rate sensitive because home loans, EMIs, and mortgages get costlier.
When rates rise, property demand slows, and REITs (real estate investment trusts) fall.
📉 Trade Idea: Short REITs or reduce allocation during rate hike cycles.
6. Currency Pairs (Forex)
When a country hikes rates, its currency becomes stronger because it offers better returns to foreign investors.
For example, if the US Fed raises rates, the USD strengthens against INR, EUR, JPY, etc.
📈 Trade Idea: Go long on USD/INR or USD/JPY when Fed is expected to hike.
📌 How Traders Use This Information (Practical Steps)
Step 1: Develop a Macro View
Ask: Is the global economy growing or slowing?
Is inflation rising or under control?
What are central banks signaling?
Step 2: Find Asset Classes That React
If inflation rising → Buy banks, sell bonds and gold
If growth slowing → Buy bonds, sell cyclicals, maybe gold
Step 3: Time Your Entry with Technicals
Use charts (e.g., TradingView) to find good levels to enter.
Look for breakout or pullback entries.
Step 4: Manage Risk
Macro trades can move fast and big.
Always use stop losses and size your position smartly.
🧠 Pro Tips From Institutional Traders
Macro moves are slow but deep.
These trades often play out over days or weeks. Be patient.
Market moves on expectations, not news.
Price reacts before the news comes out. Get in early.
Central banks don’t always do what they say.
Learn to interpret tone, not just statements.
Watch global flows.
US rate hikes can affect Indian markets. Always zoom out.
Be aware of cycles.
Every asset class has cycles. Learn when each one outperforms.
⚠️ Risks of Macro and Rate-Sensitive Trading
Data surprises can flip the market instantly
Correlations can break (e.g., gold going up with rates)
Over-trading on news can lead to losses
Requires understanding of multiple asset classes
Long holding periods may tie up capital
📈 Real-Life Example: RBI Hike Cycle in India
Let’s say inflation in India is rising fast — food prices, fuel, etc.
RBI responds by:
Raising repo rates from 6.5% to 7.0%
Goal: Slow down spending and borrowing
What happens?
Banks rally → Nifty Bank goes up
Bonds fall → 10-year yield rises
Real estate cools off
Gold weakens if INR strengthens
Tech stocks underperform
A smart trader could:
Go long on Bank Nifty Futures
Short REITs or real estate stocks
Exit tech or auto sector temporarily
This is a textbook example of macro + rate-sensitive trading in action.
📚 Final Thoughts: Is This For You?
Macro trading with rate-sensitive assets is not for absolute beginners, but it is a powerful approach for intermediate and advanced traders.
✅ Advantages:
Big moves with logic behind them
Insight into how institutions think
Ability to diversify across assets
ABBOTINDIA Price Action## Current Price and Recent Movements
ABBOTINDIA is currently trading around ₹34,150–₹34,200, with recent price action showing stability near all-time highs. Over the last year, the stock has risen more than 22%, maintaining strong uptrend momentum. Its 52-week range is ₹25,325 to ₹37,000, reflecting both solid growth and periodic volatility within the healthcare sector.
## Performance and Returns
- **Short-term:** The price has experienced mild negative movement in the latest week but climbed nearly 9% over the last month.
- **Medium-term:** Returns for the last six months stand at roughly 23%, with a 10% advance over the previous quarter.
- **Long-term:** Returns over three years have exceeded 70%, and five-year returns are above 125%, indicating sustained capital appreciation.
## Valuation and Financials
- The stock trades at an elevated price-to-earnings ratio above 51, signaling significant growth expectations already priced in.
- Price-to-book is around 17, considerably higher than the sector average, emphasizing a premium valuation.
- Return on equity remains robust, typically above 35% over recent years, accompanied by consistent increases in earnings per share.
- Dividend yield is attractive at about 1.4%, and the company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, often exceeding 70%.
## Business Strengths
- ABBOTINDIA is almost debt-free, featuring strong operational efficiency and high profitability margins.
- Profit growth has averaged 19% CAGR over the last five years, despite sales growth being more modest.
- The company regularly ranks within the top tier of the healthcare sector for both market capitalization and operational performance.
## Risks and Weaknesses
- At current levels, the stock is considered overvalued relative to its book, earnings, and sector peers.
- Sales growth, while steady, has lagged behind profit expansion, suggesting improvements are driven by margins rather than revenue acceleration.
- The share is nearly 1.8 times as volatile as the broader Nifty index, making it less suitable for risk-averse investors.
## Outlook
ABBOTINDIA continues to deliver on profitability and efficiency, with long-term technical and fundamental momentum strongly intact. Caution is warranted on valuation, as the premium is substantial, but the business fundamentals remain solid. Investors should monitor for sustained sales growth to support ongoing strength in price.
Option TradingWhat Is an Option?
An option is a financial contract that gives the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset at a specific price (called the strike price) on or before a specific date (called the expiry date).
There are two main types of options:
Call Option – Gives the right to BUY the underlying asset.
Put Option – Gives the right to SELL the underlying asset.
🔹 Example:
If you buy a Call Option on Reliance with a strike price of ₹2,500 and the stock goes to ₹2,600, you can buy it at ₹2,500 and sell it at market for ₹2,600 – making a profit.
Basic Terminologies in Option Trading
Strike Price: The fixed price at which the option holder can buy or sell the asset.
Premium: The price paid to buy the option contract.
Expiry Date: The last date on which the option can be exercised.
Lot Size: The fixed quantity of the underlying asset in one options contract.
ITM/ATM/OTM (Moneyness):
In the Money (ITM): Option has intrinsic value.
At the Money (ATM): Strike price = current market price.
Out of the Money (OTM): Option has no intrinsic value yet.
Core Concepts of Option Trading
1. Option Buying vs Option Selling
Option Buyers pay a premium and have limited risk but unlimited profit potential.
Option Sellers (Writers) receive the premium but take on potentially higher risk.
2. Time Decay (Theta)
Options lose value as they approach expiry. This is called time decay. It works against buyers and in favor of sellers. Therefore, option sellers benefit more from time decay.
3. Volatility (Vega)
Volatility affects the premium of options. Higher expected volatility leads to higher premiums. Traders often use Implied Volatility (IV) and Historical Volatility (HV) to make trading decisions.
4. Option Greeks
Advanced traders use Greeks to measure different risks in an option:
Delta: Sensitivity to price change.
Gamma: Change in Delta with price movement.
Theta: Impact of time decay.
Vega: Impact of volatility changes.
Rho: Impact of interest rate changes.
Understanding Greeks is crucial for adjusting and managing option positions.
Popular Option Strategies
Once a trader understands calls and puts, they can use strategies combining multiple options:
✅ Single-Leg Strategies (Basic)
Buying Call or Put: Speculative strategy to profit from movement in one direction.
Selling Call or Put: Used to earn premium with a view that the market will stay flat or move in the opposite direction.
✅ Multi-Leg Strategies (Advanced)
Bull Call Spread: Buy one call and sell another at a higher strike. Used in moderately bullish outlook.
Bear Put Spread: Buy one put and sell another at a lower strike. Used in moderately bearish outlook.
Straddle: Buy a call and a put at the same strike and expiry. Used when expecting a big move, but unsure of the direction.
Iron Condor: Four-option strategy used in sideways markets to earn limited profits with limited risk.
Risk Management in Option Trading
Because options involve leverage, managing risk is crucial. Key practices include:
Position sizing: Only use a small portion of capital per trade.
Stop-loss and Target levels: Always have a predefined exit plan.
Avoid overtrading: Overuse of leverage leads to quick losses.
Understand margin requirements: Especially important for sellers.
Tools Used in Option Trading
Traders use various tools to analyze the market:
Option Chain Analysis: Shows available strike prices, premiums, and Open Interest (OI).
OI Data: High OI at certain strikes indicates strong support/resistance.
IV Chart: Helps spot overbought or oversold options.
Payoff Diagrams: Visual representation of potential profit or loss.
Why Trade Options?
Advantages:
Lower capital requirement
Multiple strategies in all market conditions
Potential for high returns
Useful for hedging equity positions
Disadvantages:
Complex for beginners
Time decay works against buyers
Can incur large losses if misused (especially in option selling)
Conclusion
Option trading offers a dynamic and powerful way to engage with the stock market. It provides flexibility, leverage, and a range of strategies to suit any market condition — bullish, bearish, or neutral. However, it's not a shortcut to riches. Success in option trading demands proper knowledge, discipline, and strategy. Whether you're a beginner or an advanced trader, continuously learning and practicing is key. Start small, understand the risk, and build a system that suits your trading psychology and capital.
If you master the fundamentals — Calls, Puts, Greeks, Time Decay, Volatility, and Risk Management — you can take your trading to the next level and even venture into the world of institutional-style trading strategies.
SHORT OPPORTUNITY ON GBPJPYWe can short GBPJPY if it comes to my mark black zone as when market comes here it will comes with buyers liquidity available at downside so as soon as we can see market has broke trendline on 15min time frame and form some "M" type structure in lower time frame that can be 5min we can go for a short side scalp.
LONG OPPORTUNITY ON EURUSDThere is a buying opportunity available on eurusd as the market structure is bullish for now but there is two probability available for long which I have mark the levels with black zone if Market comes to the second black zone then that would be a good buy as there is also the fib 61.8% level note only trade on zone when the trendline is break+retest here retest is imp while retesting ensure that market must failed to break the previous low and enter on a buying green healthy candle.
EUR/USD Elliott Wave Update –Classic Wave 5 Breakout Opportunity
This chart of the EUR/USD pair shows a well-structured Elliott Wave impulse pattern unfolding on the 4-hour timeframe. The price action is currently progressing in the final Wave (5) of the impulse cycle, which typically represents the last bullish leg before a larger correction begins.
Wave (1): The initial move up from the bottom (early May), showing a clean 5-wave internal structure.
Wave (2): A healthy retracement after Wave 1, forming a base for further upside.
Wave (3): The strongest and steepest rally, as expected in Elliott theory. It broke past previous highs and extended sharply.
Wave (4): A corrective phase that formed a falling wedge pattern — typically a bullish continuation pattern.
Wave (5): Currently in progress. The wedge has broken to the upside, confirming the potential start of Wave 5.
Target 1 (T1): 1.18306
Target 2 (T2): 1.19012
Stop Loss (SL): 1.16600
After a strong uptrend, the market went sideways in a wedge pattern (a typical wave 4 behavior). It has now broken out, signaling the start of the final wave 5 move. This is often a strong and sharp push. Since the breakout is clean and the Elliott wave count aligns well, this creates a favorable long opportunity.
Asian Paint feels under appreciated.Chart Aspect
The price has been moving around in a range of more than 20% and have tested both the bottom and top 3 times.
Now the price has moved below this range.
Expecting the price to touch the upper range.
Financial Aspect
The first eye catcher is that that the price to book was at its lowest in over 10 years.
This might have been caused by the decline in the net profit of the company. Even though its 3X the net profit of its closest rival.
I have notices that the material & manufacturing cost for the paint is the lowest compared to the nearest competition. This might be coz of their continued effort for backward integration.
Their investment in P&M and Building is increasing at a exponential pace compared to there peers. This will help them pump out more product there by reducing cost and increasing the topline and margin.
Their debt is at par with their nearest competition, in debt-to-equity terms.
DIIs have increased their stakes in the company to its highest level in tis history and public are at the lowest level. You know what that means ;)
Paytm at ₹1,051: Breakout Confirmed — But What’s Next?Paytm (One 97 Communications) has officially crossed the ₹1,050 resistance zone — a key psychological and technical level. With rising volumes, a powerful uptrend, and its first-ever positive operating cash flow, the question is:
Is this the beginning of a long-term turnaround, or another momentum trade nearing exhaustion?
Let’s break it down.
📊 Shareholding Breakdown (as of June 2025)
Promoters: 0% — no founder holding
FIIs: 54.87% — strong institutional presence
DIIs: 15.83%
Public: 12.22%
🔍 Insight: The company is fully institutionally driven. No promoter skin in the game means short-term thinking could dominate unless core numbers improve consistently.
📉 Financial Performance (FY25 vs FY24)
Metric FY25 FY24 Change
Revenue ₹6,900 Cr ₹9,978 Cr 🔻 -30%
Net Loss ₹664 Cr ₹1,422 Cr ✅ Improved
Operating Profit ₹44 Cr ₹-907 Cr ✅ Positive
Operating Cash Flow ₹651 Cr Negative ✅ First time positive
⚠️ Note: The revenue decline was largely driven by the RBI’s clampdown on Paytm Payments Bank, impacting GMV and merchant payments. Despite this, cost control and business model optimization have narrowed losses.
🌐 Market Landscape
India’s digital payments market is projected to reach $156B by 2025, and $990B by 2032, growing at ~30% CAGR
Paytm remains a leader in merchant QR and Soundbox deployments
Competing with PhonePe, Google Pay, and BharatPe, but continues to differentiate with offline innovation and embedded lending
🔮 Analysts' Outlook:
Bernstein sees 23% upside from current levels
Most houses expect break-even by FY26, profit in FY27
📈 Technical Analysis – Breakout in Motion
Weekly & Monthly Chart Highlights:
✅ Breakout above ₹1,050 confirms strength
✅ Sustained higher highs & higher lows structure
✅ Volume increasing alongside price — a strong technical signal
✅ Stock trading well above 200 EMA
Level Value
CMP ₹1,051.05
Support ₹950–980
Resistance ₹1,120–1,180 (next target zone)
RSI 64 (healthy, not overbought)
📍 If the stock sustains above ₹1,050 with strong volume, it may move swiftly toward ₹1,120+.
📉 If it dips below ₹980 again, a retest of the trendline support may follow — keep trailing your stop losses.
💬 Real Talk: Can You Earn 2–5% Per Month?
Let’s be honest. 2–5% monthly returns aren’t impossible — but they’re not handed out either.
You’ll need:
✅ The right mindset
✅ Strong risk management
✅ Patience, not panic
✅ Real learning, not shortcuts
This is not a get-rich-quick scheme.
This is a get-disciplined-slowly-and-grow-consistently path.
Time invested in learning > Money invested too early.
📝 Final Take
Paytm has broken a critical resistance. The fundamentals are catching up slowly. It's still not a “buy and forget” stock — but it’s now a "watch and ride with caution" setup.
🔁 Traders: Tight trailing stop. Momentum is your friend, not your excuse.
🧠 Investors: Wait for consistent profitability or accumulate slowly with awareness of risks.
Would you chase this breakout — or wait for confirmation above ₹1,120?
📬 Want More?
👉 Follow me here for honest, data-driven stock breakdowns
📩 Subscribe to my free newsletter — every week I share research, setups, and mindset hacks for traders & investors alike.
Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only. Please consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Market Structure & Plan – 23 July 2025HTF (4H) Structure
Trend: Still in a broad range; no clear higher high or lower low sequence.
Supply Zone: 57,250 – 57,400 (respected multiple times with strong rejections).
Demand Zone: 56,150 – 56,300 (held strongly on July 18–19 and July 22).
📌 Price got rejected cleanly from the 57,300+ supply zone and is now heading lower. Current structure shows mid-range weakness with supply dominance.
MTF (1H) View
Recent Reaction: Price formed a near double-top around 57,300, followed by a sharp bearish candle.
Trend Bias: Intraday lower high is confirmed; bears gained control at resistance.
Key Observation: No bullish candle formation yet to suggest reversal. Price is stair-stepping lower.
📌 Bearish engulfing at supply zone indicates strong rejection and short-term downside bias.
STF (15-min) Setup
Price Flow: Intraday supply zones respected (approx. 57,000–57,050).
Structure: Lower highs and lower lows forming; price losing steam post-supply.
No Demand Formed Yet: Minor pauses, but no confirmed demand zone until 56,200 area.
📌 Momentum shifted toward downside intraday. Price is retracing from highs without breaking any previous swing high.
Plan for July 23 (Tomorrow)
🟢 Buy Trade Plan (Only if demand tested):
Entry: Near 56,200–56,300 (retest of 4H demand)
SL: Below 56,100
Target 1: 56,750 (intraday resistance)
Target 2: 57,000 (mid supply)
Confirmation: Bullish engulfing or FVG reaction in 15min near demand.
💡 Buy only at HTF demand with reversal structure. Avoid chasing the move in between.
🔴 Sell Trade Plan (High Probability):
Entry: On rejection around 56,900–57,000 zone or bearish FVG formation
SL: Above 57,050
Target 1: 56,600
Target 2: 56,300
Most likely scenario: Price continues sliding down toward 56,300 demand area.
Market Structure & Plan – 23 July 2025NIFTY Analysis Summary (as of July 22 Close @ 25,065)
Key Supply Zones (Resistance)
25,145 – 25,200 (1H & 15min confluence) – acted as resistance multiple times
25,260 – 25,320 (4H zone) – remains untested supply from earlier breakdown
Key Demand Zones (Support)
24,880 – 24,930 – strong bullish reaction candle; sharp reversal on 21st July
24,414 – HTF demand, major structural support zone (last line of defense)
Price Structure
Price is ranging between 25,200 resistance and 24,900 support
Today’s candle was indecisive with wicks on both ends
No clear momentum in either direction after Friday’s bounce
Plan for Tomorrow (July 23
🟥 Scenario A: Price opens flat or slightly up and enters 25,145–25,200 zone
⚠️ Avoid longs into supply
🔽 Look for reversal patterns (pin bar / bearish engulfing on 15min) for short entries
🎯 Target 1: 25,000
🎯 Target 2: 24,920
🔐 SL: Above 25,220 (buffer above zone)
🟩 Scenario B: Price dips to 24,900–24,930 zone
✅ Look for long entries only on strong rejection (bullish engulfing/inverted hammer)
🎯 Target 1: 25,060
🎯 Target 2: 25,200
🔐 SL: Below 24,870
❌ Avoid mid-range trades between 25,000–25,080 unless:
Strong volume breakout above 25,200 (possible breakout entry)
Or price shows ICT-style liquidity sweep into support (15min confirmation)
🎯 Bias for the Day:
Neutral-to-Slightly Bearish
Price is stuck in a supply zone after a minor pullback rally; unless it breaks 25,200 with conviction, sell-on-rise is preferred.
FED CHAIR POWELL SPEECH EURUSD 15 ANALYSISTodays fed chair speech our target for eurusd is marked on the chart as a buyside liquidity , as we are bullish in eurusd and we have buyside liquidity we are targeting that it may go lower to take some liquidity and then go for the buyside....keep following me for more updates.
Bank Nifty and Nifty50 Scalping TechniquesWhat is Scalping in Index Trading?
Scalping is a high-frequency intraday trading style where a trader looks to capture small price movements multiple times throughout the day. In indices like Nifty50 and Bank Nifty, where price movement is fast and often sharp, scalping is a preferred strategy for many traders.
Scalpers don't aim to catch a ₹100 move. Even ₹20–₹30 on a Bank Nifty option, done 3–4 times a day with volume and discipline, can generate consistent returns.
Why Nifty50 & Bank Nifty for Scalping?
High Liquidity: Tight bid-ask spreads make it easier to enter and exit quickly.
Option Volatility: Options on these indices give quick 5–10% moves in minutes.
Trend & Momentum Friendly: These indices often move in clean intraday trends, giving plenty of scalping chances.
Institutional Interest: Nifty and Bank Nifty are tracked by institutions, so technical levels work well.
Tools Every Scalper Must Use
Before we dive into strategies, make sure you have these ready:
5-Minute / 3-Minute Candlestick Chart
VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price)
CPR (Central Pivot Range)
Price Action Levels (Previous Day High/Low, Opening Range)
Option Chain Analysis (for OI build-up)
Volume & Momentum Indicators (e.g., RSI, MACD)
Top Scalping Techniques for Nifty & Bank Nifty
1. VWAP Bounce Strategy
Best Time: 9:30 AM to 11:00 AM or 1:30 PM to 3:00 PM
How it works:
Wait for price to test the VWAP line.
If trend is up, and price bounces from VWAP with a bullish candle → enter Call Option.
If trend is down, and price rejects VWAP with bearish candle → enter Put Option.
Entry: On confirmation candle after touching VWAP
Target: 15–25 points on option premium
Stop Loss: 5-minute candle close above/below VWAP
Why it works: Institutions use VWAP for entries; many intraday algos are VWAP-based.
2. CPR Breakout Scalping
Best Time: Opening hour or post-lunch (2:00 PM onwards)
How it works:
If the day’s CPR is narrow, expect trending moves.
Wait for a breakout above CPR high (for long) or below CPR low (for short).
Entry only after a strong 5-minute candle closes outside CPR.
Bonus Tip: Narrow CPR + gap-up = trend day; very scalper-friendly.
Targets: 1:1.5 or trailing stop loss
Risk: High if you trade before confirmation—wait for candle close.
3. Opening Range Breakout (ORB)
Best Time: 9:15 AM – 9:45 AM
How it works:
Mark high and low of first 15 minutes (Opening Range).
Wait for price to break above high or below low with volume.
Ride the momentum for a quick 20–30 point move.
Ideal with: Volume spike + option chain confirmation (OI buildup)
Setup Example:
Bank Nifty breaks above 15-min high, with strong buying in 44,000 CE option → go long.
4. Momentum Scalping with RSI + Candles
How it works:
Use 3-minute chart.
If RSI crosses 60 and a strong green candle forms → go long.
If RSI drops below 40 and red candle forms → go short.
Why this works: Combines price momentum with volume conviction.
Targets: Small, quick moves (10–20 points in Nifty, 20–40 in Bank Nifty options)
Stop Loss: Fixed SL or previous candle high/low
5. Option Chain Scalping – "Smart Money Footprint"
How it works:
Track OI build-up in real-time (especially at ATM or 1-step OTM strikes).
If you see heavy OI build-up + volume spike at 44,000 CE → momentum may build.
Enter on confirmation from price chart (ideally with VWAP or CPR confluence).
Bonus: Combine this with Live Change in OI (many brokers offer this now).
Tools to watch:
Strike Price OI Build-up
IV Rise (Implied Volatility)
Volume on Option Contracts
Important Scalping Do’s & Don'ts
Do’s:
Trade only when price structure + indicator + volume align.
Use limit orders to reduce slippage.
Cut losses fast. Scalping is risk-first.
Have fixed daily targets (e.g., ₹1,500/day)
Trade less when market is choppy
Don’ts:
Don’t chase after big moves already gone.
Don’t increase lot size without system consistency.
Don’t scalp in low volatility phases (e.g., between 12–1:30 PM).
Mindset of a Nifty/Bank Nifty Scalper
You are not a trend trader – you’re a sniper.
Profits come from repetition, not jackpot moves.
You must read the pulse of the market within the first 30 minutes.
No trade > bad trade.
Scalping is about control, discipline, and micro-decisions. Even 3–5 successful trades in a session can result in high accuracy days.
Example Live Scenario (Bank Nifty)
Date: Suppose Bank Nifty opens at 44,000
CPR Range: 43,940–44,060 (tight)
VWAP: At 44,020
Option Chain: 44,000 CE OI increasing rapidly, price trading above VWAP
Setup: CPR breakout + VWAP hold + OI build-up at CE
Trade: Buy 44,000 CE @ ₹120
Target: ₹140–₹160
SL: ₹110
Exit: Within 10–15 mins
Avoid trading just on gut feeling. Use structure.
Conclusion
Scalping in Nifty and Bank Nifty is not gambling—it's calculated, quick decision-making with small but consistent profits. Whether you’re using VWAP, CPR, or live option data, your edge comes from preparation and discipline, not prediction.
If you're just starting, begin with paper trading or small lots, and gradually scale up once your win-rate improves. With time, you'll find the setup that fits your personality best—whether it’s breakout-based, pullback scalping, or OI-driven.
Banknifty 1D Timeframe📈 Bank Nifty – Market Overview
Opening Price: Opened strong near 57,250–57,300.
Intraday High: Touched around 57,286 in early trading hours.
Intraday Low: Dropped towards 56,730 during mid to late session.
Current Trading Range: Between 56,730 and 57,280, with a mild negative bias.
Previous Close: Around 56,953.
Current Loss: Trading -0.3% to -0.5% lower compared to previous close.
🔍 Key Drivers Today
Private Banks Hold Strength: Stocks like HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank showed resilience, limiting the downside.
PSU Banks Under Pressure: Public sector banks including SBI, PNB, and Canara Bank underperformed, causing the index to drift lower.
Profit Booking Seen: After an early positive move, intraday profit booking pulled the index back.
Low Volatility: Reduced intraday swings, though a narrow downtrend was visible after the first hour.
📊 Technical Picture
Support Zone: Strong support is visible around 56,730–56,700. A breach could see a quick move toward 56,500–56,000.
Resistance Zone: Resistance remains at 57,250–57,300. If this level is crossed, the next upside target is around 57,500–57,700.
Trend Bias: Neutral to bearish for the day due to selling pressure after opening strength.
✅ Summary Conclusion
Bank Nifty is showing slight weakness today, mainly dragged by public sector banks. The index gave up early gains, but private banks kept the fall in check. Current range is 56,730–57,280. Watch for either a bounce above 57,300 or a break below 56,700 for the next clear trend direction.
Mahindra and Mahindra Leverage TradeFor the very first time I am publishing this idea that I recorded today. M&M has been consolidating for a while, it made a high if 3222 in September 2024 and has been consolidating for 11 months. Has tried to breach the level many times, but failed. Had been tracking this recent move. I mostly take the leveraged trades so the stock fits the pick. Started picking up around 3180 when it bounced back from the lows of 3152. I bought 3200 calls, with an Avg price of 65. Scaled up with 3300 Calls at an avg price of 31. All journaled and recorded live today. Not a rocket science, just tracking the simple candlestick patterns. Also had HDFC Life 740 calls which I squared off today and made some profits, which gave me additional leverage to carry on additional risk of 3300 call. Also bought some position in MTF at an avg price of 3210. As of now trade seems safe. Would post as we go along and close the trade. Hope for the best.
Profitable Consistent Trader...Part - 1As the market has opened and prices are moving, you are observing it. The question is whether you are living in the present, comprehending the market, or experiencing it in the past. The common assumption among people who enter trading is that it is easy to make money in the share market, but they fail to realize that consistency is necessary for success.
Newbies have low knowledge and high expectations, while senior newbies have more knowledge and have lower expectations. Intermediates often struggle to control their emotions while trading.
The intermediate phase is crucial in determining whether a person will become a consistent trader or not. The more time a person spends in this phase, the more likely they are to become a consistent trader.
Why? The individual will repeatedly correct their mistakes, forming a habit that reinforces the neural connections in the brain and establishes it as a regular behavior.
Individuals who engage in revenge trading, impulsive trading, and excessive trading for years fall into this category. Can you steer clear of it? No. Every trader experiences this stage. It is during this stage that they discover the path to becoming a consistent trader. Do you have harmful trading habits that sabotage your success? What elements influence the length of the intermediate phase?
Activity: Record your self-sabotaging trading behaviors. Analyze your trades to gain insight into them. (To be continued next week...)
NIfty50 analysis for 23/07/2025nifty has been in a bearish trend over the past week and recently faced a strong rejection from the 25180–25200 zone, which aligns with a key resistance level on the daily time frame. price action suggests a possible retracement toward the 24780–24800 support zone. this area holds significance as a potential demand zone. it’s crucial to observe price behavior around this level — a strong reaction here could offer clues for the next directional move. wait for confirmation before taking any fresh positions.
XAU/USD 2HRSWING TRADE
- EARN WITH ME DAILY 10K-20K –
XAUUSD Looking good for upside..
When it break level 3329 and sustain.. it will go upside...
BUY@ 3329
Target
1st 3364
2nd 3394
Enjoy trading traders.. Keep add this STOCK in your watch list..
Big Investor are welcome to join the ride ..
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