Beyond Technical Analysis
VALUE INVESTING - ASIAN PAINTS - MEDIUM TO LONG TERM OUTLOOKSymbol - ASIANPAINT
Asian Paints is the largest home decor company in India. The 80+yr old company has major brands like Asian Paints, Berger, Apco, etc under its umbrella. The co. is into wall paints, wall coverings, waterproofing, texture painting, wall stickers, mechanized tools, adhesives, modular kitchens, sanitaryware, lightings, soft furnishings, and uPVC windows.
Asian Paints stock is currently trading at a relatively low valuation, making it an attractive investment pick for value investors. The stock has already fallen 36% from its ATH, which is notable. Large-cap industry leader companies generally do not see corrections of more than 40%, suggesting that the stock could be nearing a solid support zone and presenting a good opportunity for long-term investors.
From a fundamental standpoint, Asian Paints has strong profitability metrics and maintains robust fundamentals, which supports the case for a potential recovery. Despite the recent downturn, the company's strong market position in the paints industry and consistent financial performance provide confidence in its ability to navigate through this correction.
While the stock has faced downward pressure, these factors suggest that it could be an appealing pick for investors looking for value, especially at these lower levels. As the stock is currently undervalued, the downside risk appears limited, and the probability of a reversal or consolidation at these levels increases.
In the short term, any further drops may find support around lower price levels, but given the company's solid fundamentals, a bounce back remains highly likely over the medium to long term. Entry, SL & Target levels are indicated on the chart.
Disclaimer - Do not consider this as a buy/sell recommendation. I'm sharing my analysis & my trading position. You can track it for educational purposes. Thanks!
Scalping vs. Swing Trading: Which One is Better for You?Hello Traders!
Today’s topic is one that often sparks debate in the trading community: Scalping vs. Swing Trading. Both strategies have their unique strengths and challenges, and the choice between them largely depends on your trading style, time availability, and risk tolerance. Let’s break down the key differences to help you decide which approach may be better suited for you!
Scalping: The Fast-Paced Trading Strategy
Scalping is a trading strategy that focuses on making small profits from small price movements throughout the day. Traders who engage in scalping, also known as scalpers , typically execute multiple trades in a short period, often holding positions for just a few minutes or even seconds.
Key Characteristics of Scalping:
Short Holding Period: Scalpers hold positions for seconds to minutes, looking to capitalize on small price fluctuations.
High Frequency of Trades: A scalper executes many trades in a day, potentially dozens or hundreds, depending on market conditions.
Low Profit per Trade: While scalping, the profit per trade is small, but the cumulative returns can be substantial if executed consistently.
Requires Fast Decision-Making: Scalpers need to make quick decisions, as they operate in fast-moving markets.
Low Time Commitment per Trade: The time spent on each individual trade is short, but scalping requires constant attention to the markets throughout the trading session.
Swing Trading: The Mid-Term Strategy
Swing trading involves holding positions for a few days to weeks to capture larger price movements. Swing traders aim to take advantage of market “swings” or trends, rather than focusing on small fluctuations like scalpers.
Key Characteristics of Swing Trading:
Medium Holding Period: Positions are typically held for a few days or weeks to capitalize on medium-term price swings.
Fewer Trades per Day: Swing traders typically make fewer trades compared to scalpers, often only executing trades a few times per week.
Larger Profit per Trade: While the profit per trade is larger, swing traders can also face greater risk as positions are held for longer periods.
Trend-Following Approach: Swing traders often look to trade in the direction of the prevailing trend, using technical indicators to identify potential entries and exits.
More Time Between Trades: Swing traders don’t need to monitor the markets constantly like scalpers; they can afford to check their positions less frequently.
Which One is Better?
There is no clear-cut answer to which strategy is better—it depends on your personal preferences, lifestyle, and risk tolerance. Let’s compare them:
Scalping
Best for Active Traders: If you enjoy being constantly engaged with the market and have the time to dedicate to making quick decisions, scalping might be ideal for you .
Requires Quick Reflexes and a High Level of Focus: Scalping can be intense, as you need to react quickly to price movements.
Lower Risk per Trade, But High Frequency of Trades: While the risk per trade is small, the frequent trades can accumulate fees or slippage that impact overall profitability.
Swing Trading
Best for Less Active Traders: Swing trading is ideal if you don’t have time for constant monitoring but still want to take advantage of market movements.
Better for Those Who Can Handle Larger Price Moves: Swing traders need to be more patient and prepared for larger price swings.
More Time Between Trades, More Time for Analysis: Swing traders can dedicate more time to research and analysis before entering positions.
Conclusion:
Ultimately, scalping and swing trading are two effective strategies with their own strengths and weaknesses. Scalping suits fast-paced traders who thrive on constant action, while swing trading is better for those looking for a more relaxed, mid-term approach . Your choice should depend on your trading personality, time commitment, and comfort with risk.
What’s your preferred strategy? Scalping or Swing Trading?
Let me know your thoughts in the comments below! Happy trading!
BTC/USD Long Opportunity: Bullish SetupYour long idea on BTC/USD is based on a breakout above the key resistance level of 96,497.07. The entry is positioned around the current market price of 96,148.17, with a stop loss placed at 95,678.49 to manage risk. The take profit target is set at 96,843.00, aiming for a favorable risk-to-reward ratio!
New York Session Short Idea – BTC/USD
This 15-minute BTC/USD chart highlights a short trade opportunity during the New York session. The price is consolidating near resistance, forming a potential setup for a short position. The key zones to watch:
Entry Zone: Price is currently in a resistance area; look for confirmation before entering.
TP-1: First target aligns with the previous key support level.
TP-2: Final target reflects the broader downside objective.
Monitor price action for rejection signs and confirmation before entering the trade.
Technical analysis of Finolex cables Ltd.Price Action:
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Current Price and Trend: The stock is currently trading around ₹998.55. Given its recent downward movement, it appears to have experienced a pullback from higher levels.
Support and Resistance: The highlighted area near ₹900-₹800 appears to be a significant support zone. The previous highs around ₹1,059.95 could serve as resistance if the price moves higher.
Volume Analysis:
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Volume Trends: There is a significant volume spike in the recent weeks, indicating heightened interest or activity, which may suggest potential reversals or continuations. Noteworthy volume around lows could imply accumulation.
Average Volume: The average volume is 1.63 million while the current volume is notably higher at 8.45 million, indicating strong participation in the market.
Technical Indicators:
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Volume Profile: The volume profile shows higher activity near the support zone, suggesting strong buying interest. This is often a bullish sign if the price holds above this area.
Candlestick Patterns: Recent weekly candles may exhibit signs of indecision (dojis or spinning tops) at the support level, which could indicate buyers stepping in.
Overall Sentiment:
Bullish/Bearish Outlook: If the price remains above the support level, there may be a bullish bias, especially with the strong volume. A breakout above previous highs could provide a strong buy signal.
Risk Considerations: If the price breaks below the support area, it might indicate further downside potential.
Conclusion:
Monitor the stock closely around the support zone, as it could lead to either a reversal or further selling pressure depending on the broader market conditions and news events affecting the company. A reversal pattern with increased volume could indicate a buying opportunity, whereas a sustained drop below support could signal a shift in trend.
Bitcoin Short Trade Setup – Key Levels to WatchThis 15-minute BTC/USD chart from Coinbase highlights a potential short trade setup. A short position is suggested only if price breaks the indicated low, with two take-profit (TP) targets marked at lower levels. The shaded area represents a resistance zone, and a break below the specified support could trigger further downside movement. Traders should monitor price action carefully before entering.
BUY TODAY SELL TOMORROW for 5%DON’T HAVE TIME TO MANAGE YOUR TRADES?
- Take BTST trades at 3:25 pm every day
- Try to exit by taking 4-7% profit of each trade
- SL can also be maintained as closing below the low of the breakout candle
Now, why do I prefer BTST over swing trades? The primary reason is that I have observed that 90% of the stocks give most of the movement in just 1-2 days and the rest of the time they either consolidate or fall
Trendline Breakout in JSWHL
BUY TODAY SELL TOMORROW for 5%
BSE Retesting BO Levels with King CandleNSE:BSE aggressive Short trade as it made a king candle and is close to the previous BO levels and closing below 20 DSMA today.
About:
NSE:BSE is an Indian Stock Exchange at Dalal Street in Mumbai. The Co. facilitates a market for trading in equity, currencies, debt instruments, derivatives, and mutual funds.
F&O Activity:
Short Buildup in Futures with 6000 CE Gaining Significant OI.
Trade Setup:
It looks like a good 1:2 trade setup, with the recent swing high as a strong resistance zone, the RSI is Trending Down and closed below 20 DSMA, If levels are broken Can test 200 DSMA.
Target(Take Profit):
Around 200 DSMA Levels for Swing & Positional Trader.
Stop Loss:
Entry Candle Low for Swing Trader and Recent Swing High or 20 DSMA for Positional Trader.
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Disclaimer: "I am not SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND INVESTMENT ADVISER."
This analysis is intended solely for informational and educational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
Oil India Pullback Swing TradeNSE:OIL looking good for Pullback Swing Trade, giving pullback from election day lows and closing above 10 DSMA.
About:
NSE:OIL is engaged in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas, as well as the transportation of crude oil and production of LPG. It also provides various E&P-related services for oil blocks.
F&O Activity:
Significant Long Buildup With 400 PE OI Addition Significantly.
Trade Setup:
Looks good for a 1:1.7 Risk-Reward Trade with 10 DSMA Trending Upward, Pullback up to 200 DSMA looks likely, and 10 DSMA and Recent Base are Important Levels.
Target(Take Profit):
Near 200 DSMA for Swing Trader
Stop Loss:
Recent Base or Trailing 10 DSMA on Closing Basis for Swing Trader.
📌Thank you for exploring my idea! I hope you found it valuable.
🙏FLLOW for more
👍BOOST if useful
✍️COMMENT Below your views.
Meanwhile, check out my other stock ideas below until this trade is activated. I would love your feedback.
Disclaimer: "I am not SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND INVESTMENT ADVISER."
This analysis is intended solely for informational and educational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
EURUSD - 15M [SHORT TRADE IDEA]FX:EURUSD
Hello traders , here is the full multi time frame analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions, the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. wait for more Smart Money to develop before taking any position . I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied...
Keep trading
Hustle hard
Markets can be Unpredictable, research before trading.
Disclaimer: This trade idea is based on Smart money concept and is for informational purposes only. Trading involves risks; seek professional advice before making any financial decisions. Informational only!!!
NIFTY ON VERGE OF BIG BREAKDOWNNIFTY INDEX (SPOT) is on the verge of big breakdown. Since March 2020 Nifty is trading in a Rising Wedge pattern. Currently Trading at 23000 Levels (near rising wedge pattern support)
If Nifty on the Spot market breaks 22700 and Closes below 22700, Huge correction will be seen, which can be very worse and new comers who joined the market after 2020 (Covid) had never seen. Till your positions with stop loss maintained at 22700 on closing basis.
If market breaks 22700 we expect levels up to 21300 in the next 3-6 months, looking at Marco economic and uncertainty in Global markets, USDINR fall and Gold Massive Run, US Feb Rates Cut Down & FII Selling all indicating some big changes will happen the Indian Equity Market also.
We are very cautioned right now, and expecting bear market for the Year 2025, so keep figures crossed and churn your long term portfolio to Nifty stocks from MID Cap Stocks.
Mastering the Double Bottom Pattern for Trend Reversal Trading!Understanding the Double Bottom Pattern: A Key to Trend Reversal
Hello Traders! Today, let’s dive into the Double Bottom Chart Pattern , a classic technical pattern that signals a potential reversal in a downtrend. The double bottom is considered one of the most reliable patterns for identifying trend reversals, especially in the context of bullish market movements .
This pattern is typically found when the price forms two consecutive lows , each close to the same level, with a peak (or “neckline”) in between. Once the price breaks above the neckline, it indicates a potential long entry point.
Identifying the Double Bottom Pattern
Formation: Recognized by two consecutive lows, the Double Bottom forms when the price hits a support level, bounces up, and then returns to retest the same low before reversing higher.
Neckline Breakout: The pattern is confirmed when the price breaks above the “neckline” (the resistance level formed between the two bottoms). This breakout is typically followed by a sharp upward movement.
Volume Confirmation: Volume typically increases during the breakout, confirming the pattern and signaling strong momentum.
Support Zone: The area between the two bottoms, where the price repeatedly tests support, is a key area for setting stop losses and defining your risk management.
Trading Strategy: Double Bottom Pattern
Entry Point: Consider entering a long position once the price breaks above the neckline, confirming a trend reversal.
Stop Loss: Place your stop loss just below the second bottom to minimize risk if the price retraces.
Profit Targets: Measure the distance from the bottom to the neckline and project that distance upwards from the breakout point to determine your potential target.
Real-World Application: Lumax Industries Case Study
Looking at the chart of Lumax Industries , we can see a perfect example of the Double Bottom Pattern from 2008-2010. After the price tested the support zone twice, it broke above the neckline, confirming the reversal and setting the stage for strong upward momentum. This would have been an excellent entry point for traders who understood the power of this chart pattern.
Risk Management Considerations
Position Sizing: Adjust your position size according to the risk involved in trading this pattern.
Stop Loss Placement: The stop loss should be placed below the second bottom to protect against potential false breakouts.
Patience & Confirmation: Wait for confirmation of the breakout, and ensure volume is increasing as the price breaks through the neckline.
What This Means for Traders
By mastering the Double Bottom Pattern , traders can confidently enter trend reversals and capitalize on the subsequent price movement.
Look for the pattern in downtrending markets to identify potential opportunities for reversal.
Use volume as confirmation to validate the breakout and avoid false signals.
Be disciplined with stop losses to manage risk while allowing for maximum reward.
Outcome:
The Double Bottom Pattern is a powerful tool for identifying trend reversals, and when used correctly, it can provide high-probability trade setups with excellent risk-to-reward ratios. By understanding its formation and applying proper risk management, traders can enhance their trading strategies and improve their overall performance.
What’s your experience with the Double Bottom pattern?
Have you used this pattern in your trading? How did it work for you? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
Mark Minervini: Master of Trend Following and Risk Management!Mark Minervini: Master of Trend Following and Stock Market Success
Hello everyone! Today, we’re diving into the world of Mark Minervini , a U.S. stock trader and author who has made a significant impact in the trading world. Known for his trend-following strategies and risk management mindset , Minervini is widely respected for his disciplined approach to the market.
Mark Minervini’s philosophy is built around timing the market right, managing risk, and investing in stocks with momentum . His success can be attributed to his ability to combine technical analysis , fundamental analysis , and strict risk management into a coherent strategy.
Mark Minervini’s Key Trading Principles
Buy High, Sell Higher: Minervini’s strategy is focused on buying stocks at breakout points , when they are moving above previous highs, signaling strong momentum and potential for larger gains.
Look for Stocks with Strong Fundamentals and Technicals: He believes in a balanced approach, using both fundamental analysis and technical indicators to identify stocks that have the potential to deliver strong returns.
The 90-90 Rule: Minervini’s 90-90 rule suggests that 90% of the time, the market moves with the top 10% performing stocks , and those top-performing stocks often deliver massive returns.
Cut Losses Quickly and Let Profits Run: A central principle of Minervini’s strategy is risk management . He advocates cutting losses quickly and letting profits run , ensuring that small losses don’t turn into bigger ones.
Risk Management Mindset: Mark Minervini stresses the importance of having a risk management mindset when trading. Managing risk is just as important as identifying profitable trades. He advises traders to always protect capital , as this is the foundation of long-term success in the market.
Stay Disciplined and Follow a System: Minervini’s success is rooted in his disciplined approach. He sticks to his rules and doesn’t deviate from his proven system, regardless of market fluctuations.
Mark Minervini’s Iconic Trades
✔ Stock Breakouts: Minervini made a fortune by buying stocks at breakout points where stocks are showing strong upward momentum.
✔ Growth Stocks in Bull Markets: He focuses on identifying high-growth stocks in strong bull markets, which consistently outperform the broader market.
✔ Precise Entry Points: Minervini does not just buy any stock but waits for specific technical patterns that suggest high-probability entry points.
What This Means for Traders:
By following Minervini’s principles, traders can:
Focus on high-performing stocks with upward momentum that break above key resistance levels.
Prioritize risk management and always be ready to cut losses to protect your capital.
Stay disciplined and follow a systematic approach that relies on precise entry points and controlled risk.
Leverage both technical and fundamental analysis to make smarter, more informed decisions.
Outcome:
Mark Minervini’s success is a result of his comprehensive approach to trading , which includes precise entry points, strong risk management, and a disciplined mindset. Traders who follow these principles can improve their results and take their trading to the next level.
What do you think of Mark Minervini’s trading approach ? Have you implemented any of his strategies in your own trades? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
Nifty Long Term ChannelNifty has been in this channel since 1990 & we see a throw over in 2008 when extreme bullishness takes it past the channel top to only see a deep correction.
We are near to channel top again but do we have extreme sentiment on bullish side ?
No rather we have a extreme bearish sentiment so can we see a throw over again in this channel for this bull cycle started from Covid lows of March 2020.
Lets dig some numbers March 2020 Low was 7511
Oct 2021 High was 18604
Net Rise 11093 Points
June 2021 Low was 15183
Add 11093
Sept 2024 High 26277
Now we did to 2 equal rise of 11093 points 1st in 19 Months & second in 27 Months what if the low of 22786 is a major low given the extreme negative sentiment at we are adding another 11093 points from here in next 19 months.
Are we heading to 33900 by Oct 2026 ?
If Nifty closes above 25000 than second hurdle will be ATH at 26277 than we would see fast & furious bull run which could be last leg of this euphoria which gives a throw over on this long term Channel.
DISC : View shared here are for Educational purpose only i am not a SEBI registered analyst please consult your Financial advisor before taking any trades.
CORE CPI DATA NEWS TRADING GOLD WILL HIT THE TARGET OR NOT Ongoing global trade uncertainties, particularly concerns over potential reciprocal tariffs proposed by the U.S., have bolstered gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. As a result, gold prices have seen a slight increase.
Given these mixed signals, the direction of gold prices remains uncertain. Traders should closely monitor upcoming economic indicators, such as the Producer Price Index (PPI) and further statements from Federal Reserve officials, to assess the potential impact on gold. Implementing risk management strategies, including setting stop-loss orders and staying informed about market developments, is advisable to navigate the current volatility.
Nifty recovered 1% from its low today. Did '786' factor worked?Nifty defended the recent low of 22786 of 27 Jan today and formed a Hammer candle which is capable of trend reversal. Will the trend really reverse is yet to be seen. Burt let's see what worked for Nifty today and can is in making for the next session.
Watch the video.
Vijay Kedia: The Master of Long-Term Value Investing!Vijay Kedia: The Master of Long-Term Value Investing
Hello everyone! Today, I’m diving into the investment journey of Vijay Kedia , one of the most successful investors in India. Known for his long-term value investing , Kedia has achieved impressive returns by focusing on undervalued stocks with great potential. His disciplined approach and patience have been key to his success, and his mantra truly reflects his investing philosophy:
“Invest like a bull, sit like a bear, and watch like an eagle.”
This timeless philosophy teaches us that success comes from buying right, being patient, and waiting for the market to reward you . Let’s explore some of Kedia’s best multibagger holdings and how they played a major role in his wealth creation.
Vijay Kedia’s Multibagger Holdings
Vijay Kedia’s investing style revolves around finding hidden gems in the stock market with long-term growth potential. Here are some of the iconic stocks that have given him multibagger returns:
Cera Sanitaryware:-
Kedia’s investment in Cera Sanitaryware delivered over 100x returns. He spotted its potential early on when others missed it, believing in companies with a strong brand, high demand, and solid growth fundamentals.
Atul Auto:-
Atul Auto , a manufacturer of three-wheelers, gave nearly 30x returns. Kedia’s bet on its robust business model and market position paid off as the company became a sector leader.
Titan Company:-
Titan Company is a multibagger in Kedia’s portfolio. He recognized its potential in the watch and jewelry market long before it became a household name. The stock has delivered massive returns due to its brand strength and consistent growth .
Procter & Gamble Hygiene:-
Kedia’s investment in Procter & Gamble Hygiene highlighted his strategy of investing in companies with strong market dominance and global reach. The stock has significantly appreciated over time, giving Kedia impressive returns.
V-Guard Industries:-
V-Guard Industries has been another outstanding multibagger. Kedia saw its potential in the growing infrastructure and industrial sector in India, making it a solid long-term investment.
What We Can Learn from Vijay Kedia’s Investment Journey
Vijay Kedia’s approach to investing is grounded in several key principles that every trader and investor should consider:
Focus on the Long Term: Kedia believes in buying great businesses and holding them forever. The idea is not to chase short-term gains but to invest in companies that will compound over time.
Strong Fundamentals and Management Quality: For Kedia, management quality is paramount. He invests in companies with ethical, efficient management that focuses on creating long-term value for shareholders.
Patience Pays Off: Kedia’s ability to wait for the right opportunities to mature has been key to his success. His investments often take time to realize their true value, but patience rewards those who stick with their strategy.
Trust Your Analysis, Don’t Follow Trends: Kedia stresses the importance of individual analysis and not following market trends blindly. He chooses stocks based on fundamentals, not market hype.
Outcome:
Vijay Kedia’s investment philosophy is a great lesson for traders and investors alike. Investing with patience, focusing on quality stocks, and staying true to your research can create tremendous wealth over time. Kedia’s portfolio is a testament to the power of long-term value investing, and his story continues to inspire the next generation of investors.
What do you think of Vijay Kedia’s approach to investing ? Have you invested in any of his recommended stocks? Share your thoughts in the comments below!