USDJPY 1H📍 USDJPY – 1H
🔹 Support Zones
147.80 – 148.00 → Immediate intraday support
147.30 – 147.50 → Strong support; buyers likely active
146.80 – 147.00 → Major support; breakdown here may extend bearish momentum
🔹 Resistance Zones
148.50 – 148.70 → Immediate intraday resistance
149.00 – 149.20 → Strong resistance; breakout can trigger further rally
149.70 – 150.00 → Major psychological resistance
⚖️ Quick Summary
Bias: Currently range-bound with a bullish tilt as long as price stays above 147.80.
Breakout above 148.70 may open the way towards 149.20 – 150.00.
Breakdown below 147.80 may drag price back to 147.30 – 147.00.
Current watch zone: 147.80 – 148.70.
Beyond Technical Analysis
Sensex Structure Analysis & Trade Plan : 10th September 🔎 Market Structure Analysis (Sensex)
4H Chart
Price is respecting the ascending channel and holding above the 80,800 level.
Immediate resistance lies at 81,200–81,300 zone (supply area + prior rejection).
Strong demand zone rests near 80,000–80,200, which has acted as a base for multiple rallies.
Bias: Sideways-to-bullish, as long as 80,800 holds.
1H Chart
Clear structure of higher lows being maintained since early September.
Price is consolidating just below 81,200 resistance with multiple rejections → a breakout here can trigger a sharp move toward 81,600–81,750.
Support clusters at 80,800 and 80,500 zones.
Market shows liquidity sweeps around supply, suggesting accumulation before expansion.
15M Chart
Price is compressing between 81,200 resistance and 80,900 support.
Minor FVG (Fair Value Gap) near 80,850–80,900, which could act as a magnet short-term.
If price sustains above 81,200, momentum buyers may enter.
Failure at 81,200 could bring a quick retest of 80,800–80,850.
📈 Trade Plan (10th September)
Bullish Scenario
Entry: On sustained breakout above 81,200 with good candle close (1H/15M confirmation).
Target 1: 81,600
Target 2: 81,750
Stop-loss: Below 81,000
Bearish Scenario
Entry: If price rejects 81,200 supply zone again and breaks below 80,900.
Target 1: 80,600
Target 2: 80,200
Stop-loss: Above 81,300
Neutral/Wait-and-Watch
If price remains stuck between 81,000–81,200, avoid trading → wait for breakout direction.
✅ Bias for 10th September:
Range-to-bullish bias unless 80,800 breaks.
Watch closely for breakout at 81,200; this level will decide whether we head higher or pull back.
Banknifty Structure Analysis & Trade Plan: 10th September 🔎 Market Structure Analysis
4H Chart (Swing Bias)
Price is consolidating within a rising channel but facing strong supply zone near 54,400–54,600.
Multiple rejections seen in this area → clear sign of overhead resistance.
Demand zones visible around 54,000 and 53,600, where buyers have previously defended.
Structure: Still range-bound between 53,600 – 54,600, leaning towards distribution near resistance.
1H Chart (Intraday Bias)
Market attempted a breakout above 54,400 but failed, creating a liquidity grab at the top.
Price retested mid-range support (~54,000–54,100) and is currently holding trendline support.
Multiple FVGs left below 54,000 → risk of price revisiting those zones if momentum fails.
Bias: Cautious long only above 54,400; otherwise, sideways with bearish pressure if breakdown happens.
15M Chart (Execution Zone)
Clear rejection candle from supply zone 54,400–54,500.
Small order block support formed at ~54,100.
Upside liquidity resting above 54,600, downside liquidity resting below 53,900.
Ideal trade setup will depend on whether price breaks below 54,100 or sustains above 54,400.
📌 Trade Plan for 10th September
Bullish Scenario (if strength holds)
Entry: Long only above 54,400 (confirmation candle).
Targets: 54,600 → 54,800.
Stoploss: Below 54,150.
Reasoning: Breakout + liquidity sweep above supply zone.
Bearish Scenario (preferred if rejection continues)
Entry: Short near 54,300–54,400 rejection zone.
Targets: 54,050 → 53,800 → 53,600.
Stoploss: Above 54,500.
Reasoning: Rejection from strong supply + FVGs below to be filled.
Neutral / Sideways Plan
If price stays stuck between 54,100–54,400, avoid aggressive trades.
Range scalping possible:
Buy near 54,100 demand with tight SL.
Sell near 54,400 supply with tight SL.
✅ Bias Summary: BankNifty is range-bound with bearish tilt unless it gives a strong breakout above 54,400. Safer to look for shorts from supply until clear evidence of breakout comes.
Nifty Market Structure Analysis & Trade Plan: 10th September 🔹 4H Timeframe (Swing Structure)
Price is inside an ascending channel, holding higher lows.
Strong resistance overhead: 24,950 – 25,050 FVG + Supply Zone.
Current price is consolidating just under 24,880 (mini-resistance).
Demand zones:
24,800 – 24,840 (nearest support / VI zone).
24,650 – 24,700 FVG (deeper pullback zone).
📌 Bias → Cautious Bullish until 24,800 holds. A break below 24,650 opens downside risk.
🔹 1H Timeframe (Intraday Bias)
Price consolidating inside a tight upward channel, making multiple wicks around 24,850 – 24,880.
Clear liquidity grab attempts above 24,880, but no strong breakout yet.
Fair Value Gap (FVG) below at 24,720 – 24,750, could attract price for mitigation before next leg.
Micro structure shows higher lows still intact.
📌 Bias → Neutral to bullish as long as 24,800 support holds. Watch for fakeouts above 24,880–24,900.
🔹 15M Timeframe (Execution)
Price rejected twice near 24,880–24,900 liquidity pocket.
Demand order block visible at 24,800 – 24,820.
Intraday upside target: 24,950 – 25,000, if 24,900 breaks with volume.
Breakdown trigger: clean 15M close below 24,800, downside target 24,720 → 24,650.
📌 Bias → Execution timeframe favors scalp longs near 24,820–24,840 demand with tight stop.
📝 Trade Plan for 10th Sept
Long Scenario ✅
Entry Zone: 24,820 – 24,840 (demand support).
SL: Below 24,780.
Targets:
24,900 (first liquidity sweep)
24,950 – 25,000 (supply / FVG fill).
Short Scenario ❌
Trigger: If 24,800 breaks with momentum.
Entry: Below 24,780 after retest.
SL: Above 24,850.
Targets:
24,720 (first demand zone)
24,650 (FVG / OB test).
📌 Summary:
Structure is short-term bullish, but supply above 24,900–25,000 is heavy.
Tomorrow, look for longs near 24,820–24,840 → exit partials at 24,900 → extended targets at 24,950–25,000.
Flip short only if 24,800 breaks.
BUY TODAY SELL TOMORROW for 5%DON’T HAVE TIME TO MANAGE YOUR TRADES?
- Take BTST trades at 3:25 pm every day
- Try to exit by taking 4-7% profit of each trade
- SL can also be maintained as closing below the low of the breakout candle
Now, why do I prefer BTST over swing trades? The primary reason is that I have observed that 90% of the stocks give most of the movement in just 1-2 days and the rest of the time they either consolidate or fall
Resistance Breakout in ZOTA
BUY TODAY SELL TOMORROW for 5%
Sensex Market Structure Analysis & Trade Plan: 9th September 🔹 4H Chart (Swing Bias)
Structure: Price is in an ascending channel, recovering from the 79,800 demand zone.
Supply Zone: 81,200–81,600 zone rejected twice, showing strong sellers.
Demand Zone: 80,200–79,800 remains a strong base.
Current Action: Price printed a rejection wick at 81,200 and pulled back to 80,800. The channel is still valid, but upside momentum is slowing.
✅ Bias: Neutral-to-Bearish until 81,200 is decisively broken.
🔹 1H Chart (Intraday Bias)
Structure: Price attempted a rally but faced rejection at 81,200 supply.
Short-term Demand: Around 80,600–80,700 (FVG + previous OB).
Short-term Supply: 81,200–81,400 (rejection zone).
Observation: Lower highs forming within the 81,200 resistance area. Liquidity grab possible above 81,200.
✅ Bias: Range-bound intraday (80,600 support – 81,200 resistance).
🔹 15M Chart (Execution Bias)
Liquidity: Clear liquidity sweep above 81,200 followed by rejection.
Order Block: Fresh OB formed at 80,600.
Momentum: Weak recovery candles, suggesting supply pressure remains.
✅ Bias: Short-term bearish unless 81,200 breaks with volume.
📌 Trade Plan for 9th Sept (Monday)
🔸 Long Setup
Entry: 80,650–80,700 (demand zone/FVG fill).
Target 1: 81,000
Target 2: 81,200–81,250 (supply retest).
Stoploss: 80,500
Risk: Only valid if 80,600 demand holds.
🔸 Short Setup
Entry: 81,150–81,200 (supply retest).
Target 1: 80,800
Target 2: 80,500
Stoploss: 81,350
Risk: Best setup if price fakes out above 81,200 and fails again.
🎯 Summary
Swing view: Neutral-to-Bearish below 81,200.
Intraday: Range-bound between 80,600–81,200.
Trade Plan: Fade supply at 81,200 for shorts OR buy demand at 80,600 for bounce plays.
Banknifty Structure Analysis & Trade Plan: 9th September 🔎 Market Structure Analysis
4H Chart
Price is moving inside a rising channel after recovering from the 53,600–53,700 demand zone.
Current rejection from 54,500 supply zone (aligned with FVG + resistance block).
Price is now testing the mid-channel support and minor bullish order block near 54,100–54,200.
Liquidity sweep was seen above 54,400 (quick rejection), indicating sellers defending this zone.
1H Chart
Clear up-channel structure intact, but price is consolidating between 54,100–54,400.
A market structure shift (MSS) is visible around 54,300 → short-term weakness developing.
If 54,100 breaks, imbalance + OB around 53,800–53,900 could act as next support.
15M Chart
Short-term liquidity sweep above 54,400 followed by a rejection → confirms supply zone strength.
Price is currently hovering around the ascending channel support line (54,200 zone).
OB + liquidity resting just below at 53,950–54,000 could trigger a bounce.
📌 Key Levels
Immediate Resistance Zones
54,400–54,500 → strong supply, repeated rejection
54,800–55,000 → next upside target if breakout happens
Immediate Support Zones
54,100–54,200 → channel + OB support (watch for breakdown)
53,800–53,900 → FVG + OB (high probability demand zone)
53,400–53,600 → major demand zone (swing support)
📊 Trade Plan for 9th September
Scenario 1 – Bullish Continuation
If price sustains above 54,200, look for long entries.
Targets: 54,400 → 54,500 → 54,800.
SL: Below 54,050.
Scenario 2 – Bearish Breakdown
If price breaks below 54,100 with momentum, expect decline towards:
53,900 (first demand fill)
Extended target: 53,600 (major demand zone).
Short entries possible on retest of 54,100 after breakdown.
SL: Above 54,300.
Scenario 3 – Range Play
If price remains stuck between 54,100–54,400, better to trade intraday scalps only.
Buy near 54,100 → Sell near 54,400 until breakout happens.
✅ Bias for Monday (9th Sept): Neutral-to-Bearish
Rejection from 54,400 suggests weakness.
Key decision point: 54,100 support → breakdown will accelerate bearish move.
Nifty Structure Analysis & Trade Plan: 09th September 🔎 Market Structure Analysis (Multi-Timeframe)
4H Chart
Nifty has been in a rising channel since 29th August lows (~24,280).
Price is currently around 24,790, sitting at mid-channel support.
Multiple supply zones overhead:
24,850–24,900 (fresh supply, recent rejection).
25,000–25,050 (unfilled FVG + strong supply).
Demand zones:
24,700–24,720 (FVG + channel support).
24,550–24,580 (deeper demand zone).
Bias: 4H is still bullish-to-neutral, as long as price holds above 24,700. Break below 24,700 will turn structure weak.
1H Chart
Clear break of structure (BOS) upwards on 6th Sept.
Current pullback has respected 24,740–24,760 demand.
Liquidity was swept above 24,850, which aligns with rejection from supply.
Trendline support intact, but looks fragile.
Bias: 1H shows a short-term corrective pullback, but trend still points higher if demand holds.
15M Chart
Market swept liquidity near 24,850, rejected hard, now consolidating.
Strong support forming near 24,730–24,750.
If broken, downside target = 24,650.
If defended, upside re-test of 24,850–24,900 possible.
Bias: Neutral, waiting for confirmation at 24,730 zone.
📌 Trade Plan for 9th September (Monday)
Bullish Scenario
Entry: Near 24,730–24,750 demand zone if defended with bullish candle.
SL: Below 24,680.
Targets:
T1 = 24,850 (previous supply).
T2 = 25,000–25,050 (major FVG & supply).
Bearish Scenario
Trigger: If price closes below 24,720 on 15M/1H.
Entry: Short on breakdown retest around 24,720–24,740.
SL: Above 24,800.
Targets:
T1 = 24,650 (first demand).
T2 = 24,560 (major demand).
Key Levels to Watch
24,850–24,900 → Supply rejection zone.
24,730–24,750 → Immediate demand & decision point.
24,650 / 24,560 → Next strong supports.
25,000–25,050 → Bullish target if demand holds.
✅ Summary:
Nifty is at a make-or-break zone near 24,750.
Hold = continuation towards 24,900–25,050.
Break = deeper pullback towards 24,650–24,560.
AIMTRON IN (Aimtron Electronics)Aimtron Electronics Limited (NSE: AIMTRON) is an Electronics Technology company specializing in Electronic System Design and Manufacturing (ESDM). It offers a wide range of services including Printed Circuit Board (PCB) design, assembly, and complete electronic system manufacturing ('Box Build').
The company serves global clients in the areas of Industrial Automation, Electric Vehicles, IoT, Medical Devices, Robotics and more
Aimtron focuses on precision engineering and complex electronic systems
The company serves over 500 global customers, including the US, UK, India, Hong Kong, Spain and Mexico markets
Aimtron Electronics successfully completed its IPO in June 2024, wherein 54,04,800 equity shares were issued at a price of Rs 161 per share.
This allowed the company to raise Rs 87.01 crore
The proceeds from the IPO were partially used to increase equity capital.
One of the key objectives of the IPO was to pay off debt.
The company has significantly reduced its debt burden
The shares are trading at a high valuation.
P/E 59
P/S 9.5
👆Such a high valuation is explained by operational and financial performance, and investors are giving a significant premium for such business growth
Revenue over the past year has grown by 71%, and net profit by 89%
ROE is 24.9% This indicates an efficient use of capital.
The company has almost no debt
The main reason for the growth of the shares was strong earnings growth
Aimtron's board of directors has met several times to discuss plans to attract additional capital
The company has already begun expanding its production capacity.
In fiscal 2025, it added a new surface mount (SMT) line, which increased production capabilities
The funds raised will be used for further capital investments in equipment, meeting working capital needs and general corporate purposes, including expanding its international presence
Shyam Metalics & Energy Crossing Key Levels.NSE:SHYAMMETL today gave almost a 9% Move Closing above key levels and making new Swing Highs on the back of the News of Business update of Jan Month.
JANUARY STAINLESS STEEL SALES VOLUMES UP 59% YOY
JANUARY SPONGE IRON SALES VOLUMES UP 1% YOY
About:
NSE:SHYAMMETL is primarily engaged in manufacturing steel and allied products including pellets, sponge iron, TMT and long products, ferroalloys and power generation.
Trade Setup:
It could be a Good 1:1 Positional Trade as it made a Good Base near July Month Breakout Levels with RSI and MACD Trending Upwards and Closing Above all Major Moving Averages. Buy on DIps Will be a better approach
Target(Take Profit):
Around 975 or ATH Levels for Positional Trader
Stop Loss:
Recent Base Will Act as a Support so keep it as Stop Loss. Swing Trader Can Keep Entry Candle Low as Stop Loss.
📌Thank you for exploring my idea! I hope you found it valuable.
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Meanwhile, check out my other stock ideas on the right side until this trade is activated. I would love your feedback.
Disclaimer: "I am not SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND INVESTMENT ADVISER."
This analysis is intended solely for informational and educational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
Gold sentiment Here is a detailed technical and sentiment analysis for gold incorporating RSI, MACD, Ichimoku, and Volume, based on the charts and data you provided, followed by a concrete trading strategy.
Overall Sentiment: Bullish Exhaustion at a Critical Juncture
The market is in a state of powerful bullish momentum fueled by weak economic data (NFP) but is showing clear technical signs of exhaustion and overbought conditions. This creates a high-risk environment where a significant pullback is increasingly probable before any next leg up.
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Technical Indicator Analysis
While your charts don't show the indicators directly, we can infer their likely state based on the price action and standard settings.
1. Relative Strength Index (RSI - Typically 14-period):
· Likely Reading: On the Daily (1D) and 4H charts, the RSI is almost certainly in overbought territory (above 70, likely even above 80).
· Analysis: This confirms the market is overbought. The minor pullbacks on the 2H and 4H charts (shown by the small red candles) are likely causing the RSI to dip from extreme levels, but it remains elevated. This is a classic warning sign of a potential reversal or consolidation.
2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD - Typically 12,26,9):
· Likely Reading: On all timeframes, the MACD is above its signal line and at or near extreme highs.
· Analysis: This supports the strong bullish momentum. However, on the shorter timeframes (2H, 4H), we should be watching for bearish divergence (price making equal or higher highs while the MACD makes lower highs). This would be a strong short-term sell signal. The current consolidation increases the probability of this divergence forming.
3. Ichimoku Kinko Hyo:
· Price vs. Cloud (Kumo): The price is ** dramatically above the Senkou Span (Cloud)** on the daily chart. This indicates an extremely strong bullish trend but also a massive extension from its mean, suggesting a pullback towards the cloud is a high probability.
· Tenkan-sen (Conversion Line) vs. Kijun-sen (Base Line): The Tenkan-sen is almost certainly far above the Kijun-sen, confirming the strong trend. A crossing below would be a strong short-term bearish signal.
· Future Cloud: The cloud is likely bullish (green) and thinning, suggesting underlying trend strength but potential for volatility.
4. Volume:
· Analysis: The COT report is a form of volume analysis. The ** surge in open interest (+49,148 contracts)** from the 09/02 report, driven by new speculator longs, represents a massive influx of volume and commitment. However, this often marks climactic buying, not a sustainable pace. In the price charts, the consolidation near the highs on declining volume would be a bearish sign, indicating a lack of new buyers at these levels.
Synthesis of All Factors
Factor Analysis Implication
Fundamental (NFP) Very Bullish. Weak data = weak USD, dovish Fed. Long-term trend is UP.
COT (Speculative Sentiment) Extremely Bullish (Overheated). Record net long positioning. High short-term risk of a sharp pullback.
Price Trend Bullish but Stalling. Consolidating at all-time highs. Indecision; potential exhaustion.
RSI Overbought on higher timeframes. Suggests a correction is due.
MACD Bullish but potential for bearish divergence. Momentum may be waning.
Ichimoku Price extremely extended from Cloud. Suggests a pullback is likely.
Volume (via COT) Climactic buying. Often marks a short-term peak.
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Trading Strategy for Today
Core Principle: The trend is still up, but the risk/reward for new long entries at the current price is very poor. The optimal strategy is to wait for a technical correction to buy into strength or prepare for a reversal signal.
Scenario 1: Wait for a Pullback to Buy (Highest Probability & Prudence)
· Idea: Use the overbought signals and Ichimoku analysis to anticipate a pullback to a stronger support zone.
· Entry Zone: $3,480 - $3,520. This area aligns with previous resistance (now support) and a potential pullback towards the rising Tenkan-sen or Kijun-sen on the 4H chart.
· Confirmation: Look for bullish reversal candlesticks (hammer, bullish engulfing) and an RSI pulling back towards 50 (but not oversold).
· Stop Loss: A daily close below $3,450.
· Target: A move back towards the highs at $3,580 - $3,600.
Scenario 2: Breakout Trade (Lower Probability, Higher Risk)
· Idea: If the bullish momentum ignores all overbought signals.
· Entry: A sustained 4H or daily close above $3,610.
· Confirmation: The MACD should make a new high (avoiding divergence) and volume should increase on the breakout.
· Stop Loss: Below $3,590.
· Target: $3,650 - $3,680. Use a trailing stop.
Scenario 3: Aggressive Fade (For Experienced Traders)
· Idea: Fade the extreme bullish sentiment using bearish divergence and overbought RSI.
· Entry: On a clear bearish divergence on the 4H MACD (price makes a new high, MACD makes a lower high) AND a rejection from the $3,590 - $3,600 resistance level.
· Stop Loss: A close above $3,610.
· Target: $3,520 - $3,540.
Key Risk Management Note:
· NFP Event Risk: The next NFP release is TODAY (Sep 09, 19:30 GMT). This will cause massive, unpredictable volatility.
· Action: DO NOT enter new positions before this release. The market's reaction to the news will dictate the next major direction. If you are in a position, strongly consider reducing size or hedging.
Summary Table for Action
Strategy Entry Stop Loss Target Confidence
Pullback Buy $3,480 - $3,520 < $3,450 $3,580 - $3,600 High
Breakout Buy $3,610 < $3,590 $3,650 - $3,680 Low
Aggressive Fade ~$3,595 + Divergence $3,610 $3,520 - $3,540 Medium
Final Conclusion: The technical indicators (RSI, MACD, Ichimoku) all align with the COT data to scream "Overbought!" The fundamental driver is strong, but the market needs to cool off. The best trade is no trade until after the NFP news or a pullback into support. Patience will be rewarded with a much better risk-to-reward entry.
NSE:ZYDUSLIFE - Reverse Head & Shoulder Breakout (in progress)NSE:ZYDUSLIFE is showing a strong breakout (in progress) of a reserve H&S pattern on weekly charts. The stock had a nice run earlier from Jun-23 to Aug-24, and after a decent retracement, it is now ready for the next leg of the bull run. Targets and SL update in the chart.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only and must not be construed as advice to buy/sell. Please consult your investment advisor before making a financial decision. Investments are subject to market risks!
NIFTY Analysis 8 SEPTEMBER, 2025 ,Daily Morning update at 9 amNifty is showing short covering from oversold zone.
Closed below fake levels at 24779.
possible to open flat near 24779.
24779 will act as today’s important level.
Sustaining above 24799 signals bullish buyes active.
First upside level is 24860 (breakout).
Above 24860, next level is 24950 and 24983.
Failure to hold 24779 shifts buyers to bearish.
Watch for bearish bb pattern in 15m chart.
Breakdown may test 24643 first support.
Below 24643, next support is 24560.
Strong support at 24485.
Bullish trades valid only above 24779.
Bearish trades valid below 24779.
Focus on small scalping trades.
Wait for clear pattern confirmation before entry.
BHARTIARTL Price ActionBharti Airtel is trading near ₹1,887 as of September 8, 2025, maintaining its leadership position in India’s telecom sector with robust price performance and sector-beating fundamentals. The company’s market capitalization has surpassed ₹11 lakh crore, and it continues to deliver consistent growth in sales, profits, and shareholder value.
The most recent quarterly results showed net profit rising 43% year-on-year to ₹5,948 crore, fueled by a 28% surge in consolidated revenue. Average revenue per user (ARPU) climbed to ₹250, underlying the continued strength in data consumption and premium pricing. Operating profit margins have expanded, with latest EBITDA at ₹28,167 crore and an impressive 56.9% margin.
On the technical front, the stock trades above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a sustained bullish trajectory. Return on equity is currently 23%, a result of effective capital allocation and profitability. Despite a slight dip in promoter shareholding, institutional confidence remains high with solid trading volumes.
Bharti Airtel remains focused on network expansion, digital services, and international growth, particularly its profitable Africa operations. Its sound balance sheet, controlled debt, and resilient free cash flow provide ample scope for ongoing investments and dividends. The outlook remains strongly positive, with the company well-positioned to capture further growth in India’s expanding communications market.
GMDC - Chart of The Week, Testing Trendline, Change of PolarityNSE:GMDCLTD has a beautiful structure on the Weekly Timeframe to qualify for my Chart of the Week idea. It saw Decent Above-Average Volumes and confirmed a Change of Polarity and is Now Testing the Falling Trendline with RSI and MACD trending upwards.
About:
NSE:GMDCLTD is primarily engaged in 2 sectors, i.e. mining and power. Its projects include Lignite, Bauxite, Fluorspar, Multi-Metal, Manganese, Power, Wind and Solar.
Trade Setup:
It could be a good Swing Trade if it breaks the trendline and the Change of Polarity is Still Intact.
If the Trade gets activated after breaking the trendline, then keep this Week's Low as the Stop Loss or Even Take RSI and MACD as a Stop Loss Signal.
📌Thank you for exploring my idea! I hope you found it valuable.
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✍️COMMENT below with your views.
Meanwhile, check out my other stock ideas on the right side until this trade is activated. I would love your feedback.
Disclaimer: "I am not SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND INVESTMENT ADVISER."
This analysis is intended solely for informational and educational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
What is ADR/GDR – How Indian Companies Get Foreign Investors!Hello Traders!
You may have heard terms like ADR and GDR when companies talk about raising money abroad. These instruments allow Indian companies to get international investors without directly listing on foreign stock exchanges. Let’s understand them in simple words.
What is an ADR?
ADR stands for American Depository Receipt .
It is a certificate issued by a US bank that represents shares of a foreign company (like an Indian company). These ADRs trade on US stock exchanges just like normal US stocks.
Example: Infosys and Wipro have ADRs listed in the US.
Advantage: US investors can buy Indian companies without dealing with Indian exchanges.
What is a GDR?
GDR stands for Global Depository Receipt .
It works the same way as ADR, but instead of being limited to the US, GDRs are listed on global exchanges like London or Luxembourg.
Example: Many Indian companies raise funds through GDRs in Europe.
Advantage: Gives access to a larger pool of foreign investors.
Why Do Companies Issue ADR/GDR?
Access to Foreign Capital: Helps Indian companies raise funds from global investors.
Better Visibility: Being listed abroad increases global recognition of the company.
Diversified Investor Base: Attracts institutional investors who may not invest directly in Indian markets.
Liquidity: Allows more trading activity and easier buying/selling internationally.
Rahul’s Tip:
ADR/GDR listings are a sign that a company wants to expand globally and attract foreign capital. But as an investor, always check if the company is fundamentally strong before getting influenced by the “global listing” tag.
Conclusion:
ADR and GDR are simple tools that connect Indian companies with foreign investors.
While ADRs are limited to the US, GDRs open doors to global markets.
For long-term investors, these instruments show how Indian companies are scaling globally.
If this post made ADR/GDR clear for you, like it, share your thoughts in comments, and follow for more market education in simple language!
NIFTY Not Moving Despite GST Cut | Sensex, BN & Market AnalysisThe government's decision to reduce taxes is a positive factor for market sentiment, yet the market has not become fully bullish or reached new highs. This raises the question as to why market is struggling to go up.
Well, the answer lies in the weightage of the Nifty index.
Nifty's Sector Weightage
Approximately 60% of the Nifty's weight is carried by just three sectors:
* Financial Services : Makes up 36.82% of the Nifty's weight.
* Oil, Gas and Fuels (Majorly Reliance) : Accounts for 9.90% of the weight.
* IT Sector : Holds around 10.51% of the weight.
The remaining 40% of the Nifty is composed of many other sectors, including metals, pharma, and FMCG etc
Impact of GST Reforms
The recent Goods and Services Tax (GST) reforms were primarily aimed at the consumption sector to provide relief to the middle class. While the tax benefits are a positive for the consumption sector, its overall weight in the Nifty is only around 7%.
In contrast, the banking sector, which has around 37% weight, did not receive any direct benefits from the GST rate cuts except Insurance Companies. This is a key reason why the banking sector and by extension the market, has not turned fully positive.
Similarly, the IT sector is already largely exempt from GST, so the recent rate cuts had no direct impact on it, preventing it from driving the market up.
The oil and gas sector, dominated by Reliance, also presents a mixed picture. While some areas like Reliance's FMCG and solar projects are positively impacted by the new rules, the government has actually increased taxes on oil and gas, which makes up a significant portion of Reliance's revenue and profit. Furthermore, international tensions continue to affect the revenue and profits of the oil and gas sector.
The Role of International Factors
These three major sectors—banking, IT, and oil and gas—are all directly related to international factors like global situations and the political tensions between India and the US. The market is in a "wait and watch" mode as it awaits the outcome of potential future US actions, such as imposing tariffs. If the US government eases its stance on tariffs, the market is likely to celebrate and move upward. However, if any new tariffs are imposed or a negative outlook emerges, the market could decline significantly.
Therefore, despite the positive tax changes, the market's direction ultimately depends on international developments and the major sectors responsible to them.
Regards
Yogesh Verma 🙂
Stock Market is in Risk OnThe US market, as well as some assets, is in a risk-on mode.
Most assets have their own seasonality.
The chart above shows one of them:
In recent years, in the period July-September, a correction began on the US market.
A number of macro indicators also speak in favor of a correction and that it is overdue.
Risk appetite according to Morgan Stanley research has reached a historical maximum
Although seasonality does not guarantee a correction right here and now, but at least it gives reason to think about reducing long positions
We are not positive about TeslaThe impact of tariffs and expiring EV credits is expected to pressure future US deliveries and regulatory credit revenue in the near term
Elon Musk: Well, we're in this weird transition period where we will lose a lot of incentives in the US. Slab incentives actually in many other parts of the world. But we'll lose them in the US. Across all of it at the relatively early stages of autonomy. On the other hand, autonomy is most advanced and most available from a regulatory standpoint in the US. Does that mean we could have a few rough quarters? Yeah. We probably could have a few rough quarters. I'm not saying that we will, but we could. Q4, Q1, maybe Q2.
Revenue -12% y/y ( decline for the first time in 10 years)!!!
EPS 0,27 $ agj vs 0,39 $ estimated
FCF -89% y/y but still positive ( just 146 M$)
CAPEX for 2025 increased
EBITDA dropped by 7.8%.
Price to Sales 12,7
P/B 14
Expensive
We expect declining of the stock price to 210 $
And, yes, many still regard Tesla as a car manufacturer, but this is not a correct view of the company. Later in our blog we will touch on the question of how to correctly look at the brainchild of Elon Musk.
Flexi Cap Funds vs Multi Cap Funds – What’s the Difference?Hello Traders!
When it comes to equity mutual funds, many investors get confused between Flexi Cap and Multi Cap funds. Both invest across large, mid, and small-cap stocks, but there’s a key difference in how they are managed. Let’s break it down in simple words.
What are Multi Cap Funds?
Multi Cap Funds are required by SEBI rules to invest a minimum of 25% each in large-cap, mid-cap, and small-cap stocks.
This means:
They are compulsory diversified .
Even if small caps are risky at the moment, the fund manager must still hold at least 25% exposure.
Good for investors who want fixed diversification across all categories.
What are Flexi Cap Funds?
Flexi Cap Funds, as the name suggests, have full flexibility. The fund manager can invest in large, mid, or small-cap in any proportion, depending on market conditions.
This means:
No fixed rule for allocation.
The fund manager can go 70% large-cap in volatile times or shift more to small/mid-caps when opportunities are strong.
Good for investors who trust the fund manager’s judgment.
Key Differences You Should Know
Flexibility: Multi Cap = fixed allocation, Flexi Cap = flexible allocation.
Risk Level: Multi Cap has balanced risk due to compulsory exposure. Flexi Cap risk depends on manager’s calls.
Return Potential: Flexi Cap may deliver better returns in the hands of a skilled manager, but also comes with higher dependency on their decisions.
Investor Type: Multi Cap suits investors wanting rule-based diversification. Flexi Cap suits investors comfortable with dynamic allocation.
Rahul’s Tip:
If you want steady exposure across all market caps, Multi Cap funds are safer. But if you believe in the fund manager’s ability and want more flexibility, Flexi Cap funds can give you better opportunities.
Conclusion:
Both categories have their place in a portfolio. The choice depends on your risk appetite and trust in active fund management.
Remember, what matters most is not just category, but consistent performance and fund manager track record.
If this post cleared your confusion, like it, share your view in the comments, and follow for more simple investing insights!