#Mtar tech 10-12% coming #Mtar tech 10-12% coming , forming pattern ..smallcap index gaining rebound
use 2200 as stoploss with tgt upto 10-12%
after that new level will be initiated
Beyond Technical Analysis
How News Drives Price Action and Trading DecisionsThe Role of Stock Market News in Trading
Stock market news refers to all information that can impact the valuation, performance, or perception of companies, sectors, or the broader economy. This includes corporate announcements, economic data releases, central bank decisions, geopolitical events, policy changes, and global financial developments. Markets are forward-looking, meaning prices often move based not only on current news but also on expectations of future outcomes.
When news is released, traders quickly reassess risk and reward. Positive news can trigger buying interest, while negative news can spark selling pressure. In highly liquid markets, this reaction can occur within seconds, driven by institutional traders, algorithms, and high-frequency trading systems. Retail traders often react slightly later, which is why understanding news flow is critical to avoid emotional or late entries.
Types of Stock Market News That Affect Trading
One of the most important categories is economic news. This includes data such as GDP growth, inflation numbers, interest rates, employment reports, industrial production, and consumer confidence. For example, higher-than-expected inflation may lead traders to anticipate interest rate hikes, causing selling pressure in equity markets. Conversely, strong economic growth data may boost confidence and push stock prices higher.
Corporate news is another major driver. Quarterly earnings results, revenue guidance, mergers and acquisitions, management changes, share buybacks, and dividend announcements directly affect individual stocks. A company beating earnings expectations often experiences a sharp price rise, while missing estimates can lead to steep declines. Traders closely monitor earnings seasons because volatility tends to increase significantly during these periods.
Central bank and policy-related news has a broad market impact. Decisions by central banks such as interest rate changes, liquidity measures, or policy statements can influence entire indices. In India, announcements from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) affect banking, real estate, and rate-sensitive sectors. Globally, policies from the US Federal Reserve often impact emerging markets, currencies, and capital flows.
Geopolitical and global news also plays a significant role. Wars, trade tensions, sanctions, elections, and diplomatic developments can cause uncertainty, leading to risk-off behavior in markets. During such times, traders often shift money into safer assets, while equity markets may experience sharp swings.
How News Impacts Market Psychology
Stock market news does not affect prices only through facts; it also influences trader psychology. Markets are driven by fear, greed, hope, and uncertainty. Positive news can create optimism and fear of missing out (FOMO), pushing prices higher than fundamentals might justify in the short term. Negative news can trigger panic selling, even if the long-term impact is limited.
This psychological reaction often leads to overreactions. Skilled traders understand that the first move after news may not always be the best opportunity. Sometimes, prices spike sharply and then retrace as the market digests the information more rationally. Recognizing this behavior helps traders avoid chasing trades and instead wait for confirmation.
News Trading vs Technical Trading
News trading and technical trading are often seen as separate approaches, but in reality, they are deeply connected. News provides the catalyst, while technical analysis shows how price reacts to that catalyst. A strong resistance level may break only after positive news, confirming a bullish breakout. Similarly, bad news near a support zone may cause a breakdown, accelerating a downtrend.
Intraday traders often use news to anticipate volatility and then rely on charts for precise entries and exits. Swing traders may use news to confirm the direction of a trend, while long-term investors use it to reassess fundamentals. The key is not to trade news blindly but to combine it with market structure, volume, and risk management.
Challenges of Trading Based on News
While news creates opportunities, it also carries risks. One major challenge is speed. Institutional traders and algorithms react faster than retail traders, which means the initial move may already be over by the time many traders act. Another challenge is misinterpretation. News headlines can be misleading, and the market reaction may differ from what logic suggests.
There is also the risk of false news or rumors, which can cause temporary price spikes. Traders who react without confirmation may get trapped when prices reverse. Additionally, markets sometimes move in the opposite direction of news due to prior expectations already being priced in. For example, good news may lead to selling if the market expected even better results.
Managing Risk During News-Based Trading
Risk management becomes even more important when trading around news. Volatility can increase spreads, trigger slippage, and hit stop-loss orders quickly. Traders should reduce position size, avoid overleveraging, and be prepared for sudden price swings. Using predefined stop-loss levels and sticking to a trading plan helps protect capital during uncertain conditions.
Some traders prefer to avoid trading during major news releases, while others specialize in news-driven strategies. Both approaches are valid, as long as the trader understands their risk tolerance and skill level.
Importance of Staying Informed
Successful traders maintain a habit of staying informed through reliable sources such as financial news platforms, exchange announcements, and official economic calendars. However, information overload can be harmful. The goal is not to follow every headline but to focus on news that is relevant to the markets and instruments being traded.
Understanding the context of news is equally important. A single data point should be viewed within the broader economic and market environment. This helps traders make balanced decisions rather than reacting emotionally.
Conclusion
Stock market news is a powerful force in trading, shaping price movements, market sentiment, and volatility. Whether it is economic data, corporate earnings, policy decisions, or global events, news acts as a catalyst that drives market behavior. For traders, the key lies in understanding not just the news itself, but how the market reacts to it.
By combining news awareness with technical analysis, disciplined risk management, and emotional control, traders can turn information into opportunity. Instead of fearing news-driven volatility, skilled traders learn to respect it, prepare for it, and use it wisely as part of a well-rounded trading strategy.
BAJFINANCE 1 Week Time Frame 📍 Current Price (Approx)
₹1,015 – ₹1,018 range on NSE as of latest close.
📊 Weekly Timeframe Levels (Support & Resistance)
🔹 Weekly Pivot‑Based Levels
(Using weekly pivot calculations — more relevant for weekly timeframe traders)
Resistance
R1: ~₹1,004 – ₹1,018
R2: ~₹1,018 – ₹1,034
R3: ~₹1,034 – ₹1,042
Pivot Zone / Mid
Weekly Pivot: ~₹988 – ₹992
Support
S1: ~₹973 – ₹986
S2: ~₹957 – ₹973
S3: ~₹943 – ₹957
📌 Key Weekly Range: approximately ₹973 – ₹1,042.
Daily analysis: NIFTY 15.12.2025A mixed sentiment is there for Nifty. Although the fall in the morning has filled Friday's gap, prices are expected to fill today's gap as well. But for any buy, a retest of support is suggested.
Levels are mostly for intraday purposes, except for the sell-side 25660sh range.
Contra bet: Praveg LtdIntroduction:
Praveg Communications (India) Limited, formed in 2016 through the merger of Praveg Communications Limited and Sword and Shield Pharma Limited, is an advertising company specializing in Exhibition and Event Management. Its main business segments include Events, Exhibitions & Hospitality, which accounts for 83% of revenue, and Advertising, contributing 17%. The company operates 15 eco-responsible luxury resorts with over 710 rooms in key Indian locations and manages additional hotel rooms in partnership with state governments. Its Events division has organized over 1,000 events and 2,000 exhibitions globally. In 2024, Praveg acquired a 51% stake in two advertising firms for Rs. 22 Cr., expanding its advertising portfolio across various media. Notable clients include GSPC and Bharat Petroleum, and recent partnerships include collaborations for major events and hospitality improvements with companies like Mahindra Holidays.
Fundamentals:
Market Cap: ₹ 763 Cr.;
Stock P/E: - 👎;
ROCE: 6.59% 👎; ROE: 4.44% 👎;
Dividend Payout: 16.3 👍%
3 Years Sales Growth: 55% 👍;
3 Years Compounded Profit Growth: 11% 👎;
3 Years Stock Price CAGR: 3% 👎;
3 Years Return on Equity: 9% 👎;
Technicals:
Resistance levels: 308, 351, 401, 510
Support levels: 269, 253
Praveg is trading near 9 EMA(Orange Line) and 21 EMA (Black Line) and below 50 EMA (Blue Line) and 200 EMA (Pink Link).
The stock has short-term profitability issues despite growth due to Rapid expansion, Rising costs, Project delays, Promoter holding dip, ARR fluctuation, etc.
However, the stock has Strong Financial Momentum with FY25 Total Income: ₹174.4 Cr (up from ₹94.5 Cr) and FY25 Net Profit: ₹16.1 Cr (vs ₹12.9 Cr)
The management is confident that FY26 will see better margins & more stable revenue as new properties mature.
The company has the backing of GoI in promoting Lakshadweep tourism through Increased flight frequencies and Permission issues have resolved to a great extent.
Avid investor ready for short term pain and long term gain can consider the stock.
NIFTY 50 – Price Action & Market Structure AnalysisCurrent Price: ~26,050
Market Context: Post-rally consolidation near ATH supply
🔹 Higher Timeframe (Weekly) Structure
NIFTY remains in a primary bullish market structure on the weekly timeframe.
The index has consistently respected Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL) since the March reversal.
Price is currently consolidating below a clearly defined weekly supply zone near 26,300–26,500, indicating distribution rather than reversal.
No weekly Break of Structure (BOS) to the downside has occurred yet — bullish structure remains intact.
Key Weekly Levels
Weekly Supply / Resistance: 26,300 – 26,500
Weekly Demand / Support: 25,200 – 25,000
Major HTF Demand: 24,400 – 24,000
🔹 Daily Timeframe – Internal Structure
After the strong impulsive leg up, price entered a range-bound corrective phase.
A Minor Market Structure Shift (MSS) occurred on the daily chart, confirming short-term weakness, not a trend reversal.
Price is trading inside a premium zone, suggesting limited upside without deeper consolidation.
Multiple Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) below remain unmitigated — increasing probability of a pullback.
Daily Levels of Interest
Immediate Resistance: 26,200 – 26,350
Range Support: 25,750 – 25,600
Daily Demand Zone: 25,400 – 25,200
Invalidation Level (Bullish): Daily close below 25,200
🔹 Market Scenarios
Scenario 1 – Healthy Bullish Continuation
Price retraces into 25,400–25,200 demand
Liquidity sweep + bullish displacement
Continuation toward 26,600+
Scenario 2 – Extended Consolidation
Range persists between 25,600–26,300
Ideal environment for mean-reversion & intraday trading
Scenario 3 – Deeper Correction (Low Probability)
Weekly close below 25,000
Opens path toward 24,400 HTF demand
🔹 Trading Bias
Bias: Bullish on dips, cautious near highs
Environment: Distribution / consolidation
Strategy Preference: Buy at HTF demand, avoid chasing highs
📌 Conclusion
NIFTY is not bearish, but overextended in the short term. The current price action suggests smart money digestion, not distribution breakdown. Patience is required for high-probability entries at discounted levels.
NIFTY 50 | Bullish Structure vs Bearish Candles — What Next?Pure Price Action & Volume Study
Index: NIFTY 50
Timeframe: Weekly
Method: Price Action + Volume
🔍 Market Structure
On the weekly timeframe, NIFTY 50 continues to form a VCP (Volatility Contraction Pattern) — a structurally bullish setup that generally supports higher prices once resolved correctly.
However, recent candle behaviour introduces a clear warning sign.
🕯️ Candlestick + Volume Analysis
The last two weekly candles are Hanging Man formations. Both candles printed with identical weekly volumes (~1.23B). Hanging Man is a reversal pattern when it appears near resistance
Important clarity:
Hanging Man ≠ Hammer
Hammer forms near support (bullish)
Hanging Man forms near resistance (potential weakness)
This suggests supply entering the market despite a bullish broader structure.
⚖️ How to Read the Conflict
Chart pattern: Bullish (VCP intact)
Candlestick signal: Bearish (Hanging Man + matching volume)
When structure and candles diverge, markets often choose sideways or corrective price action before the next directional move.
📉 Probable Price Path
There is a reasonable probability of:
A move back toward 25,700 (low of the recent weekly candle)
Or a deeper retracement into the nearest weekly support zone around 25,300
This pullback could help form a small rounding base, strengthening the existing VCP before another attempt toward 26,000
📊 Bias & Key Levels
View: Bearish → Sideways
Bullish only if:
Price breaks and sustains above ATH 26,325
Preferably with a strong weekly body candle, not a wick-based breakout
Until that happens, upside remains unconfirmed.
🧠 Final Thought
This is a classic “structure vs signal” situation:
Bullish patterns need bearish candles to get resolved first.
Patience is part of price action.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only. Not a trading or investment recommendation. Markets are risky—always manage risk and position size carefully.
👍 If this idea added value, boost it, follow for more pure price-action studies, and comment with the next stock or index you’d like analysed.
BTCUSD preparing for fallBTCUSD daily RSI could not cross 50 mark and going downwards, while its 4H rSI has started going below daily RSI, it indicates a fall is close.
Expecting a fall below its earlier support and in range of 70-76k
Minda Corp: Structure Over PredictionMinda Corp has spent a long time facing rejections at higher levels, which is clearly visible on the left side of the chart. Those rallies failed because price could not sustain above structure.
The recent phase shows a change in behaviour. Instead of sharp rejections, price is now holding above key support and compressing inside a rising structure. This kind of tightening usually reflects indecision before expansion.
At this stage, the chart is not about prediction or targets. It is about waiting for price to confirm direction. A clean breakout and hold above the structure would signal continuation, while failure to hold support would invalidate the setup.
This study focuses on how price reacts at important levels, not on guessing future moves.
What separates my approach from others is that I don’t chase moves — I wait for price behaviour to confirm them.
CELLO – Clear Range Behaviour, Buyers Active at Lower BandAfter a strong fall from the top, CELLO has stopped trending and has shifted into a controlled range. Price is now moving between a clearly defined upper boundary and a rising lower boundary.
Multiple reactions can be seen on both sides of this structure. Every time price moves toward the lower line, buyers step in and defend that zone. At the same time, whenever price reaches the upper boundary, selling pressure appears and price reacts back down.
This repeated behaviour shows that the market is respecting this range and trading based on structure rather than momentum. The recent bounce from the lower boundary again confirms that buyers are still active at support.
However, price is still below resistance. Until it breaks and sustains above the upper line, upside strength is not confirmed. This makes the current zone more about observation and patience than aggressive action.
This chart is a good example of why blindly buying without confirmation can be risky. Understanding where price is reacting — and where it is getting rejected — provides better clarity than anticipation.
NAVA 1 Week Time Frame 📌 Current Price Snapshot
Last traded / recent price: ~₹560–₹567 on NSE/BSE (varies by source; live changes intraday)
52‑week range: ₹356 (low) to ₹735 (high)
📊 Weekly Timeframe Levels (Support & Resistance)
For a 1‑week (weekly candle) view you want levels that matter over the entire trading week — not just intraday:
🔹 Weekly Pivot & Key Levels (from pivot and technical sources)
Immediate Pivot (weekly): ~₹552–₹563
Weekly Resistance Zones:
R1: ~₹566–₹570 (near recent swing highs)
R2: ~₹587–₹590 zone
R3: ~₹600+ if momentum persists
Weekly Support Zones:
S1: ~₹531–₹535 (first strong support)
S2: ~₹517–₹520 (secondary weekly support)
S3: ~₹496–₹500 (deeper support if selling extends)
Summary of weekly levels:
📈 Bullish break‑above: ₹570–₹590
🧊 Neutral pivot zone: ₹552–₹565
🛑 Bearish below: ₹531 → ₹500
Every Trader Has a Profitable Setup-Few Have the Mind to ExecuteHello Traders!
Most traders spend years searching for the perfect strategy.
They change indicators, timeframes, mentors, and markets again and again.
But here’s the uncomfortable truth most people avoid:
The problem is rarely the setup.
The problem is execution.
1. A Good Setup Is Useless Without Discipline
Many traders already have a setup that works on paper.
Backtesting shows profits, but live trading tells a different story.
Why? Because discipline disappears when real money is on the line.
A setup only works when it is followed exactly as designed.
2. Fear and Doubt Kill Execution
Fear makes traders exit early.
Doubt makes traders skip valid entries.
Overthinking makes traders add unnecessary confirmations.
The setup did not fail.
The mind interfered.
3. Traders Change Strategies to Escape Responsibility
After a loss, it feels easier to blame the strategy.
Switching setups feels productive, but it avoids the real issue.
Consistency cannot be built on constant change.
Execution improves only when responsibility is accepted.
4. The Market Rewards Repetition, Not Intelligence
You do not need to be smarter than the market.
You need to execute the same rules again and again.
Edge comes from repetition, not creativity.
Professional traders win because they do fewer things, not more.
5. The Real Edge Is Psychological Stability
Sticking to rules during losing streaks.
Not increasing risk after winning streaks.
Treating every trade as just one of many.
This is what separates consistent traders from emotional traders.
Rahul’s Tip:
Before searching for a new strategy, ask yourself one honest question:
“Did I execute my current setup exactly as planned for the last 50 trades?”
Most traders already know the answer.
Conclusion:
Every trader eventually finds a setup that can make money.
Very few traders develop the mindset required to execute it calmly, repeatedly, and without emotion.
Profitability begins the day you stop changing strategies and start mastering execution.
If this post resonated with your trading journey, like it, share your thoughts in the comments, and follow for more mindset driven trading education.
ASHOKLEY Price Action1. Trend Bullish
2. Breakout & reveral set up
3. Resistance turning into support
4. Higher protected lows through out the trend and still continues
MUTHOOTFIN Price ActionTrend - Bullish
Strength - Strong
Set up - Breakout
- Very small consolidation and price breaking out faster as trend is stronger
NATIONALUM Price ActionNational Aluminium Company Ltd (NATIONALUM) closed today at ₹213.87. The stock rallied strongly, rising nearly 5% during the session and trading in a range between ₹204.20 and ₹215.40. Today’s large volume signals solid investor participation and bullish momentum, while the price sits near the upper end of the daily band.
Technically, NATIONALUM remains in a clear short-term uptrend, outperforming its sector with recent moving average crossovers strengthening the bullish case. The key support is now located near ₹204, which was today’s low, and resistance lies at ₹224—the stock’s upper circuit limit. Momentum indicators are in positive territory, reflecting strong buying interest, but short-term traders should be aware that overbought readings could invite some consolidation or profit booking.
On the fundamental side, the company’s financials show robust quarterly revenue and profit growth, with strong operating margins and minimal debt. As a major aluminum producer, NATIONALUM benefits from stable commodity prices and high export demand. Overall sentiment is upbeat, suggesting potential for further gains if market conditions remain supportive and the company sustains its operational efficiency.
360ONE – Strong Resistance Above, Support Still HoldingIn this chart, price has tried multiple times to move above the same upper zone, but each time it failed to sustain there. After these attempts, price came down sharply with large gap-down moves. This clearly shows strong selling pressure and supply at that level.
On the downside, price is still respecting the rising support line. Whenever price moves lower, buyers are stepping in near this support and pushing it back up. So currently, price is trapped between strong resistance above and rising support below.
This puts the stock in a decision phase. Strength will be confirmed only if price is able to move above the resistance and hold there. Until that happens, caution is needed.
This is also a good example of why one should avoid blindly buying near resistance. It is important to understand the price action and the situation on the chart, rather than taking impulsive decisions. Reading how price behaves at key levels always gives better clarity.
I share only selective charts. The focus is on understanding price behaviour, not blind entries. Quality over quantity.
Unlocking Market Insights through Volume AnalysisTrading in financial markets is often considered both an art and a science. Among the various analytical tools traders use, volume analysis stands out as a crucial method for understanding market behavior, predicting price movements, and making informed trading decisions. Volume refers to the total number of shares, contracts, or units of an asset traded during a specific time frame. By combining price action with volume, traders can gain insights that are often invisible through price analysis alone.
Understanding Volume in Trading
Volume is essentially a measure of market activity. High trading volume indicates strong participation and interest in a particular security, whereas low volume suggests weak participation. Importantly, volume is not just a number; it reflects the strength or weakness of price movements.
High volume with rising prices typically indicates strong buying interest and can signal the continuation of an upward trend.
High volume with falling prices often signals panic selling or strong bearish sentiment.
Low volume with rising or falling prices may indicate weak conviction, suggesting that the trend may not be sustainable.
Volume analysis is used by both short-term traders, such as day traders and swing traders, and long-term investors. Understanding how to read volume can improve entry and exit timing, risk management, and the identification of market trends.
The Role of Volume in Technical Analysis
Technical analysts use volume to confirm chart patterns, trend reversals, and breakouts. Some of the key methods include:
Volume Confirmation of Trends
A strong trend is often accompanied by increasing volume. For instance, in an uptrend, volume should increase as prices move higher and decrease during minor pullbacks. Conversely, in a downtrend, volume tends to rise on declines and shrink during temporary rallies. This confirms the trend’s legitimacy.
Volume and Breakouts
Breakouts are more reliable when accompanied by a significant increase in volume. If a stock breaks a resistance level on low volume, it could indicate a false breakout. Traders often wait for a spike in volume to confirm the move before entering a position.
Volume Oscillators and Indicators
Several technical indicators help analyze volume, including the On-Balance Volume (OBV), Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), and Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP). These tools combine price and volume to provide insights about buying and selling pressure.
Volume in Reversal Patterns
Volume plays a key role in identifying reversals. For example, in a double-top pattern, the volume often declines on the second peak, signaling weakening bullish momentum. Similarly, in a head-and-shoulders pattern, rising volume on the breakout confirms the reversal.
Practical Applications of Volume Trading
Volume analysis is not just theoretical; it has practical implications in real trading:
Identifying Institutional Activity: Large institutions, such as mutual funds and hedge funds, leave traces in volume patterns. Sudden spikes in volume without significant news often indicate institutional buying or selling. Retail traders can use this information to anticipate larger market moves.
Improving Entry and Exit Points: Traders can use volume to fine-tune their entry and exit points. Entering trades on low-volume pullbacks in an uptrend reduces risk, while exiting when volume indicates trend exhaustion can protect profits.
Detecting Market Sentiment: Volume reflects market psychology. Rising volume on up moves indicates confidence and optimism, while increasing volume on down moves reflects fear and panic. Traders can gauge sentiment and adjust strategies accordingly.
Supporting Risk Management: Volume can help traders validate stop-loss levels. For example, if a price breaches a support level on high volume, it is more likely a genuine breakdown than a low-volume spike, guiding traders to exit positions promptly.
Volume in Different Market Conditions
Volume analysis can vary depending on market conditions:
Trending Markets: Volume helps confirm the strength of a trend. Traders look for volume expansion during trend continuation and contraction during consolidation periods.
Range-Bound Markets: In sideways markets, volume analysis can identify accumulation (buying) and distribution (selling). A sudden surge in volume at a support or resistance level can hint at a future breakout.
Volatile Markets: During high volatility, volume spikes are common. Traders need to differentiate between normal high-volume fluctuations and significant market moves by considering context and historical volume levels.
Advanced Volume Techniques
Professional traders often combine volume with other tools for a deeper analysis:
Volume Price Trend (VPT): This technique combines price changes with volume to evaluate the strength of a trend.
Volume Spread Analysis (VSA): VSA examines the relationship between volume, price spread, and closing price to detect accumulation or distribution by smart money.
Volume Profiles: These provide a graphical representation of traded volume at different price levels, helping traders identify key support and resistance zones.
Challenges in Trading with Volume
While volume is a powerful tool, it is not foolproof:
Delayed Data: Volume analysis works best with up-to-date and accurate data. Delays in reporting can mislead traders.
Market Manipulation: In some markets, volume can be artificially inflated through wash trades or spoofing, potentially giving false signals.
Context Matters: Volume should always be analyzed in conjunction with price action, market news, and broader economic factors.
Conclusion
Trading with volume is a cornerstone of market analysis. By understanding the relationship between price and volume, traders can gain deeper insights into market dynamics, identify trends, anticipate reversals, and manage risk more effectively. Volume analysis provides a window into market sentiment, revealing the actions of major players and helping traders align their strategies accordingly. While it requires careful observation and practice, mastering volume trading can significantly improve both the accuracy and confidence of trading decisions. For any trader seeking to combine technical analysis with practical market intelligence, volume is an indispensable tool that illuminates the hidden currents beneath price movements.
UPL Trend Is Clear, Now Waiting for ConfirmationUPL has been moving inside a clear rising channel for a long time. Each time price comes near the lower line, buyers step in. Each time price reaches the upper line, some profit booking appears. This behaviour has repeated again and again, showing that the trend is healthy and well controlled.
Recently, price moved close to the upper part of the channel and then started moving sideways. Instead of falling back sharply, it is holding near resistance. This tells us that sellers are not strong enough to push price down, and buyers are still active.
Right now, price is moving in a small tight range near the top of the channel. This phase is important. A strong move usually comes after such tight consolidation, but the direction becomes clear only after a proper breakout and hold.
So instead of guessing, the better approach here is to wait for clear breakout confirmation. Once price shows strength by moving out of this range and sustaining, the next move becomes easier to understand.
This chart is about reading behaviour, not predicting.
As long as the channel holds, the trend remains intact — patience is the key here.
Bank Nifty: Hanging Man Confirmed Despite Fed CutLast week, Bank Nifty printed a valid Hanging Man at the Wave (5) zone, signaling potential trend exhaustion near a key Fibonacci cluster. The setup was deliberately framed as a warning, with confirmation dependent on a close below the candle’s real body.
That condition has now been met.
This week delivered a weekly close below the Hanging Man’s real body , providing bearish confirmation per classical candlestick principles. Notably, this occurred despite supportive macro developments , including a Fed rate cut mid-week , which failed to revive upside momentum. Similar to the earlier RBI action, bullish news once again struggled to extend the rally.
This combination of technical confirmation and macro tailwinds failing to lift price reinforces the view that Wave (5) topping risk is now active . While the candlestick signal confirms reversal risk, the depth and structure of the corrective phase will be determined by how price evolves from here.
Link to last week’s analysis for full context:
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
Pidilite Industries Contraction Inside a Rising StructurePidilite has been moving inside an upward channel for many months. The lower line has given support every time price came near it, and the upper line has acted as resistance.
In the last few candles, price again bounced from the support line, showing buyers are still active at that level. Now price is coming close to the point where both trendlines meet. Once price moves out of this tight zone, a bigger move can happen.
Follow for more clean structural charts and pattern-based studies.
ACC | On the Verge of a Breakdown? | Daily Chart | Bearish Bias
📉 Summary
ACC has been compressing into a descending structure, forming Lower Highs since 24 April 2025, while holding Equal Lows near ₹1770 since 03 March 2025.
Repeated tests (4+ times) of the same support zone have reduced its strength, hinting at a potential breakdown setup.
Price action suggests sellers are absorbing demand every time the stock revisits this level — a classic bearish continuation structure.
📌 Structure Breakdown
1. Lower Highs (24/04/2025 onward)
- Each rally has been weaker than the previous one - Shows sustained supply and lack of aggressive buyers.
2. Equal Lows at ₹1770 (03/03/2025 onward)
- Multiple tests → Support weakening.
Hammer-type candles here indicate buying attempts, not strength — repeated hammers near support often show demand exhaustion, not reversal.
3. No Recent Swing Lows
- Due to tight compression, reference swings are taken from the 2023 structure, which aligns well with projected breakdown targets.
📉 Trade View: Bearish (Daily Time Frame)
🔻 Breakdown Conditions (Mandatory)
Enter ONLY IF:
✔ Price closes below ₹1770
✔ Breakdown candle is a Thick Red Marubozu
✔ Volume is higher than the 20-day average
✔ Close is below support, not just an intraday wick violation
This ensures you avoid a fake breakdown and enter only on momentum.
🎯 Bearish Targets (Based on 2023 swing levels)
1️⃣ ₹1730 – Initial target
2️⃣ ₹1680 – Next demand zone
3️⃣ ₹1570 – Major swing support from 2023; final target
Targets align with earlier swing reaction zones where price historically paused or reversed.
🛑 Stop Loss
Stop Loss:
High of the Breakdown Candle
(not the previous swing high — too far, reduces R:R)
This keeps the trade logical, tight, and rule-based.
📉 Final Thoughts
- ACC is nearing a classic descending compression pattern.
A decisive break below ₹1770 could open a clean downside move toward the mentioned targets.
But no breakdown → no trade.
Wait for confirmation — momentum + volume + structure alignment.
📝 Disclaimer
This analysis is created purely for educational and informational purposes and reflects my personal view based on simple price-action rules.
It is NOT investment advice.
Please do your own research or consult a registered financial advisor before taking any trade.
Trading and investing in the stock market involve risk. Manage your position size and follow strict stop losses.
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👍 Boost the idea
⭐ Follow me on TradingView for more price-action based setups
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Bitcoin Weekly Structure Alternating Expansions and Deep CorrecThis chart highlights how Bitcoin has moved through a repeating long-term structure of strong expansions followed by deep corrective phases. Each major upward advance has been followed by a sizeable retracement, often returning toward or interacting with the long-term rising structure line. This rhythm of expansion and contraction has appeared multiple times across the chart and forms the basis of the broader market structure shown here.
The recent price behaviour continues to reflect this pattern. After a sharp expansion, price entered a broad corrective phase, marked on the chart. The two projected paths on the right are not forecasts but visual guides illustrating how price has interacted with this long-term structure during previous cycles. They show possible ways in which the asset may continue to develop, either by forming a base above the structure or by retesting it more directly before attempting a continuation. These paths reflect the historical behaviour visible on the weekly time frame.
Beyond technical structure, the broader market environment around Bitcoin has also evolved. Over recent years, several major institutional players — including global asset managers such as BlackRock and Fidelity, as well as insurance companies, pension funds, and research divisions within firms like JPMorgan — have begun integrating Bitcoin into regulated products, custody frameworks, or macro-level analysis. This does not imply a specific directional outcome, but it does indicate a shift in how the asset is evaluated within traditional financial systems.
As institutions increasingly reference Bitcoin in discussions of long-duration value, diversification frameworks, and digital hard assets, the narrative of Bitcoin as an emerging “digital store of value” has gained more recognition. This institutional perspective forms part of the long-term context within which the price structure continues to evolve.
This idea focuses on the multi-cycle behaviour of expansions and corrections, the repeated interaction with the rising structural line, and the gradual institutional shift that frames Bitcoin’s development as a maturing digital asset class.
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