BHARTIARTL Price ActionBharti Airtel is trading near ₹1,887 as of September 8, 2025, maintaining its leadership position in India’s telecom sector with robust price performance and sector-beating fundamentals. The company’s market capitalization has surpassed ₹11 lakh crore, and it continues to deliver consistent growth in sales, profits, and shareholder value.
The most recent quarterly results showed net profit rising 43% year-on-year to ₹5,948 crore, fueled by a 28% surge in consolidated revenue. Average revenue per user (ARPU) climbed to ₹250, underlying the continued strength in data consumption and premium pricing. Operating profit margins have expanded, with latest EBITDA at ₹28,167 crore and an impressive 56.9% margin.
On the technical front, the stock trades above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a sustained bullish trajectory. Return on equity is currently 23%, a result of effective capital allocation and profitability. Despite a slight dip in promoter shareholding, institutional confidence remains high with solid trading volumes.
Bharti Airtel remains focused on network expansion, digital services, and international growth, particularly its profitable Africa operations. Its sound balance sheet, controlled debt, and resilient free cash flow provide ample scope for ongoing investments and dividends. The outlook remains strongly positive, with the company well-positioned to capture further growth in India’s expanding communications market.
Beyond Technical Analysis
GMDC - Chart of The Week, Testing Trendline, Change of PolarityNSE:GMDCLTD has a beautiful structure on the Weekly Timeframe to qualify for my Chart of the Week idea. It saw Decent Above-Average Volumes and confirmed a Change of Polarity and is Now Testing the Falling Trendline with RSI and MACD trending upwards.
About:
NSE:GMDCLTD is primarily engaged in 2 sectors, i.e. mining and power. Its projects include Lignite, Bauxite, Fluorspar, Multi-Metal, Manganese, Power, Wind and Solar.
Trade Setup:
It could be a good Swing Trade if it breaks the trendline and the Change of Polarity is Still Intact.
If the Trade gets activated after breaking the trendline, then keep this Week's Low as the Stop Loss or Even Take RSI and MACD as a Stop Loss Signal.
📌Thank you for exploring my idea! I hope you found it valuable.
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✍️COMMENT below with your views.
Meanwhile, check out my other stock ideas on the right side until this trade is activated. I would love your feedback.
Disclaimer: "I am not SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND INVESTMENT ADVISER."
This analysis is intended solely for informational and educational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
What is ADR/GDR – How Indian Companies Get Foreign Investors!Hello Traders!
You may have heard terms like ADR and GDR when companies talk about raising money abroad. These instruments allow Indian companies to get international investors without directly listing on foreign stock exchanges. Let’s understand them in simple words.
What is an ADR?
ADR stands for American Depository Receipt .
It is a certificate issued by a US bank that represents shares of a foreign company (like an Indian company). These ADRs trade on US stock exchanges just like normal US stocks.
Example: Infosys and Wipro have ADRs listed in the US.
Advantage: US investors can buy Indian companies without dealing with Indian exchanges.
What is a GDR?
GDR stands for Global Depository Receipt .
It works the same way as ADR, but instead of being limited to the US, GDRs are listed on global exchanges like London or Luxembourg.
Example: Many Indian companies raise funds through GDRs in Europe.
Advantage: Gives access to a larger pool of foreign investors.
Why Do Companies Issue ADR/GDR?
Access to Foreign Capital: Helps Indian companies raise funds from global investors.
Better Visibility: Being listed abroad increases global recognition of the company.
Diversified Investor Base: Attracts institutional investors who may not invest directly in Indian markets.
Liquidity: Allows more trading activity and easier buying/selling internationally.
Rahul’s Tip:
ADR/GDR listings are a sign that a company wants to expand globally and attract foreign capital. But as an investor, always check if the company is fundamentally strong before getting influenced by the “global listing” tag.
Conclusion:
ADR and GDR are simple tools that connect Indian companies with foreign investors.
While ADRs are limited to the US, GDRs open doors to global markets.
For long-term investors, these instruments show how Indian companies are scaling globally.
If this post made ADR/GDR clear for you, like it, share your thoughts in comments, and follow for more market education in simple language!
NIFTY Not Moving Despite GST Cut | Sensex, BN & Market AnalysisThe government's decision to reduce taxes is a positive factor for market sentiment, yet the market has not become fully bullish or reached new highs. This raises the question as to why market is struggling to go up.
Well, the answer lies in the weightage of the Nifty index.
Nifty's Sector Weightage
Approximately 60% of the Nifty's weight is carried by just three sectors:
* Financial Services : Makes up 36.82% of the Nifty's weight.
* Oil, Gas and Fuels (Majorly Reliance) : Accounts for 9.90% of the weight.
* IT Sector : Holds around 10.51% of the weight.
The remaining 40% of the Nifty is composed of many other sectors, including metals, pharma, and FMCG etc
Impact of GST Reforms
The recent Goods and Services Tax (GST) reforms were primarily aimed at the consumption sector to provide relief to the middle class. While the tax benefits are a positive for the consumption sector, its overall weight in the Nifty is only around 7%.
In contrast, the banking sector, which has around 37% weight, did not receive any direct benefits from the GST rate cuts except Insurance Companies. This is a key reason why the banking sector and by extension the market, has not turned fully positive.
Similarly, the IT sector is already largely exempt from GST, so the recent rate cuts had no direct impact on it, preventing it from driving the market up.
The oil and gas sector, dominated by Reliance, also presents a mixed picture. While some areas like Reliance's FMCG and solar projects are positively impacted by the new rules, the government has actually increased taxes on oil and gas, which makes up a significant portion of Reliance's revenue and profit. Furthermore, international tensions continue to affect the revenue and profits of the oil and gas sector.
The Role of International Factors
These three major sectors—banking, IT, and oil and gas—are all directly related to international factors like global situations and the political tensions between India and the US. The market is in a "wait and watch" mode as it awaits the outcome of potential future US actions, such as imposing tariffs. If the US government eases its stance on tariffs, the market is likely to celebrate and move upward. However, if any new tariffs are imposed or a negative outlook emerges, the market could decline significantly.
Therefore, despite the positive tax changes, the market's direction ultimately depends on international developments and the major sectors responsible to them.
Regards
Yogesh Verma 🙂
Stock Market is in Risk OnThe US market, as well as some assets, is in a risk-on mode.
Most assets have their own seasonality.
The chart above shows one of them:
In recent years, in the period July-September, a correction began on the US market.
A number of macro indicators also speak in favor of a correction and that it is overdue.
Risk appetite according to Morgan Stanley research has reached a historical maximum
Although seasonality does not guarantee a correction right here and now, but at least it gives reason to think about reducing long positions
We are not positive about TeslaThe impact of tariffs and expiring EV credits is expected to pressure future US deliveries and regulatory credit revenue in the near term
Elon Musk: Well, we're in this weird transition period where we will lose a lot of incentives in the US. Slab incentives actually in many other parts of the world. But we'll lose them in the US. Across all of it at the relatively early stages of autonomy. On the other hand, autonomy is most advanced and most available from a regulatory standpoint in the US. Does that mean we could have a few rough quarters? Yeah. We probably could have a few rough quarters. I'm not saying that we will, but we could. Q4, Q1, maybe Q2.
Revenue -12% y/y ( decline for the first time in 10 years)!!!
EPS 0,27 $ agj vs 0,39 $ estimated
FCF -89% y/y but still positive ( just 146 M$)
CAPEX for 2025 increased
EBITDA dropped by 7.8%.
Price to Sales 12,7
P/B 14
Expensive
We expect declining of the stock price to 210 $
And, yes, many still regard Tesla as a car manufacturer, but this is not a correct view of the company. Later in our blog we will touch on the question of how to correctly look at the brainchild of Elon Musk.
Flexi Cap Funds vs Multi Cap Funds – What’s the Difference?Hello Traders!
When it comes to equity mutual funds, many investors get confused between Flexi Cap and Multi Cap funds. Both invest across large, mid, and small-cap stocks, but there’s a key difference in how they are managed. Let’s break it down in simple words.
What are Multi Cap Funds?
Multi Cap Funds are required by SEBI rules to invest a minimum of 25% each in large-cap, mid-cap, and small-cap stocks.
This means:
They are compulsory diversified .
Even if small caps are risky at the moment, the fund manager must still hold at least 25% exposure.
Good for investors who want fixed diversification across all categories.
What are Flexi Cap Funds?
Flexi Cap Funds, as the name suggests, have full flexibility. The fund manager can invest in large, mid, or small-cap in any proportion, depending on market conditions.
This means:
No fixed rule for allocation.
The fund manager can go 70% large-cap in volatile times or shift more to small/mid-caps when opportunities are strong.
Good for investors who trust the fund manager’s judgment.
Key Differences You Should Know
Flexibility: Multi Cap = fixed allocation, Flexi Cap = flexible allocation.
Risk Level: Multi Cap has balanced risk due to compulsory exposure. Flexi Cap risk depends on manager’s calls.
Return Potential: Flexi Cap may deliver better returns in the hands of a skilled manager, but also comes with higher dependency on their decisions.
Investor Type: Multi Cap suits investors wanting rule-based diversification. Flexi Cap suits investors comfortable with dynamic allocation.
Rahul’s Tip:
If you want steady exposure across all market caps, Multi Cap funds are safer. But if you believe in the fund manager’s ability and want more flexibility, Flexi Cap funds can give you better opportunities.
Conclusion:
Both categories have their place in a portfolio. The choice depends on your risk appetite and trust in active fund management.
Remember, what matters most is not just category, but consistent performance and fund manager track record.
If this post cleared your confusion, like it, share your view in the comments, and follow for more simple investing insights!
Part 6 Learn Institutional Trading Factors Affecting Option Prices
Option premiums are influenced by multiple factors:
Underlying Price: Moves directly impact intrinsic value.
Time to Expiry: Longer duration = higher premium (more time value).
Volatility: Higher volatility = higher premium (more uncertainty).
Interest Rates & Dividends: Minor factors but can influence pricing.
The famous Black-Scholes Model is often used to calculate theoretical option prices.
Basic Option Strategies for Beginners
Here are some simple strategies you can start with:
1. Buying Calls
Use when you expect the stock/index to rise.
Risk: Premium loss.
Reward: Unlimited upside.
2. Buying Puts
Use when you expect the stock/index to fall.
Risk: Premium loss.
Reward: Significant downside profits.
3. Covered Call
Own a stock + Sell a call option on it.
Generates income but caps upside.
4. Protective Put
Buy stock + Buy a put option.
Acts like insurance for your stock portfolio.
5. Straddle (Advanced Beginner)
Buy a call and put with the same strike and expiry.
Profits from big moves in either direction.
Risk: Both premiums lost if market stays flat.
SOLAR IND 1HRSWING TRADE
- EARN WITH ME DAILY 10K-20K –
SOLAR IND Looking good for Downside..
When it break level 13835 and sustain.. it will go Downside...
SELL @ 13835
Target
1st 13663
2nd 13533
FNO
SOLARIND SEP FUT – LOT 4 (Qty-300)
SOLARIND 14000 PE – LOT 4 (Qty-300)
Enjoy trading traders.. Keep add this STOCK in your watch list..
Big Investor are welcome..
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Option Trading The Mechanics of Option Pricing
1. Intrinsic Value vs. Time Value
Intrinsic Value: The profit if the option were exercised now.
Time Value: The extra value due to remaining time until expiry.
Option Premium = Intrinsic Value + Time Value.
2. Moneyness of Options
In the Money (ITM): Immediate profit if exercised.
At the Money (ATM): Strike ≈ Current price.
Out of the Money (OTM): No immediate profit, only time value.
3. Option Greeks (The DNA of Options)
Delta: Sensitivity of option price to underlying movement.
Gamma: Sensitivity of Delta to underlying movement.
Theta: Time decay – options lose value as expiry nears.
Vega: Sensitivity to volatility.
Rho: Sensitivity to interest rates.
Understanding Greeks is critical for advanced traders.
Risks in Option Trading
Options are not risk-free.
Premium Decay (Theta Risk): Options lose value daily.
Volatility Risk: Implied volatility crush can hurt positions.
Liquidity Risk: Wide bid-ask spreads increase costs.
Assignment Risk: Writers can be forced to fulfill contracts.
Unlimited Losses: Naked option selling is dangerous.
Sensex Structure Analysis & Trade Plan : 8th September🔎 Multi-Timeframe Market Structure
4H Chart
Price is still respecting the descending channel.
Recent rejection came right from the channel supply + OB zone ~81,600–81,800.
Support demand holds near 80,600–80,750, which has been tested multiple times.
Market is consolidating between 80,600–81,600.
Bias: Range-bound inside larger downtrend. Unless 81,800 breaks, structure remains corrective.
1H Chart
Clear swing high rejection at 81,600.
Price retraced to FVG + demand block around 80,700–80,800, and bounced.
Currently trading near 81,100–81,200 (mid-channel zone).
Liquidity pools visible above 81,600 (short-trap potential).
Bias: Intraday bullish bias from demand zones, but still capped by channel supply.
15M Chart
Short-term MSB → BOS → Retest seen near 80,700.
Price is consolidating just below minor resistance 81,200–81,300.
Imbalances (FVG) left around 80,900–81,000 may get filled if market dips.
Bias: Short-term bullish continuation possible, but supply zones overhead are heavy.
📊 Trade Plan (Next Session)
Bullish Scenario (if demand holds 80,700–80,900)
Entry: 80,900–81,000 (on retest/fill of imbalance).
Targets:
TP1 → 81,300 (minor resistance).
TP2 → 81,600–81,800 (channel supply + OB).
Stop: Below 80,650.
Bearish Scenario (if rejection continues at 81,300–81,600)
Entry: 81,200–81,400 zone (look for rejection candle).
Targets:
TP1 → 80,900.
TP2 → 80,600–80,500 (major demand).
Stop: Above 81,650.
🎯 Summary
Intraday bias: Mildly bullish until 81,600–81,800 is tested.
Swing bias: Still bearish inside descending channel unless a clear breakout >81,800–82,000 occurs.
Best trade idea: Buy dips around 80,900–81,000 with TP towards 81,600, then watch for reversal signs.
Banknifty Structure Analysis & Trade Plan: 8th September 🔎 Market Structure Analysis
4H Chart
Trend: Price has been in a falling channel but is attempting recovery inside a rising wedge.
Resistance: 54,350–54,450 zone (supply area + previous rejection).
Support: 53,600–53,800 (demand block + swing low).
Bias: Neutral-to-bullish short term, but the rising wedge hints at possible rejection near supply.
1H Chart
Price Action: Price bounced back from ~53,800 demand and is now consolidating around 54,000–54,150.
Fair Value Gaps (FVG): Filled around 54,050–54,150; next liquidity zone is above 54,300.
Key Levels:
Support: 53,800
Resistance: 54,350
Structure: Lower highs capped at supply, but still defending short-term trendline.
15M Chart
Intraday Structure: Market printed a Break of Structure (BOS) upwards from demand, retested 54,000, and is hovering just above trendline.
Short-Term Zones:
Demand: 53,950–54,050
Supply: 54,300–54,400
Bias: If demand holds, can push toward resistance; failure at 54,000 flips bias bearish.
🎯 Trade Plan for Monday (8th Sep)
Bullish Scenario (Long)
Entry: On 15M bullish rejection from 53,950–54,050 demand zone.
Target 1: 54,300 (previous supply).
Target 2: 54,450 (extended resistance on 4H).
Stoploss: Below 53,850.
Bearish Scenario (Short)
Entry: On rejection wicks or bearish structure shift near 54,300–54,400 supply zone.
Target 1: 54,050 (mid-level support).
Target 2: 53,800 (major demand).
Stoploss: Above 54,500.
⚖️ Summary
Intraday Bias: Range-bound between 53,800–54,400.
Breakout Levels:
Above 54,450 → opens up 54,800–55,000.
Below 53,800 → slide toward 53,400.
👉 My view: For Monday, bias stays sideways-to-slightly bullish until 54,300–54,400. Best strategy is fade supply & demand (buy dips near 53,950–54,050, short near 54,350–54,400).
NETWEB Price actionNetweb Technologies (NETWEB) is trading at ₹1,947.40 as of July 11, 2025. The stock has shown a strong short-term recovery, up about 7.4% in the last session and nearly 6.8% over the past week, but it remains down by over 25% in the past six months. The 52-week high is ₹3,060 and the low is ₹1,251.55.
Valuation-wise, NETWEB is trading at a high price-to-earnings ratio (around 90–96) and a price-to-book ratio near 20, indicating a premium valuation. The company’s market capitalization is approximately ₹11,000 crore. Promoter holding has slightly decreased in the recent quarter.
For the near term, technical targets suggest resistance around ₹2,000–2,040 and support in the ₹1,750–1,850 range. Analyst forecasts for the next year place price targets between ₹1,824 and ₹2,805.
Fundamentally, the company is considered overvalued at current levels, despite strong recent profit growth. The stock’s premium valuation and recent volatility suggest caution for new investors, with further upside dependent on continued earnings momentum and broader market sentiment.
Nifty Structure Analysis & Trade Plan: 8th September 🔎 Market Structure Analysis
4H Chart
Price is moving inside a rising channel, but repeatedly rejecting around 24,840–24,880 supply zone.
Recent rejection shows short-term weakness, but the structure is still holding higher-lows around 24,650–24,670 (support).
Key imbalance (FVG) visible near 24,650, which could act as a demand zone.
Bias: Sideways-to-bullish unless 24,650 is broken.
1H Chart
Price attempted a breakout above 24,840, failed, and pulled back into the 24,720–24,750 zone.
This zone coincides with channel support + minor demand.
As long as 24,700 holds, structure favors bounce continuation.
Break below 24,700 = short-term bearish with downside open to 24,560.
Bias: Neutral with bullish tilt (unless 24,700 fails).
15M Chart
Micro-structure shows failed breakout → liquidity grab above 24,840, followed by BOS (break of structure) downward.
Price is consolidating just above support trendline.
Short-term buyers defending 24,700–24,720.
Bias: Expect volatility early session — direction depends on 24,700 hold/break.
📌 Trade Plan for 8th September (Monday)
Long Scenario (preferred bias)
Entry Zone: 24,700–24,720 support
Targets:
T1: 24,820
T2: 24,880 (channel high / supply)
T3: 25,000+ (if breakout holds)
Stop Loss: Below 24,650
Short Scenario (if breakdown happens)
Trigger: Break & close below 24,700 on 15M/1H
Entry Zone: 24,690–24,710 (retest entry)
Targets:
T1: 24,560
T2: 24,450
T3: 24,300 (major demand)
Stop Loss: Above 24,760
🎯 Summary
Above 24,700 → Look for longs into 24,880–25,000.
Below 24,700 → Shorts open till 24,560–24,300.
Expect whipsaws around open; best is to wait for 15M structure confirmation.
The Art of Position SizingIntroduction: Why Position Sizing is the Silent Weapon
When most people think about trading success, they picture things like stock picking, finding the next multibagger, or timing the market perfectly. But the truth is, none of these alone will make you a consistently profitable trader. The difference between traders who survive and thrive versus those who blow up their accounts often comes down to one thing: position sizing.
Position sizing is the art and science of deciding how much to risk on a trade. It’s not glamorous. It doesn’t make headlines like “XYZ stock doubled in a week.” But it’s the most powerful tool you have for controlling risk, managing emotions, and growing capital over the long term.
Think of trading like sailing. The market is the ocean — unpredictable, sometimes calm, sometimes stormy. Your strategy is the ship. But position sizing? That’s the steering wheel. Without it, even the strongest ship can sink.
In this article, we’ll dive deep into the art of position sizing, explore different methods, psychological aspects, and real-world applications, and by the end, you’ll understand why smart traders say: “It’s not about being right, it’s about surviving long enough to grow.”
What is Position Sizing?
In simple terms, position sizing answers the question:
“How many shares (or contracts/lots) should I buy or sell on this trade?”
Let’s take an example. Suppose you have ₹1,00,000 as trading capital. You see a stock trading at ₹500 and want to buy. Should you buy 20 shares, 100 shares, or go all-in with 200 shares? The answer depends on:
Your risk tolerance per trade (how much you’re comfortable losing if it goes wrong).
Your stop-loss level (the price at which you’ll exit if the trade fails).
Market conditions (volatility, liquidity, trend strength).
Two traders can take the exact same trade setup — same entry and exit — but one could lose 50% of his account, while the other loses just 1%. That’s the power of position sizing.
The Role of Risk Management in Position Sizing
Before we dive into methods, let’s lay the foundation: risk management.
The golden rule in trading: Never risk more than a small fraction of your capital on a single trade.
Commonly used: 1% Rule or 2% Rule.
Risk 1% of your account per trade.
Example: If you have ₹1,00,000, risk only ₹1,000 per trade.
Now, here’s the beauty: By limiting risk per trade, even if you face a losing streak, you can still survive.
Imagine you risk 10% of your capital per trade. After just 10 losing trades, your account is wiped out. But if you risk 1% per trade, you’d need 100 consecutive losing trades to lose everything. That’s survival power.
Position Sizing Methods
There’s no one-size-fits-all approach. Traders use different methods depending on style, psychology, and goals. Let’s go through the major ones:
1. Fixed Dollar Method
Decide a fixed amount to risk on every trade.
Example: “I’ll risk ₹2,000 per trade no matter what.”
Simple but not flexible. Works for beginners.
2. Fixed Percentage Method
Risk a set percentage of account equity per trade.
Example: 2% risk rule. If account = ₹1,00,000 → risk = ₹2,000.
Dynamic: As account grows, risk amount grows.
3. Kelly Criterion
A mathematical formula to maximize long-term growth by balancing win rate and risk-reward.
Powerful, but aggressive.
Example: If you win 60% of trades with 2:1 reward/risk, Kelly suggests a certain % of capital to risk.
Many traders use half-Kelly for safety.
4. Volatility-Based Position Sizing
Position size adjusts to stock volatility.
Use ATR (Average True Range) or standard deviation.
More volatile stocks → smaller size.
Less volatile → larger size.
Helps normalize risk across different stocks.
5. Risk/Reward-Driven Sizing
Position based on expected reward vs. risk.
Example: If reward:risk is 3:1, you may size slightly larger.
Ensures high probability trades get priority.
6. Scaling In & Out
Scaling in: Enter gradually, adding positions as trade confirms.
Scaling out: Reduce position as profit builds, locking gains.
Useful in trending or uncertain markets.
Mathematical Foundations
Let’s go step by step:
Formula:
Position Size = (Account Risk per Trade) ÷ (Trade Risk per Share)
Account Risk per Trade = % of account × account size.
Trade Risk per Share = Entry Price – Stop Loss.
Example:
Account = ₹1,00,000.
Risk per trade = 2% = ₹2,000.
Stock entry = ₹500, Stop loss = ₹490 → Risk per share = ₹10.
Position size = ₹2,000 ÷ ₹10 = 200 shares.
This formula keeps every trade within safe limits, regardless of stock price.
Psychology of Position Sizing
This is where most traders fail. Even with formulas, emotions creep in:
Greed: “This setup looks perfect, let me double my size.”
Fear: “I just had three losses; let me reduce my size drastically.”
Overconfidence: After a winning streak, traders often oversize.
Revenge trading: Going all-in after losses to “win it back.”
The art of position sizing isn’t just math — it’s discipline. Sticking to your rules despite emotions is what separates pros from amateurs.
Position Sizing in Different Trading Styles
Day Trading: Smaller time frames, quick exits. Use tight stop-loss → often larger position sizes.
Swing Trading: Wider stop-loss, overnight risks. Position size smaller to balance.
Long-Term Investing: Position sizing matters less per trade, but diversification becomes key.
Options & Futures: Leverage complicates sizing. Need margin-based calculations and higher discipline.
Adapting Position Sizing to Market Conditions
High Volatility Markets: Reduce position size. Survive turbulence.
Calm/Trending Markets: Increase size cautiously to capture trends.
During Losing Streaks: Reduce size temporarily to preserve confidence and capital.
During Winning Streaks: Carefully increase size, but avoid over-leverage.
Position Sizing Mistakes to Avoid
All-in mentality.
One bad trade can end your career.
Averaging down blindly.
Throwing good money after bad.
Ignoring correlations.
Buying 3 different banking stocks = concentration risk.
Sizing based on gut feel, not rules.
Leads to inconsistency.
Case Studies & Practical Examples
The Blow-Up Trader
Started with ₹2,00,000. Risked 20% per trade. After 5 losses, wiped out.
Lesson: Poor position sizing = fast death.
The Survivor Trader
Started with ₹2,00,000. Risked 1% per trade = ₹2,000.
Even after 10 losses, only down 10%. Account intact.
Lesson: Survival > glory.
The Professional Fund Manager
Doesn’t risk more than 0.5%–1% per trade.
Manages billions, but each trade is just a small piece.
Lesson: Longevity and risk control matter most.
Position Sizing as an Art
So far, we’ve discussed the science — formulas, rules, risk percentages. But in real life, position sizing is also an art.
It requires judgment — when to size up, when to stay small.
It requires psychological control — sticking to plans.
It requires adaptability — markets change, volatility changes.
Great traders think of position sizing like a volume knob: turning risk up and down depending on conditions, but never letting it break the system.
Conclusion
At its core, position sizing is about survival first, profits second. You can have the best strategy in the world, but without proper sizing, you’ll blow up before you can reap the rewards.
The art of position sizing is:
Mathematical discipline (formulas, risk per trade).
Psychological discipline (controlling greed/fear).
Strategic flexibility (adapting to markets).
So next time you’re about to hit “buy” or “sell,” ask yourself:
How much am I risking?
Is this within my rules?
If I lose, can I survive to trade another day?
Because in trading, the ultimate goal isn’t to win one big trade.
The ultimate goal is to stay in the game long enough to let compounding work its magic.
CNXIT - Head & Shoulder in progress on weekly chartsThe Indian IT sector is in a terrible state. The formation of a head and shoulder pattern on a weekly chart is a disastrous indication of worse times ahead. While NSE:TCS fired 15k employees in the recent past, the future seems dimmer. A similar pattern can be observed in almost all IT stocks. Caution is the way forward. All the long positions in IT must be doubly checked and closely monitored.
Disclaimer: The idea is for educational and informational purposes only and must not be construed as advice to buy/sell. Please consult your investment advisor before making a financial decision. Investments are subject to market risks!
Navin Fluorine: Supply Zone Breakout Sparks RallyTechnical Analysis
Navin Fluorine Ltd has demonstrated an extraordinary long-term growth trajectory, showcasing a super bullish rally from below ₹100 levels to the current ₹5,000 zone - representing an exceptional 50x growth over the years.
The ₹4,700-₹5,000 zone has been acting as a formidable supply zone over the past year, creating multiple rejection points. However, the game-changing moment arrived with very strong positive Q1 FY26 results that provided the fundamental catalyst needed for a decisive breakout.
With this confirmation, the stock successfully broke above the supply zone and surged to ₹5,444 before pulling back to current levels of ₹4,843. The key now is whether the previous supply zone transforms into a demand zone with bullish candlestick pattern confirmations.
Entry Strategy: Enter on any dips toward ₹4,700-₹4,800 range, ensuring the old supply zone acts as new demand zone.
Targets:
Target 1: ₹5,500
Target 2: ₹6,000
Target 3: ₹6,500
Stop Losses:
Critical Support: ₹4,700-₹5,000 (previous supply zone, now key demand zone)
If stock doesn't sustain above this zone, no more expectations on this stock.
Q1 FY26 Financial Highlights (vs Q4 FY25 & Q1 FY25)
Total Income: ₹725 Cr (↑ +3% QoQ from ₹701 Cr; ↑ +38% YoY from ₹524 Cr)
Total Expenses: ₹519 Cr (↓ -1% QoQ from ₹522 Cr; ↑ +23% YoY from ₹423 Cr)
Operating Profit: ₹207 Cr (↑ +16% QoQ from ₹179 Cr; ↑ +107% YoY from ₹100 Cr)
Profit Before Tax: ₹155 Cr (↑ +22% QoQ from ₹127 Cr; ↑ +128% YoY from ₹68 Cr)
Profit After Tax: ₹117 Cr (↑ +23% QoQ from ₹95 Cr; ↑ +129% YoY from ₹51 Cr)
Diluted EPS: ₹23.62 (↑ +23% QoQ from ₹19.15; ↑ +129% YoY from ₹10.32)
Fundamental Highlights
Navin Fluorine delivered spectacular Q1 FY26 performance with PAT soaring 129% YoY to ₹117 crore, driven by robust revenue growth of 38.5% to ₹725.40 crore. The company is recognized among the fastest-growing specialty chemical stocks with impressive financial metrics.
Market cap stands at ₹24,011 crore (up 42.1% in 1 year) with promoter holding at 27.1%. The stock is trading above all major moving averages (5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, 200-day), indicating robust upward trend momentum.
Financial strength is evident with 3-year average ROE of 16.7% and RoCE of 19.8%, while revenue grew at CAGR of 18.8% and net profit at 31.6% over the past three years. The company maintains healthy debt-to-equity ratio of 0.56.
The global fluorochemicals industry is expected to grow to $29.61 billion by 2027 at CAGR of 5.06%, driven by surging demand from semiconductors, batteries, and electronic components. Specialty chemicals segment is projected to grow at 12% CAGR between 2020-2025.
Stock has outperformed its sector and reached new 52-week highs, with consistent gains demonstrating strong investor confidence in the specialty chemicals leader's growth prospects.
Conclusion
Navin Fluorine's exceptional 129% YoY PAT surge and successful breakout above ₹5,000 supply zone creates compelling technical and fundamental convergence. The 50x long-term growth story, combined with 42.1% annual market cap increase and industry-leading ROE of 16.7%, validates the breakout thesis. Current consolidation near ₹4,843 offers attractive entry for targeting ₹6,500 levels. Critical support at ₹4,700-₹5,000 zone must hold for sustained bullish trajectory in the specialty chemicals space.
Disclaimer: lnkd.in
UltraTech: Two-Decade Bull Rally Reaches New SummitTechnical Analysis
UltraTech Cement presents one of the most spectacular long-term growth stories in Indian equity markets. Having observed this stock for two decades, the journey from ₹250 levels to ₹12,000 represents a phenomenal 48x growth over 20 years - a testament to consistent value creation.
The ₹12,000 level acted as formidable resistance from July 2024 to July 2025, creating a year-long consolidation phase. This resistance was finally breached in July 2025, coinciding with confirmation of positive YoY quarterly results that provided the fundamental catalyst needed for the breakout.
Currently trading at ₹12,700, the stock has successfully broken above the psychological ₹12,000 barrier. This breakout, supported by strong fundamental performance, opens up the path for the next leg of the bull rally.
Entry Strategy: Enter on any dips toward ₹12,200-₹12,300 range, ensuring the ₹12,000 level holds as new support.
Targets:
Target 1: ₹13,000
Target 2: ₹13,500
Target 3: ₹14,000
Stop Losses:
Critical Support: ₹12,000 (previous resistance, now key support)
If the market doesn't sustain above ₹12,000 level, no more expectations on this stock.
Q1 FY26 Financial Highlights (vs Q4 FY25 & Q1 FY25)
Total Income: ₹21,275 Cr (↓ -8% QoQ from ₹23,063 Cr; ↑ +13% YoY from ₹18,819 Cr)
Total Expenses: ₹16,869 Cr (↓ -9% QoQ from ₹18,456 Cr; ↑ +7% YoY from ₹15,801 Cr)
Operating Profit: ₹4,406 Cr (↓ -4% QoQ from ₹4,608 Cr; ↑ +46% YoY from ₹3,017 Cr)
Profit Before Tax: ₹3,008 Cr (↓ -3% QoQ from ₹3,101 Cr; ↑ +62% YoY from ₹1,857 Cr)
Profit After Tax: ₹2,221 Cr (↓ -10% QoQ from ₹2,475 Cr; ↑ +49% YoY from ₹1,493 Cr)
Diluted EPS: ₹75.54 (↓ -10% QoQ from ₹84.23; ↑ +46% YoY from ₹51.78)
Fundamental Highlights
UltraTech Cement delivered exceptional Q1 FY26 performance with consolidated net profit surging 49% YoY to ₹2,221 crore, driven by strong volume growth of 9.7% YoY to 36.83 million tonnes. Income rose 13% with EBITDA per MT increasing ₹337.
Market cap stands at ₹3,75,630 crore (up 11.1% in 1 year) with stable promoter holding at 59.2%. The company increased grey cement capacity by 3.5 MTPA in Q1 FY26, bringing total capacity to 192.26 MTPA.
UltraTech has allocated ₹10,000 crore capex for FY26 to bolster capacity and energy efficiency initiatives. Company achieved over 1 GW renewable power installations milestone and expects 7-8% sustainable volume growth.
UltraTech is on track to become world's top cement seller outside China with operational footprint of 34 integrated units, 30 grinding units, and 9 bulk terminals across India. In FY25 alone, the company added 42.6 MTPA capacity, accounting for 55% of the entire sector's expansion.
Strategic positioning includes targeting 209.3 MTPA output by FY27 and maintaining strong operational metrics with focus on sustainability through renewable energy integration.
Conclusion
UltraTech's remarkable 20-year bull run from ₹250 to ₹12,700, combined with 49% YoY PAT growth and successful ₹12,000 resistance breakout, validates the long-term growth thesis. The 192.26 MTPA capacity milestone, ₹10,000 crore FY26 capex, and 1 GW renewable energy achievement position the company as industry leader. Technical breakout toward ₹14,000 appears feasible provided ₹12,000 support holds. Strong fundamentals justify premium valuation in cement sector leadership.
Disclaimer: lnkd.in
Part 3 Learn Institutional Trading Option Pricing & Premiums
The premium (price of option) is determined by many factors:
Intrinsic Value – Difference between current stock price and strike price. Example: If stock = ₹200, strike = ₹180 (call), intrinsic value = ₹20.
Time Value – Extra premium because of time left until expiry. More time = higher premium.
Volatility – Higher volatility increases premium (uncertainty = higher value).
Interest rates & dividends – Also affect option pricing slightly.
The most famous model for pricing options is the Black-Scholes Model, used worldwide.
Moneyness (ITM, ATM, OTM)
Options are classified as:
In The Money (ITM): Option already has intrinsic value. (Example: Stock = ₹250, Call strike = ₹240).
At The Money (ATM): Stock price = strike price.
Out of The Money (OTM): Option has no intrinsic value yet. (Example: Stock = ₹250, Call strike = ₹280).
OTM options are cheaper, but riskier. ITM options are costlier, but safer.
Sensex Structure Analysis & Trade Plan: 5th September 🔎 Market Structure Analysis
4H Chart
Price is still trading inside a descending channel.
The recent rally into the 81,500–81,800 supply/FVG zone was rejected sharply.
Current structure shows a lower high forming, which aligns with the overall bearish channel.
Key support sits at 80,600–80,800, and if broken, deeper liquidity around 80,200–80,400 may be targeted.
1H Chart
Short-term push attempted to break the supply at 81,300–81,500 but failed.
Structure has shifted with a BOS (Break of Structure) confirming bearish intent.
There is a small FVG around 81,100–81,200, which may act as supply on any retest.
Demand is stacked between 80,600–80,800.
15M Chart
Clear rejection candle after liquidity grab above 81,300.
Multiple bearish BOS confirm intraday control with lower highs and lower lows.
Micro-FVG and OB formed between 81,100–81,200 could serve as sell-on-rally zones.
📊 Trade Plan for 5th September
Primary Bias: Bearish (Sell-on-Rise)
Short Entry Zone 1 (Aggressive): 81,100–81,200 (FVG/OB retest).
Short Entry Zone 2 (Safe): 81,300–81,500 (liquidity + strong supply).
Targets:
T1: 80,800
T2: 80,600
T3: 80,200
Stop Loss: Above 81,500 (conservative) or 81,650 (swing high).
Alternative Scenario (Bullish Reversal if support holds)
If price sustains above 81,300 with volume, structure will shift bullish.
Long Entry: Retest of 81,100–81,200.
Targets:
T1: 81,500
T2: 81,800
Stop Loss: Below 80,900.
✅ Summary:
Bias: Bearish → short rallies into 81,100–81,500 zones.
Key Support: 80,600–80,800 (watch if broken or defended).
Invalidation: Clean breakout above 81,500.
Banknifty Structure Analysis & Trade Plan: 5th September 🔎 Bank Nifty Market Structure
4H Chart
Price is trading around 54,100, after rejecting the 54,400–54,500 supply zone (FVG).
A rising channel structure is visible, but today’s rejection candle shows weakness.
Strong demand still lies at 53,600–53,400 zone (green block).
👉 Overall bias: Neutral to mildly bearish unless 54,400 is reclaimed convincingly.
1H Chart
Market structure shows:
A recent Market Structure Shift (MSS) at ~54,200.
Current price is hovering inside a demand block / FVG around 54,000–53,950.
Upside supply remains intact at 54,400–54,500.
Break of 53,950 could accelerate selling pressure.
👉 Short-term structure: Range between 53,950–54,400.
15M Chart
Intraday price action shows repeated rejections from 54,300–54,400.
Price is consolidating above a micro demand zone at 54,000.
Clean liquidity gap remains below at 53,800–53,600.
👉 Intraday tone: Bearish bias if 54,000 breaks, otherwise chop.
📌 Trade Plan for 5th September
Scenario 1: Bearish Continuation
Trigger: Breakdown below 54,000 with momentum.
Entry: Short on 53,980–54,000 break.
Targets:
T1 = 53,800
T2 = 53,600 (major demand zone)
Stop Loss: 54,200 (above supply/FVG).
Scenario 2: Bullish Relief Rally
Trigger: Strong rejection candle from 54,000–53,950 zone.
Entry: Long above 54,100.
Targets:
T1 = 54,300
T2 = 54,400–54,500 (supply zone, book profits here)
Stop Loss: 53,900.
Key Notes
Market is in a tight range (53,950–54,400).
Best trades will come from range extremes: short at supply, long at demand.
Avoid chasing in the middle zone; let price confirm with structure.
✅ Bias for Tomorrow (5th Sept):
Slightly bearish unless Bank Nifty reclaims 54,400+. High-probability short trades if 54,000 breaks.