BTCUSD Short Opportunity – Bearish Channel Resistance TestPair: BTCUSD
Timeframe: 4H
I’m planning a short position on Bitcoin based on this well-defined descending channel structure.
🔹 Setup Explanation:
Price has been respecting a downward-sloping channel, with multiple touches at both the upper and lower bounds.
Currently, BTC is testing the upper trendline resistance of this channel near the $108,000–$109,000 area.
This area also aligns with prior supply zones where strong selling pressure emerged.
The recent impulsive move up appears overextended, increasing the likelihood of a technical pullback.
🔹 Potential Reversal Area:
Upper channel boundary: ~108,500–109,000 USD
Confluence with previous horizontal resistance
Weak momentum candles forming near this resistance
🔹 Trade Plan:
Entry Zone: Between 108,000–109,000 (as price consolidates near the channel top)
Stop-Loss: Above 110,000 to protect against breakout and invalidation of the pattern
Target Zone:
First Target (TP1): 104,500 (gray support zone mid-channel)
Second Target (TP2): 97,000 (lower channel boundary)
🎯 Risk-to-Reward:
Targeting a 1:2 to 1:3 R:R, depending on execution
This means risking ~1,500–2,000 points for a potential reward of 4,000–10,000 points
🛡️ Important Notes:
Watch for strong bullish momentum or a clean breakout above 110,000—this invalidates the setup.
Confirm rejection with lower timeframe bearish signals (e.g., bearish engulfing or supply zone rejection).
Be prepared to trail stop after TP1 is hit to secure profits.
✅ Summary:
This setup aims to capitalize on the potential rejection from the upper boundary of a long-standing descending channel, expecting BTCUSD to retest the mid and lower range support zones.
