Geopolitical & US Macro WatchWhat Is Geopolitical & US Macro Watch?
This is a two-part term:
1. Geopolitical Watch
This refers to tracking and analyzing global political situations that can impact trade, oil, currency, defense, or investor confidence. Examples include:
Wars or conflicts (Ukraine-Russia, Israel-Gaza, China-Taiwan)
Global oil sanctions
Strategic alliances (e.g., BRICS+ expansion, NATO decisions)
Diplomatic tensions between countries
These events influence:
Crude oil prices
Foreign exchange rates
FII flows (Foreign Institutional Investment)
Global demand-supply outlooks
2. US Macro Watch
This focuses on tracking economic developments in the United States, the world's largest economy. Key areas to watch include:
Inflation reports (CPI, PCE)
US Federal Reserve interest rate decisions
Jobs data (non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate)
Retail sales, housing starts
US GDP growth
U.S. debt levels and political decisions on trade/tariffs
Because the US dollar is the world's reserve currency, and because Wall Street often sets the tone for global markets, these macro signals directly affect India’s equity market, bond yields, and rupee valuation.
🧠 Why Does This Matter to Indian Traders & Investors?
You may ask—“Why should I care about some news in the U.S. or Europe when I’m only buying shares of Indian companies?”
Here’s the reality:
Over 50% of the daily movement in Indian indices like Nifty and Sensex is now influenced by global cues.
Foreign investors (FIIs), who own a huge portion of Indian stocks, take buy/sell decisions based on global trends, not just local stories.
US interest rates affect where FIIs want to put their money—if US bonds are yielding more, they might pull out of India.
Crude oil, which India imports heavily, is priced globally—if a war breaks out, oil shoots up and hits inflation in India.
In short: What happens outside India often decides how India trades.
🔥 Major Geopolitical Risks in 2025
Let’s look at some real-world developments that have been shaking or supporting markets this year:
1. Russia-Ukraine Conflict (Still Ongoing)
Even in 2025, the war isn’t over.
It affects wheat prices, natural gas, and military spending globally.
India has been balancing ties with both Russia and the West, but disruptions affect commodity markets, logistics, and inflation.
2. Middle East Tensions (Gaza, Iran, Red Sea Attacks)
Ongoing conflicts have kept crude oil prices elevated.
Shipping through the Suez Canal and Red Sea has become riskier, increasing global logistics costs.
This directly affects India’s import bill, trade deficit, and rupee stability.
3. US–China Trade Friction
The US has imposed tech restrictions on China; China is retaliating.
If tensions escalate further, it will impact the global supply chain, especially for semiconductors, electronics, and electric vehicles.
Indian tech companies (like TCS, Wipro) may see ripple effects due to changes in global outsourcing dynamics.
4. Taiwan Risk
Any Chinese military action on Taiwan could be catastrophic for markets, especially in electronics and semiconductors.
Since semiconductors power everything from phones to EVs, even a threat here affects stocks globally.
📊 Key US Macro Trends Impacting Markets in 2025
1. US Inflation is Cooling, But Not Gone
After peaking in 2022, inflation has come down, but in 2025, it’s still sticky.
That means the Federal Reserve (US central bank) is not cutting rates as aggressively as markets hoped.
➡️ When the Fed keeps rates high:
US bond yields rise
FIIs pull money out of emerging markets like India
Nifty and Sensex feel the pressure
2. US Job Market Is Strong
A robust job market signals continued economic expansion, good for global demand.
This is why metals, IT, and manufacturing stocks in India rally when US jobs data is good.
3. The Fed’s Interest Rate Policy
The biggest global event each month is the Fed meeting.
If they cut rates, stocks rally globally.
If they pause or raise rates, money flows into safe assets like gold or the US dollar—hurting Indian equities.
Real-Time Example: July 2025
In July 2025, Indian markets have been:
Rallying due to strong US jobs data and earnings
Cautious due to potential Trump-era tariffs on countries buying Russian oil
Watching closely for US inflation print and Fed meeting signals
GIFT Nifty shows bullish strength in pre-market hours when the US ends green. But we’ve also seen sell-offs on days of oil spikes or war-related news.
🧭 How to Track These Developments (Even If You’re Busy)
Here’s a simple checklist for staying informed:
✅ Every Morning
Check GIFT Nifty
Read major global headlines (US data, oil prices, geopolitics)
Note the USDINR trend
Watch India VIX
✅ Every Week
Look at US job reports, inflation (CPI), and Fed speeches
Follow crude oil and gold charts
Track FII/DII activity
Keep an eye on shipping, metals, and defense-related stocks
✅ Final Thoughts
"Geopolitical & US Macro Watch" is not just a fancy term—it's a crucial lens for today’s markets. The biggest stock market moves often come not from company news but from macroeconomic surprises or global tensions.
In 2025, being globally aware gives you an edge:
You’ll avoid panic on news-driven crashes
You’ll better understand why your portfolio is up or down
You’ll identify trade setups ahead of others
👉 Think global, act local—that’s the new mantra for smart Indian investors.
If you want daily or weekly updates summarizing these events and their impact on Indian markets, let me know—I’ll be happy to prepare a custom watchlist or dashboard for you
Bitcon
Earnings in Focus Companies in the Spotlight
Reliance Industries (RIL)
Reliance’s results are among the most awaited in the Indian market. It touches almost every Indian household through its telecom (Jio), retail, and oil-to-chemicals arms.
In Q1, analysts expected strong year-on-year growth in profit, partly helped by a one-time gain from a stake sale.
Retail and digital segments were projected to post steady growth.
Oil-to-chemicals margins were expected to remain stable due to global energy price stabilization.
Since Reliance has a significant weight in both Nifty and Sensex, even a 2–3% move can swing the broader indices.
JSW Steel
JSW Steel posted stronger-than-expected operating profits. The volume growth was robust and pricing held steady despite global uncertainties.
Steel performance is considered a proxy for infrastructure and housing demand.
Better margins mean improved profitability outlook, which often lifts peer stocks like Tata Steel and SAIL too.
Wipro
Wipro surprised the street with a better-than-expected net profit growth and steady revenue.
This came after a few muted quarters, giving confidence to IT investors.
The firm also secured some large deals, which improved guidance.
When a Tier-1 IT company beats expectations, it often leads to a short-term sector-wide rally.
Axis Bank
Axis Bank reported a small decline in net profit due to an increase in provisions and asset quality slippage.
Markets reacted negatively, with the stock dropping more than 5%.
This raised some concerns for the entire banking sector, especially around retail loan delinquencies.
Bank earnings are carefully tracked for signs of economic health since they’re the first to show stress in the system.
Hindustan Zinc
Despite a year-on-year drop in profit, Hindustan Zinc beat market expectations.
The metal segment held up well.
Higher cost efficiency offset pricing pressure.
It shows that even in commodity-heavy businesses, efficiency and scale can drive earnings resilience.
3. 📈 How Markets React During Earnings
Earnings are one of the biggest catalysts for short-term market movements. Here’s how different market participants respond:
Retail Traders: Look for quick intraday or swing opportunities based on the reaction to earnings.
Institutional Investors: Focus more on guidance, margin outlook, and strategic plans.
FIIs & DIIs: Use results to rebalance portfolios across sectors.
This week, markets opened flat with mixed sector movements. Financials remained under pressure due to Axis Bank, while energy and metals were relatively stronger.
4. 🎯 Trading Strategies During Earnings Season
🔹 Intraday Traders:
Monitor stock-specific results.
A strong beat often results in gap-up opens, followed by either a continuation rally or profit-booking.
Misses often result in sharp selling pressure.
🔹 Swing Traders:
Look for strong earnings + bullish technical setup for 3–5 day momentum trades.
Weak earnings can be played with bearish options like puts or bear spreads.
🔹 Investors:
Focus on long-term stories where earnings confirm improving fundamentals.
Use dips in strong businesses as buying opportunities.
5. 💼 Sectoral Trends from Current Earnings
✅ IT Sector:
Wipro’s good performance and deal wins have created optimism.
If the rest of the IT majors follow suit, it may indicate a bottom in the tech cycle.
✅ Metals:
JSW Steel’s strong numbers confirm ongoing industrial demand.
Infra push and China’s restocking are adding tailwinds to global metal prices.
❌ Financials:
Axis Bank’s weaker asset quality is a concern.
Market will now look toward HDFC Bank, SBI, and ICICI Bank to see if this is a one-off or an emerging trend.
⚖️ FMCG & Consumer:
Awaited earnings from major players like HUL, Dabur, and Nestlé will show how rural and urban consumption are shaping up.
Margin expansion through easing input costs will be closely monitored.
6. 📊 Impact on Broader Indices
Nifty:
Reliance alone has over 10% weight in the index. A positive surprise there can lift Nifty meaningfully.
IT and metals also have significant representation, so results from Wipro and JSW Steel are important.
Bank Nifty:
Axis Bank’s fall dragged the index.
A recovery depends on upcoming results from ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank.
Sector Indices:
Nifty Metal may outperform if positive surprises continue.
Nifty IT needs more broad-based strength to reverse the downtrend.
7. 🧠 What Smart Money Is Watching
Institutional investors are focusing on:
Guidance for the rest of FY25
Cost management: Are companies protecting or growing their margins?
Volume growth: Are revenues rising due to real demand or just price hikes?
Loan growth and credit quality: Especially in the banking space
These insights help long-term investors identify early winners and avoid laggards.
8. 🧾 Key Takeaways for Traders & Investors
Earnings are the strongest short-term trigger in markets.
Reliance results can tilt the entire Nifty one way or the other.
IT is stabilizing, Metals are strong, Financials are shaky—sector rotation is visible.
Stay stock- and sector-specific rather than going fully index-based during earnings season.
9. ✅ Final Words
“Earnings in Focus” isn’t just a headline—it’s the heartbeat of market sentiment right now.
In a market driven by uncertainty (inflation, interest rates, global slowdown), real numbers from real companies matter more than ever. This is the time when:
Traders can catch powerful moves based on short-term surprises
Investors can spot trends and leaders early
Portfolio rebalancing decisions can be guided by facts, not emotions
Whether you’re in for a quick trade or a long-term position, understanding earnings and their market impact is essential.
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis for the Week of Jue 10 -June 16~~ Technical Analysis ~~
- Trend: Bitcoin is in a bullish trend on higher time frames (3-day and above), forming higher highs and higher lows. However, short-term signals are mixed, with some indicators suggesting consolidation or a potential pullback.
4-Hour Chart: Bullish, with the 50-day moving average (MA) sloping up, but the 200-day MA is sloping down since December 27, 2024, indicating a weaker short-term trend.
Daily Chart: Bullish, with the 50-day MA rising and below the current price, potentially acting as support. The 200-day MA has been rising since June 5, 2025, signalling a strong long-term trend.
Weekly Chart: Bullish, with the 50-day MA below the price and the 200-day MA sloping up since July 9, 2024.
Monthly Chart : Bullish which has a potential to hit All Time High
# Support, resistance and Targets marked in the chart for your reference
-- Disclaimer --
This analysis is based on recent technical data and market sentiment from web sources. It is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Trading involves high risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research or consult a SEBI-registered advisor before trading.
#Boost and comment will be highly appreciated
BTC#3: Will Bitcoin continue to increase? What to do when you mi🔥 🔥🔥 Plan BTC#2 Has gone as planned. Currently, the BTC price has surpassed the Key lever 1026xx. And is approaching the old peak. I will continue to plan to help everyone have a panoramic view to make trading decisions for themselves. 🔥 🔥🔥
1️⃣ **Fundamental analysis:**
📊 Information about Donald Trump's inauguration has contributed to promoting optimism for the electronic market.
🔴 In addition, the possibility of Trump announcing a strategic Bitcoin reserve will further boost the demand for BTC in the near future when other major countries will also launch corresponding strategies.
2️⃣ **Technical analysis:**
🔹 **Frame D**: You can see that BTC is still increasing very strongly. We still don't see any signs that the price line wants to adjust, which shows the very positive sentiment of the current market.
🔹 **H4 frame**: The bearish price structure has been broken as I analyzed in the previous article #2. Currently, the price has not had any correction. However, the price is also very close to the resistance zone above
🔹 **H1 frame**: There is not much difference compared to H4, it can be seen that although there are slight corrections, the price line is still showing that the bulls are still absolutely dominant
3️⃣ **Trading plan:**
⛔ Absolutely do not hold losses at this time. The price line increasing without signs of adjustment will further torture the trading psychology of traders trading against the trend. In addition, the price increases continuously without stopping will form a FOMO mentality for those who have missed the opportunity. However, if we set up a buy position here, it will be difficult for us to achieve the desired profit when the R:R ratio is too risky
✅ The current price zone is no longer suitable for setting up a position. My advice for you is to patiently wait for the next correction when the price returns to important support zones.
🚀 At the present time, if anyone has a good position in the 955xx area, we can completely wait for even greater profits.
💪 **Wish you successful trading!**
BTC - At Support once againAfter touching earlier predicted first target of 102 price has fallen more than expected and holding at previous proven support levels. In my view BTC is once again at support and some fresh buying or accumulation is visible. For whatever reason price could dance for big players to buy more at support levels. Its popular idea to buy back whatever was partially booked at 102 levels. we cannot avoid this and we might see partial selling above 102K again and buying below 97K. Higher the price move up most will keep booking profits and more the price move low more buying is the trend now. Jan is the month we are waiting for banana spike to take price to 125 or above. Hope it happens once new president takes charge in office. As days near to this even I expect more bullish move in BTC. I do not see WW3 in Jan 2025.
Bitcoin's Recent Surge and Potential OutlookBitcoin has experienced a significant surge in recent days, breaking through the $100,000 mark. This bullish momentum is evident on the daily chart, with the price forming higher highs and higher lows, a classic sign of an uptrend.
Potential Scenarios:
Continued Upward Momentum: If the current bullish trend persists, Bitcoin could continue to rally towards new all-time highs. Key resistance levels to watch include the psychological $110,000 and $120,000 levels.
Short-Term Correction: Given the overbought conditions, a short-term pullback to retest is possible. However, this could provide a buying opportunity for long-term investors.
Trading Strategies:
Long-Term Investors: Continue to hold Bitcoin and consider buying additional positions on any dips.
Short-Term Traders: Be cautious and consider taking profits on existing positions. If a pullback occurs, look for buying opportunities near key support levels.
Important Considerations:
Volatility: Bitcoin is a highly volatile asset, and price swings can be significant.
Market Sentiment: Positive news and developments in the cryptocurrency industry can fuel further price increases.
Regulatory Environment: Changes in regulations can impact the price of Bitcoin.
Will Bitcoin experience Bull run or will there be consolidation?In August, I was bullish when Bitcoin was around 48000, and I was sure that BTC would definitely reach 65k. But there's only one bearish sign now, which is that Bitcoin didn't close the monthly candle above 66k, it only gave a wick.
Now, my view is that Bitcoin will consolidate a bit more in October and then Break the ATH. this doesn't mean it will go straight to 100k absolutely not. This bull run won't be parabolic at all; it will be slow and steady. This cycle will likely complete somewhere between December 2025 or March 2026.
Thats it for now.
BTCUSD LIVE ANALYSIS & PREDICTION - BITCOIN PRICE ACTION 11 AUGBtc is looking bearish on 1 hour timeframe.
But without confirmation my overview will be incomplete. I will wait for confirmation.
Confirmation will be - Price should test the support and should not test it's previous resistance.
Volume will also give Confirmation so keep eyes on volume
Support break is expected and price should reach to its previous support.
BITCOIN SETUP TRADE WIH 1:5 RISK REWARDBITCOIN SETUP TRADE WIH 1:5 RISK REWARD
A good Buying detected on BTCUSD
It's showing a BULL MOVE due to these reason
1. It's following THE 60 M trendline here
2. It's ready to break the neckline
3. In day chat it's showing the heavy bullish pressure
Just grab out will your own risk
With a small amount
Stay connected
Stay happy
Bande mataram
BITCOIN SETUP TRADE WIH 1:5 RISK REWARD
A good Buying detected on BTCUSD
It's showing a BULL MOVE due to these reason
1. It's following THE 60 M trendline here
2. It's ready to break the neckline
3. In day chat it's showing the heavy bullish pressure
Just grab out will your own risk
With a small amount
Stay connected
Stay happy
Bande mataram
Bitcoin consolidating after a drop.Bitcoin for last 10 day is being consolidating after a nice fall of 10%.
The coin is consolidating in a range of 1% and there can be a nice move one it breaks the consolidation zone.
On the weekly charts, it is taking support from the 200 ema i.e. 25670 and has retested after testing the levels.
Even on the daily charts, there is also a bearish moving averages cross over and its trading below it. There might be a retest as there is a huge imbalance created.
For the intraday trades. The coin is trading around the 20 ema, on the hourly charts, and below the 200 ema.
The volumes are high when there is a fall and a reduction in the up move.
There is volatility which no giving a clear view in this range.
Let the coin give break out or break down of the levels and trades should be initiated accordingly.
Support :- 25860, 25670
Resistance :- 26185, 26500
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering a trade.
BITCOIN USDTTime frame 1 hour, going long at support where as the risk is low like every other trade as per my setup. There were multiple thoughts before entry if I should enter or not. I am sure this happens with many novice trades like me but to be in a league of professional we've got to enter a trade as per our own trade setup without a second thought. If there is a trade plan execute, post entry there is either SL or Target but what nobody teaches us in any course or book that it what is outside the chart that is required is PATIENCE, EXECUTION, PSYCHOLOGY, PRACTICE.
WAIT & HUNT