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BOE

Falling wedge at two-year low teases GBPUSD buyers, UK GDP eyedGBPUSD remains guarded, despite all the difficulties, ahead of the preliminary readings of UK Q1 2022 GDP. In doing so, the cable pair portrays a falling wedge bullish chart pattern at the lowest levels since June 2020. Given the likelihood of firmer UK growth numbers and anticipated positive news from Brexit, not to forget the wedge near multi-month low, the cable has brighter odds of consolidating recent losses. However, a clear upside break of 1.2415 becomes necessary to the ball rolling in favor of buyers. Following that, the 200-SMA level surrounding 1.2850 may probe the theoretical upswing towards 1.3200. It’s worth noting that the 1.3000 psychological magnet and April’s high near 1.3165 can act as additional upside filters to watch. Alternatively, a disappointment may drag the quote initially towards the latest bottom near 1.2260, a break of which could propel GBPUSD prices towards the stated wedge’s support line, close to 1.2200. In a case where the cable pair remains on the back foot past-1.2200, May 2020 low around 1.2075 might test the bears on the way to the 1.2000 round figure. Overall, GBPUSD bears seem running out of steam ahead of the key UK data and the falling wedge near the two-year top appears cherry on the top. Though, it all depends upon the British GDP, which in turn requires caution on the part of buyers.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD bulls need 1.2830 breakout for conviction, BOE in focusGBPUSD stays near the two-year low, despite the post-Fed rebound, as cable traders brace for the Bank of England’s (BOE) 0.25% rate hike. Given the latest hawkish moves from the RBA and the Fed, the “Old Lady’s” heavier-than-expected measures to tame inflation won’t be a surprise. In that case, the pair will witness the much-awaited rebound from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of March 2020 to May 2021 upside towards September 2020 bottom surrounding 1.2675. However, a convergence of the previous support line from March 2021 and 50% Fibo, around 1.2830, appears a tough nut to crack for the pair buyers, a break of which could escalate the recovery moves towards the 200-week SMA surrounding 1.3100. Alternatively, a disappointment from the BOE will need a clear break of the aforementioned key Fibo support level, near 1.2500, to direct bears towards the June 2020 bottom of 1.2250. In a case where GBPUSD prices remain weak past 1.2250, the May 2020 swing low around 1.2075 will act as the last defense for the buyers as a break of which won’t hesitate to call the 2020’s yearly trough of 1.1409. To sum up, GBPUSD remains in the hands of bears ahead of the BOE’s monetary policy decision.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD signals further losses, UK data, BOE’s Bailey eyedGBPUSD extends pullback from 1.3090 ahead of the key UK data, as well as a speech from the BOE Governor Andrew Bailey, during early Friday. The downside bias also gains support from the sluggish RSI and MACD, which in turn suggests the pair’s further weakness towards the support line of a six-week-old triangle, near 1.2990 at the latest. Following that, the monthly low and 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of the March-April moves, respectively around 1.2970 and 1.2945, will lure the pair sellers. Alternatively, recovery moves will aim for the stated triangle’s upper line, surrounding 1.3090. Also acting as the short-term key resistance is the 200-SMA level close to the 1.3100 threshold. Should the quote rises past 1.3100, the mid-month high of 1.3146 and the monthly peak of 1.3166 may test the GBPUSD buyers. Following that, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level close to 1.3170 will act as an additional challenge for the bulls before retaking the controls.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD stays beyond short-term key hurdle ahead of BOE rate-hikeGBPUSD holds onto recovery moves from 16-month low post FOMC showdown. In doing so, the cable pair remains firmer above a convergence of the 10-DMA and a three-week-long descending trend line, around 1.3120 by the press time. Given the RSI rebound supporting the latest run-up of the pair, it will attract more bids on successfully crossing December 2021 bottom surrounding 1.3160. Following that, February’s bottom near 1.3275 and January’s low of 1.3357 will gain the buyer’s attention before the 100-DMA level around 1.3420 challenges the upside. Alternatively, a downside break of the 1.3120 resistance-turned-support figure will recall the GBPUSD bears. During the quote’s weakness past 1.3120, the 1.3000 psychological magnet will act as an intermediate halt towards the fall targeting a downward sloping trend line from April 2021, close to 1.2950. In a case where the cable bears dominate below 1.2950, 78.6% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of May 2021 to January 2022 moves, near 1.2885, and November 2021 low of 1.2853 should be in focus for the bears. Overall, a clear upside break of the short-term key hurdle teases the buyers but it would be ideal to wait for the Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy decision before taking any entries.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD bears approach 1.2950 with eyes on BOE, FedGBPUSD refreshed a 16-month low on Friday amid broad US dollar strength, as well as preparations for this week’s key monetary policy meetings of the Bank of England (BOE) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed). With that, the cable pair also broke 2021 bottom and 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of June 2021 to January 2022 moves, respectively around 1.3160 and 1.3070. As a result, a downside break of the 1.3000 psychological magnet becomes imminent. However, a descending trend line from April 2021, around 1.2950, may challenge the pair sellers afterward. In a case where the pair prices remain weak past 1.2950, the 78.6% FE level near 1.2885 and November 2020 bottom surrounding 1.2850 will be in focus. On the contrary, the corrective pullback may aim for the 61.8% FE and 2021 bottom, close to 1.3070 and 1.3160. Though, a convergence of the 10-DMA and a three-week-old descending resistance line, around 1.3220-25, will challenge the GBPUSD pair’s further upside. In a case where the quote rises past 1.3225, recovery moves will target January’s low near 1.3360. Overall, GBPUSD broke the key support levels during the last week and hence hints at the further downside. However, oversold RSI and cautious mood ahead of the BOE and Fed decisions may trouble the bears.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD stays inside monthly triangle ahead of BOE MPR HearingsGBPUSD bears flex muscles inside the one-month-old symmetrical triangle, recently easing from the resistance. Although downbeat RSI and MACD signals keep sellers hopeful of breaking the stated triangle’s support line, around 1.3550 at the latest, a convergence of the 100-DMA and the 50-DMA highlights the 1.3500 threshold as strong support. Even if the cable pair drop below the 1.3500 mark, the following south-run needs validation from an upward sloping support line from late December, near 1.3780 by the press time, a break of which will give controls to bears. On the contrary, hawkish BOE Monetary Policy Report (MPR) Hearings will again challenge the triangle’s resistance line, close to 1.3635. Following that, the 200-DMA and a descending resistance line from October 2021, respectively around 1.3680 and 1.3700, could test the bulls. During the quote’s run-up past-1.3700, January’s peak of 1.3748 may act as the last defense for the pair sellers ahead of unleashing the bulls. Overall, GBPUSD grinds inside the monthly triangle ahead of a likely hawkish event.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD battles 1.3540-35 key support ahead of UK PMIsGBPUSD keeps pullback from 200-DMA and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of September-December 2021 downside around a short-term crucial support convergence near 1.3540-35, including 100-DMA and 50% Fibo with eyes on monthly UK PMI data. That said, recently upbeat UK economics renews BOE rate hike concerns, which in turn could trigger the pair’s bounce from the stated support should today’s activity numbers arrive higher. The same could trigger recovery moves towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3630. However, the pair’s further advances will be challenged by the 200-DMA and 78.6% Fibo. level, respectively around 1.3730 and 1.3750. On the contrary, a downside break of 1.3535 will reassess the data and also need validation from the mid-November peak of 1.3513 before directing GBPUSD bears to the 50-DMA level of 1.3416. Should the cable pair sellers dominate past 1.3416, odds of witnessing further declines towards 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3335 can’t be ruled out.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD drops from 50-DMA ahead of BOE, Brexit talksGBPUSD bears retake controls on the key Thursday comprising Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy meeting and important Brexit talks in Paris. Technical set-up hints at further weakness on the pair’s inability to rise past 50-DMA, coupled with the bearish MACD signals. However, a clear downside break of a five-week-long support line, near 1.3615, becomes necessary. Also probing the sellers is the latest swing low surrounding August month’s trough close to the 1.3600 threshold. In a case where prices remain weak past 1.3600, July’s low of 1.3570 will act as a buffer before dragging the quote to the yearly bottom of 1.3410. Meanwhile, a surprise positive fueling the pair above the 50-DMA level of 1.3705 will aim for a downward sloping resistance line from mid-September, around 1.3810. Following that, the 200-DMA level 1.3846 will be a tough nut to crack for the GBPUSD bulls before heading towards September’s peak of 1.3913 and the 1.4000 psychological magnet.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD bulls step back from 100-DMA on softer UK CPIWith downbeat UK inflation figures pouring cold water on the face of BOE hawks, GBPUSD eases from 100-DMA, consolidating the previous day’s gains below 1.3800. For now, the 1.3700 mark, comprising multiple levels marked since late September, question the pair’s further weakness. Also acting as a downside filter is the ascending support line from September 30, near 1.3660. In a case where the cable prices drop below 1.3660, July’s low close to 1.3570 will gain the market’s attention. Meanwhile, recovery moves not only need to cross the 100-DMA immediate hurdle surrounding 1.3805. The reason is the 200-DMA and a descending resistance line from July 30, respectively near 1.3845 and 1.3860. During the quote’s rise past 1.3860, tops marked during July and late June, around 1.3985 and 1.4005 in that order, will be crucial before calling the GBPUSD bulls.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD rebound seeks validation on BOE Super ThursdayGBPUSD recovers from the monthly bottom as the cable traders await the Bank of England’s (BOE) Quarterly Inflation Report (QIR). Given the bullish hopes from the “Old Lady,” the quote may keep the latest rebound. However, it needs to provide a daily closing above an ascending trend line from July 20, near 1.3630 to keep the buyers hopeful. Also challenging the short-term upside moves is a downward sloping resistance line from September 15, near 1.3680. Above all, the pair bulls may struggle to retake controls unless crossing the 100-DMA level of 1.4000 on a daily closing basis. Meanwhile, a daily closing below 1.3630 will direct GBPUSD sellers towards the 1.3600 round figure and July’s bottom near 1.3570. Though, any further weakness will be challenged by a descending support line from April, surrounding the 1.3500 threshold. It’s worth noting that the oversold RSI conditions raise concern over the pair’s additional declines and so does a jump in the UK inflation expectations that helps BOE hawks to keep the driver’s seat.
Long
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD seesaws inside bullish pennant ahead of BOEGBPUSD bears the burden of the US dollar rebound and the pre-BOE anxiety during the early Super Thursday. Although the Bank of England (BOE) policymakers aren’t expected to alter monetary policy, the widely anticipated dovish tilt in contrast to the Fed’s tapering woes seems to weigh on the quote of late. Even so, the bullish chart pattern keeps buyers hopeful. The same requires clear trading beyond 1.3950 to confirm the buyers’ arrival. However, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of June-July declines, near 1.3990, adds to the upside filters before directing the bulls toward the early June’s low near 1.4065. Meanwhile, a sustained trading below 1.3880 will defy the bullish pennant and direct GBPUSD sellers toward the 200-SMA level of 1.3835. In a case where the “Old Lady” turns more bearish than expected, multiple supports near the 1.3740-30 region, comprising levels marked since July 02, should gain the market’s attention. Additionally, the pair’s weakness past 1.3730 won’t hesitate to challenge the lows marked during July and February around 1.3570-60.
Long
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD stays inside bullish set-up on BOE Super ThursdayAfter cheering the Fed-led run-up the previous day, GBPUSD bulls catch a breather below a three-week-old resistance line. However, a confluence of 50-day SMA and yearly support line, coupled with upbeat oscillators signals the pair’s further upside past-1.3990 immediate hurdle. Additionally, wide expectations of the BOE’s disappointment contrast Governor Andrew Bailey’s ability to surprise the market, which in turn adds strength to the bullish bias. Though, a clear break of the 1.4000 threshold will become necessary for the GBPUSD buyers before eyeing the previous month’s top, also the highest since April 2018, around 1.4240. Alternatively, downside moves will not only need to break the 1.3810 support confluence but also an ascending trend line from September 23, currently around 1.3675, to recall the GBPUSD bears. Following that, lows marked during February and January, respectively near 1.3560 and 1.3450, will be the key to watch. Hence, GBPUSD bulls can ignore losses unless breaking the 1.3675 level, which requires an extremely dovish BOE that is out of course for now.
Long
by MTradingGlobal
200-SMA set to test GBPUSD pullback on “Super Thursday”GBPUSD refreshes a two-week low on the key “Super Thursday” dominated by the Bank of England’s (BOE) quarterly moves. With the increased hopes of BOE’s hawkish comments, based on the UK’s vaccinations, GBPUSD may bounce off the key SMA support. However, the weekly resistance line near 1.3650 could restrict further recovery moves before recalling the 1.3700 threshold on the chart. In a case where BOE Governor Andrew Bailey sounds too optimistic and rejects negative rate hopes, a one-month-old ascending resistance line near 1.3775-80 and the 1.3800 round-figure should gain the market’s attention. On the contrary, any disappointment from the “Old Lady”, which is highly feared, can challenge the yearly low near 1.3450. Should the BOE-led disappointment gains support from the USD’s strong run-up, mainly due to its safe-haven demand, GBPUSD might not hesitate to challenge December’s low 1.3133. During the fall, 1.3430, 1.3300 and 1.3180 can act as buffers. Overall, GBPUSD trades near the key support on a very important day and hence cable traders should remain cautious ahead of the event.
Long
by MTradingGlobal