NIFTY | 23,776 Held — Trendline Retest After Breakout AttemptOverview
Last week, this chart highlighted the 4th Test of the Confluence Zone where the Descending Resistance Trendline met the Swing High at 24,265. The analysis called for close observation of that candle. This week delivered a clear answer — and a new, more interesting structure has now emerged on the Daily chart.
What Happened This Week — The Follow-Up
🔴 The Rejection — Price was rejected from the Confluence Zone as anticipated, declining toward the Swing Low at 23,776.
🟢 The Higher Low — 23,776 held as support — buyers defended this level strongly. This is significant because it confirms a Higher Low structure — the first sign of potential trend shift.
🟢 The Breakout Attempt — Price broke above the Swing High at 24,265 with a gap up, briefly crossing the Descending Resistance Trendline. However the candle closed near the breakout level with selling pressure — suggesting the move is not yet fully confirmed.
🔵 Trendline Retest — Price is now retesting the Descending Resistance Trendline from below — the same trendline that has rejected price multiple times since March.
The New Structure — What Changed
Two important new elements have appeared this week:
📈 Rising Support Trendline (green dashed) — connecting the lows from April through June, this rising trendline shows buyers are making higher lows consistently. This is a structural shift from pure bearishness.
📊 200 EMA at 24,421 — the 200 Daily EMA sits just above current price, adding another layer of resistance above the trendline. Price needs to clear both the trendline AND the 200 EMA to confirm a genuine bullish shift.
Together the Descending Resistance Trendline + 200 EMA create a resistance cluster between 24,270 and 24,421 — a significant zone to watch next week.
Key Levels
🔴 200 EMA Resistance — 24,421
🔴 Descending Trendline — dynamic, currently ~24,270
🔴 Swing High — 24,265
🔴 Resistance above — 24,490 / 24,610
🟢 Higher Low / Swing Low — 23,776
🟢 Support — 23,308
🟢 Major Support — 23,067
Three Scenarios for Next Week
🟢 Scenario A — Confirmed Breakout
Price closes decisively above the Descending Trendline AND the 200 EMA (24,421) on a daily basis. This would confirm the breakout attempt as genuine and signal a structural shift. Next target — 24,490 and 24,610.
🔴 Scenario B — Bull Trap & Reversal
Price fails to sustain above 24,265 and falls back below the Swing High. The breakout attempt becomes a false breakout — a classic bull trap. Watch for a decline back toward 23,776 and potentially 23,308.
⚪ Scenario C — Compression Between Levels
Price consolidates between 23,776 and 24,421 — compressing between the Rising Support Trendline and the resistance cluster above. A breakout in either direction from this compression would then define the next major move.
Beginner's Lesson — What is a Bull Trap?
A Bull Trap occurs when price breaks above a resistance level — creating the appearance of a breakout — but then reverses back below that level. It "traps" buyers who entered on the breakout, forcing them to sell at a loss as price falls back.
How to avoid a bull trap:
Wait for a daily close above resistance — not just an intraday breach
Look for volume confirmation — genuine breakouts typically have higher volume
Wait for follow-through — the next session should also close above the breakout level
A close above 24,421 (200 EMA) with follow-through would reduce the bull trap risk significantly.
Conclusion
NIFTY has formed an interesting structure this week — a Higher Low at 23,776, a breakout attempt above 24,265, and a trendline retest. The structure is gradually shifting, but confirmation is still pending. The 200 EMA at 24,421 is the key level that will define whether this is a genuine breakout or a bull trap.
Watch next week's price action carefully — the answer is forming.
For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always manage your risk. Bull Trap at 24500 [Analysis for 08.07.2026: Wednesday]Probable Scenario Analysis of Nifty 50 for the 08th of July, 2026. The day is Wednesday.
🟢 Bullish Scenario
There is no observable setup for bullish trades. Be bullish only if the price sustains above the level of 24500. The probable bullish targets above 24500 would be - 24550 and 24600.
🔴 Bearish Scenario
Stay bearish if the price remains below the level of 24400. The probable bearish targets below the level of 24400 would be - 24350, 24300, and 24250. The price would receive good support at 24250, as an unfilled gap at 24271 would be filled. Next, if the price breaks down below 24250, then the probable bearish targets would be - 24200 and 24150. There is another unfilled gap at 24167.
🟡 No Trading Zone (NTZ): (24500 - 24400).
⏺ Range of Consolidation (ROC): (24500 - 24300).
Here, 24400 is the median of ROC. The median works like a sentiment. The price trading above the median would offer bullish sentiment, while the price trading below the median would trigger bearish sentiment.
● Event
This week (06th to 10th July), there is one high-impact event (the U.S. FOMC minutes). The event is on Wednesday, 08th of July. Thus, today is the high-impact day. FOMC meeting is at 11:30 PM IST (night). Our markets will be closed. Also, tomorrow is the SENSEX weekly expiry.
● Intraday Bias
Establish intraday bias with respect to the opening price. If the price sustains above the opening price, then don't think of shorting. Look for bullish trades only. On the contrary, if the price sustains below the opening price, then don't think of going long. Look for bearish trades in that case.
● Disclaimer + End Note
- All the analyses would fail in the case of a major gap up, gap down, or price structure anomaly. Thus, practice PRAGMATISM in the live session.
- Trade only if there is a set-up. Remember, not trading is an extension of the trading activity.
- Mark your points. Trade your points. Price is GOD. Anything can happen in the markets. Thus, trade what you see, not what you believe.
- Always PRACTICE RISK MANAGEMENT. Always PROTECT YOUR CAPITAL. Be RESPONSIBLE.
- Be Strategic. Be Courageous. Be Patient. Be Wise.
- Every day is a new day. Thus, do not carry the baggage of past successes or failures. Leave the gardens of winning and losing. Establish yourself in equanimity. Always think from a new perspective.
- Let the joy of trading drive your effectiveness, not greed or fear. Believe in Possibilities.
Happy Trading! ASTS: Failed Breakout & Structural Invalidation1. The Macro Perspective: The V-Shaped Recovery and Failure
I am taking a BEARISH / CAUTIONARY bias on AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) on the daily (1D) timeframe.
When analyzing pure market structure on an aggressive growth stock, vertical, V-shaped recoveries often lack the necessary structural digestion required to sustain a true breakout. Following a steep markdown into early May, the stock initiated a massive, high-velocity vertical squeeze back toward its historical highs. Fundamentally, this aggressive technical momentum was built on the anticipation of rapid satellite constellation deployment to enable commercial space-based cellular broadband. However, this entire fundamental thesis suffered a massive structural blow today. A catastrophic incident occurred at Cape Canaveral where a Blue Origin New Glenn rocket exploded during an engine test, severely damaging the launch complex. Analysts note this will cause significant delays for AST SpaceMobile, jeopardizing their timeline to get 45 satellites into orbit this year, which is required to begin commercial direct-to-cell service.
2. The Educational Setup: Horizontal Boundary Rejection
To understand the absolute technical failure behind this setup, look closely at how the price structure interacted with its core boundary right at the critical moment:
The 121.80 Pivot Ceiling: The definitive line in the sand for a bullish continuation was the solid black horizontal resistance line drawn at 121.80. While the price recently managed to push above this line, the vertical nature of the ascent meant there was zero structural support built beneath it. Buyers were entirely overextended.
3. Current Price Action: Failed Breakout and Bull Trap
Look at the most recent daily candle on the far right of the chart. The structural reality has violently snapped back. Following the devastating fundamental catalyst regarding the launchpad explosion, institutional buyers instantly pulled their bids. The stock printed a massive, full-bodied red expansion candle, gapping down and actively collapsing over 15% on the session. This explosive downside thrust has decisively obliterated the 121.80 level, pulling the price all the way down to the 112.80 zone. This price action confirms a textbook failed breakout and a massive bull trap. The stock has officially transitioned out of the markup phase and into a highly volatile downside correction.
4. The Trade Plan: Entries, Targets, and Risk Management
Entry Strategy: The bullish thesis is completely dead. For traders looking to capitalize on the downside momentum, the highest-probability entry strategy involves waiting for a dead-cat bounce or a minor intraday relief rally that retests the underside of the broken 118.00 to 121.00 zone, which should now act as a heavy new resistance ceiling.
Take Profit (Targets): Downside momentum is exceptionally strong, compounded by a major analyst downgrade from a global investment bank to a "Hold" rating with a lowered price target. By utilizing the depth of the recent structural swings, primary downside targets sit comfortably in the 95.00 to 100.00 zone, with further capitulation potentially revisiting the 80.00 to 85.00 structural base if panic selling accelerates.
Invalidation (Stop Loss): A bearish continuation thesis is invalidated if the market completely absorbs the fundamental shock and violently reclaims the structural high. A hard stop loss for short positions should be placed safely above the recent rejection wick and the 121.80 pivot, specifically around the 125.00 to 127.00 level.
5. Time Horizon:
Because this technical setup captures a massive structural phase transition and a violent failed breakout on the 1-Day chart, this is a high-volatility momentum setup designed to capture rapid downside expansion over the coming weeks. Respect the structural break! 
Long
Short
Mastering the Intraday Sutra: An intraday trading strategyMastering the Intraday Sutra: A Professional Guide to Trading Indian Markets with Precision
(Adapting Globex Strategy-Inspired Concepts to India’s Unique Trading Hours)
Introduction
The Intraday Sutra strategy is a systematic approach designed for India’s equity/futures markets, inspired by the principles of identifying key price levels (similar to the Globex "high/low" concept) but tailored to India’s fixed trading hours (9:15 AM – 3:30 PM). This strategy leverages prior-day price action, supply-demand zones, and disciplined risk management to capitalize on intraday opportunities. Below, we break down its components for clarity and repeatability.
Strategy Overview
1. Core Instruments
Indices: All indices
Stocks: Nifty 50 constituents for alignment with index momentum
2. Ideal Time Frames
5-minute charts: For granular entry/exit precision.
15-minute charts: To filter noise and align with broader intraday trends.
Key Levels: Prior-Day High/Low & Supply-Demand Zones
1. Plotting Prior-Day High (PDH) and Prior-Day Low (PDL)
Purpose: These levels act as psychological benchmarks.
Method:
- Manually mark PDH/PDL on your chart.
- Use Trading View indicators (e.g., “Previous Day High-Low”) for automation.
2. Identifying Supply-Demand Zones
-Supply Zone:
- Formation: Rally → Base → Drop (RBD) or Drop → Base → Drop (DBD).
- Action: Potential sell zone; price often reverses downward here.
- Demand Zone:
- Formation: Drop → Base → Rally (DBR) or Rally → Base → Rally (RBR).
- Action: Potential buy zone; price often reverses upward here.
Zone Validation Rules:
1. Structure: The “base” (consolidation) must be ≤6 candles; the breakout must show ≥2 impulsive candles.
2. Freshness: Only trade untested zones (no prior price interaction).
3. Zone Merging: Combine overlapping zones or prioritize the one with the best risk-reward ratio.
Entry & Trade Triggers
1. Breakout Confirmation
Short Entry: Triggered when price breaks above prior-day high (PDH) and retests a fresh supply zone.
Long Entry: Triggered when price breaks below prior-day low (PDL) and retests a fresh demand zone.
2. Order Placement
Buy Limit Orders: Set at the demand zone’s proximal line
Sell Limit Orders: Set at the supply zone’s proximal line
Risk Management Framework
1. Stop Loss Placement
Long Trades: Below the demand zone (mechanical rule) or 5% of the Daily Average True Range (ATR) below the distal line of demand
Short Trades: Above the supply zone (mechanical rule) or 5% of Daily ATR above the distal line of supply
2. Position Sizing
Risk ≤1-2% of capital per trade to preserve longevity.
Trade Management & Profit Targets
1. Initial Target: 2:1 Risk-Reward (2R).
Example: If risking ₹1000, target ₹2000 profit.
2. Trailing Stop : Move stop loss to breakeven at 2R, then trail for 3R+ using price structure (e.g., swing lows/highs).
3. Priority: Focus on “A+ Setups” where zones align with higher timeframes (for example a 5 mins zone within a 15 mins zone or higher)
Critical Success Factors
1. Timing is Everything
Optimal Entry Window: 9:15 AM – 11:00 AM (peak liquidity, institutional participation).
Avoid Late Trades: Post-2:00 PM entries often lack momentum for robust risk-reward outcomes.
2. Confluence with Higher Timeframes
- Strengthen signals by aligning 5/15-minute zones with hourly/daily support/resistance/supply/demand zones
3. Event-Driven Volatility
Capitalize on gaps from overnight global news (e.g., US Fed, crude oil prices) or domestic catalysts (RBI policies, earnings).
Tools & Execution
Charting: Trading View for automated PDH/PDL and zone plotting
Mindset: Discipline to avoid overtrading and stick to fresh zones.
Example: The example taken here is on the Nifty 15 mins chart. See how the price broke the previous day's low and reacted nicely from a prior higher quality demand zone. These levels can act as trap levels trapping most of the retail traders and investors on the opposite side of the trade. The price gave a nice bounce from the demand zone and went on to rally to the opposing supply zone giving a greater than 3:1 R:R.
Conclusion
The Intraday Sutra strategy combines technical precision with rigorous risk management, offering a structured way to navigate India’s time-bound markets. By focusing on prior-day extremes, fresh supply-demand zones, and strategic timing, traders can systematically exploit intraday inefficiencies. Remember: Consistency beats complexity. Back test rigorously, refine your process, and let discipline drive profitability.
Final Note: Always validate this strategy in a simulated environment before deploying live capital. Use Trading View Bar Replay functionality to test your strategy.
Markets evolve—stay adaptive!
Education
BITCOIN - Again in #BullTrap#Bitcoin Weekly Analysis
As per weekly movements into CRYPTOCAP:BTC into USDT pair Chart Analysis, It's again into #BullTrap with highly Pumped at October Start-up while America goes into Shut-Down to their services as per financial crises and Recession.
This Trap is 100% #Pumptoober,
B'coz, as per chart, Buying pressure starts from 1st week of January and Selling pressure starts from 1st week of August (As mentioned in Chart), after that Not any Buying cycle with market Volume arrived yet, so market is still under the #BearishZone pressure, and whaler's are trying to manipulate the market by creating Pump-Dump as in BullTrap.
As per my analysis, very much chances for market to goes into Bearish Zone within next 25-35 days and favourable chance to reach out its final Lower-Low target from $23.5k-$19.5k around in coming 30-40 days up to Nov. end, after that market starts in #BullishZone.
Anyway,
Always #DYOR and Trade wisely by using #StopLoss, its just #NFA
and,
Must LIKE, FOLLOW, SHARE & COMMENT on it... 
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