Nifty- A Bull Trap unfolding??
Is this a Bull Trap? Will Nifty Create a new ATH next year or will it come crashing down?
Scenario 1: Nifty breaks out of 25200, consolidates a bit and begins the upward journey.
Scenario 2: Nifty breaches 25200 and gets all the hapless retailers onboard the Bus before plummetting to 22000.
What are your thoughts? Which scenario is more likely to happen? Please comment your thoughts and opinions.
Bulltrap
BITCOIN - Again in #BullTrap#Bitcoin Weekly Analysis
As per weekly movements into CRYPTOCAP:BTC into USDT pair Chart Analysis, It's again into #BullTrap with highly Pumped at October Start-up while America goes into Shut-Down to their services as per financial crises and Recession.
This Trap is 100% #Pumptoober,
B'coz, as per chart, Buying pressure starts from 1st week of January and Selling pressure starts from 1st week of August (As mentioned in Chart), after that Not any Buying cycle with market Volume arrived yet, so market is still under the #BearishZone pressure, and whaler's are trying to manipulate the market by creating Pump-Dump as in BullTrap.
As per my analysis, very much chances for market to goes into Bearish Zone within next 25-35 days and favourable chance to reach out its final Lower-Low target from $23.5k-$19.5k around in coming 30-40 days up to Nov. end, after that market starts in #BullishZone.
Anyway,
Always #DYOR and Trade wisely by using #StopLoss, its just #NFA
and,
Must LIKE, FOLLOW, SHARE & COMMENT on it...
Nifty 50: READY FOR Correction/ Crash!Attached: Nifty 50 Daily Chart as of 7th July 2023
Price has closed below PDL marking the End of the 5 wave rise that makes up either the 3rd Wave or the C Wave
In both case, whether it is there 3rd or the C Wave, post completion of a 5 wave impulse be it whatever degree of the wave, there has to be a Retracement at the very least
Price has 2 downsides going as per the Retracement:
Target 1= 19200 (Gap Area)
Target 2= 19030 (Super Trend Support)
On further break below 18975, the Downside can accelerate to fill the 3rd Gap @ 18815
Last Line of Support is 18640....
SBILIFE- False Breakout gives a SHORT!Attached: SBILIFE Daily Chart as of 21st April 2023
For the Levels, it is already marked in the Chart (SELF EXPLANATORY)
Stop Loss > 1136
Downside Target 1= 1074
Downside Target 2= 1054
For the Thesis as to why it is a SHORT:
- the 17th April Candle was a Breakout Candle that turned out to be a BULL TRAP Candle, so all the Bulls that entered got Liquidated as the Low of the Candle was taken out
- with the 21st April Candle (latest candle) Bears entered the stock giving a Breakdown below POC of the Volume Profile
- All Insurance Stocks saw Selling on Friday, even HDFCLIFE is similar and Bears have taken over in that Stock as well. So a Weak Sector too
Note: Both SBILIFE and HDFCLIFE have Earnings on 26th April (the coming Wednesday)
Nasdaq 100- Bull Trap, SELL!Attached: NDQ Daily Live Market Chart as of 20th March 2023
- Price has triggered a Bearish Anti Butterfly Harmonic Pattern
- Price has also broken Previous Day Low with Previous Day being a Doji Candle
- And this Sell Off today comes after a Run up which is potentially a False Breakout from a Bull Flag
- The saying goes like, "From False Moves come Fast Moves in the Opposite Direction"
- The Divergence between S&P 500 and Nasdaq looks like Nasdaq will resolve on the Downside to align with the S&P 500
Plan of Action:
Price Holding below 12680
has a Downside📉 Target🎯 open to:
T1= 11830 to 11700
T2= 11250 to 11100
Nifty 50 False Breakout CONFIRMED!Attached: Nifty 50 Weekly Chart as of 17th March 2023
This Week's Candle has Closed below the Trend Line drawn from the October 2021 Highs, after having broken out above that same Trend Line back in October 2022
So Price went from giving a Breakout to New Highs of 18,887 in Nov 2022 to slipping back below 18,000 and now it is back below the Very Important Trendline of Oct 2021
This is a Signature of a Classic False Breakout or what you may call a BULL Trap !
The Chart is as simple as it can be for you to understand with the Trend Lines and the Arrows
There is a saying in Technical Analysis:
"From False Moves come Fast Moves in the Opposite Direction"
So Expect the Bear Market in Nifty 50 to Unfold from here
Downside Targets are Now Open for:
1) September 2022 Lows to Breaks
2) June 2022 Lows to be Challenged Next
Unpredictable NIFTY ,Is it a bear trap?Yesterday, I had posted regarding the IVHS pattern of Nifty. Today, market had a big breakaway gap up opening followed by upmove to a strong resistance of 17600.
Yesterday, the market had given a bearish closing and looks like this was a short covering which was triggered by strong Rupee vs USD.
Today's closing above 17600 would be either a bull trap or a signal for bullish move upto 17775 . Monday market would be exciting and I would like to wait and watch rather than having an open position.
This is my personal opinion and kindly trade as per your own analysis.
TEJASNET, a rally of 50% is expectedIt's been quite some time since I posted.
Just look at the this beautiful chart, you can find confirmation through various pattern and also can see some indication of institutional activity.
If tomorrow a small inside candle is formed then it will be best time to build position(near 600) for a target of about 45-50% with SL at 560 i.e., RR of 7.
ICICI BANK TRADING IDEA Q4 2022 ResultsNSE:ICICIBANK
Candle Pattern Form on Weekly Closing is Shooting Star at the top ( A Bearish Candle) indicating trend reversal.
A Death Cross was also formed on 12th April when DMA 44 crossed below DMA 200.
There is a Gap between 778 to 788... which is offering resistance!
Due to Good Q4 2022 Results, the Stock is likely to open GAP UP on Monday, April 25, 2022.
However, analysing the Futures Open Interest data its observed that there is a short build up.
Option OI suggests that heavy Call Writing has been done from 780 onwards... 800 has the highest CALL OI... So 800 will be a Strong Resistance. Also Maximum Puts have been written at 700 level, so 700 is a good support. These two levels may be respected at least till this month Expiry April 28, 2022.
Overall its prudent not to enter at 770 above level unless it crosses the resistance... else it may be a Trap for the Bulls!
NIFTY at important levelToday again nifty is at all-time high. But if you look it can be following this rising trendline as resistance. So it can take resistance from it and trap all those buyers who went long from all-time high breakout. So a little gap down can give us a good bearish move.
Comment down your thoughts on this.
Look how bearish divergence from yesterday worked today in MGLNSE:MGL
I have posted this in my earlier post for MGL.
BearishDivergence.
Hope you were on the right side today. (14-07-2021)
In starting of today it was a bull trap.
It is always to remember that never chase a long upside or long downside move in stock at the beginning of trade. 85% chances are there that it will reverse.
Though the target was small on the sell side from the given level, but it worked on the technical analysis.
Some might have short it from the higher level or top.
Some might have been trapped in the bull trap.
Always trade on levels. It will be always a safe trade. Avoid Trade tomorrow in MGL.
If you have any doubts/comments, do comments below.
Edu Post: Double Bull Trap in NFLThe stock of National Fertilizers Limited (NFL) has exhibited a 'double bull trap' as shown in the 75min chart. The first time bulls were trapped on 12 May at morning highs in the range of 72.5-73.5. The trap was laid further the second time with another gap up crack on 20 May with 72.5 high.
Imagine the plight of the folks who bought at these zones. They will be looking to sell at the first go if the stock comes in this range again. Thus, we can see quite a bit of overhead supply in this zone.
It goes without saying that if this overhead supply is consumed, a major bullish breakout can be seen.
Note: This is an edu post and not intended to make any specific calls.
!! NIFTY WEEKLY CHART SHOWING EXHAUSTION !!NIFTY WEEKLY CHART SHOWING EXHAUSTION
NOTE:-
VIEW IS ONLY FOR TRADERS WILLING TO BEAR THE RISK
IT IS NOT A TRADE SUGGESTION FOR FUTURES TRADE
TRADE MIGHT CREATE TRADES IN OPTIONS SINCE IT WILL LIMIT THE DOWNSIDE
VIEW:-
RSI HAD GONE BELOW 25 TODAY FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE OCT 2008
MACD MOMENTUM BAR IS -227 WAS EVEN BELOW
THAT BUT MANANGED TO COVER
+200/-200 ARE CONTRA ZONES/REVERSAL ZONES
EXHAUSTION IN PRICE MOVEMENT IN THE INDEX IS VISIBLE 9950 IS A WEEKLY SUPPORT ACTED AS TRAP
MY VIEW ON LEVELS
NIFTY BOUNCE EXPECTED
10490
10930
THAT IS STILL 1000 POINTS FROM CURRENT LEVELS
STOP LOSS WILL BE OPTION PREMIUM APRIL CONTRACT IS BETTER TO AVOID VOLATILITY DECAY AS IT IS EXPECTED IN COMING WEEKS
(ANOTHER REASON FOR MARKET REBOUND)
BIG GAME BEING PLAYED!!!! WHERE ARE WE HEADING? (PART 2)THIS IS THE SECOND PART OF THE ANALYSIS ON NIFTY FALL. IF YOU NOT READ THE PREVIOUS ONE, PLEASE READ THE SAME FOR BETTER UNDERSTANDING. I HAVE ALSO SHARED ITS LINK BELOW.
Exactly as per our prior observation, On 11 October Nifty and Bank Nifty crashed 300/800 Points at opening and thereafter showed a little recovery. However it ll be incorrect to assume any relief as of now.
Now In continuation to the first part, As on 11 October 18, FII has closed their longs amounting to 10K and have further added 6.3K Shorts. Now the earlier shorting has increased to 97K (approx, mind you, on 17 September it was 44K, and Nifty/Bank Nifty fell 400/1100 points to clear that.)
I presume with Dollar Increasing, IT Sector is a direct beneficiary. And whatever long positions FII had in Index were in IT Sector. However over the past 2 days, even IT sector has started falling. Reasons for falling IT Sector despite rise in Dollar? Some general correction, and bad results. Tata Elexi despite being a direct beneficiary of Dollar failed to post good results. Also, Even TCS posted just in line results. Mind you These 2 companies were exceeding the estimates in all the prior results. As a result Tata Elxsi fell upto 15% on Result day and TCS fell upto 7-8% before posting result (probably due to bad expectations of result).
So, those 10K longs might be pertaining to IT sector which are now being closed. So IT sector might stay in pressure in coming days. Nifty 50 has around 12% allocated to IT Sector. Any drastic fall in IT can drag Nifty big way. The market probably recovered today, so FII could exit their 10K Long positions.
Further, as already informed, shorts have been increased to 97K. (6.3K Added today on 11 October)
If we talk about call Options. FII Have net 44K Calls in comparison to mind blogging 210K Puts. Put Call Ratio is 5:1.
So when do you take 5 Puts and just 1 Call?
You already know the answer.
Just one advice : Save your money right now. You will get ample of opportunities in the coming month. Trust me ample of.
Feel free to ask queries and share concerns. These are just my thoughts, and my view to the things going around. I hope it Helps.
Thanks.
BIG GAME BEING PLAYED!!!! FAKE UPSIDE? WHERE ARE WE HEADING? In the past 2 months Nifty has given us many shockers. From the major fall on 21 Sept to the Sudden Recovery of 150/ 800 Points in Nifty / Bank Nifty out of nowhere on 10 October.
FII / DII are large investor and have the money and techniques to move the market in the direction they wish to. In started in September when they began to take Short Positions. Since the beginning of September they were shorting heavily. On 19 September they were net 44K+ Short. The downfall on the next 4 days was used to cover these shorts. Nifty / Bank Nifty fell 400/1000 Points to cover these 44K shorts. Remember this figure.
In October, some of us started thinking that the market is done with the correction and started adding longs. However FII/DII has been still shorting since the very first day of October. In the past week, Nifty touched -300 twice and reached 10200. Now one thing which will amaze you is, even at 10200, FII/DII did not squared off their position i.e. they are still carrying their short position. So the first question arise, when will they close their position?
Mind you, In October FII / DII have having double the number of shorts than in September. (80K i.e. a level which can kill the market)
Today on 10 October, Nifty rose 150 Points and Bank Nifty rose 800 Points. However no panic was shown by the big players, and they continue to add shorts in big numbers and have increased their shorts by 18K+ (i.e. a whopping 25%+). Now, Since FII/DII are the smartest player, each of their move is calculated and they do not make any move irrationally. Their increased shorts only Indicate a big downfall coming up.
Also, answer my prior question, WHEN WILL THEY CLOSE THEIR SHORTS?
1. Market will rise more, making people believe that the bullish time has arrived and when all the bulls have taken long position. Then market will begin to fell. Market might show a maximum of 10550 ( Resistance) or 10640 (38.2 Fibo Level)
2. The Rose of 10 October, will be used by FII/DII to add more short position and increase the average shorting level.
Since they did not close their short positions at 10200. They will close it at a EVEN LOWER PRICE. October being a result result, a bad result of a big Nifty 50 company might lead to panic and market will start falling like a house of cards.
Also, I should mention 2 thoughts I have in mind :
1. Either this market rise will be used by FII/DII to average their Shorting Level, because market will not fall below 10200.
2. Or They expect even lower Levels and want huge money, and thus want to short at every rise!
These are just my thoughts, and my view to the things going around. I hope it Helps.