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BIG GAME BEING PLAYED!!!! WHERE ARE WE HEADING? (PART 2)THIS IS THE SECOND PART OF THE ANALYSIS ON NIFTY FALL. IF YOU NOT READ THE PREVIOUS ONE, PLEASE READ THE SAME FOR BETTER UNDERSTANDING. I HAVE ALSO SHARED ITS LINK BELOW. Exactly as per our prior observation, On 11 October Nifty and Bank Nifty crashed 300/800 Points at opening and thereafter showed a little recovery. However it ll be incorrect to assume any relief as of now. Now In continuation to the first part, As on 11 October 18, FII has closed their longs amounting to 10K and have further added 6.3K Shorts. Now the earlier shorting has increased to 97K (approx, mind you, on 17 September it was 44K, and Nifty/Bank Nifty fell 400/1100 points to clear that.) I presume with Dollar Increasing, IT Sector is a direct beneficiary. And whatever long positions FII had in Index were in IT Sector. However over the past 2 days, even IT sector has started falling. Reasons for falling IT Sector despite rise in Dollar? Some general correction, and bad results. Tata Elexi despite being a direct beneficiary of Dollar failed to post good results. Also, Even TCS posted just in line results. Mind you These 2 companies were exceeding the estimates in all the prior results. As a result Tata Elxsi fell upto 15% on Result day and TCS fell upto 7-8% before posting result (probably due to bad expectations of result). So, those 10K longs might be pertaining to IT sector which are now being closed. So IT sector might stay in pressure in coming days. Nifty 50 has around 12% allocated to IT Sector. Any drastic fall in IT can drag Nifty big way. The market probably recovered today, so FII could exit their 10K Long positions. Further, as already informed, shorts have been increased to 97K. (6.3K Added today on 11 October) If we talk about call Options. FII Have net 44K Calls in comparison to mind blogging 210K Puts. Put Call Ratio is 5:1. So when do you take 5 Puts and just 1 Call? You already know the answer. Just one advice : Save your money right now. You will get ample of opportunities in the coming month. Trust me ample of. Feel free to ask queries and share concerns. These are just my thoughts, and my view to the things going around. I hope it Helps. Thanks.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by prathamaggarwal
26
BIG GAME BEING PLAYED!!!! FAKE UPSIDE? WHERE ARE WE HEADING? In the past 2 months Nifty has given us many shockers. From the major fall on 21 Sept to the Sudden Recovery of 150/ 800 Points in Nifty / Bank Nifty out of nowhere on 10 October. FII / DII are large investor and have the money and techniques to move the market in the direction they wish to. In started in September when they began to take Short Positions. Since the beginning of September they were shorting heavily. On 19 September they were net 44K+ Short. The downfall on the next 4 days was used to cover these shorts. Nifty / Bank Nifty fell 400/1000 Points to cover these 44K shorts. Remember this figure. In October, some of us started thinking that the market is done with the correction and started adding longs. However FII/DII has been still shorting since the very first day of October. In the past week, Nifty touched -300 twice and reached 10200. Now one thing which will amaze you is, even at 10200, FII/DII did not squared off their position i.e. they are still carrying their short position. So the first question arise, when will they close their position? Mind you, In October FII / DII have having double the number of shorts than in September. (80K i.e. a level which can kill the market) Today on 10 October, Nifty rose 150 Points and Bank Nifty rose 800 Points. However no panic was shown by the big players, and they continue to add shorts in big numbers and have increased their shorts by 18K+ (i.e. a whopping 25%+). Now, Since FII/DII are the smartest player, each of their move is calculated and they do not make any move irrationally. Their increased shorts only Indicate a big downfall coming up. Also, answer my prior question, WHEN WILL THEY CLOSE THEIR SHORTS? 1. Market will rise more, making people believe that the bullish time has arrived and when all the bulls have taken long position. Then market will begin to fell. Market might show a maximum of 10550 ( Resistance) or 10640 (38.2 Fibo Level) 2. The Rose of 10 October, will be used by FII/DII to add more short position and increase the average shorting level. Since they did not close their short positions at 10200. They will close it at a EVEN LOWER PRICE. October being a result result, a bad result of a big Nifty 50 company might lead to panic and market will start falling like a house of cards. Also, I should mention 2 thoughts I have in mind : 1. Either this market rise will be used by FII/DII to average their Shorting Level, because market will not fall below 10200. 2. Or They expect even lower Levels and want huge money, and thus want to short at every rise! These are just my thoughts, and my view to the things going around. I hope it Helps.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by prathamaggarwal
43