Gold DowntrendBased on the 1-hour chart of gold trading against the USD, I see a few key points for investors to pay attention to. After a strong rally, gold has seen a significant drop, with the price breaking below both the 34 EMA and 89 EMA, suggesting that a short-term downtrend may be forming.
From a technical perspective, the crossover between the two EMAs has previously been a sign of a trend change, and the current price holding below these lines suggests that selling pressure may continue. This rapid decline could be the result of investors taking profits after the price reached new highs.
Buy
USDJPY: Fluctuating Between Pressure and ExpectationsUSDJPY is hovering around 152.296 after failing to sustain above the key resistance level of 156.438. The EMA 34 and EMA 89 lines currently act as critical "cushions," yet they remain insufficient to alleviate the prevailing downward pressure.
The RSI has dropped to 46.82, signaling weakening bullish momentum and a likelihood of continued short-term downtrend. Should USDJPY break below the EMA 89, the next target could be the deeper support zone at 141.898 – a historical low that has demonstrated its strength in the past.
However, U.S. monetary policy, particularly signals from BofA about a stronger dollar, continues to exert significant pressure on the Japanese yen. Additionally, expectations of the FED maintaining its hawkish stance further intensify the tension for USDJPY, balancing between medium-term bullish hopes and short-term bearish pressure.
Investors should closely monitor price movements around these critical support levels, as a “breakout” could lead to significant volatility, creating substantial opportunities or risks in the near future.
EURUSD: Downward Pressure DominatesEURUSD is currently trading around 1.04836, remaining in a downtrend defined by the main descending trendline. The EMA 34 and EMA 89 are acting as strong resistance levels, blocking any recovery attempts by the currency pair.
Based on the chart, the resistance zone at 1.05344 is a critical level that needs to be broken to confirm bullish signals. However, with reports from BCA suggesting that the recovery of the Euro and European equities might soon come to an end, the likelihood of increased downward pressure is high. If the price fails to hold above this zone, EURUSD may return to test the support near 1.03844, which has proven to be a solid support area in the past.
Should selling pressure persist, a break below 1.03844 could push the price lower towards the support zone around 1.03000. Traders are advised to closely monitor price action at these resistance and support levels to adjust their trading strategies accordingly.
Gold Prices Rise Steadily, Testing the 2,658 USD/oz LevelGold prices increased for the third consecutive session, reaching a one-week high of 2,647.43 USD/oz on November 20, supported by its role as a safe-haven asset amid escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine. However, the rally was capped by a recovering USD, making gold more expensive for international buyers.
The 2,551 level has been confirmed as strong support after two successful tests, prompting a sharp rebound. The 2,658 level is the next immediate target for prices to break, while the 2,789 zone is the next potential peak if the bullish trend persists.
Following a significant correction from the previous high, gold may form a double-bottom pattern around 2,551, signaling strong buying pressure. Currently, prices are testing the 2,658 resistance level and show signs of continuing the upward trend if this level is breached. If a pullback occurs, the 2,652 zone (EMA 34) will serve as an essential support level to watch.
GBP/USD Strong Bearish TrendWith the price moving below both the Bollinger Bands and the SMA. The expansion of the Bollinger Bands indicates that volatility is increasing, a typical sign in a deep downtrend.
The pair has been in a downtrend since October, with new lows being set continuously. The closest support level we can observe is around 1.25730, which the price has recently touched. A break of this level could lead to a further decline, while a positive reaction here could provide an opportunity for a short-term technical recovery.
In the current market environment, based on what I see from the charts and my understanding of the economic factors affecting GBP/USD, my personal view is that the downtrend of the pair is likely to continue. The increased volatility and the price continuously setting new lows are clear signs that selling pressure is taking over.
I expect that any price recovery will likely be quickly sold off in the current downtrend. Upcoming economic events and policy statements from Central Banks may provide additional data to assess the pair's outlook in more detail, and I will continue to monitor closely and adjust my trading strategy accordingly.
Sideways Trading Amid Lack of TrendOn the 1-hour chart of EUR/USD, the price is trading between the 34 and 89 EMAs, indicating a sideways market in the short term. The lack of a strong uptrend or downtrend suggests that investors may be waiting for more data or news that could impact the euro or dollar.
From my technical analysis perspective, the market looks like it will continue to trade in the current range until there is more economic data or important political events to establish a clearer trend.
Gold Fluctuates: Geopolitical and Inflation ImpactThe 4-hour gold chart clearly shows the volatility caused by geopolitical and economic events. Gold prices have recovered from lows due to inflation concerns from the new US tax policy, indicating that safe-haven demand for gold remains strong.
Currently, the key support level is at $2,603/oz, with resistance at $2,634/oz. Any break of these two levels will indicate the next direction for gold prices.
Market Comment: Based on technical analysis and current situation, I expect gold prices to increase in the short term. Inflation concerns from the new US tax measures could weaken the USD, supporting gold prices. If prices hold above $2,603/oz and continue to react positively, I expect a further rally, possibly reaching or exceeding $2,634/oz.
USDJPY: "Tug of War" Within Key Zones, Signals Remain UnclearOn November 26, USDJPY finds itself in a tug of war between buyers and sellers, hovering around 153.882. Two key zones are constraining price movement: resistance at 155.878, like a "steep mountain" that's hard to climb, and support at 153.592, acting as "solid ground" preventing deeper declines.
The EMA 34 (154.480) and EMA 89 (154.102) form a "connecting thread," both supporting and restraining the price in a state of balance. Failure to break resistance may result in USDJPY "free-falling" toward lower support levels. On the other hand, a breakout above 155.878 could serve as a "ticket" to higher price levels.
Amid rising U.S. bond yields and the Bank of Japan's cautious stance, the market is waiting for clearer signals. Traders should prepare plans for both scenarios to avoid being caught off guard.
EURUSD: Weak at Resistance, Potential for Further DeclineEURUSD remains under pressure from the bearish trend, hovering around 1.04686 after a mild recovery from the support zone of 1.03878. However, the strong resistance at 1.05284 proves to be a "formidable wall," with the EMA 34 (1.05095) and EMA 89 (1.05979) acting as significant barriers to upward momentum.
Bearish signals persist, with the descending channel serving as a "slippery slope" that EURUSD struggles to climb. Failure to break through the 1.05284 resistance could trigger a significant drop, pushing prices to retest the 1.03878 support or even lower to 1.03000.
The strengthening USD, following Trump's tariff announcements, has added pressure to EURUSD as safe-haven demand rises and economic strain mounts in Europe.
XAUUSD Faces Pressure from China and USDChina has recently discovered a new gold mine, potentially reducing its future demand for gold, which could push gold prices lower. Meanwhile, Trump’s election victory has strengthened the USD, adding additional downward pressure.
Currently, XAUUSD is hovering around 2,627.275 after a recovery from a low near 2,605.310. However, the price was rejected at the strong resistance zone near 2,700, signaling a significant hurdle as the previous upward trendline has been broken.
The EMA 34 (2,653.133) and EMA 89 (2,585.826) are acting as potential support levels but also indicate that the bullish momentum is fading. If the price fails to hold above the EMA 34, a deeper decline towards the 2,560 support zone could occur, especially as selling pressure intensifies.
Downtrend and Signals at EMA 89Currently, the price is approaching the EMA 89, a classic sign of a downtrend. This is confirmed by the moving averages, where the EMA 34 has crossed below the EMA 89, a bearish signal.
However, what is noteworthy is that each time the price approaches the EMA 89, it reacts strongly. This tells me that investors may be using this level as a buying opportunity in the hope that the support level will hold.
Possible Test of Major SupportThe EUR/USD chart shows a clear bearish trend, with the price moving within a steady downtrend channel, being pushed down after each approach to the upper line of the channel.
Recently, it seems that the price has tested the resistance level in the resistance area but failed and was rejected strongly, which shows the strength of the selling pressure in this price area.
From the current price position, the next important support point is located at around 1.03500. If the price continues to decline and breaks this support level, it could lead to a deeper decline.
Overall, the current trend for EUR/USD is negative, and traders should be wary of the possibility of further declines. Keeping a close eye on the support and resistance levels will help determine the appropriate times to enter or exit the market.
New Gold Mine in China: Aftershocks in the Gold MarketWhen analyzing the daily gold chart, I noticed that a long-term uptrend has been reversed with a clear break below the rising channel line. This tells me that the market may be preparing for a new bearish phase. This decline occurred even as there was news from the US and other major economies on inflation and monetary policy, which would normally have a strong impact on gold prices. In addition, China's discovery of a gold mine with estimated reserves of over 1,000 tonnes in Hunan province is not only a geological event but could also be a major mover in the global gold market.
With gold prices failing to hold the 34 EMA and falling further, the next support area I see is around $2,520 to $2,560/ounce. This will be a key point to see if gold will continue its downtrend.
Deep Downtrend and Gap AnalysisThe GBP/USD 4-hour chart shows a clear downtrend, with price consistently moving below both the 34 and 89 exponential moving averages (EMAs), which is a clear indication of the strength of the current downtrend. These EMAs are also acting as strong resistance levels, preventing any further price recovery.
From the chart, it appears that a gap has been created during the price decline. In the short term, if price starts moving back to “fill the gap” and breaks above this level, it could signal a reversal or at least some stabilization before resuming the current trend. However, if price continues to fall and fails to return to fill the gap, this would further reinforce the downtrend and could test lower support levels.
Gap Analysis and Gap Filling PotentialThe EUR/USD chart shows a gap, which occurs when the price jumps across a certain range without any trading taking place between the two prices. Currently, the price pattern suggests that there is a possibility of a gap filling, meaning that the price could move back to fill the gap in the near future.
This usually happens when the market reacts to a sudden and unsustainable price move. The gap filling is likely to occur if EUR/USD continues to decline and approaches the key support level at 1.0400, a point where many traders may use to re-price or place new buy orders. This is an important move to watch, as it could influence the short-term trend and momentum of the market.
Gold Rebounds Strongly After US ElectionThe current chart shows that gold has made an impressive recovery after two consecutive weeks of losses, with a clear increase, marking an increase of $135/ounce in the past week. This comes amid a gradual replacement of the pessimism following Donald Trump's election victory by renewed optimism among traders and experts.
Through chart analysis, it is clear that gold is in a strong recovery process. The short-term EMA has crossed above the long-term EMA, indicating a positive trend reversal. This is in line with the results of the latest Kitco News survey, where the majority of experts (89%) and retail traders (66%) predict that gold prices will continue to rise in the coming week.
Looking ahead, I expect this optimism to continue to support gold prices, at least in the short term.
Gold Surges: Political Momentum and New OutlookAmid the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict, gold witnessed a sharp increase in price, closing at $2,716/ounce, reflecting strong demand for safe-haven assets. This recovery was evidenced by the price of gold breaking above both the 34 and 89 EMAs, indicating a reversal from the previous downtrend and opening up a positive outlook for prices in the short term.
I assess that global political factors along with the upcoming US economic policy will continue to be the main factors affecting gold prices. Investors should pay attention to these developments when making investment decisions in the current context.
EUR/USD Faces Strong Bearish Pressure: Is 1.0390 a Stop?The EUR/USD chart is currently showing a clear bearish trend as the price continues to stay below both the Bollinger Bands and the SMA. In particular, the downward cross of the SMA by the price line indicates that the bearish momentum is still very strong.
From a technical perspective, the next important support level could be at 1.0390, if the downtrend continues. It will be important to monitor whether EUR/USD can stabilize and recover at this level, or if it continues to decline. The recovery could be difficult as the short-term moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger Bands are still above the current price, forming strong resistance.
Overall, the current trend shows challenges for the euro, and I will continue to closely monitor the technical indicators to adjust my trading strategy accordingly
USDJPY Climbs, Testing Resistance at 155.829 On November 23, USDJPY maintains its "climbing" stance, hovering around 154.762, with the two EMAs (154.709 and 154.102) serving as steady support, like loyal companions.
The big challenge lies at the resistance zone of 155.829 – will USDJPY "break through" and head straight toward 157.000? If not, a slip back to 154.000 will be the next test of resilience.
The MACD flashes a green signal, hinting at a resurgence of buying momentum. Under the influence of high U.S. bond yields and the dovish stance of the BoJ, USDJPY resembles a "mountain climber," ready to push higher but cautious with every step. Remember, every scenario demands a solid plan!
XAUUSD Strong Recovery, Approaching Resistance at 2,790.537 On November 23, XAUUSD continues its strong recovery from the support level of 2,557.165, currently trading around 2,716.335, supported by EMA 34 (2,656.463) and EMA 89 (2,583.958).
The price is approaching the critical resistance zone at 2,790.537. If it breaks above this level, the next target will be in the range of 2,850 - 2,900.
Conversely, if the price declines, EMA 34 will serve as a key support level to watch. The current upward momentum is reinforced by safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical tensions and the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates.
Traders should focus on price action around this resistance zone to determine the next direction.
EUR/USD: Bearish Pressure Continues, 1.0560 Is KeyEUR/USD on the 1-hour chart is currently showing signs of a slight recovery from the lows around 1.0520. However, the main trend is still tilted to the downside as the EMA 34 and EMA 89 continue to lie above the price, reflecting that selling pressure has not abated.
Personally, I think the bearish trend is still dominant and the 1.0560 area will be the deciding point whether the exchange rate can continue to recover or not. If it fails to overcome this resistance area, the possibility of EUR/USD continuing to fall to the 1.0520 area and even deeper is very high.
EURUSD Drops Sharply, Awaiting a Test of Support at 1.03869 Today, EURUSD continues its downward trend, trading around 1.04186, under pressure from EMA 34 (1.05248) and EMA 89 (1.06202).
The price is consolidating within a narrow range, with a high probability of testing the key support at 1.03869. If the price recovers, the resistance zone at 1.05167 will be a crucial level to break for confirming a bullish signal.
However, selling pressure remains dominant, reinforced by rising U.S. bond yields and weak economic data from the ECB.
Traders should closely monitor price action around these support and resistance levels to adjust their trading strategies accordingly.
Will $2,640 Hold Amid Volatility?After a strong rally, gold is facing some downside pressure from its new highs. Specifically, the daily chart shows that gold has hit a key resistance level at $2,678/oz and is currently showing signs of a slight recovery.
Personally, I believe that gold is still in the accumulation phase after a strong rally, and the selling pressure may not be over yet. The next important support level to watch is $2,640, which corresponds to the 0.618 Fibonacci level. This will be the deciding point whether gold continues its downtrend or starts to recover. If gold fails to hold this support level, we could see a deeper decline towards $2,600/oz.
Overall, given the current situation, I advise investors to be cautious and prepare for a scenario where gold could fall further if the next support levels are not held. At the same time, investors should also closely monitor market developments to quickly update and respond promptly to changes in gold price trends.