Niftybank moments for option trading 19/nov/2024Niftybank moments for option trading 19/nov/2024
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CALL
Range breakout signal plus confirmation is observedExtraodrinary shake out candle and raising prices indicates
1. Range resistance line as first target
2. futher targets drawn may also achieved after supply absorption at range top
long consolidation already removed maximum supply at these levels
shakeout candle tested supply at bottom comfortably
sector support gives addtional confirmation
TATA communications - retest at demand zoneboth major and minor pitchforks showing the least resistance path of price is to go up.
1880 to 1900 appears to be a minor resistance
bullish price action is valid even if bars go along lower line of minor pitch fork.
but expecting a good bullish bar soon towards minor resistance
price closing below the lower line of minor pitch fork - SL can be taken
Channel Pattern Breakout & Big Move of Bank NiftyChannel Pattern Breakout:
A channel pattern in technical analysis refers to the price movement of an asset within two parallel trendlines, with the upper trendline acting as resistance and the lower trendline acting as support. A channel pattern breakout occurs when the price of the asset breaks above the upper trendline or below the lower trendline.
When a channel pattern breakout occurs, it is seen as a significant event by traders and analysts. The breakout suggests a potential change in the prevailing trend and often leads to increased trading volume and volatility. Traders may interpret a breakout above the upper trendline as a bullish signal, while a breakout below the lower trendline may be considered a bearish signal.
You can check my previous ideas for reference. Trend Is completed.
#kuldeepchauhan
Nifty: Chart set up and trading strategyNifty
- Nifty has given a breakout from the Blue box and is now trading in the yellow box
- 252 day EMA @ 17396
- 63 day EMA near 17540
- Line of Resistance 17620 odd levels around 20 April 2023
- 21 day EMA around 17240
- Lower level of Yellow box 17220 odd levels
- RBI Policy Announcement on 6th April 2023
- Result Calendar to begin soon
View: Rangebound for the next 2 weeks
Trading Strategy: Short Strangle for Nifty 13 April / 20 April expiry
Expected trading range for Nifty till 19th April 2023
- 17620 on the upside
- 17240 on the downside
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Disclaimer
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
OP Coin analysis on daily TF with supp resis & fib OP Spot call
All supp and resis lvl are drawn in chart keep an eye if you are interested to grab som OP coin in your spot wallet.
For Future trade there is very low volume so do trade in spot for safe side see the chart closely and comment your fav coin if you wanna see the analysis of that coin
Nifty: But I still haven't found what I'm looking for...Nifty
Yesterday if we observe in daily candlestick charts Nifty formed a Doji candle - suggesting indecisiveness.
Today on a 15 min candle we observe Nifty struggling to stay above yesterday's high as of now.
Based on data analysis, FIIs were once again seen selling Index Futures. That makes it clear why Nifty has struggled so far. Now that Nifty is near their cost, will we see FIIs covering their Shorts?
Mind you the Long:: Short ratio of FIIs in Index Futures is 1::7.8 This ratio is similar what I have seen in early Mar 2020, 3 weeks before the Lock down announcement.
Either they know something that we don't know or we might see them covering their short in a day or two.
For Bulls to have any hope, Nifty needs to above 17131 odd levels and sustain above 17065 for 2 more days thereafter.
Plan your trade accordingly and focus on managing your risk.
Reliance: Chart set up and trading strategyReliance
We are looking at Daily chart of Reliance Industries
Observations
- 2420-2450 has the potential to act as resistance
- One may also look at the Red Line of Resistance as potential supply zone
- 2180-2220 has the potential to provide support to the stock
- The Green Line of Support comes around 2163
Given the chart setup,
My view : Rangebound between 2220-2450
My trading strategy: Short strangle strategy for Mar 2023 series
Sell 29 Mar 2500 Call option &
Sell 29 Mar 2200 Put option
Understanding risk profile and reward potential
The strategy has a profit potential of approximately 14.5% till 29 Mar 2023 on Margin requirement and has in built loss protection
- for a fall up to 2142 on the downside and
- for a rise up to 2558 on the upside
Review points for me
2220 on the downside &
2450 /2485 on the upside
The review points should give ample scope to adjust / exit in case view is getting invalidated.
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Disclaimer
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
Nifty: Nifty expiry Target of 17564 done for us!!!Nifty
17564
If you have been following me,
Nifty has respected most of the levels identified with the help of Technical Analysis
The yellow zone above 18000 has been drawn long back. You can check my previous post
Thereafter, I have been suggesting this case: if Nifty starts trading below the blue line then probability is very strong for Nifty testing the red line.
I had given a figure of Nifty closing below 17836-17854 odd levels could be a cue of Nifty testing 17564.
We cannot time the market but when time comes we can sure make the most of it.
I was expecting this test to happen on Thursday but market has it's own way. It has done that today itself. However it gave ample opportunity to entry. We had positioned earlier with a Bear Call Spread strategy. When Market gave signals by breaking below the Blue line we took some aggressive bets as well by Buying Mar series Put options as well. Yesterday Nifty closed a tad below 17836 levels at 17826.
Results are in front of you... How doing your study well can reward you... We have booked profits in stages today with complete profit booking done when Nifty came to 17564
This is not a case of any fresh trade but a post to make you understand that when times are tough study will help you and can keep you ahead .
Invest your time in learning...!!!
Trust my analysis has been of help...🙏
Like and Follow To trade with me...!!!
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Nifty: How I am looking at closing. Did my analysis helped? Nifty
- When Nifty was at 18060-18065 odd levels short was recommended.
Currently Nifty is down 170 odd points.
For Positional play, today's close is very important
- Watch out for 17860-17800 odd levels on the downside. If taken down, it could trigger more selling pressure. Bears might start tightening their grip
- Between 17860-17965 odd levels and the Battle of Bulls and Bears is still in balance
- above 17965 Bulls might have an upper hand
- going forward closing above 18035 on daily charts and I would consider exiting my short position
- below 17800 doors might open up for fall up to 17484 odd levels
Do Like and Share
Follow for more trading ideas from me
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Disclaimer
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
Nifty: Budget time and chart set upNifty
Chart set up
- In the last 2 days Nifty has closed in positive territory, however it has found it difficult to close above 50% of last red candlestick which comes at 17740 odd levels
- a lot of resistance between 17740-18140
- on the lower side Nifty has a risk of falling towards 17331 / 17188 / 17096 odd levels
Derivative Data
- FIIs have gone in to the Budget day with negative bias
My view
Given the data and chart set up, I'm not too optimistic about the reaction to Budget announcement.
Trading strategy
I would be playing this market defensively.
- Trade with low capital
- Reduce Long positions
- Take calculative short positions which would have inbuilt protection till 18250 odd levels
Trust you would find the analysis and insights helpful.
Take care and play safe
Disclaimer
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
NIFTY VIEW FOR 9 JANUARY As we discussed in previous idea , if nifty break 18000 level we may see more selling to 17900-800 levels , as it did in friday trading session.
Now , you can see simple Resistance and Support area in the chart , we may expect this week in this zone , so try to buy at support level and sell at resistance level
let price make a reversal pattern at the support area or a Bullish candlestick pattern for the confirmation so that we can take entry at right time
or
we can use indicator for confirmation to activate entry
make sure to maintain your stoploss short
Nifty: Wait for clarity to emerge before directional trade Nifty
On 29 Dec expiry day, I had suggested a Long trade which was squared off once Nifty touched 21 day EMA. It's there in the timeline.
Now, we are looking at Daily candlestick chart pattern
1. Nifty yo-yoing between 21 day EMA (Currently around 18252) and 63 day EMA ( around 18083)
2. Given breakdown below the blue trend line and now retesting it
3. Resistance area blue line and 21 day EMA
4. 63 day EMA and yellow horizontal zone providing support for time being
5. No clear direction in Nifty as of now...
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Trigger points that can give direction
- Result season to begin soon
- Budget expectations to be built in
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We have a non directional trade still active which is in profits of roughly 76 points as of now. We continue to hold it and look to adjust in case we sense a direction emerging.
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In case of a Breakout we are looking at 18720 odd levels as our target level
in case of a breakdown we are looking at a possibility of roughly 17294 odd levels.
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To trade with me, Do Like and Follow for getting more trading ideas like these...!!!
PLs note: Logic behind using 21 day EMA and 63 day EMA instead of standard 20 day EMA and 50 day EMA
- In a month we have 30 days.
- barring Saturday / Sunday we have roughly 22 days
- 1 holiday session factored in per month
- That gives us 21 trading sessions in a month
- Multiply by 3 months we get 63 days
For me, this represents 1 month and 3 month average trade more precisely, than standard 20 day EMA and 50 day EMA. You are free to follow your own instincts and what works best for you...!!!
Trust you find this useful.
Take care & happy trading...!!!
Disclaimer
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- I have been wrong in the past and can be wrong again in future too
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
Asian Paints: How to play a channelAsian Paints
The Chart set up
- Since Oct 2022 the stock has been trading in a channel
- chart is not strong but with crude prices stabilizing at lower side it favors the sector as oil is one of the major raw material.
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Trading plan
One way to trade this is : Wait for the stock to give a sustained breakout from the channel. Ideally a 3 day close beyond the channel limits should be good cue. Then play for the size of the channel in that direction (roughly 150-180 points in the direction of breakout can be looked as target in this case)
Second way to trade this
Play for a Non directional trade
The limits of the channel are roughly 3240-3244 on the upside and 3018-3030 on the downside
Given the set up, consider a short strangle strategy to start with.
Sell 3250 Call and
Sell 3000 Put
In case stock moves out of range, have a plan to Adjust your strategy to a directional one.
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Understanding reward potential and risk profile
In scenario 2:
The Strike Price chosen covers the known risk (Channel limits)
It provides a profit potential of approximately 13400 per strategy lot (approximately 11.5% ROI on margin requirement). Take advantage of time decay in case the stock stays within the range.
In addition, there is in built protection against loss for a fall up to 2933 on the downside and 3317 on the upside till 25 Jan 2023 expiry day.
This should give ample scope to adjust strategy in case stock moves out of range.
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Do let me know if you find the analysis and insights helpful.
To trade with me Like and Follow for more trading ideas like these...!!!
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Disclaimer
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- I have been wrong in the past and can be wrong again in future too
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be