ONGC: Chart set up and trading strategy
ONGC
Observations
- we are looking at daily candlestick chart pattern
- In Jan 2023 stock faced resistance around 151-152 odd levels
- mid Feb we see a breakout
- currently the stock is holding on above 151 odd levels
set up opens up doors for upside up to 166-168 odd levels
SL If stock is closing below 150 on daily charts
I have gone with a trading strategy which gives me complete protection below 152.
Focus on your Risk Management and plan your trade accordingly.
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Disclaimer
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
Calloption
Favourable RR OPTIONS in ONGCTechnical Analysis -
1. Falling channel breakout above DZ turned SZ
2. Going from lower range to higher range of rising channel
3. Sustaining above 20EMA & towards 200 EMA
4. OI data supportive - A Short Covering is to be seen after Long Buildup wipe out last 2 days Short Buildup
Go long in ONGC by buying CE -
1. ENTRY / TARGET as per spot chart - 139.2 / 144
2. SL using spot chart - 138
3. RR - 1:4
4. Strike Price - ONGC 25 AUG 140 CALL (or a little OTM as per your risk taking capacity)
Other considerations -
1. Considerably good result (might not be as per expectations)
2. Huge demand still to be seen given the dividend ex-date on 18th Aug'22
3. Avoid this trade if opens Gap Up or Gap Down by 1%
This is for educational purpose for others & not a recommendation. Please do a thorough analysis of your own before entering the trade.
Bank Nifty - My trading SetupI always follow the KIS (Keep It Simple) principle in my trading. I simply trade what my chart says.
Bank Nifty has been trading in an upward rising channel. So, which side to choose (bullish/bearish) is self explanatory.
But, let me just put it out for you. As you may see on the chart that the upper channel line is acting as a good resistance and the lower channel line is acting as a good support. I wait for the price to touch either the upper line or the lower line. I sell CE once it takes a U turn from upper line and similarly I sell PE once it deflects from lower channel line.
The center line acts as a neutral but important zone. A reversal from this line means CE selling and a strong crossing above it means PE selling.
Trades can be taken based on how the move behaves on a 15min time frame.
But this is not a HOLY GRAIL and is not that easy as it seems. Markets are supreme and need not follow what we think or have decided. Hence, always be alert and change/cut your position accordingly and do no hesitate from taking a loss.
Disclaimer: Do not simply dive into trading acc to what has been told above, do your own due diligence, put your own brain to it and then decide your levels/positions/setup. The idea behind sharing this was to impart knowledge/perspective to look at charts and not a recommendation.
Happy Trading!! :)
Nifty: Game of Positions F&O Data analysis
Note this is not a recommendation for any trade. But just an analysis of Index F&O trade data for today.
Trading in Futures & Options involves real money and is very risky. It is like a 3 way fight between retail traders, FIIs and Proprietary traders.
In a war, it is important to understand your opposition's strength and weakness. In many war history, we can take lessons, that if you understand your opposition well, you can have a better chance of winning even if you are not as strong as them.
This is to help you understand how various market participants have positioned themselves for tomorrow.
Futures data
• Retail participants added Net 2.22 K Long contracts & squared off Net 1.39 K Short contracts
• FIIs squared off Net 19.37 K Long contracts & added Net 6.93 K Short contracts
• Pro traders added Net 17.79 K Long contracts & squared off Net 3.77 K Short Contracts
Call option
• Retail traders added Net 6.38 Lakh Call Longs & added Net 4.44 Lakh Call shorts
• FIIs added Net 14.49 K Call Longs & added Net 70.54 K Call short
• Pro traders added Net 61.48 K Call Longs & added Net 1.99 Lakh Call shorts
Put option
• Retail traders squared off Net 14.61 K Put Long & added Net 68.42 K Put shorts
• FIIs added Net 39.89 K Put Long & added Net 13.69 K Put shorts
• Pro traders added Net 61.98 K Put Long & squared off Net 359 Put Short contracts
Retail Participants added Index Futures Long and exited from Short positions and in Options are massively inclined towards Positive bias by being Net Call Buyers and Net Put sellers (bias is bullish)
FIIs on the other hand exited from Index Futures Long and added Index Futures Short positions and in Options are Net Call sellers and Net Put buyers
Pro traders have taken long position in Index Futures and exited from Short positions. However, in Options they have a net bearish position. They are major Net Call sellers and Net Put buyers
PCR is at 0.81
Today Nifty index has formed a doji candlestick. However it traded most part of the day around 15820 odd levels (3 hourly candles have a close at 15825, 15821, 15820) and then it fell back to close at 15752.
Prima facie looks like buyers of today are at risk.
In our last Game of Positions, we saw FIIs winning the battle by leaps and bounds. Let's see what we have in store tomorrow.
Important levels
on the lower side 15680 / 15628 / 15450
on the upper side 15820 / 15865 / 15915
Trust you find it useful.
Take care & safe trading...!!!
For trading ideas you can see the links below
Game of Positions: Friday Index F&O Trade data analysis This is not a recommendation.
Trading in Futures & Options involves real money and high risk. Hence there is a need to do more study before you randomly take a decision.
Just like in a game of Chess, when you plan to make a move, you need to factor in opposition's game strategy.
Using the same principle, when trading in Futures & Options, we should be aware of how 3 major participants i.e
- retail participants,
- FIIS
- Proprietary traders
have positioned themselves. DIIs have not been factored in here as they have limited access to F&O trade
Futures data
• Retail participants squared off 142 Long contracts & squared off 2.71K Shor t contracts
• FIIs squared off 5.99K Long c ontracts & added 6.89K Short contracts
• Pro traders added 5.06K Long contracts & squared off 6.20K Short Contracts
Call option
• Retail traders added 4.26 Lakh Call Longs & added 3.91 Lakh Call shorts
• FIIs added 54.92K Call Longs & added 70.17K Call short
• Pro traders added 1.14 Lakh Call Longs & added 1.34 Lakh Call shorts
Put option
• Retail traders added 2.24 Lakh Put Long & added 2.79 Lakh Put shorts
• FIIs added 62.13K Put Long & added 40.61K Put shorts
• Pro traders added 89.54K Put Long & added 67.18K Put Short contracts
- Retail Participants exited from Index Futures shorts and in Options are Net Call Buyers and Net Put sellers (bias is bullish)
- FIIs on the other hand exited from Index Futures Long and added Index Futures Short positions and in Options are Net Call sellers and Net Put buyers (bias is bearish)
- Pro traders have taken long position in Index Futures and exited from Short positions. However, they have hedged their position in Options by being Net Call sellers and Net Put buyers (Neutral)
Let us see who turns out to be the winner in this Game of Positions on Monday.
Important levels for Nifty
Important levels on upper side: 15960 /16030
Important levels on the downside: 15780 / 15628 / 15450
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Disclaimer:
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
- we do our best to ensure that the data we release is complete, accurate and useful. However, because we do not create the data, and because the processing required to make the data useful is complex, we cannot be liable for omissions or inaccuracies
– The user expressly acknowledges that the Data may contain some nonconformities, defects, or errors.
– Neither Indiamarketoutlook nor the author shall be liable for any claim for any loss, or any other damage arising from access to or use of data or information contained herewith.
Infy: Chart set up and trading strategy for July monthInfy
Observation
- After result announcement, Infy goes into consolidation mode for a 2-5 weeks
- it then has rallied 17-27% till the next result announcement (calculation done on a opening or closing basis)
- current rally is measured at roughly 21% so far and another 9 trading sessions to go
- if Infy is to follow the blue channel, then we have be at the top end of the channel
- however if Infy is to follow the red dotted channel, then there is a scope for a price movement up to 1671 odd levels
Given the set up, F&O strategy that one may consider
selling Infy 1660 Call option around 12
The strategy has a max profit potential of Rs 7200/- per lot
More importantly from risk management point of view, it covers risk of rise in Infy price up to 1672 levels till 29 July 2021.
Take care & safe trading
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Disclaimer
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
Nifty: Are you with the trend or against the trend???Nifty
CMP 15853
Observations
- Nifty traded in down trend channel since Feb 2021 till April 2021
- Currently Nifty is trading in Uptrend channel
Now that we have identified the trend, let us look and analyze Futures & Options data for 05 July 2021 and understand how each market participant viz
- the Retail traders,
- FIIs and
- Proprietary traders
have positioned themselves.
Futures Data:
- Retail traders bought 1086 Long contracts & exited from 8397 Short contracts
- FIIs bought 3487 Long contracts and added 4663 Short Contracts
- Proprietary traders booked profits in 1314 Long contracts and added 5060 Short Contracts
Call option data:
- Retail traders added 29.56 K Long Call Contracts and added 69.42K Short Call Contracts
- FIIs added 18.95K Long Call contracts and added 13.34 K Short Call Contracts
- Proprietary traders added 80.38 K Call Long contracts and added 46.13 K Call Short Contracts
Put Option data
- Retail traders bought 3.16 Lakhs Put Long Contracts and added 2.64 Lakh Put Short Contracts
- FIIs added 5.98 K Put Long Contracts and Shorted 21.77 K Put Contracts
- Proprietary traders bought 83.08 K Put Long and Shorted 1.18 Lakh Put Contracts
Retail traders have exited from Futures Short position but still have a negative bias and have positioned in Options against the trend for a fall in Nifty
FIIs and Proprietary traders on the other hand are less active in Futures but in Options have positioned themselves with the trend for more upside to neutral play
Plan your trade accordingly...!!!
Trust, you would find this analysis helpful. If yes then
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But don't just follow me blindly
Learn and identify opportunities independently
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If you have been following me, our strategy is already in place.
Strategy update
Suggested selling 15 July expiry
15700 Put option around 120
CMP 42
Profit of 78 points so far per lot.
Take care & safe trading
Disclaimer:
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
Reliance: Chart set up & trading strategy for July F&O expiryReliance
The stock recently made a high of 2261
On the lower side, 2067 / 2000 are important support levels
Given the set up
One may consider the following Short strangle strategy for July series
Sell 29 July expiry 2260 Call option around 35
Sell 29 July expiry 2000 Put option around 25
Max profit potential of Rs 15000 per strategy lot till expiry (approximately 14% ROI)
Loss in strategy only if Closing on 29 July is either above 2320 or below 1940
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Disclaimer
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
Nifty: Chart set up & trading strategyNifty
Till the time Nifty is above 15760-15780 on a daily closing basis it might slowly look to crawl up
Trading Strategy
Sell Nifty 15 July expiry 15700 Put option currently around 120
The strategy provides an inbuilt risk cover for a fall in Nifty price up to 15580 till 15 July expiry.
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Disclaimer
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
#Banknifty Trade Setup For Friday (30th April)Today Banknifty give the gap up opening and then correct and then range bound.
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So for simple Strategy that we follow.
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If Banknifty cross 34300 then we buy CE.
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If Banknifty goes down below 33390 then we buy PE.
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In Gap up or Gap down condition, we buy on dip and sell on high.
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You can give your suggestions in comment box.
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#Nifty Trade Setup For Monday (30th March)As we see Nifty runs in range bound on Friday.
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Make Doji candle according to this market can give the Gapup Opening.
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We will buy on dip sell on high.
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If Market give the Gapup opening above 14578, the we buy PE.
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If Market give Gap down Opening below 14267 we will buy CE.
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If Market give normal opening then will buy CE after 14600 on the safe side.
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You can give your valuable feedback in the comment box.