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Candlestick Analysis

NIFTY - WHO WILL GET BURNT THIS DUSSEHRA- BULLS OR BEARS?THIS IS THE FOURTH PART OF THE ANALYSIS ON NIFTY -1.24% 2.32% FALL. IF YOU NOT READ THE PREVIOUS ONE 3 POSTS, PLEASE READ THE SAME FOR BETTER UNDERSTANDING. I HAVE ALSO SHARED ITS LINK BELOW. Some Lines I said in the previous post “In the process to up,There has been 2 Gaps created in the past downfall and crossed 2 Fibo support (Mentioned Below) which will stop the market from going up. Resistance 1 - Gap 1 - 10520-10550 Resistance 2 - Fibo Resistance 38.2 - 10650 Resistance 3 - Gap 2 - 10750-10850 Resistance 4 - Fibo Resistance 0.5 - 10860 The Above 4 levels are going to act as major resistance. Even after being optimistic, I do not feel market will be able to cross Resistance 3.” Nifty preached the levels. The first 2 resistances were broken. However the market reversed from the 10700 Levels. It fell a huge 260 Points to close at 10453. FII Data suggest they have only closed 10% of their Index shorts. If 10% can bring so much carnage, what will the remaining 90% do? These resistance levels are going to be the same. Although Resistance 1 is not all that strong now. Candles Formation The last 2 day candles have created a Bearish Engulfing pattern, which an extremely effective bearish pattern. A Major Gap up closing below yesterdays Low shows the sentiment of the market is really not good. Important Event 1. Reliance result – It was announced this week and it was not much good. We can expect some downfall. 2. HDFC Bank Result – To be announced 20 Oct 2018. While Reliance is looking for a Fall. Bad Result of HDFC Bank can impact Nifty badly. Reliance and HDFCs together hold heavy weightage in Nifty and can show us a new low of this series. As i already shared Pullback are short term and short lived. Thus, it was a pullback of 2 days and Bears again came in the driver seat. on Wednesday. Also these pullbacks gives good level to again short the market. Please also note : FII even after covering have 90K Shorts. The fall can be deffer-ed but is certain to come until FII decide to cut their shorts in losses. (which never happen :P) Support Levels Support 1 – Fibo Support 38.2 - 10350 Support 2 – Trendline Support - 10240 Support 3 – Historic 10160 Support 4 – Fibo Support 23.6 – 10000 The Bulls might get roasted this DUSSEHRA and DIWALI. 10K seems near. These are just my thoughts, and my view to the things going around. I hope it Helps. All counter views welcomed if they intend a fruitful discussion. And If Warren Buffet says he still learns, who are we to say or believe that we know all. Lets learn together and Earn together.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by prathamaggarwal
4
ADANI PORTS - JOURNEY OF THE SINKING PORTGuys today we are going to discuss about Adani port initially I would would discuss how it was in a uptrend, there after I will show that how we could have identified that it will turn into a down Trend. (Please open this post in a Separate Tab. And using mouse click on the chart and move cursor to the left to see the remaining part of the chart) Adani port was in a uptrend starting from 2017 initially creating series of higher highs and Higher Lows. In this chart, the first two are the base low and base high. The Lows and High thereafter created are used to draw trend lines / channel which is being followed. The points of reversal have been highlighted along with corresponding pattern they are forming. The share followed a fixed channel for 11 Straight months. The details of Highs and Lows during these 11 months are as below: (refer chart as well) Higher Low 1 – No Specific Pattern here. Normal reversal was here. Since we now have 2 Lows (Base Low and Higher Low) these are used to create a trend line . Higher High 1 – The share was near its its historic resistance and created Hangman pattern (Reversal Pattern) and thereby reversed from here. Higher Low 2 – The Share was near its Lower Channel and created an Inside Bar Pattern which indicated reversal. The share moving up thereafter. Higher High 2 – The share was near Its upper channel and created a Doji (Confusion after a series of uptrend) near the resistance, which indicated Confusion after a series of uptrend. Traders were unsure whether the share will continue its upward trend or not and there share started reversing from here. Higher Low 3 – The shared touched the lower channel and the immediately next candle made a Doji / Hammer but it was formed below the Lower Channel. Doji / Hammer indicates weakness in the ongoing trend. So, though share was trading below lower channel, same could not be considered as a breakdown. Also, the share reversed post this. Higher High 3 – The share showed certain consolidation and confusion in the market. So no specific pattern formed here. Higher Low 4 – In the process to make next Low. The share breached Channel and the next 2-3 candles including one big red candle) was formed below the channel thereby confirming breakdown. The share thereafter created Hammer Pattern and reversed from here. Now although On First December it created a higher Low (which indicates uptrend) it gave a channel breakdown. Thereby giving hints of further breakdown. But Since we always follow multiple confirmations, we would not trade a simple breakdown and would require more surety to ensure the same. The share further moved on make a Higher High 4 and reversed with Bearish Engulfing Pattern. The share then continuously moved down and created a Lower Low. As mentioned in the first part, the first indication was the Channel Breakout and Lower Low gave the second confirmation of downfall coming up. Here we should rely on the confirmation and find a good level to short the share. Since the share is near its crucial support, it would be correct to short this share if : 1. It breaks support with Volume 2. If reverses from Support, we should short near next resistance. The share as expected took support of the major support at 350 and reversed from here creating a Bullish Belt Hold Pattern. Since then the share has formed a channel between support and resistance and moving in between. Shorting near resistance and Going long near Support would have been a good strategy. On 22nd the share broke the support with Volume , there confirming the further breakdown.. Historic Support and Resistance have great significance and such levels are always respected by the shares. Further double confirmation should be used while taking position. Every person has different way of analyzing shares. Some follow Candlestick Patterns, Some follow trend-lines, some follow Elliot Wave and there is nothing wrong with any of these methods. Each of these methods is successful in their own and you need to believe in the strategy you believe and religiously follow it. Just to hold onto your faith and continue with your strategy. Even the basic Candlestick patterns have the ability to reap you awesome results. Thanks, i hope this is Helpful. Keep sharing the list of shares you want an analysis on. Thanks :) PS : All views welcomed if they intend a fruitful discussion. And If Warren Buffet says he still learns, who are we to say or believe that we know all. Lets learn together and Earn together. #JOURNEYOFATRADE
NSE:ADANIPORTSEducation
by prathamaggarwal
7
WHY NIFTY GOING UP? AGAIN A GAP DOWN ON MON (15 Oct)POSSIBLE?THIS IS THE THIRD PART OF THE ANALYSIS ON NIFTY 2.32% FALL. IF YOU NOT READ THE PREVIOUS ONE 2 POSTS, PLEASE READ THE SAME FOR BETTER UNDERSTANDING. I HAVE ALSO SHARED ITS LINK BELOW. Last time we estimated a big downfall in the month of October and believed that IT Sector might stay in pressure as the results of Tata Elxsi disappointed and Number of TCS may also disappoint. Although, There was no downfall today. the top companies of IT Sector behaved in the manner as expected. TCS, Mindtree, NIIT and HCL Tech ended on the negative note and other companies fell initially but recovered and ended with minor gains. However one major thing to see is all the major global markets including Nikkei, Dow Jones, other Index were in Dark Red and even SGX NIfty was in -200 (although I do not believe SGX Nifty is directly related to Nifty but being part of the global market, even it depicts the sentiment of the market). Our Nifty did not showed any Red Colour. FII Data suggest that they have net purchased 7.9K Index Futures and 10.2K stock Futures. Important Event. 1. Consumer inflation stood at 3.77 per cent as against 3.69 per cent in the previous month. This rise in inflation was driven by higher prices of food and fuel along with weakness in the rupee. The retail inflation figure was lower than economists' estimates of 4% and was within the comfort zone of RBI. (Good for Market). 2. Good result of Nifty 50 Company - HUL. 3. Lined up result of Nifty 50 Company in coming week- Infy, Reliance, HeroMotoCorp, HDFC Bank Candles Formation The last 3 day candles have created a Bullish reversal pattern in the form of Morning Star. Interpretation With a rise of Today, FII has also added Longs in Shares and Indexes. We can expect a small pullback rally over here. HUL has result has been great, which will have a positive impact on the market after poor numbers from TCS. In The coming week result of top Nifty 50 companies are there, which will shape the market. In the process to up,There has been 2 Gaps created in the past downfall and crossed 2 Fibo support (Mentioned Below) which will stop the market from going up. Resistance 1 - Gap 1 - 10520-10550 Resistance 2 - Fibo Resistance 38.2 - 10650 Resistance 3 - Gap 2 - 10750-10850 Resistance 4 - Fibo Resistance 0.5 - 10860 The Above 4 levels are going to act as major resistance. Even after being optimistic, I do not feel market will be able to cross Resistance 3. Please note Pullback are short term and short lived. Thus, I personally do not prefer trading the pullbacks. However these pullbacks gives good level to again short the market. Please also note : FII even after covering have 89K Shorts. The fall can be deffer-ed but is certain to come until FII decide to cut their shorts in losses. (which never happen :P) The last time Nifty/Bank Nifty rose 300/800 points, it witnessed a bigger Gap Down the next day. I do not expect the same on Monday. Market might open Flat. These are just my thoughts, and my view to the things going around. I hope it Helps. All counter views welcomed if they intend a fruitful discussion. And If Warren Buffet says he still learns, who are we to say or believe that we know all. Lets learn together and Earn together. Thanks.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by prathamaggarwal
10
WHAT HAPPENED WITH MARUTI? 10000 to 6800 Journey!Maruti reached its 52W high at 10,000 and has been faaling continuously since then. The way Maruti % fell shocked alot of people, However it was not all that difficult to determine the fall and I will share, how I proceeded and made money in Maruti 5.71% . On 25 July, Maruti reached its prior top weeks high zone of 9900-10000 again. It was a good resistance and If it is broken with Good volumes, Maruti can go upto 12K-13K, The next day Maruti reversed from the resistance zone and created a Double Top (as shown in the chart), also the Day Candle formed a Bearish Engulfing Pattern which indicates the start of the downfall. Double Top Pattern is a fairly successful pattern and Share is expected to reach the neckline at 8200-8300 zones before changing its direction. Maruti immediately the next day formed a large 500 points Bearish Candle which gave me good profits, And I continued waiting for my Initial target of 8200 (Neckline). In the meanwhile share gave a lot of green candles, But I since I was already in profits, I had margin of bear some green Candles. Each time Maruti showed a couple of green candle, a Big Red candle wiped out gains forming Bearish Engulfing Pattern repetitively, which posted my confidence. Share reached up to 9000 after that Rose 250 points. I though of squaring off position but the prior experience showed that there has not been 3 consecutive green candles in the past 9 months, So I decided to wait for the next day. Maruti reversed and showed red candles for the next 3 days and formed a 3 Blacks Crows pattern, which is sign of huge fall coming. Near 14 September One Gap Up for formed, but the next day there was a Gap Down thereby forming a Evening Star Pattern. On 19 September, Share finally reached my initial target of 8200 after I squared off and decided to play a LONG STRANGLE, to up my possibilities of winning. I took a Put and a Call at 3% Difference. Soon The share broke the neckline and started to go more downwards, I squared up my call and waited for gains in Put. Every person has different way of Analyzing. But the idea is to hold onto your faith and continue with your strategy. Even the basic Candlestick patterns have the ability to reap you awesome results. Thanks, i hope this is Helpful. Keep sharing the list of shares you want an analysis on. Thanks :)
NSE:MARUTIEducation
by prathamaggarwal
14
NIFTY OBSERVATION 2:- nifty had resistance (R1) at 1935 to 11015 which was formed by Gap created at Feb panic and resistance (R2) at 11137-11170 which was "all-time resistance". we have seen a indecision ( spinning top ) in nifty which was a strong bearish sentiment catalyst but for supporting nifty, we have two small fresh gaps which act as support. we can see old big gap vs new small gaps following days which declares winners bulls(all-time new highs) OR bears (2018 lower lows)
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by harshahacks