Candlestickpattern
ACC (Bearish)ACC:
Industry: Cement and Cement Products
The stock is discounted at 17% from all time high levels.
Daily Chart:
1. Respecting its falling trendline
2. Forming RSI Bearish Divergence (Stock is forming HH and RSI is forming LL)
3. Formed Doji and Shooting Star (bearish candles) on trendline
Addl Points:
1. FII/FPI have decreased holdings from 13.76% to 12.75% in Mar 2022 qtr
2. Mutual Funds have increased holdings from 8.85% to 9.23% in Mar 2022 qtr.
Notes:
The above analysis is just for educational purpose.
Price Action Analysis with Candlesticks(Part-1)
Price is the cumulative result of all market information. Hence, technical analysts use price charts and chart patterns in their market study. candlesticks have become the most popular chart type for price action analysis.
we have 3 methods to identify price action with candlesticks.
1.One Price Bar (Pin Bar)
2.Two Price Bars (Inside and Outside Bar)
3. Three Price Bars (MS and ES)
In this post we discussed about One Price Bar only. we can post Remaining 2 concepts later.
High Probability Candlestick Pattern 1: Three Line StrikeAs you read from image description that's pretty much all there is to learn on this pattern.
Thomas Bulkowski in his book "Encyclopaedia of Candlestick Charts" mentions that this pattern predicts higher prices with an 83% accuracy rate.
Do you Remember Nirmala Sitaraman Candle?
Yes that's three line strike which was formed after budget was announced on 1st Feb 2021
Adding Another Example here of Reliance
Note: Candlestick patterns alone are not reliable sometime, so combine them with some indicators like RSI to spot positive divergence on same or lower time frame OR MACD crossover and histogram positive as shown in below example
DISCLAIMER:
There is no guarantee of profits or no exceptions from losses.
The stock and its levels discussed are solely the personal views of my research.
You are advised to rely on your judgement while investing/Trading decisions.
Seek help of your financial advisor before investing/trading.
Investment Warnings:
We would like to draw your attention to the following important investment warnings.
-Investment is subject to market risks.
-The value of shares and investments and the income derived from them can go down as well as up.
-Investors may not get back the amount they invested - losing one's shirt is a real risk.
-Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
-I may or may not trade this analysis
--------------------------(((((LIKE)))))-------------------------------
PVR pin bar candlestick with volumPVR mae pin bar candlestick pattern with volume
and once the low of pin bar broken down... it has given free of 50 points..
never ignore the pin bars with volume
MOTHERSUMI | Swing opportunity channel / trendline support - 19%MOTHERSUMI | Swing opportunity channel / trendline support - 19%
CMP : 242
SL : 226
Target : 285
1:3 risk reward setup
Buy entry in #Cipla @BO1. 850 zone was tested several times and acted as a strong support.
2. From 24th Jan bull run/extended move was seen. Correction was yet to be come after such move.
3. It was into consolidation (correction in time) from last 4 days i.e. from 1st Feb.
4. Also bottoming tail bar, shakeout bar, no range body bar is seen in consolidation , tug of war is fought between bulls and bears.
5. Entry will be above 959 & stoploss will be below the bottoming tail i.e. @938
6. 995-1005 will be the profit booking zone.
RELIANCE: An Invincible (Report of 50% yield)IID-02
RELIANCE INDUSTRY.
REGIME 🔍
Overview
Quantitative analysis
Qualitative analysis
Final words
Overview 📜
{
Reliance is based on a multi-functional business model worth 16T engaged as the biggest player in private sector corporation in India.
These are the basic things that everyone has aware of about founders, historic performance, product recognization, fortune 500, etc.
A simple seductive POV about the company has it's a cruise in the ocean surrounded by small ships and for the long-term view facing waves will be much easier and full of opportunities as compared to the ships with a small market cap.
Let's come to characterization.
1. Revenue Split: 🟢
Refining & Marketing Business (50% of revenue)
It accounts for ~27% of the total oil refining capacity of India
Retail Business (21% of revenue)
The company's subsidiary, Reliance Retail Ltd (RRL) is India's largest retailer by revenue and profitability. It operates about 11,800 stores across India and caters to the demand of over 125 million registered customers
Digital Services Business (Jio) (9% of revenue)
The digital services business is the most profitable with an EBITDA Margin of 33%
The competitiveness in terms of their SWOT principles put out companies like Vodafone from the lane and a fatal threat to Airtel. Reliance sold a stake in Jio Platforms Ltd to make it a debt-free company by March 2021. It sold a 33% stake for ~1.5 lakh crores to 13 marquee investors like Facebook, Qualcomm, Google, KKR, Silver lake, etc. in just 2 months.
Petrochemicals Business (19% of revenue)
It has various petrochemical plants in India located in Dahej, Hazira, Hoshiarpur, Jamnagar, Vadodara, and other cities.
Oil and Gas Exploration & Production Business (0.5% of revenue)
It produces oil & gas in the U.S. shale in 2 separate Joint Ventures with major oil giant Chevron and Ensign Natural resources.
Media & Entertainment (1% of revenue)
Reliance is the owner of Network 18 Media which operates 56 channels in India spanning news and entertainment. It is also in the Film industry through Viacom studios and Jio Studios.
2. Service Area: 🟢
Hydrocarbon exploration and production
Petroleum refining and marketing
Petrochemicals
Textile
Retail
Digital
Financial services businesses
3 Explicit Data: 2022 🟢
Reliance has fragmented into 5 sectors with their 352 subsidiaries.
Recent acquisitions
[
1. 7-Eleven:
From Retail business (21% revenue) Reliance with their subsidiary Reliance Retail Ventures (RRVL) that wholly-owned subsidiary 7-India Convenience Retail, entered into a master franchise agreement with 7-Eleven, Inc (SEI) for the launch of 7-Eleven convenience stores in India
2. Ritika Pvt Ltd:
Reliance Retail Ventures acquired a 52 percent equity stake in Ritika Pvt Ltd alongside with 7-Eleven on October 21
3. JustDial:
RRVL acquired 1.31 crore equity shares of JustDial. It now holds 40.98 percent in Just Dial. Reliance has taken sole control of Just Dial by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) takeover regulations with effect from September 1, 2021.
4. Dunzo:
Reliance Retail acquired a 25.8 percent stake in Bengaluru-based Dunzo, valuing the company at about $800 million. The acquisition is made in January 2022
5. Mandarin Oriental:
Reliance Industrial Investments and Holdings Limited (RIIHL) is going to acquire a 73.37% stake in the premium luxury hotel of Newyork. The deal will be expected to close by March 2022
6. Addverb:
In January 2022, Reliance Retail acquired a 54% stake in domestic robotics company Addverb for USD 132 million (about Rs 983 crore). With this investment, Reliance Retail became the largest shareholder in the company. (Representative Image)
7. Netmeds:
Reliance Industries (RIL) acquired a 60% stake in online pharmacy Netmeds for Rs 620 crore. The acquisition is made in August 2022
]
4 Takeovers 2022 🟢
Key takeaways
Reliance has announced warfare somewhat similar to digital services back in 2016 when they eliminate their rivals Idea & Vodafone bt=y launching JIO.
Now Reliance is ready to take on the likes of Amazon, Netflix, and Hotstar. Reliance has roped Uday Shankar, former Star & Disney India chairman, and James Murdoch, as strategic partners in the growing media business. Currently, Reliance is holding a 73% stake in Network18 which has a joint venture with Viacom18. Viacom18 offers 53 channels and reaches around 600 million Indians monthly.
Digital Services Sector (Growing rapidly at 22% growth)
1. Zee Entertainment and Sony Pictures Networks India (26.6%)
2. Star-Disney (18.6%)
3. Network18 (51%)
We believe that in upcoming quarters Reliance will adapt to higher growth strategies with the help of Digital services as Viacom18 has just started building its sports portfolio and already owns multiple media sports rights.
}
Quantitative analysis 💰
{
Fundamentals 🟢
1. PE: 29 as compared to its peers IOC and BPCL in refineries 4.45 and 6.74 significantly higher.
2. M.Cap: 16T (largest in the nation)
3. D/E Ratio: 0.36 (insignificant)
4. Book-Value: 1.91 (greater than 1) and 90% to its peer IOC (0.56)
5. Sales: Increased by 66% QoQ (Q4)
6. OPM%: 36% QoQ
7. PAT: Surged by 47% QoQ
8. ROCE & ROE: 7.42% vs 9.89% Expected YOY
9. Reserves: Increased by 12.5%
10. Contingent liabilities: Decreased by 48% YoY
Key takeaways 🟢
1. MarketCap is 16T, Revenue is 6.4T, Earnings are 541b (⭐)
2. Dividend Yield: 0.29 vs peers 9% in refineries (⭕)
3. P/E company vs market: 27.6x vs 22x (⭕)
4. P/B company vs market: 2x vs 1.7x (⭕)
5. Future growth: 48% YoY (FY 2021-2022) expected (⭐)
Taking the current position of the company and growth of 48% company earnings is likely to burst from 72,749 Cr to 107,668 in the FY 2022-2023
Technicals 🟢
Behaviour
1. Trend Identification: Uptrend
2. Consistent volume: (Yes) above 26m Weekly
3. Individual Resistance/Support: Weekly 1Billion
4. Individual Support/Demand: 700 million
5. Current Resistance: 220m light one.
6. Market Cycle: Primary Trend with sideway distribution (1W)
7. MA Support: Above 50MA holding twice (Strong)
8. Fib retracement: 0.06
Momentum
1. Multi-frame: Monthly- Retest, Weekly-Upside
2. Wave analysis: Broken the markdown,
3. Higher Highs: Broken the last lower highs
4. Lower-Lows: Rejection
Pattern
1. Structure: Pennant integrated within ascending flag (Bullish)
2. Trendline: 9-month uptrend & 4 wicks support
3. Wick Identification: Not identifiable
FCFM 🟢
What is FCFM?
FCFM is a Fractal Core of Financial Markets developed by CENTURY. It's based on the empirical values taken through compounding markups or markdowns of particular Security.
FCFM helps to evaluate the future valuation of security with the companionship of market participants and circumstances of consecutive +ve corporate earnings.
Current Zones
FCFM Demand/Support: 2050
FCFM Resistance/Supply: 2750
Future Zones
FCFM Demand/Support: 2050
FCFM Resistance/Supply: 2750
FCFM has relevant levels considering the corporate earnings of Reliance Industry has increased QoQ and YoY by 47% and 44% respectively.
}
Qualitative Analysis 💎
{
Management 🟢
The reliance industry has well qualified and full of combativeness leadership team having experience of over 9years. From JIO to Petrochemical their strategical approach of keeping the cruise on lane has pushed the management handful skills higher.
Leadership including Mukesh Ambani (chairman) to Srikanth Venkatachari (Joint Chief Financial Officers) & Alok Agarwal (Joint Chief Financial Officers) have well-sniffed experience towards competitiveness
Ownership 🟢
Promoters: 50.61
FIIs: 24.75
DIIs: 13.62
Government: 0.17
Public: 10.85
Top Shareholders 🟢
1. Srichakra Commercials Llp (11.64)
2. Devarshi Commercials LLP (8.58%)
3. Life Insurance Corporation of India (6.37%)
4. The Vanguard Group, Inc. (2.08%)
5. SBI Funds Management Private Limited (1.63%)
6. BlackRock, Inc. (1.54%)
7. J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Inc. (0.5%)
SWOT Analysis 🟢
1. Strenght
- First private sector corporation in India count in Fortune 500
- Largest Markcap in India
- Reliance has fragmented into 5 sectors with their 352 subsidiaries
- Brand Value and recognizable among major sectors.
- Operational Advantage in refining.
2. Weakness
- Production declining in exploratory blocks
- Not much, Reliance has maintained a quite well health position.
3. Opportunity
- Capex growth for new overtakes and plants
- Acquisitions across the nation
- Emerging into multi-sectors.
- Investing in attractive international oil and gas destinations
4. Threat
- In Refineries, RIL peers have high earnings growth, and dividend distribution is maintained in main earnings.
- In Retail, RIL faces stiff competition from the Future group, D-Mart, etc. Such competition limits market share.
- In telecom, Jio is up against the giants of the industry like Vodafone, Airtel, and Idea. These companies are looking for a chance to regain customers lost to Jio.
}
Final Words 💊
{
RIL is a cruise in the service of charming benefits among shareholders. But cruise needs high maintenance charges and to keep the cruise on lane navigators (promoters) compensation is a key point.
Until the management is strong RIL is the safest one, if the management failed no matter how's the company profit is, Vision is the only key in case of reliance to keep floating and beating the heights of waves. In simple RIL is a competitor for the majority of companies in India and a lot of employment is under RIL. Innovative ideas with good capital budgeting will keep things easy.
The given targets for RIL are relevant as FCFM validates and certifies the required parameters.
FCFM
ABP (Average buy price) / BV (Book Value): 2050rs
FV (Future Value): 3700 Year 2023
}
Report By-
Rajveer Singh Scolia
NSE:RELIANCE
Expecting a Bullish Momentum in CUMMINSIND As per the 2 Hour Chart of CUMMINSIND , we have witnessed a Formation of a “Bullish Harami” on the downside.
Therefore, we are expecting to witness a bullish momentum in the stock in the upcoming trading sessions. Wherein it is being expected to face a resistance initially at around the levels of 936.40, 948.70, and 962.85. Whereas, on the other hand, on the downside levels, the stock may face a support at the level of 910.45, on closing basis.
Closing Price (as on 21.01.22) : 924.50
Disclaimer: No financial information whatsoever published here, should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities, or as advice to do so in any way whatsoever. All matter published here is purely for Educational and Information purposes only and under no circumstances should be used for making investment decisions. Viewers must consult their personal financial advisor before making any actual investment decisions, based on information published here. Any Investor or Trader taking decisions based on any information published here, does so entirely at its own risk. Investors and Traders should bear in mind that any investment in Stock Market is subject to unpredictable market-related risks.
NIFTY 🔵 Simple Analysis with Price Action 🔵NSE:NIFTY
🔴 Doji Has Formed above the support levels which Indicates the possibility of reversal.
🔴 Due to the Sharp fall with the price, Profit booking may happen above the support.
🔴 If price failed to hold above the given support levels 17618, 17532 it will be more bearish in the next trading sessions.
🔴 DISCLAIMER : This is just for educational purpose. Do your own analysis.🔴
Expecting a Bullish Move in LAURUSLABS As per the 2 Hour Chart of LAURUS LABS LIMITED, we have witnessed a Formation of “Bullish Harami”.
Therefore, we are expecting to witness a bullish momentum in the stock in the upcoming trading sessions. Wherein it is being expected to face a resistance initially at around the levels of 508.95, 515.90, and 521.50. Whereas, on the other hand, on the downside levels, the stock may face a support at the level of 494.20, on closing basis.
Closing Price (as on 18.01.22) : 501.50
Disclaimer: No financial information whatsoever published here, should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities, or as advice to do so in any way whatsoever. All matter published here is purely for Educational and Information purposes only and under no circumstances should be used for making investment decisions. Viewers must consult their personal financial advisor before making any actual investment decisions, based on information published here. Any Investor or Trader taking decisions based on any information published here, does so entirely at its own risk. Investors and Traders should bear in mind that any investment in Stock Market is subject to unpredictable market-related risks.
15% Potential in Avadh Sugar | Swing Trade Beautiful 15% Potential Target in Avadh Sugar, don't miss the opportunity.
Reasons to trade -
1. Beautiful Price Consolidation inside channel
2. Channel Breakout
3. 50 EMA support
4. Horizontal Demand Level
5. Breakout of trendline and then retest taken, ready for blasting
6. Breakout with a good volume
Please hit like this really motivates me and pushes me to bring more such analysis.
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Happy Trading
~The Rich Trader
Rohit Sharma
MTech, IIT Guwahati