XAUUSD H4 – Structure hints at corrective moveAfter the recent impulsive move, price is now reacting near a higher-timeframe supply area.
Momentum has started to slow down, suggesting a corrective phase may be developing.
As long as the lower-high structure remains intact, a pullback toward the 4370 region
cannot be ruled out. This would align with a natural mean-reversion move
after the prior expansion.
Time-wise, this scenario fits within the 20–21 January window,
assuming no strong bullish continuation above current highs.
This is a structure-based market observation only.
Not a trade recommendation.
Chart Patterns
Is this a Top in US500 Bearish Divergence + Rising WedgeThe US500 is forming higher highs in price, while the RSI is showing a clear bearish divergence, failing to confirm the move and indicating weakening momentum. Additionally, the price action is developing a rising wedge pattern, which typically signals exhaustion. A decisive close below the lows of the past two sessions could confirm a short-term top, especially amid ongoing negative geopolitical developments.
PNB 1 Day Time Frame 📊 Daily Support & Resistance Levels
These are common pivot-style levels based on recent price action — good for short-term intraday/next-day reference:
Pivot (Daily Reference Zone): ~₹123.5-₹124 range (approximate)
Resistance Levels (Upside Targets)
R1: ~₹124.9–₹125.0 — first resistance zone near recent pivot upside.
R2: ~₹127.1–₹127.2 — higher resistance zone on daily.
R3: ~₹128.4–₹128.5 — extended resistance near recent highs.
Support Levels (Downside Barriers)
S1: ~₹121.5–₹121.8 — immediate support close below pivot.
S2: ~₹120.2–₹120.7 — secondary support zone.
S3: ~₹118.0–₹118.0+ — deeper support if price weakens.
📉 Other Short-Term Levels From Recent Technical Tools
Pivot-based support (Choice India): ~₹101.7, ~₹100.5, ~₹98.4 — longer-range levels (not daily but multi-session reference).
Bollinger bands (approx high/low daily bands): ~₹124.6 upper, ~₹115.0 lower.
🧠 Context from Indicators
RSI around mid-range (~50–65), suggests no extreme in daily momentum right now.
Moving average support around 50/100-day range (₹120–₹117) can act as dynamic support zones.
📌 How to Use These Levels
Bulls watch: Break above R1 (~₹125) for continuation toward R2/R3 (~₹127-128).
Bears watch: If price breaks below S1 (~₹121.5), next support comes around S2/S3 (~₹120 / ~₹118).
Pivot levels near ₹123-124 act as a short-term sentiment line — above is bullish, below is cautious.
Gold Trading Analysis for 12th January 2026Gold had already hit my third target of 4598 and buy level was above 4527.
Scalping : Sell around 4598-4602 area with stop at the high of the rejection candle for a profit of 5 to 10 points or use trailing stoploss. use 15 min time frame. similarly Buy around 4490-4495 area.
Will try to post my analysis from tomorrow as early as 0430 am
NIFTY : Trading levels and Plan for 13-Jan-2025
Timeframe: 15-min
Gap Consideration: 100+ points
Market Structure: Pullback after sharp recovery, now approaching key supply zone
🔼 SCENARIO 1: GAP UP OPENING (100+ points) 🚀
If NIFTY opens above 25,923, it indicates a continuation attempt into the previous intraday supply zone.
Initial reaction near 25,923–26,005 is crucial (previous resistance).
Sustainability above 25,923 with volume = bullish acceptance.
Upside targets:
• 26,005 (last intraday resistance)
• 26,075 (upper resistance / supply zone)
Failure to hold above 25,923 may lead to pullback toward the opening range.
📌 Options Strategy (Gap-Up):
• Bull Call Spread (e.g., Buy ATM CE & Sell OTM CE)
• Avoid naked CE buying near resistance
• Partial profit booking recommended near 26,005+
➡️ SCENARIO 2: FLAT / RANGE-BOUND OPENING ⚖️
If NIFTY opens between 25,743 – 25,816, expect range behaviour and option decay.
This zone acts as Opening Support/Resistance + No-Trade Area.
Wait for a clear breakout or breakdown before initiating trades.
Above 25,816 with hold → bullish continuation possible.
Below 25,743 → weakness resumes toward lower supports.
📌 Options Strategy (Flat Market):
• Short Strangle / Iron Fly (only for experienced traders)
• Focus on theta decay, tight SL mandatory
• Book profits early; do not hold till late expiry hours
🔽 SCENARIO 3: GAP DOWN OPENING (100+ points) 📉
If NIFTY opens below 25,743, selling pressure may dominate initially.
First support to watch: 25,640 (last intraday support).
A bounce from 25,640 can give a pullback trade.
Breakdown below 25,640 opens downside targets:
• 25,545
• Further weakness if momentum accelerates
Avoid aggressive longs unless strong reversal confirmation appears.
📌 Options Strategy (Gap-Down):
• Bear Put Spread or ATM PE buy with strict SL
• Avoid selling PE in trending breakdown
• Trail profits aggressively on downside moves
🧠 Risk Management Tips for Options Traders 🛡️
Never risk more than 1–2% of capital per trade.
Expiry trades require faster exits — do not expect positional moves.
Prefer spreads over naked options to control theta & volatility risk.
Trade only after first 15-min structure is clear.
One good trade is enough — overtrading kills edge.
📌 Summary & Conclusion ✨
NIFTY is currently at a decision zone after a sharp pullback recovery.
📍 25,743–25,816 remains the key battle area.
Directional bias will only be clear after acceptance outside this range.
Let price confirm — react, don’t predict.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is shared strictly for educational purposes only.
I am not a SEBI-registered analyst.
Markets are uncertain, and I may be wrong.
Please consult your financial advisor before taking any trades.
TATA Moters Bullish ViewHere is a clear and professional **Company Overview of Tata Motors** in English:
---
## 📌 Company Overview: Tata Motors
**Tata Motors Limited** is one of India’s leading **automotive manufacturers** and a flagship company of the **Tata Group**. It designs, manufactures, and sells a wide range of vehicles including **passenger cars, utility vehicles, trucks, buses, and electric vehicles**.
---
### 🔹 Founded
**1945**
### 🔹 Founder
**Jamsetji Tata** (Tata Group)
### 🔹 Headquarters
**Mumbai, Maharashtra, India**
### 🔹 Industry
**Automobile Manufacturing**
### 🔹 Company Type
**Public Listed Company**
(Listed on NSE & BSE)
---
## 🚗 What Tata Motors Does
Tata Motors operates across multiple automotive segments:
### 🔹 Passenger Vehicles
* Cars & SUVs (ICE and EVs)
* Popular brands: Nexon, Punch, Harrier, Safari, Tiago
### 🔹 Electric Vehicles (EV)
* Market leader in India’s EV segment
* Nexon EV, Tiago EV, Tigor EV
### 🔹 Commercial Vehicles
* Trucks, buses, defense vehicles
* Strong presence in domestic & international markets
### 🔹 Luxury Vehicles (Global)
* Owner of **Jaguar Land Rover (JLR)**
(Luxury cars & SUVs sold worldwide)
---
## 🌍 Global Presence
* Operations in **125+ countries**
* Manufacturing plants in India, UK, Slovakia, Thailand, and South Africa
* Strong export network
---
## ⭐ Key Strengths
* Strong brand value & Tata Group backing
* Leadership in Electric Vehicles in India
* Diverse product portfolio
* Global presence via JLR
* Focus on sustainability & innovation
---
## 💼 Business Model
Tata Motors earns revenue through:
* Vehicle sales (passenger & commercial)
* Electric vehicle solutions
* Spare parts & after-sales services
* International operations (JLR)
---
## 🌱 Sustainability & Innovation
* Commitment to **clean mobility**
* Investment in EVs, hydrogen, and alternative fuels
* Focus on safety, design, and technology
---
If you want, I can also provide:
* 📊 **SWOT Analysis of Tata Motors**
* 📈 **Financial Highlights**
* 🆚 **Tata Motors vs Maruti vs Mahindra**
* 🧾 **Investor Presentation–style summary**
#Nifty Directions and Levels for Jan 12thGood morning, friends! 🌞
Market Directions and Levels for Jan 12th
Global remains positive, though Indian markets show a bearish bias. Today, the market may open neutral to slightly gap down, as GIFT Nifty trades about 20 points lower.
Current View
> If the market declines initially, the immediate support zone is expected to act as a strong support.
> If price gets rejected from this zone, structurally this could be a 5th sub-wave. In that case, the 5th sub-wave correction may complete here, followed by a bounce of around 38%–61% of the minor swing.
> This is the base structure. However, if price does not reject around the pullback zone, the 5th sub-wave could extend toward 25,550–25,580 for Nifty.
Alternate View
> The alternate scenario suggests a range-bound market with a bearish bias.
> If the market opens positive, we can expect a bounce of around 23%–38%. However, even if a bounce occurs, the broader outlook remains bearish, and the market may return to its opening level by the end of the day.
Market Swings in an Era of Inflation and Interest RatesUnderstanding Market Swings
Market swings refer to significant short- to medium-term fluctuations in asset prices across equities, bonds, commodities, currencies, and alternative investments. These swings can be triggered by economic data releases, central bank announcements, geopolitical events, or shifts in investor sentiment. While markets are inherently forward-looking, they are also highly sensitive to uncertainty. Inflation and interest rates introduce uncertainty because they affect both future cash flows and the discount rates used to value assets.
When markets anticipate stability in inflation and rates, price movements tend to be smoother. Conversely, when inflation accelerates unexpectedly or interest rates change rapidly, volatility rises, often leading to sharp corrections or rallies.
Inflation: The Silent Driver of Volatility
Inflation represents the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services rises, eroding purchasing power. Moderate inflation is often seen as a sign of healthy economic growth. However, high or unpredictable inflation can destabilize markets.
When inflation rises beyond expectations, input costs increase for companies, squeezing profit margins. Consumers face higher living costs, reducing discretionary spending. As earnings expectations weaken, equity markets may correct. At the same time, inflation reduces the real value of fixed income payments, causing bond prices to fall and yields to rise.
Inflation also reshapes sectoral performance. Commodities, energy, metals, and inflation-hedged assets such as gold often outperform during high-inflation periods. In contrast, growth-oriented sectors that depend heavily on future earnings—like technology—can face pressure because inflation diminishes the real value of those future cash flows.
Interest Rates: The Market’s Steering Wheel
Interest rates, primarily set or influenced by central banks, are the primary tool used to control inflation and manage economic growth. Changes in interest rates affect borrowing costs, savings behavior, investment decisions, and currency values.
When central banks raise interest rates to combat inflation, borrowing becomes more expensive. This slows consumer spending, corporate expansion, and speculative activity. Equity markets often react negatively in the short term because higher rates increase discount rates used in valuations, leading to lower present values of stocks.
On the other hand, falling interest rates usually stimulate markets. Lower rates encourage borrowing, boost liquidity, and push investors toward riskier assets in search of higher returns. This environment often leads to equity rallies, rising real estate prices, and stronger capital flows into emerging markets.
The Inflation–Interest Rate Feedback Loop
Inflation and interest rates are deeply interconnected. Rising inflation pressures central banks to increase interest rates, while aggressive rate hikes can slow the economy and eventually reduce inflation. Markets constantly attempt to price in where inflation will peak and how far interest rates will go.
This feedback loop is a major source of market swings. For example, if inflation data comes in hotter than expected, markets may anticipate more rate hikes, triggering sell-offs in equities and bonds simultaneously. Conversely, signs of easing inflation can spark powerful relief rallies as investors expect rate cuts or policy pauses.
Impact Across Asset Classes
Equities: Stocks are sensitive to both inflation and interest rates. Value stocks may perform better during inflationary periods, while growth stocks tend to benefit from low-rate environments. Sudden shifts in rate expectations often cause sharp rotations between sectors.
Bonds: Bonds are directly impacted by interest rates. Rising rates lead to falling bond prices, while falling rates support bond rallies. Inflation-linked bonds gain importance during high-inflation phases.
Commodities: Commodities often act as inflation hedges. Energy, metals, and agricultural products may experience strong uptrends during inflationary cycles.
Currencies: Interest rate differentials drive currency movements. Higher rates can strengthen a currency, impacting export competitiveness and capital flows.
Alternative Assets: Real estate, infrastructure, and precious metals often attract attention as inflation-protective assets, though higher rates can pressure leveraged segments like property.
Investor Psychology and Market Sentiment
Beyond fundamentals, market swings are amplified by investor psychology. Fear of inflation eroding wealth or anxiety over aggressive rate hikes can lead to panic selling. Conversely, optimism about inflation cooling or rates peaking can trigger rapid buying.
Media narratives, central bank communication, and global economic signals play a crucial role in shaping sentiment. Even small changes in wording from policymakers can cause outsized market reactions, highlighting how sensitive markets are to inflation and rate expectations.
Strategic Implications for Investors
Navigating market swings driven by inflation and interest rates requires discipline and adaptability. Diversification across asset classes helps manage volatility. Focusing on quality companies with strong balance sheets, pricing power, and stable cash flows can provide resilience during uncertain periods.
Long-term investors benefit from understanding economic cycles rather than reacting emotionally to short-term fluctuations. Tactical investors and traders, meanwhile, often look for opportunities created by volatility, using inflation data and interest rate signals as key inputs in decision-making.
Conclusion
Market swings are an inevitable feature of financial systems, but inflation and interest rates are among their most influential drivers. Inflation shapes purchasing power and profitability, while interest rates determine the cost of capital and investment attractiveness. Together, they create cycles of expansion, contraction, optimism, and fear.
In an era marked by rapid policy shifts, global interconnectedness, and evolving economic challenges, understanding how inflation and interest rates influence market behavior is no longer optional—it is essential. Those who grasp this dynamic are better equipped to manage risk, identify opportunities, and stay aligned with long-term financial goals despite the inevitable ups and downs of the market.
#Banknifty Directions and Levels for Jan 12thCurrent View
> If the market declines initially, the immediate support zone is expected to act as a strong support.
> If price gets rejected from this zone, structurally this could be a 5th sub-wave. In that case, the 5th sub-wave correction may complete here, followed by a bounce of around 38%–61% of the minor swing.
> This is the base structure. However, if price does not reject around the pullback zone, the 5th sub-wave could extend toward 58,737.
Alternate View
> The alternate scenario suggests a range-bound market with a bearish bias.
> If the market opens positive, we can expect a bounce of around 23%–38%. However, even if a bounce occurs, the broader outlook remains bearish, and the market may return to its opening level by the end of the day.
Gold Trading Strategy for 13th January 2026🟡 GoldTrend Trading Plan
📈 Buy Setup (Bullish Breakout)
🕐 Timeframe: 1-Hour
Condition: One-hour candle closes above 4632
Entry: Buy above the high of the confirmation candle
Targets:
🎯 T1: 4645
🎯 T2: 4657
🎯 T3: 4675
View: Continuation of bullish momentum after acceptance above resistance
📉 Sell Setup (Bearish Breakdown)
🕐 Timeframe: 1-Hour
Condition: One-hour candle closes below 4564
Entry: Sell below the low of the confirmation candle
Targets:
🎯 T1: 4550
🎯 T2: 4535
🎯 T3: 4520
View: Bearish continuation after loss of key support
⚡ Scalping Strategy (Intraday Quick Trades)
🔻 Sell Scalping
⏱ Timeframe: 15-Min
Zone: 4632
Setup: Price tests 4632 and shows 15-min rejection (upper wick / failure to sustain)
Entry: Sell below the rejection candle low
Stop Loss: Above rejection candle high (5–10 points)
Style: Quick momentum scalp near resistance
🔺 Buy Scalping
⏱ Timeframe: 15-Min
Zone: 4564
Setup: Price tests 4564 and shows 15-min rejection (lower wick / support holding)
Entry: Buy above the rejection candle high
Stop Loss: Below rejection candle low (5–10 points)
Style: Bounce trade from strong support
⚠️ Disclaimer
📌 This trading plan is for educational purposes only.
📌 Markets are subject to risk; trade only with proper risk management.
📌 Always confirm with your own analysis before entering any trade.
📌 The author is not responsible for any profits or losses arising from the use of this strategy.
Critical Week Nifty 50: Failed Auction Risk vs. Pre-Budget Reversal ???
**Headline Summary**
This is a make-or-break week for Nifty. We are caught between a bearish "Failed Auction" structure and the high probability of a pre-budget support bid. The price action over the next 48 hours will likely dictate the trend until February 1st.
**1. The Bearish Risk: Pink Box vs. Black Box**
* **The Failed Auction:** The large **Pink Box** represents a major distribution zone. We are currently trading inside the **Black Box** below it.
* **The Threat:** If Nifty closes this week *inside* this Black Box, it confirms a "Failed Auction" for the entire upper range.
* **The Target:** Structurally, a confirmed failure opens the door to the bottom of the balance area at **24,400** (or lower).
**2. The Bullish Case: Pre-Budget Context**
Despite the weak technicals (Double Top/Flat Top), the fundamental context argues against a crash.
* **Time to Budget:** We are just 13 sessions away from the Union Budget (Feb 1st).
* **Sentiment:** Geopolitical setbacks and fading trade deal hopes have pressured the government. Historically, this often leads to reform announcements or market support to prevent a pre-budget crash.
* **Thesis:** It is unlikely the market will be allowed to drift straight to 24,400 just days before the event.
**3. Two Paths to Recovery (The "Trap")**
For the bulls to save the auction, they must reclaim **25,800** on or before Friday. I am watching for one of two scenarios:
* **Scenario A (The Slow Grind):** A "Channel Down" move to the support zone (**~25,500**) followed by a breakout later in the week. This slow grind would indicate bear weakness.
* **Scenario B (The Sharp V-Shape):** A sudden, sharp reversal late Monday or Tuesday. If the market quickly rejects lower prices and snaps back up, it confirms a "Bear Trap" is in play.
**4. Execution: The "Anchor" Strategy**
There are too many "ifs and buts" to trade blindly. Use this specific setup to filter the noise:
* **The Level:** **25,700** (Anchor your VWAP to the **Monday 11:00 AM candle**).
* **The Signal:** This is your line in the sand.
* **Bullish:** Only consider long positions if the market trades *consistently above* this **25,700 Anchored VWAP**.
* **Bearish:** As long as we are below it, the risk of sliding to the bottom of the Black Box remains active.
* **The Goal:** A weekly close > **25,800** is mandatory to confirm the pre-budget rally has started.
**Conclusion**
The bears have the chart structure, but the bulls have the timeline. Watch the **25,700** anchor level closely—if we reclaim it, the "Failed Auction" is negated, and the squeeze to 25,800+ begins.
**Trade Cautiously & All the Best!**
Plz do comment if u need any further clarity..
Sensex - Weekly review Jan 12 to Jan 16The price was falling steadily within a descending channel. The price has to break and sustain above it to move up.
Buy above 83560 with the stop loss of 83440 for the targets 83680, 83800, 83960, 84100, 84260, 84420, 84560 and 83700.
Sell below 83300 with the stop loss of 83440 for the targets 83180, 83040, 82900, 82740, 82600 and 82480.
Always do your analysis before taking any trade.
Flag pole and Wedge🧭 Overview
The chart illustrates a strong bullish impulse followed by a descending wedge formation, a well-known trend continuation structure.
After a sharp upward move (flag pole), price enters a controlled pullback where volatility contracts, forming lower highs and slightly lower or stable lows.
This setup represents a healthy pause in the trend, indicating accumulation and preparation for a potential bullish continuation.
⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻
📊 Chart Observations
1. The initial move shows strong bullish momentum, creating the flag pole with decisive candles.
2. Following the impulsive rally, price starts forming Lower Highs, indicating short-term profit booking.
3. Simultaneously, the lows remain controlled and gradual, shaping a descending wedge structure.
4. Price consolidates within the wedge, reflecting volatility contraction and market balance.
5. The prior flag pole suggests that the dominant trend remains bullish, favoring continuation rather than reversal.
6. As the wedge tightens, pressure builds for a breakout, typically in the direction of the prevailing trend.
7. Confirmation: A valid bullish continuation is confirmed when successive candles close above the upper wedge trendline.
⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻
🟢 Summary
Structure: Flag Pole + Descending Wedge
Market Context: Strong uptrend with healthy corrective consolidation
Trade Bias: Bullish — focus on breakout above the upper wedge boundary
Key Validation: Consecutive candle closes above wedge resistance
⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻
⚠️ Disclaimer
📘 For educational purposes only
🙅 Not SEBI registered
❌ Not a buy/sell recommendation
🧠 Shared purely for learning and pattern understanding
📊 Not Financial Advice
NIFTY 50 – Close Below 50 EMA & SMA | Downside Levels IdentifiedTechnical View:
Over the last two years, NIFTY has consistently shown that a daily close below both the 50 EMA and 50 SMA results in an average correction of 4–5%.
🔍 Current Structure:
Price has closed below 50 EMA & 50 SMA
Rising wedge structure near the top → breakdown risk
Weak follow-through after the recent high
🎯 Downside Levels (Supports & Targets)
🔹 Immediate Support: 25,450 – 25,400
(Recent demand zone & neckline support)
🔹 Target 1 (≈2%): 25,350 – 25,250
(First reaction zone after breakdown)
🔹 Target 2 (≈3%): 25,100 – 25,000
(Psychological level + prior consolidation)
🔹 Extended Target (4–5%): 24,600 – 24,400
(Historical average correction zone based on EMA/SMA breakdowns)
📌 Invalidation / Resistance
Resistance: 25,900 – 26,000
(A move back above this zone negates the immediate bearish view)
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is based purely on technical probabilities and historical behavior. Not a buy/sell recommendation. Use strict risk management.
XAUUSD H1 – Bullish Continuation After Strong Break of StructureMarket Structure Analysis
Trend: Clear bullish market structure on H1.
Structure Signals: Multiple BOS (Break of Structure) to the upside confirm trend strength. Prior CHoCH marked the shift from pullback to continuation.
Impulse Move: Strong bullish displacement broke above previous highs, showing institutional participation.
Current Phase: Price is consolidating above a key demand / prior resistance, suggesting acceptance at higher levels.
Key Levels
Immediate Support: ~4,569 (prior structure / demand zone).
Intraday Support: Minor pullback levels within the recent impulse leg (purple lines).
Resistance / Targets:
TP1: ~4,610 – 4,625
TP2: Extension toward 4,650+ if momentum continues.
Bias & Scenarios
Primary Bias (Bullish):
Hold above 4,569 → look for pullback buys into demand with continuation to higher highs.
Alternative (Caution):
Clean break and close below 4,569 → deeper retracement toward lower H1 demand before bullish continuation resumes.
Execution Notes
Prefer buy-on-dip setups after minor retracements.
Watch for liquidity sweep + bullish confirmation on lower timeframes (M5–M15).
Avoid chasing highs; let price come into structure.
HAL 1 Week Time Frame 📈 Current Price Snapshot (Live / Latest)
HAL price: ~₹4,460 – ₹4,480 per share (India NSE) — trading range today.
1-week return: ~slightly negative/neutral movement.
🔎 Short-Term Technical Levels (1-Week Time Frame)
📍 Immediate Resistance Levels
✔️ R1: ~₹4,550 – ₹4,555 — first resistance zone where price may stall.
✔️ R2: ~₹4,620 – ₹4,625 — medium hurdle, key for bullish continuation.
✔️ R3: ~₹4,950 – ₹5,000 — strong supply area (major breakout zone).
📉 Support Levels
✔️ S1: ~₹4,430 – ₹4,440 — nearest support (intraday / short-term).
✔️ S2: ~₹4,390 – ₹4,395 — secondary support if price dips further.
✔️ S3: ~₹4,320 – ₹4,330 — deeper support for stronger pullbacks.
🧠 How to Use These Levels This Week
📊 Bullish scenario:
If HAL sustains above ₹4,550 with good volume, next upside test ~₹4,620 and potentially ₹4,950–₹5,000.
📉 Bearish scenario:
Break below ₹4,430 can trigger short-term weakness toward ₹4,390 first, then deeper near ₹4,320.
⚖️ Neutral / Range:
Price can consolidate within ₹4,430 – ₹4,550 this week if broader market lacks a trend catalyst.
📌 What the Indicators Suggest (Technical Mix)
Current momentum is mixed-neutral, not strongly trending up or down.
RSI/MACD readings indicate sideways bias in very short term.
USDCHF – M15 | Sell-Side Purge → Mitigation Rally → ContinuationPrice completed a textbook sell-side liquidity sweep, flushing weak longs below the range. The impulsive push down was real displacement. What followed is a forced bounce, driven by short covering and mitigation, not fresh demand.
Current price is retracing into a discounted supply / imbalance zone, where previous bearish orderflow originated. Structure remains bearish unless proven otherwise.
Market Narrative
Range highs → distribution
Sharp sell-side run = intent revealed
Bounce = mitigation into prior inefficiency
Execution Bias
Shorts favored into the marked retracement zone
Ideal entries on signs of rejection / bearish shift
Invalidation only on clean M15 acceptance above the green level
Targets
Recent sell-side lows
External liquidity below the range
Deeper discount expansion if momentum accelerates
Resistance to Flip + Equilibrium Mastery: Pure Price ActionLeft Chart (Monthly TF):
- Classic resistance-turned-support flip. Price tested this level multiple times historically (data >3 months old), holding firm as dynamic support. Proof that prior barriers evolve with pure price behaviour.
Right Chart (Weekly TF):
- Equilibrium at 0.5: Stock has danced around this pivot, building multiple resistances above/below—trading in balance like clockwork.
- Parallel Channel Magic( Red lines ): Counter-trendline + parallel upper line forms a textbook channel, showcasing how price respects geometry over time.
- Respected Demand Zone (Green): Multiple bounces here confirm its strength—demand alive and kicking historically.
Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only, showcasing historical price action (>3 months old). Not financial advice, trade recommendations, or predictions. Always DYOR and trade at your own risk.
Coal India Ltd – Bullish Breakout & Trend Continuation SetupCoal India has shifted from a prolonged consolidation into a defined uptrend, marked by multiple structural cues:
The chart shows a Change of Character (CHOCH) where prior range resistance turned into support — indicating a trend shift from sideways to bullish.
Following that, price achieved Break of Structure (BOS 1) and then BOS 2, confirming the uptrend at higher timeframes.
Recent candles show strength near the breakout area, with buyers stepping in on pullbacks.
The technical progression is textbook trend behavior:
Range → Breakout → Pullback → Continuation
This signals institutional participation and strong demand absorption.
Key Levels (from Chart OCR)
Resistance / Breakout / Initial Entry: ₹436.70
Initial Support (Re-test Zone): ₹417.70
Minor Target: ₹450.70
Full Target: ₹482.85
Trade Idea – Bullish Continuation
Trade Setup
Buy Above: ₹436.70
A clean breakout above this zone confirms continuation.
Stop Loss: ₹417.70
Below the first support — invalidates the breakout if taken out.
Target 1: ₹450.70
The next supply zone and logical intra-swing objective.
Target 2 (Full): ₹482.85
Extended trend target based on measured move and historical resistance.
Price has shown higher lows after the breakout, indicating sustained demand.
Pullbacks are being bought near the 417–420 zone, reflecting strong support validation.
Volume has picked up on bullish candles, confirming participation in the move.
There is no sign of distribution yet; instead, the structure is consistent with trend continuation.
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