Long
XAUUSD — Buy the H1 Liquidity SweepFundamental Analysis
Gold remains caught between two opposing macro forces. August U.S. CPI rose 0.4% MoM and 3.4% YoY, while core CPI increased 0.3%, pushing market pricing for a 25 bp Fed hike next week to roughly 85%–87%. The U.S. 10-year yield also remains close to 5%, keeping pressure on non-yielding gold.
At the same time, escalating Middle East tensions continue to support safe-haven demand. Oil remains above $100, and the latest attack on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline adds further geopolitical and inflation risk.
Technical Analysis
On H1, XAUUSD is trading near 4,349 after the CPI volatility. The broader structure remains bearish below the H1 descending trendline, with 4,443 acting as the major POI and 4,400–4,412 as premium supply.
Short term, price is stabilizing inside the 4,338–4,355 Fibonacci retracement zone. However, liquidity remains exposed below around 4,290–4,305.
The chart favors a possible final downside sweep into this liquidity pool before a stronger recovery develops. If buyers reclaim structure after the sweep, the recovery could first target 4,350–4,360, followed by 4,400–4,412.
Important Key Levels
4,443–4,450 — Major POI
4,400–4,412 — Premium supply
4,338–4,355 — Fibonacci pivot
4,290–4,305 — Liquidity / main buy zone
4,282 — Weak low / invalidation area
Trading Scenario
Main Buy Setup
Entry: 4,290–4,305
Stop Loss: 4,278
Take Profit 1: 4,350–4,360
Take Profit 2: 4,400–4,412
Take Profit 3: 4,440–4,443
Buy Condition
Wait for a liquidity sweep into 4,290–4,305 followed by clear bullish confirmation. A long lower wick, bullish engulfing candle, failed breakdown, or H1 reclaim above 4,305 would strengthen the recovery setup.
A sustained break below 4,278 would invalidate the immediate bullish idea.
Overall View
The broader H1 structure is still bearish, so this remains a counter-trend recovery setup. The preferred plan is not to chase longs around 4,349. A deeper sweep into 4,290–4,305 offers a cleaner location to look for confirmation toward 4,350, then the 4,400–4,412 premium supply.
Will gold sweep the 4,290 liquidity pool before recovering toward 4,400?
I can also monitor the Fed decision and major XAUUSD macro developments and alert you when the backdrop changes materially. Long 
H2 Rebound Into POC Before Lower Liquidity
Fundamental Analysis
Gold is caught between two opposing forces. August U.S. CPI rose 0.4% MoM and 3.4% YoY, lifting expectations for a Fed rate hike next week to around 85%–87%. At the same time, renewed Middle East tensions continue to support safe-haven demand, keeping volatility elevated.
Technical Analysis
On H2, Gold remains inside a broader bearish structure after the recent CHoCH and BOS.
Price is now near 4,349, above the lower liquidity area. A corrective rebound could first develop toward the 4,420–4,450 POC zone, where previous structure and Volume Profile resistance overlap.
If sellers defend this area, the next bearish wave could target the 4,280–4,310 SSL.
Important Key Levels
4,601 — Major POI
4,510 — OB / Resistance
4,420–4,450 — POC / Sell Zone
4,280–4,310 — SSL / Main Liquidity
Trading Scenario
Sell priority remains on a rebound into 4,420–4,450 followed by bearish H2 confirmation.
Target: 4,280–4,310 SSL.
Invalidation: H2 acceptance above the POC zone and continued bullish structure.
Overall View
The H2 bias remains bearish, but price is already near lower levels. The cleaner setup is to wait for a corrective rebound into the POC before looking for the next move toward SSL.
Will Gold retest 4,440 before sweeping the liquidity below 4,300? Short 
THE NEXT BATTLE: FOMC — THE INTEREST RATE DECISIONNearly 90% of the market is currently pricing in a 25bps rate hike in September.
But this time, I’m more interested in one question:
What is the Fed actually worried about? And how will the market react after the decision?
🎯 Three key factors to watch:
OIL | US10Y | DXY
⚠️ If OIL ↑ + US10Y ↑ + DXY ↑ → inflation pressure and tighter financial conditions could return.
On the other hand, if all three cool down → the environment could become more supportive for Gold & Crypto.
👀 And here is my personal hypothesis:
Will the Fed actually hike rates in September?
Personally, I’m leaning toward the possibility that they may hold rates steady in September, based on a few observations:
1️⃣ We are getting closer to the midterm election period, and there isn’t much time left.
2️⃣ Is the Fed truly completely independent in its policy decisions?
Especially after Trump repeatedly called for lower interest rates.
If the Fed holds rates in September, while the market is pricing in nearly a 90% probability of a hike, that could be a major policy surprise — and potentially trigger a significant psychological shock across markets.
But if the Fed does start hiking, I don’t think the story necessarily ends with just one hike.
Historically, meaningful policy impact often requires the Fed to maintain a consistent sequence of actions, rather than hike once and stop.
👉 So my personal view is:
September may not be the month when the Fed starts hiking.
But if they do start, it could be the beginning of a new hiking cycle.
🔥 That’s why the upcoming FOMC is not simply about “hike or hold.”
The bigger question is:
What is the Fed seeing — and what are they preparing for next? H2 Bullish Recovery From Major Demand
XAUUSD is trading around 4,349 after another volatile session around the lower H2 structure. Price remains inside a broader descending channel, but the current location is close to a major demand cluster where a recovery setup may begin to develop.
The macro backdrop remains challenging for gold. U.S. August CPI rose 0.4% MoM and 3.4% YoY, while core CPI increased 0.3% MoM and 2.4% YoY. Markets now price roughly an 85% probability of a Fed rate hike next week, keeping pressure on non-yielding gold. However, the U.S. 10-year yield eased back toward 4.93% after nearly touching 5%, providing some short-term relief.
Technical View
The broader structure remains below the descending channel resistance, so the recovery is not confirmed yet.
Price is currently holding around the 4,335–4,360 Demand / Reclaim Zone. This area may support a short-term bounce, but the cleaner bullish location remains lower at the 4,275–4,300 Major Demand / Bullish OB.
A liquidity sweep into that major demand followed by a strong reclaim, bullish MSS or higher-low confirmation would support the recovery path shown on the chart.
The first upside obstacle is 4,385–4,405 Resistance / Bearish OB. Acceptance above this area would strengthen the recovery and expose the larger 4,475–4,490 Major Resistance / Supply zone.
Key Zones
Current Price: 4,349.420
Demand / Reclaim Zone: 4,335–4,360
Buy Priority: 4,275–4,300
Resistance / Bearish OB: 4,385–4,405
Major Resistance / Supply: 4,475–4,490
Trading Plan
Buy Priority: 4,275–4,300
Condition: wait for a liquidity sweep into Major Demand followed by bullish rejection, reclaim, MSS or clear higher-low confirmation.
TP1: 4,335–4,360
TP2: 4,385–4,405
TP3: 4,475–4,490
Invalidation: sustained acceptance below 4,275.
Buy/Sell View
The preferred setup is to wait for a deeper pullback into Major Demand rather than chase the current bounce.
Shorts also become less attractive near 4,300 because price would already be entering a major bullish OB. The cleaner decision is to let demand confirm whether buyers can absorb the remaining sell-side pressure.
Important Note
Inflation remains the main macro risk. With CPI and PPI both firm, Fed tightening expectations remain elevated, while oil above $100 continues to reinforce inflation concerns. Any renewed rise in Treasury yields could pressure gold again.
Final View
Gold remains structurally weak, but 4,275–4,300 is the key H2 area where the risk/reward begins to shift toward a recovery setup.
My main scenario is a liquidity sweep into Major Demand followed by bullish confirmation, targeting 4,385–4,405 first and potentially 4,475–4,490 if the recovery strengthens.
Will gold sweep Major Demand before starting the next H2 recovery? Long 
Long 
XAUUSD: Sellers Reject the Recovery — Is 4,280 the Next Target?After a short-term rebound, XAUUSD is showing renewed weakness as price struggles below the descending trendline and the Ichimoku resistance area. The recovery toward 4,430–4,440 has so far failed to change the broader bearish structure, keeping sellers in control.
In terms of news, gold is under pressure as rising oil prices revive inflation concerns, while strong U.S. employment data has increased expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise rates again. Markets are currently pricing roughly a 60% probability of a Fed rate hike, making upcoming U.S. inflation data especially important. Higher rate expectations remain a headwind for non-yielding gold, even though a softer U.S. dollar is providing some support.
Looking at the H3 chart, the technical structure also supports a bearish scenario:
Price has been repeatedly rejected from the descending trendline.
The 4,425–4,440 area overlaps with trendline resistance and the upper Ichimoku zone.
Price is now trading around 4,393, showing that the latest rebound has already lost momentum.
The 4,360–4,385 zone is the nearest support. A decisive break below this area could accelerate selling pressure toward the lower demand zone.
📉 Main Scenario
Resistance: 4,425–4,440
Support: 4,360–4,385
Target: 4,280–4,300
As long as XAUUSD remains below the descending trendline and fails to reclaim 4,440, I continue to favor the bearish scenario. A breakdown below 4,360 would strengthen the case for another move toward 4,280–4,300. Short 
Gold Could Explode Higher This WeekXAUUSD remains bullish within the broader market structure, as the current decline is not yet enough to confirm that gold’s larger uptrend has come to an end.
From a fundamental perspective , gold is under pressure after U.S. August CPI came in hotter than expected, increasing market expectations that the Fed could raise interest rates at this week’s meeting . This is clearly a short-term headwind for gold. However, the metal still rebounded more than 1% in the final session of last week despite the hot inflation data, suggesting that some of the Fed-related pressure may already be priced in . As gold begins to absorb negative news more effectively, the possibility of a short-term bottom is becoming increasingly noteworthy.
On the H8 timeframe, the bullish structure remains intact . XAUUSD continues to trade within the ascending channel that has been in place since June and is now pulling back toward its lower boundary. Price remains below the Ichimoku Cloud, confirming that short-term selling pressure has not disappeared. However, the broader rising channel has not been broken , so the current decline can still be viewed as a correction within a larger uptrend.
The lower boundary of the ascending channel now acts as an important support for the region . If XAUUSD holds this structure and strong buying interest begins to return, the bullish recovery scenario will gain significant strength . A gradual move back above the Ichimoku Cloud could then open the door for another leg higher, with my main target around $4,800 per ounce , as highlighted on the chart.
Overall, XAUUSD appears to be going through a technical correction within a broader bullish trend . My preferred approach for the new week is to look for BUY setups on pullbacks , patiently waiting for price-action confirmation rather than chasing the decline while the dominant structure continues to favor buyers. Long 
H1 Reclaim Recovery Below Dynamic ResistanceXAUUSD is trading around 4,332 after another selloff into the lower H1 structure. Price is now testing the 4,330–4,350 Demand / Reclaim Zone, but the broader structure remains capped by the descending dynamic resistance.
The macro environment remains difficult for gold. August U.S. CPI rose 0.4% MoM and 3.4% YoY, reinforcing expectations for a Fed hike this week; markets are pricing roughly an 86% probability of a rate increase. At the same time, Brent has surged above $107 amid renewed Middle East supply disruptions, adding further inflation pressure. The FOMC meets September 15–16, making this a high-volatility week for gold.
Technical View
The H1 structure remains broadly bearish below the descending resistance trendline, but price has reached an important short-term reaction area.
The 4,330–4,350 Demand / Reclaim Zone is currently being tested. If buyers defend this area and produce a bullish MSS, strong rejection or reclaim confirmation, a corrective recovery could develop.
The first upside objective sits around 4,380–4,400, where the descending resistance structure becomes relevant.
Above that, the stronger recovery target is 4,430–4,445, where the marked OB / supply structure aligns with dynamic resistance.
The larger 4,475–4,490 Major Supply remains a higher-timeframe resistance objective and should not be assumed reachable without a confirmed structural breakout.
Key Zones
Current Price: 4,331.700
Demand / Reclaim Zone: 4,330–4,350
Recovery Resistance: 4,380–4,400
OB / Key Resistance: 4,430–4,445
Major Supply: 4,475–4,490
Major Demand / Bullish OB: 4,285–4,305
Major Liquidity / Swing Low: 4,283.319
Trading Plan
Buy Priority: 4,330–4,350
Condition: wait for bullish rejection, liquidity sweep + reclaim, MSS or clear higher-low confirmation from the current demand area.
TP1: 4,380–4,400
TP2: 4,430–4,445
Invalidation: sustained H1 acceptance below 4,330 weakens the immediate recovery setup.
Buy/Sell View
The preferred idea is a confirmed recovery trade, not a blind buy.
Price remains below dynamic resistance and the macro backdrop still favors higher rates, so buyers need to prove control first.
If the reclaim zone fails, the deeper 4,285–4,305 Major Demand / Bullish OB becomes the next important reaction area rather than chasing shorts into support.
Final View
Gold enters FOMC week under strong macro pressure from hot inflation, elevated yields and surging oil, but H1 is now testing an important demand area.
The main scenario is a bullish reaction from 4,330–4,350, targeting 4,380–4,400 first and 4,430–4,445 if recovery momentum expands.
Can buyers defend the H1 reclaim zone before the Fed delivers the next major gold move? Short 
XAUUSD — Liquidity Sweep Before H2 RecoveryMarket Pulse
Gold remains caught between two strong forces.
Higher U.S. inflation and stronger Fed hike expectations are limiting the upside, while geopolitical risk and high oil prices continue to support safe-haven demand. This mixed backdrop could keep Gold volatile going into next week’s Fed decision.
What the Chart Says
XAUUSD still shows a weak H2 structure after the rejection from the 4,500 area.
Price formed a bearish BOS and has continued to trade below the recent lower highs. However, Gold is now sitting inside the 4,335–4,355 FVG, close to an important lower-price area.
The stronger support remains around 4,282–4,300. This is the zone where I would expect buyers to have a better chance of returning if liquidity below the current range is swept.
If price reacts from that support, the first recovery area is 4,395–4,415 FVG, followed by the 4,432–4,450 supply zone.
Above that, 4,509 is the key H2 Order Block. A stronger recovery could later bring 4,602 POI and 4,643 BSL back into focus.
Levels That Matter
4,643 — Buy-side liquidity
4,602 — Major POI
4,509 — H2 Order Block
4,432–4,450 — Resistance / supply
4,395–4,415 — Upper FVG
4,335–4,355 — Current FVG
4,282–4,300 — Major support / liquidity
My Main Plan
My main idea is to wait for a deeper liquidity sweep before looking for a recovery.
If Gold moves into 4,282–4,300 and buyers show clear confirmation, price could start a corrective move back toward 4,395–4,415, then 4,432–4,450.
A stronger bullish continuation would put 4,509 back in focus.
What I Need to See
I want to see the lower support hold and H2 price create a clear bullish structure shift.
A sustained break below 4,282 would weaken this recovery idea and keep the broader bearish pressure active.
Final Read
The short-term H2 structure remains bearish, but Gold is moving closer to an important liquidity and support area.
For now, I prefer waiting for the lower sweep and bullish confirmation before looking for the recovery, rather than chasing shorts near support. Long 
SLL Sweep Before Recovery
Fundamental Analysis
Gold remains sensitive to a firm U.S. dollar, high Treasury yields and inflation expectations. U.S. CPI is now the key catalyst and could create strong volatility around Fed rate expectations.
Technical Analysis
On H1, Gold remains in a bearish structure after the recent CHoCH and BOS, with price now trading near 4,334.
The main downside focus is the 4,280–4,290 SLL, where the current bearish wave may complete.
If price sweeps this liquidity and buyers confirm a reaction, a corrective recovery could develop toward the 4,362–4,380 Fibo Zone + VAL, followed by the 4,388–4,400 POC.
Important Key Levels
4,430–4,440 — OB + Support / Major Resistance
4,388–4,400 — POC
4,362–4,380 — Fibo Zone + VAL
4,280–4,290 — SLL / Main Liquidity
Trading Scenario
Buy priority comes only after a sweep into 4,280–4,290 followed by bullish H1 confirmation.
Target: 4,362–4,380 first, then 4,388–4,400.
Invalidation: H1 acceptance below 4,280.
Overall View
The H1 structure is still bearish, so buying early is less attractive. The cleaner setup is to wait for the lower liquidity sweep and then watch for a confirmed recovery wave.
Will Gold sweep 4,290 before rebounding toward the Fibo Zone? Long 
XAUUSD — Sell the Fibonacci Liquidity RetestMarket Pulse
Gold remains under macro pressure after U.S. August PPI rose 0.4% MoM and 5.4% YoY, keeping inflation concerns high. Markets are now pricing roughly a 70% chance of a Fed rate hike next week, while the U.S. 10-year yield is trading close to 5%.
Attention now turns to U.S. CPI later today. Oil has eased from its recent highs, giving Gold some support, but a hotter CPI could quickly bring the dollar and yields back into focus.
What the Chart Says
XAUUSD remains bearish on H1.
Price is still moving below the previous bearish structure after falling from the 4,425–4,436 OB + rejection zone.
The rebound from the 4,300–4,305 support area has now started to lose momentum. Price reached around 4,355 before sellers returned, which keeps the recovery looking corrective rather than a real trend change.
The key area above is 4,360–4,370, where liquidity meets the 0.50 Fibonacci retracement near 4,369.
A slightly deeper recovery could reach the 0.618 Fibonacci near 4,385, but this would still remain inside the bearish retracement structure.
If sellers continue to defend this area, price could rotate back toward 4,320 and later retest the major support around 4,295–4,305.
Levels That Matter
4,425–4,436 — OB + major rejection
4,405–4,410 — Liquidity
4,360–4,370 — Liquidity + 0.50 Fibonacci
4,384–4,390 — 0.618 Fibonacci resistance
4,295–4,305 — Main support
My Main Plan
The main plan remains bearish.
I prefer waiting for a rebound toward 4,360–4,370. If price rejects this area and sellers return with confirmation, Gold could move back toward 4,320 first.
A clean continuation lower may then bring 4,295–4,305 back into focus.
What I Need to See
I want the recovery to stay below the Fibonacci resistance and form another lower high.
A sustained H1 move above 4,390 would weaken the immediate bearish setup. A stronger recovery above 4,410 would suggest that buyers are gaining more control.
Final Read
The H1 trend still favors sellers. The current bounce looks more like a retracement than a confirmed reversal.
For now, I prefer selling the rebound rather than chasing price near support, especially with U.S. CPI likely to bring higher volatility later today. Short 
XAUUSD — Sell the H1 Fibonacci RetestFundamental Analysis
Gold remains under macro pressure after U.S. August PPI rose 0.4% MoM and 5.4% YoY, reinforcing concerns that energy-driven inflation is becoming more persistent. Markets are now pricing roughly a 70% probability of a 25 bp Fed hike next week.
Attention now turns to U.S. CPI later today. Brent has eased toward $105 after briefly approaching $110, while the U.S. 10-year yield remains close to 5%. A hotter CPI could strengthen the dollar and yields further, while softer inflation may trigger a stronger gold rebound.
Technical Analysis
On H1, XAUUSD is trading near 4,345 after recovering from the 4,300.80 low. However, the broader structure remains bearish beneath the descending resistance trendline.
The key decision area is 4,348–4,376, where Fibonacci 0.618–1.0, previous structure, and the marked sell zone overlap. A corrective recovery into this region followed by rejection would favor another bearish leg.
If sellers regain control, downside targets sit near 4,330, 4,318, and ultimately the 4,300–4,305 liquidity low.
A stronger recovery could first test the upper 4,395–4,405 FVG, but acceptance above this area would weaken the immediate bearish thesis.
Important Key Levels
4,395–4,405 — Upper FVG
4,360–4,376 — Main sell zone
4,347–4,350 — Fib 0.618 / pivot
4,329–4,330 — First support
4,318–4,320 — Secondary support
4,300–4,305 — Main downside target
Trading Scenario
Main Sell Setup
Entry: 4,360–4,376
Stop Loss: 4,392
Take Profit 1: 4,330
Take Profit 2: 4,318
Take Profit 3: 4,300–4,305
Sell Condition
Wait for bearish confirmation inside the sell zone. A rejection wick, bearish engulfing candle, failed reclaim above 4,376, or H1 close back below 4,348 could confirm renewed seller pressure. A sustained break above 4,395–4,405 would invalidate the immediate sell setup.
Overall View
The H1 bias remains bearish while XAUUSD stays below 4,376 and the descending trendline. The preferred plan is to avoid chasing shorts around current price and wait for a corrective rebound into 4,360–4,376. If sellers defend this area, gold could rotate back toward 4,330 → 4,318 → 4,300.
Will CPI trigger the retest into 4,360–4,376 before sellers attack 4,300 again? Short 
Gold 1H: Will 4,400 Reject Before 4,283 Gets Swept?
Market Overview
• Macro Driver: Spot Gold closed the week at $4,349.420 on Saturday, September 12, 2026, consolidating following intense volatility ignited by Friday's US August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. While headline inflation showed signs of stubborn persistence, core metrics came in line with forecasts, triggering volatile two-way liquidity sweeps. Global institutional desks are now entering the blackout window ahead of next week's highly anticipated September FOMC interest rate decision.
• Market Condition: Institutional order flow continues to operate within a well-defined descending channel distribution structure. Despite Friday's impulsive short-covering spike that engineered a local CHoCH, price remains constrained beneath dominant descending channel resistance and premium order block supply.
Technical Context
• Structure: Bearish Descending Channel / Corrective Relief Wave. On the 1H timeframe, Gold is carving out lower swing highs beneath the 4,511.089 Strong High. Following a liquidity sweep into 4,300, price printed an aggressive bullish displacement candle back to 4,400, testing the upper channel boundary before easing into the weekend close at 4,349.42.
• Liquidity & Imbalance: Price delivery points toward an intraday push to retest the Upper Supply Block / Channel Resistance (4,390 – 4,405). A confirmed bearish rejection here is projected to complete an internal distribution cycle, driving price downward through the channel median toward the lower Demand Block and sweeping the 4,283.19 Weak Low.
Key Zones
• Macro Ceiling (Strong High): 4,511.089
• Upper Supply / Channel Resistance (Blue Box): 4,390.00 – 4,405.00
• Immediate Market Close Price: 4,349.42
• Channel Median Pivot: 4,330.00 – 4,340.00
• Primary Liquidity Target / Lower Demand (Blue Box): 4,280.00 – 4,300.00
• Macro Floor (Weak Low Target): 4,283.19
Trading Plan (IF–THEN)
• IF price pushes into the 4,390.00 – 4,405.00 supply block / descending channel ceiling AND confirms lower-timeframe (M5/M15) bearish displacement/CHoCH -> THEN look to execute Short swing positions, targeting 4,330 and expanding downward to sweep the 4,283.19 Weak Low inside the 4,280 – 4,300 demand pool.
• IF price invalidates the channel structure with a decisive 1H close above 4,415 -> THEN the bearish continuation thesis is postponed, exposing an extended recovery toward 4,440.
MMFLOW View
• Bias: Bearish Channel Rejection. Do not chase green candles into descending channel resistance ahead of FOMC week; the mathematical edge favors shorting confirmed rejection displacement at premium supply to target deep discount liquidity pools.
Are you selling the 4,400 channel retest into next week, or waiting for a breakout above the channel? Short 
XAUUSD — Weekly Outlook: H4 Bearish Distribution
Market Context
Gold is trading around $4,349 after another volatile week, with the H4 chart showing a completed Head & Shoulders distribution and a clear shift from bullish expansion into bearish delivery. Price remains below the broken structure, while repeated BOS signals continue to expose liquidity beneath the market.
The macro backdrop also favors caution on Gold next week. August U.S. CPI rose 0.4% MoM and 3.4% YoY, while stronger PPI and labor data have pushed market expectations for a 25 bp Fed hike at next week’s meeting to around 85%. Treasury yields remain elevated, while oil is still above $100 despite easing from recent highs. Ongoing U.S.–Iran tensions may create safe-haven spikes, but persistent inflation and tighter Fed expectations remain an important headwind for Gold.
SMC View
The H4 structure has shifted bearish after the Head & Shoulders distribution, followed by MSS and consecutive downside BOS. The right shoulder has already failed to reclaim the previous highs, confirming that recent rebounds remain corrective while price trades beneath the larger bearish structure.
The immediate FVG around $4,360–$4,395 is the main decision zone. A corrective recovery into this imbalance could provide mitigation before sellers attempt another expansion lower. The neckline liquidity around $4,280–$4,310 is the first major downside draw, while deeper External SSL remains exposed below.
Main Trading Scenario
Condition:
Gold retraces into the $4,360–$4,395 FVG area and forms a clear bearish rejection. A lower-timeframe bearish MSS or CHOCH is required before entry.
Entry: $4,360–$4,395 after bearish confirmation
SL: Above $4,420 and the rejection structure
TP1: $4,280–$4,310
TP2: $4,225–$4,255
TP3: $4,050–$4,090
Key Zones to Watch
Current price: $4,349
Main sell zone: $4,360–$4,395
Premium Bearish OB: $4,683.210
Neckline liquidity: $4,280–$4,310
External SSL / Deep Demand: $4,225–$4,255
Major External SSL: $4,050–$4,090
Invalidation: Acceptance above $4,420
Confirmation: Bearish rejection + MSS / CHOCH
Prime Gold View
The weekly sell bias remains valid while Gold stays below the nearby FVG and continues to respect bearish H4 structure.
A confirmed rejection from $4,360–$4,395 could reopen delivery toward neckline liquidity first, followed by deeper External SSL. With the Fed decision approaching, confirmation matters more than chasing volatility.
No confirmation, no trade. Short 
XAUUSD — Internal Supply Retest Sell Setup
Market Context
Gold is trading around $4,350 after rebounding from the recent lows, but the broader H2 structure remains clearly bearish. Consecutive downside BOS and the descending HTF bearish trendline continue to define seller control, while the current bounce appears more like corrective repricing than a confirmed bullish reversal.
Macro pressure remains important ahead of today’s U.S. CPI. August PPI rose 0.4% month-on-month, while markets are pricing roughly a 70% probability of a Fed rate hike next week. Oil above $100 is adding further inflation pressure, keeping Treasury yields and the dollar supported and creating a difficult backdrop for Gold despite ongoing geopolitical risk.
SMC View
The H2 chart continues to show bearish delivery beneath the HTF trendline. Recent BOS confirms that lower highs and lower lows remain intact, while the recovery from the current low has not yet reclaimed meaningful bearish structure.
The $4,380–$4,400 Internal Supply is the main decision zone. A retracement into this area could mitigate the latest bearish displacement before another sell-side expansion. The H2 Bearish OB near $4,442 remains the stronger structural invalidation barrier.
Main Trading Scenario
Condition:
Gold retraces into the $4,380–$4,400 Internal Supply and forms a clear bearish rejection. A lower-timeframe bearish MSS or CHOCH is required before entry.
Entry: $4,380–$4,400 after bearish confirmation
SL: Above $4,442 and the H2 Bearish OB
TP1: $4,320–$4,330
TP2: $4,275–$4,305
Key Zones to Watch
Current price: $4,350.070
Main sell zone: $4,380–$4,400
H2 Bearish OB: $4,441.990
External SSL / Major Demand: $4,275–$4,305
HTF bearish trendline: Dynamic resistance
Invalidation: Acceptance above $4,442
Confirmation: Bearish rejection with MSS or CHOCH
Prime Gold View
The sell bias remains valid while Gold stays below Internal Supply, the H2 Bearish OB and the descending HTF trendline.
If sellers defend $4,380–$4,400, price could resume bearish delivery toward the exposed External SSL around $4,300. Acceptance above $4,442 would weaken the immediate sell setup.
No confirmation, no trade. Short 
Education 
H1 Bearish Retest Toward Major Demand
XAUUSD is trading around 4,326 after another strong bearish leg pushed price below the previous reclaim structure. The H1 market remains under pressure, with price still trading beneath the descending resistance trendline and below the latest bearish Order Block.
The macro backdrop also remains challenging for gold. August U.S. PPI rose 0.4% MoM and 5.4% YoY, reinforcing inflation concerns and lifting market pricing for a Fed rate hike next week toward 70%. The dollar and Treasury yields strengthened after the release.
Attention now shifts to U.S. CPI later today. Markets are especially sensitive because another hot inflation print could further support yields and the dollar, while a softer reading may trigger a sharp gold recovery.
Technical View
The H1 structure remains bearish after the latest MSS and breakdown below the 4,330–4,350 reclaim / intermediate supply zone.
Price is currently testing the lower edge of this structure, so chasing shorts around 4,326 offers weaker positioning.
The cleaner bearish setup sits higher at 4,385–4,405, where the Resistance / Bearish OB aligns with the descending trendline.
A controlled rebound into this area followed by bearish rejection, failed acceptance or a lower-high formation would support another move lower.
The main downside objective remains the 4,275–4,295 Major Demand / Bullish OB.
Key Zones
Current Price: 4,325.980
Reclaim / Intermediate Supply: 4,330–4,350
Sell Priority / Bearish OB: 4,385–4,405
Major Demand / Bullish OB: 4,275–4,295
Major Resistance / Supply: 4,475–4,490
Trading Plan
Sell Priority: 4,385–4,405
Condition: wait for an H1 rebound into the bearish OB followed by rejection, failed reclaim or lower-high confirmation.
SL: above 4,420
TP1: 4,330–4,350
TP2: 4,275–4,295
Sell View
The preferred setup is not to chase the current decline.
A recovery into 4,385–4,405 would provide a cleaner area to evaluate seller response. As long as price remains below this resistance structure, the H1 bias stays bearish.
A sustained H1 reclaim above 4,420 would weaken the immediate sell scenario and could expose higher resistance again.
Final View
Gold remains technically bearish on H1, while hotter PPI and elevated oil prices continue to support inflation and higher-rate expectations. CPI is now the main short-term catalyst.
The primary scenario is a corrective rebound toward 4,385–4,405 followed by bearish continuation, targeting 4,330–4,350 first and 4,275–4,295 as the larger downside objective.
Will CPI trigger the retest into the bearish OB before gold attacks Major Demand? Short 
XAUUSD: The Chart Still Belongs to the SellersThere are times when gold falls sharply, yet the market is not necessarily offering a good place to chase the sell-off. XAUUSD is currently one of those cases .
Price has dropped toward 4,320 , bringing it relatively close to the 4,240–4,280 support zone . But what matters more is what sits above price: the entire H2 structure remains trapped beneath the descending trendline , while the Ichimoku area around 4,365–4,377 continues to act as a technical ceiling. In other words, gold may be trading at lower levels, but it has not escaped its bearish structure .
The latest U.S. data has also given gold buyers little reason to become more confident. August PPI rose 0.4% , while the annual rate reached 5.4% . Combined with a relatively stable labor market, persistent inflationary pressure could make it harder for the Fed to adopt a more dovish stance. That remains an unfavorable backdrop for gold if rate expectations and U.S. Treasury yields stay elevated .
For that reason, I am not particularly interested in trying to catch the bottom here. The 4,365–4,400 area is the key boundary I am watching . As long as price remains below it, my preferred scenario is for selling pressure to continue toward 4,280–4,240 . A strong recovery above 4,400 with a break of the descending trendline would change the picture. Until then, the sellers still have the upper hand .
This is my personal market view and should not be considered financial advice. Short 
Short
XAU/USD - Buyers Take Control Next WaveOANDA:XAUUSD is reacting again from the 4,280–4,360 support zone, an area that already produced a strong rebound earlier this month. However, price is still trading below the descending trendline and around the Ichimoku structure, so the bullish reversal is not confirmed yet.
If buyers defend this zone and price breaks decisively above the trendline, I favor a recovery toward:
🎯 Target: 4,510
Macro Market: Gold is facing a difficult backdrop after US PPI rose 0.4% in August and annual producer inflation reached 5.4%, lifting the probability of a Fed rate hike to around 70%. The US 10-year yield is also close to 5%, while the Dollar remains firm.
A sustained H2 break below 4,280 would weaken the recovery scenario.
AURICVERSE View: technically, Gold is sitting at an attractive support area, but macro remains a headwind. I want to see support hold + trendline breakout before treating 4,510 as the next upside objective. Long 
POC Rejection Keeps Downside Liquidity in Focus
Fundamental Analysis
Gold remains supported by a softer U.S. dollar and safe-haven demand. However, high oil prices and Treasury yields keep inflation concerns elevated, with U.S. PPI and CPI now the key catalysts.
Technical Analysis
On H1, Gold rejected the 4,435–4,445 liquidity area and remains below the descending trendline.
Price is now trading near 4,380, below the 4,395–4,405 POC, keeping short-term pressure bearish.
The first liquidity sits around 4,375, while the stronger downside target remains 4,340–4,345.
Important Key Levels
4,435–4,445 — Strong Liquidity
4,395–4,405 — POC / Resistance
4,375 — Liquidity
4,340–4,345 — Main Liquidity Support
Trading Scenario
Sell priority remains on a weak rebound into 4,395–4,405 followed by bearish H1 confirmation.
Target: 4,375 first, then 4,340–4,345.
Invalidation: H1 acceptance above 4,405 and the descending trendline.
Overall View
H1 remains bearish below the POC and trendline. The cleaner setup is to wait for a rebound rather than chase price lower, with 4,340–4,345 remaining the main liquidity objective.
Will Gold retest the POC first, or sweep 4,340 directly? Long 
Trendline Rejection Keeps Bearish Bias
Fundamental Analysis
Gold is supported by safe-haven demand as Middle East tensions intensify, but Brent above $100 is increasing inflation concerns. Markets are now focused on U.S. PPI Thursday and CPI Friday, with a Fed rate hike still being priced as a meaningful possibility.
Technical Analysis
On H1, Gold remains below the descending trendline after the recent CHoCH and BOS, keeping the short-term structure bearish.
Price is now near 4,410, where the trendline creates immediate resistance. The stronger sell area sits around 4,428–4,442 OB + Fibo.
Volume Profile also shows heavy activity around 4,380–4,410, making rebounds into this area important for sellers.
Important Key Levels
4,485–4,495 — BSL / Major Resistance
4,428–4,442 — OB + Fibo / Resistance
4,380–4,395 — POC
4,340–4,355 — Liquidity
4,305–4,320 — SSL
Trading Scenario
Sell priority remains while Gold stays below the descending trendline and 4,428–4,442 resistance.
Target: 4,340–4,355 first, then 4,305–4,320 SSL.
Invalidation: H1 acceptance above 4,442 and the trendline.
Overall View
The H1 structure remains bearish. The cleaner approach is to wait for rejection around resistance rather than chase price lower, with liquidity and SSL remaining the main downside objectives.
Will Gold reject the trendline again and sweep 4,350 next? Short 
