MCX Aluminium: Bullish Trend May Extend Toward 412–447Aluminium Futures on MCX are currently trading in a strong uptrend on the daily chart. According to Elliott Wave analysis, the market appears to be moving in a powerful bullish Wave (3) , which usually represents the strongest phase of a trend.
The ongoing structure indicates that the market is currently developing smaller impulsive waves inside the larger Wave (3) . Strong momentum, steady buying interest, and limited corrections are supporting the bullish outlook.
Targets: 412 - 447
Traders may consider maintaining a stop loss below the recent important support zones, as a sustained breakdown beneath these levels could weaken the current bullish Elliott Wave structure. Short-term traders may watch the 360–365 zone, while positional traders can keep a broader stop loss below the 330 level to manage risk effectively.
Commoditysignals
What Is Commodity Futures Trading?1. Energy Commodities
Energy commodities power economies and are among the most actively traded futures contracts.
Crude oil
Natural gas
Heating oil
Gasoline
Crude oil futures, especially benchmarks like West Texas Intermediate and Brent Crude, are heavily traded due to their global economic importance.
2. Agricultural Commodities
These include crops and livestock products:
Wheat
Corn
Soybeans
Coffee
Sugar
Cotton
Farmers use futures to lock in prices before harvest, protecting themselves against falling market prices.
3. Metals
Metals are divided into precious and industrial metals.
Precious metals:
Gold
Silver
Platinum
Industrial metals:
Copper
Aluminum
Gold futures are often used as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty.
How Commodity Futures Work
A futures contract is a legally binding agreement traded on an exchange such as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Each contract specifies:
Quantity (e.g., 1,000 barrels of oil)
Quality standards
Delivery location
Delivery month
Price
For example, a trader might buy a crude oil futures contract agreeing to purchase oil at $75 per barrel for delivery in June. If the market price rises to $85 before June, the trader can sell the contract at a profit without ever taking physical delivery.
Most futures contracts are settled before expiration, meaning traders close their positions rather than accept physical delivery of the commodity.
Participants in Commodity Futures Markets
1. Hedgers
Hedgers use futures to reduce price risk.
A farmer sells wheat futures to guarantee a minimum selling price.
An airline buys oil futures to secure fuel costs.
Their goal is stability rather than profit from price changes.
2. Speculators
Speculators aim to profit from price fluctuations. They do not intend to take delivery of commodities. They assume risk in hopes of making gains.
Speculators provide liquidity to the market, making it easier for hedgers to enter and exit positions.
3. Arbitrageurs
Arbitrageurs exploit price differences between markets, helping maintain pricing efficiency.
Margin and Leverage
Commodity futures trading involves margin, which is a small deposit required to control a large contract value. This creates leverage.
For example, if a gold futures contract is worth $200,000, a trader may only need $10,000 as margin. This means:
A 5% move in gold prices could double the trader’s investment.
Losses can also exceed the initial margin deposit.
This leverage makes futures trading potentially profitable but highly risky.
Price Determinants
Commodity prices are influenced by multiple factors:
Supply and demand (harvest yields, mining output, oil production)
Weather conditions (droughts, floods, hurricanes)
Geopolitical events (wars, trade sanctions)
Currency fluctuations
Economic growth and industrial activity
Interest rates and inflation
For example, tensions in oil-producing regions can drive oil prices upward due to supply concerns. Similarly, poor weather conditions can sharply increase grain prices.
Advantages of Commodity Futures Trading
Risk Management – Producers and consumers stabilize revenue and costs.
Liquidity – Major commodity contracts trade in large volumes daily.
Price Discovery – Futures markets help establish transparent global prices.
Portfolio Diversification – Commodities often move differently from stocks and bonds.
Investors often add gold or oil exposure to hedge against inflation or economic downturns.
Risks Involved
Despite the benefits, commodity futures trading carries substantial risks:
High Volatility – Commodity prices can swing dramatically.
Leverage Risk – Small price changes can result in large gains or losses.
Market Risk – Unexpected global events can rapidly shift prices.
Liquidity Risk – Less popular contracts may be harder to exit.
Because of these risks, futures trading is generally recommended for experienced investors or those with strong risk management strategies.
Physical vs Cash Settlement
Some futures contracts require physical delivery of the commodity if held until expiration. Others are cash-settled, meaning traders exchange the price difference in cash.
For example:
Oil futures may require physical delivery.
Some financial commodity contracts may settle in cash.
However, most traders close their positions before delivery to avoid logistical complications.
Commodity Futures vs Spot Trading
Spot trading involves immediate purchase and delivery at current market prices.
Futures trading involves agreements for future delivery at fixed prices.
Futures allow market participants to plan ahead and hedge risk, while spot markets reflect immediate supply-demand conditions.
Role in the Global Economy
Commodity futures markets play a critical role in stabilizing economies. Farmers, mining companies, oil producers, airlines, food manufacturers, and governments all rely on futures markets for price certainty.
They also contribute to:
Efficient resource allocation
Transparent pricing
Global trade stability
For example, international wheat buyers rely on futures prices as reference points when negotiating supply contracts.
Regulation and Oversight
Commodity futures markets are regulated to prevent manipulation and ensure fairness. In the United States, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversees futures and options markets.
Exchanges impose rules regarding margin requirements, position limits, and reporting obligations to maintain orderly markets.
Conclusion
Commodity futures trading is a sophisticated financial mechanism that allows participants to hedge against price volatility or speculate on future price movements. Through standardized contracts traded on regulated exchanges like the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, commodities ranging from oil and gold to wheat and corn can be bought and sold for future delivery.
While futures markets offer significant opportunities for profit, they also carry high levels of risk due to leverage and market volatility. Successful participation requires knowledge of market fundamentals, risk management techniques, and global economic factors.
Overall, commodity futures trading remains a cornerstone of modern financial markets, supporting global trade, stabilizing prices, and enabling businesses and investors to manage uncertainty in an ever-changing economic landscape.
Commodities Supercycle (Base Metals, Energy)What Is a Commodities Supercycle?
A commodities supercycle is a prolonged period—often 10 to 20+ years—during which prices of raw materials rise significantly above their long-term trend, driven by structural (not just cyclical) demand shifts. These episodes typically involve base metals (like copper, iron ore, nickel, aluminum) and energy commodities (oil, natural gas, coal), and are associated with industrialization waves, geopolitical realignments, or major technological transitions.
Unlike normal commodity cycles—tied to business expansions and recessions—supercycles are powered by deep, global transformations: urbanization, electrification, war reconstruction, or green energy transitions. They reshape trade patterns, capital flows, inflation trends, and geopolitical power balances.
Historical Commodity Supercycles
1. Late 19th Century Industrialization (1890s–1910s)
This early supercycle was driven by the industrial expansion of the United States and Germany. Massive railway construction, steel production, and coal consumption fueled rising demand for iron ore and energy resources. Urban growth and mechanization caused sustained commodity price strength.
Key characteristics:
Infrastructure expansion (railroads, factories)
Rising steel and coal demand
Rapid industrialization
The cycle was interrupted by World War I and later economic volatility.
2. Post–World War II Reconstruction (1940s–1960s)
After World War II, Europe and Japan underwent large-scale rebuilding. Programs like the Marshall Plan accelerated construction, infrastructure development, and industrial revival.
This period saw:
Strong steel and copper demand
Expanding oil consumption
Large infrastructure investment
The rise of automobile culture in the United States also boosted petroleum demand, reinforcing the energy component of the supercycle.
3. The China-Led Supercycle (2000–2014)
The most recent and widely discussed supercycle was driven by China’s rapid industrialization and urbanization after its entry into the World Trade Organization in 2001.
China consumed:
Over 50% of global iron ore
Massive quantities of copper and aluminum
Growing oil imports
Between 2000 and 2008, prices of oil, copper, and iron ore surged dramatically. Oil reached nearly $150 per barrel in 2008. Mining companies expanded aggressively, investing billions in new capacity.
However, after 2014:
China’s growth slowed
Commodity supply caught up
Prices collapsed (2014–2016 downturn)
This marked the end of that supercycle phase.
Key Drivers of a Commodities Supercycle
1. Structural Demand Shifts
A supercycle begins when a large economy (or group of economies) undergoes transformation:
Industrialization
Urbanization
Electrification
Military buildup
Energy transition
For example, China’s shift from agrarian to industrial society required steel, cement, and copper at unprecedented levels.
2. Supply Constraints
Commodity supply is relatively inelastic in the short and medium term. Developing new mines or oil fields can take 5–15 years.
During supercycles:
Underinvestment in previous years limits supply
Environmental and regulatory barriers slow expansion
Geopolitical risks disrupt output
This mismatch between rapid demand growth and slow supply response pushes prices higher for extended periods.
3. Financialization of Commodities
Since the 2000s, commodities became an asset class. Institutional investors, hedge funds, and ETFs increased participation, amplifying price trends. While financial flows do not create a supercycle alone, they can intensify price movements.
Base Metals in a Supercycle
Base metals are central to supercycles because they are foundational to infrastructure and industry.
Copper
Often called “Dr. Copper” because it signals economic health. It is critical for:
Electrical wiring
Construction
Renewable energy systems
Energy transition policies significantly increase copper intensity per unit of GDP.
Iron Ore
Used in steel production—essential for buildings, bridges, ships, and machinery.
Nickel
Important for stainless steel and increasingly for electric vehicle batteries.
Aluminum
Lightweight metal used in transport, packaging, and aerospace.
During supercycles, base metal prices rise as infrastructure and industrial production surge.
Energy in a Supercycle
Energy commodities often experience even more volatility than metals.
Oil
Oil demand grows with transportation, petrochemicals, and industrial activity. Supercycles often coincide with:
Rising vehicle ownership
Expanding global trade
Military conflicts
Natural Gas
Used for power generation and industrial heating. LNG trade expansion has globalized gas markets.
Coal
Though declining in some regions due to climate policies, coal remains critical in emerging markets.
Energy supercycles can also be triggered by supply disruptions (e.g., geopolitical tensions or OPEC production decisions).
Inflation and Macroeconomic Effects
Commodity supercycles often generate:
Higher global inflation
Trade surpluses for exporting nations
Fiscal windfalls for resource-rich countries
Countries like Australia, Brazil, Canada, and Russia tend to benefit from rising commodity prices. Conversely, commodity-importing nations may face inflationary pressures.
Central banks must respond carefully. The 2000s commodity boom contributed to inflation concerns prior to the 2008 financial crisis.
Are We in a New Supercycle?
Some analysts argue that a new supercycle began around 2020–2022, driven by:
1. Energy Transition
Decarbonization requires enormous metal inputs:
Copper for grids
Nickel and lithium for batteries
Aluminum for lightweight transport
Electric vehicles require significantly more copper than internal combustion cars.
2. Underinvestment in Fossil Fuels
After the 2014 oil crash and ESG pressures, investment in oil and gas declined. Limited new supply could tighten markets.
3. Geopolitical Fragmentation
Supply chain reshoring, sanctions, and trade fragmentation may increase commodity intensity and raise costs.
4. Infrastructure Stimulus
Government spending in the United States, Europe, and Asia on infrastructure and clean energy may boost demand.
However, skeptics argue:
China’s growth has slowed structurally.
Renewable energy could eventually reduce fossil fuel demand.
Technological innovation may improve material efficiency.
Thus, whether the world is entering a sustained supercycle remains debated.
Risks That End Supercycles
Commodity supercycles typically end when:
Supply finally catches up
New mines, oil fields, and refining capacity enter production.
Demand slows
Economic slowdown or structural shifts.
Technological substitution
New materials replace old ones.
Energy efficiency reduces consumption.
Policy shifts
Environmental regulations.
Carbon pricing.
Trade changes.
The 2014 downturn in commodities occurred after massive mining investment met slowing Chinese demand.
Conclusion
A commodities supercycle is not simply a temporary price spike—it is a deep, structural transformation in global demand and supply patterns that reshapes economies and geopolitics.
Historically, supercycles have been linked to:
Industrial revolutions
War reconstruction
Rapid urbanization
Economic globalization
Base metals and energy commodities lie at the center of these cycles because they underpin infrastructure, industry, and development.
Today, the debate revolves around whether the green energy transition and geopolitical realignment will trigger a new supercycle. If so, it could redefine global trade, inflation dynamics, and resource politics for decades to come.
Understanding commodity supercycles is crucial for policymakers, investors, and businesses, as their effects ripple across currencies, stock markets, emerging economies, and global stability.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)Commodity Currencies Overview
Commodity currencies are national currencies of countries that rely heavily on the export of natural resources or commodities. These currencies are sensitive to global commodity prices because their economies are closely tied to the demand and supply of commodities such as metals, energy products, and agricultural goods. Among the most prominent commodity currencies in the world are the Australian Dollar (AUD), Canadian Dollar (CAD), and New Zealand Dollar (NZD). Each of these currencies reflects the underlying economic health and export performance of their respective nations.
1. Australian Dollar (AUD)
Economic Background:
Australia is rich in natural resources, including iron ore, coal, natural gas, and gold. The Australian economy is heavily reliant on the export of these commodities, particularly to Asian markets like China, Japan, and South Korea. Roughly 60–70% of Australia’s total exports are commodities, making the AUD highly sensitive to global commodity prices.
Relationship with Commodity Prices:
Iron Ore: Australia is the world’s largest exporter of iron ore, and changes in iron ore prices strongly affect the AUD. Rising demand from industrial powerhouses like China often strengthens the AUD.
Coal and Natural Gas: Australia is a leading exporter of thermal and metallurgical coal, as well as liquefied natural gas (LNG). Increases in global energy prices often lead to appreciation of the AUD.
Monetary Policy and Interest Rates:
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) plays a critical role in influencing AUD value. Historically, the AUD has been considered a “high-yielding” currency because Australia has often maintained interest rates above other developed nations. Traders often engage in carry trades using the AUD, borrowing in low-interest currencies like JPY to invest in AUD for higher returns.
Trading Characteristics:
The AUD is highly liquid and traded against major currencies such as USD (AUD/USD), JPY (AUD/JPY), and EUR (AUD/EUR).
It is often considered a risk-on currency, meaning it appreciates when global risk sentiment is positive and depreciates in risk-off scenarios.
Market Influences:
Global Growth: Strong global economic activity increases demand for Australian exports, supporting AUD.
China’s Economy: Since China is Australia’s largest trading partner, Chinese GDP growth, industrial production, and infrastructure spending heavily influence AUD movements.
Commodity Prices: Fluctuations in iron ore, coal, and gold prices can trigger significant AUD volatility.
2. Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Economic Background:
Canada’s economy is resource-rich, with significant production of crude oil, natural gas, lumber, and metals. Oil exports, in particular, dominate Canada’s trade, making the CAD closely correlated with crude oil prices. Canada is one of the top global producers of crude oil, mainly from Alberta’s oil sands.
Relationship with Commodity Prices:
Oil: Approximately 40% of Canada’s total exports are energy products. The CAD is often referred to as a “petro-currency” because oil price movements have a direct effect on its value. Rising oil prices strengthen the CAD, while falling prices weaken it.
Natural Resources: Lumber, natural gas, and metals also contribute to CAD volatility, though oil remains the dominant factor.
Monetary Policy and Interest Rates:
The Bank of Canada (BoC) manages the nation’s monetary policy, influencing CAD through interest rate decisions. Similar to the AUD, the CAD has historically offered relatively higher interest rates compared to some developed economies, making it attractive for carry trades.
Trading Characteristics:
The CAD is highly liquid and traded against the USD (USD/CAD), EUR, and JPY.
USD/CAD is particularly sensitive to both oil price fluctuations and U.S. economic performance, as the U.S. is Canada’s largest trading partner.
CAD also responds to global risk sentiment but less strongly than the AUD, given its more defensive economic ties to energy markets.
Market Influences:
Oil Prices: A surge in crude oil prices tends to boost the CAD, as higher energy revenues improve Canada’s trade balance.
Global Risk Appetite: Risk-on environments moderately strengthen CAD, while risk-off events may weaken it.
U.S. Economy: Given the close trade relationship, strong U.S. growth can positively affect CAD.
3. New Zealand Dollar (NZD)
Economic Background:
New Zealand’s economy is smaller than Australia’s and Canada’s but highly dependent on commodity exports. Agricultural products—such as dairy, meat, wool, and fruit—form the backbone of its export sector. Approximately 50–60% of New Zealand’s exports are commodities, making the NZD sensitive to global agricultural demand.
Relationship with Commodity Prices:
Dairy Prices: Dairy products are the largest export category, especially to Asian markets. Global milk and dairy prices influence NZD significantly.
Meat and Forestry Products: Meat and wood product exports also impact the currency, though to a lesser degree than dairy.
Monetary Policy and Interest Rates:
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) regulates interest rates, which historically have been relatively high compared to other developed nations. This has made the NZD a preferred currency for carry trades.
Trading Characteristics:
The NZD is traded primarily against the USD (NZD/USD), AUD (NZD/AUD), and JPY (NZD/JPY).
It behaves as a risk-on currency, often moving in tandem with global investor sentiment.
The NZD has high volatility relative to other major currencies, reflecting its dependence on agricultural commodity markets.
Market Influences:
Global Dairy Demand: Changes in Chinese and Asian demand for dairy exports strongly influence the NZD.
Commodity Prices: Milk, meat, and forestry prices can drive short-term NZD fluctuations.
Risk Sentiment: Like the AUD, NZD tends to appreciate during periods of global economic optimism.
Shared Characteristics of Commodity Currencies
Commodity Correlation:
All three currencies are closely linked to global commodity markets. AUD is linked to metals and energy, CAD to crude oil, and NZD to agricultural products.
Risk Sensitivity:
They are considered risk-on currencies, appreciating when global markets are bullish and depreciating during risk-off periods.
Interest Rate Differentials:
These currencies often offer higher interest rates relative to low-yielding currencies such as JPY or CHF, making them attractive in carry trades.
Export Dependency:
Their economies are export-driven, and changes in demand from major trading partners directly affect currency value.
Volatility:
Commodity currencies exhibit higher volatility than non-commodity currencies because commodity prices themselves are highly volatile, influenced by global supply-demand shifts, geopolitical events, and economic cycles.
Trading Strategies for Commodity Currencies
Commodity-Based Trading:
Traders often correlate currency movements with relevant commodity prices. For instance, rising oil prices could signal CAD strength.
Risk Sentiment Trading:
Since AUD and NZD are risk-on currencies, traders monitor global market risk appetite to anticipate currency moves.
Interest Rate and Carry Trades:
These currencies are favored in carry trades where investors borrow low-yielding currencies like JPY to invest in higher-yielding currencies such as AUD or NZD.
Fundamental Analysis:
Monitoring trade balances, GDP growth, and economic data releases from Australia, Canada, and New Zealand is essential for predicting currency strength.
Technical Analysis:
Due to their volatility, technical indicators like moving averages, support/resistance levels, and trend analysis are widely used in short- and medium-term trading.
Conclusion
The AUD, CAD, and NZD are quintessential examples of commodity currencies, with their values intrinsically tied to the performance of key export commodities and global economic trends. While the AUD and NZD are sensitive to metals, energy, and agricultural products and exhibit risk-on behavior, the CAD is strongly influenced by crude oil prices and trade relations with the U.S.
Investors and traders closely monitor commodity price movements, global economic growth, and central bank policies when trading these currencies. Their higher interest rates and sensitivity to risk sentiment make them attractive in both fundamental and technical trading strategies, but also inherently more volatile than non-commodity currencies like the USD or EUR.
Understanding these dynamics is crucial for anyone looking to trade, hedge, or invest in commodity currencies, as their fortunes rise and fall with the ebb and flow of global commodities and investor sentiment.
The Commodity Super Cycle: Gold & Crude Oil in Focus1. Understanding the Commodity Super Cycle
A commodity super cycle refers to a long-term (10–30 years) period of rising commodity prices, driven by structural changes in the global economy rather than short-term speculation. Unlike normal commodity cycles, super cycles are fueled by massive demand shifts, supply constraints, geopolitical realignments, and monetary policy trends.
Historically, super cycles have emerged during periods of industrialization, reconstruction, or major technological change—such as post-World War II rebuilding or China’s rapid growth in the early 2000s. Today, the world appears to be entering a new super cycle, shaped by energy transition, geopolitical fragmentation, inflationary pressures, and rising global debt. In this environment, Gold and Crude Oil stand at the center of the narrative.
2. Why Gold and Crude Oil Matter in a Super Cycle
Gold and crude oil are not just commodities; they are macro indicators.
Gold reflects monetary stability, inflation expectations, currency confidence, and geopolitical risk.
Crude Oil reflects economic growth, energy security, industrial activity, and geopolitical power.
Together, they act as barometers of global stress and expansion. When both trend higher over a sustained period, it often signals deep structural shifts in the global economy.
3. Gold: The Monetary Anchor of the Super Cycle
Gold has always played a unique role as a store of value and hedge against uncertainty. In the current cycle, gold’s importance has increased due to several converging factors.
a) Inflation and Monetary Expansion
Following years of aggressive money printing by central banks, global economies are grappling with persistent inflation. Even when inflation moderates, real interest rates often remain negative, which historically supports higher gold prices. Investors turn to gold to preserve purchasing power when fiat currencies weaken.
b) Central Bank Accumulation
One of the strongest structural drivers for gold is record central bank buying, especially by emerging economies like China, India, Russia, and Middle Eastern nations. These countries are actively diversifying away from the US dollar, increasing gold reserves as a neutral, non-sanctionable asset.
c) Geopolitical Risk and De-Dollarization
Rising geopolitical tensions, sanctions, trade wars, and regional conflicts have reinforced gold’s role as a safe-haven asset. In a fragmented world economy, gold acts as financial insurance, increasing its long-term demand.
d) Supply Constraints
Gold mining faces challenges such as declining ore grades, rising extraction costs, environmental regulations, and limited new discoveries. This supply rigidity, combined with rising demand, strengthens gold’s super-cycle potential.
4. Crude Oil: The Energy Engine of the Super Cycle
Crude oil remains the lifeblood of the global economy, despite the push toward renewable energy. In a super cycle, oil prices are shaped by structural supply-demand imbalances rather than short-term shocks.
a) Chronic Underinvestment in Supply
Over the past decade, oil companies have reduced capital expenditure due to ESG pressures, price volatility, and energy transition narratives. This has led to insufficient investment in exploration and production, making supply less responsive to rising demand.
b) Geopolitical Supply Risks
Oil supply is highly sensitive to geopolitics. Sanctions on major producers, conflicts in the Middle East, OPEC+ production controls, and strategic reserve policies all contribute to structural tightness in oil markets.
c) Resilient Global Demand
Despite electric vehicle adoption and renewable energy growth, oil demand continues to rise, especially in emerging markets. Transportation, aviation, petrochemicals, and industrial sectors still depend heavily on crude oil, making demand more inelastic than often assumed.
d) Inflation Feedback Loop
Rising oil prices feed directly into transportation costs, manufacturing, and food prices, reinforcing inflation. This creates a self-sustaining cycle where higher energy prices support the broader commodity complex.
5. Gold vs Crude Oil: Correlation and Divergence
While both benefit from a super cycle, gold and crude oil behave differently:
Gold thrives during economic uncertainty, currency weakness, and falling real yields.
Crude oil thrives during economic expansion, supply disruptions, and inflationary growth.
Periods when both rise together typically signal stagflationary conditions—slow growth with high inflation. Such environments are particularly challenging for traditional equity and bond portfolios, increasing the appeal of commodities.
6. Investment and Trading Implications
The commodity super cycle reshapes portfolio construction and trading strategies.
a) Portfolio Hedging
Gold acts as a hedge against inflation, currency depreciation, and systemic risk, while oil provides exposure to global growth and energy scarcity. Together, they enhance portfolio resilience.
b) Equity Market Impact
Rising gold prices support mining stocks, while higher crude oil prices benefit energy producers, refiners, and oil-service companies. However, energy-intensive industries may face margin pressure.
c) Trading Volatility
Both commodities offer high volatility, making them attractive for futures, options, and swing trading. Super cycles often feature sharp corrections within a long-term uptrend, rewarding disciplined traders.
7. Risks to the Super Cycle Thesis
No super cycle is without risks. Key threats include:
A sharp global recession reducing demand
Rapid technological breakthroughs reducing oil dependency
Aggressive monetary tightening strengthening the US dollar
Policy interventions such as price caps or windfall taxes
However, these factors often cause temporary pullbacks rather than structural trend reversals.
8. The Road Ahead
The current global landscape—marked by inflationary pressures, geopolitical realignment, energy insecurity, and rising debt—creates fertile ground for a commodity super cycle. Gold and crude oil stand at the core of this transformation.
Gold represents trust, stability, and monetary insurance, while crude oil represents power, growth, and energy dominance. Together, they reflect a world transitioning from decades of deflationary stability to a more volatile, inflation-prone regime.
Conclusion
The commodity super cycle is not just about price appreciation; it is about structural change in how the global economy functions. Gold and crude oil are the twin pillars of this shift—one anchoring monetary confidence, the other driving industrial momentum. For investors and traders who understand their dynamics, this cycle offers long-term opportunity alongside short-term volatility.
In a world of uncertainty, commodities are no longer optional—they are essential.
Commodity Trading: Energy, Metals & Agricultural MarketsCommodity trading involves buying and selling physical goods or their derivative contracts with the objective of profit, hedging risk, or portfolio diversification. Unlike equities (which represent ownership in companies), commodities are tangible assets such as crude oil, gold, wheat, or natural gas. These markets play a critical role in the global economy because commodities are essential inputs for energy production, manufacturing, construction, and food security.
Commodity trading is broadly divided into three major categories:
Energy Commodities
Metal Commodities
Agricultural (Agri) Commodities
Each category has unique drivers, risks, and trading characteristics.
1. Energy Commodity Trading
Energy commodities are among the most actively traded commodities globally. They are highly sensitive to geopolitical events, economic growth, and supply disruptions.
Major Energy Commodities
Crude Oil (WTI & Brent)
Natural Gas
Heating Oil
Gasoline
Coal (limited exchange trading)
Key Market Drivers
Supply & Demand Balance
OPEC+ production decisions
US shale oil output
Refinery capacity
Geopolitical Factors
Middle East tensions
Russia–Ukraine conflict
Sanctions and trade restrictions
Economic Growth
Strong economies increase fuel demand
Recessions reduce consumption
Seasonality
Natural gas demand rises in winter
Gasoline demand peaks during summer travel
Inventory Data
Weekly reports like EIA crude oil inventories
Trading Characteristics
High volatility
Strong trend-following behavior
Heavy participation by institutions, hedge funds, and governments
Prices often react sharply to news and data releases
Trading Instruments
Futures contracts (most common)
Options on futures
Commodity ETFs
CFDs (in some markets)
Energy trading is popular among short-term traders due to sharp intraday movements, but it also attracts hedgers like airlines and oil producers.
2. Metal Commodity Trading
Metals are divided into Precious Metals and Base (Industrial) Metals, each serving different economic purposes.
A. Precious Metals Trading
Major Precious Metals
Gold
Silver
Platinum
Palladium
Key Drivers
Inflation & Interest Rates
Gold performs well during high inflation
Rising interest rates often pressure prices
Currency Movements
Strong US Dollar usually weakens precious metals
Safe-Haven Demand
Economic crises, wars, or market crashes boost demand
Central Bank Buying
Especially important for gold
Trading Characteristics
Gold is relatively less volatile than energy
Silver is more volatile due to industrial usage
Strong correlation with macroeconomic indicators
Gold is often used as a hedge against inflation and currency risk, making it popular with long-term investors as well as traders.
B. Base (Industrial) Metals Trading
Major Base Metals
Copper
Aluminium
Zinc
Nickel
Lead
Key Drivers
Industrial & Infrastructure Demand
Construction
Manufacturing
Electric vehicles and renewable energy
Economic Growth Indicators
GDP growth
PMI data
Supply Constraints
Mining disruptions
Environmental regulations
China’s Demand
China is the largest consumer of base metals
Trading Characteristics
Strongly cyclical
Move with global economic cycles
Copper is often called “Dr. Copper” because it signals economic health
Base metals are ideal for traders who closely follow macro and industrial trends.
3. Agricultural (Agri) Commodity Trading
Agricultural commodities represent soft commodities derived from farming and livestock. These markets are deeply influenced by natural and seasonal factors.
Major Agricultural Commodities
Grains: Wheat, Corn, Rice
Oilseeds: Soybean, Mustard
Softs: Sugar, Coffee, Cotton
Livestock: Live Cattle, Lean Hogs
Key Market Drivers
Weather Conditions
Rainfall, droughts, floods
El Niño and La Niña effects
Crop Reports
USDA acreage and yield reports
Sowing and harvesting data
Seasonality
Planting and harvest cycles
Government Policies
Minimum Support Prices (MSP)
Export/import restrictions
Global Demand
Population growth
Biofuel usage (corn → ethanol)
Trading Characteristics
Often range-bound, except during supply shocks
Highly seasonal
Can experience sudden spikes due to weather news
Agri trading is popular among farmers and food companies for hedging, as well as speculators who understand seasonal cycles.
Commodity Trading Instruments & Markets
Common Trading Instruments
Futures Contracts (primary instrument)
Options on Futures
Spot Markets
ETFs / ETNs
Commodity Mutual Funds
Indian Commodity Exchanges
MCX (Multi Commodity Exchange) – Energy & Metals
NCDEX – Agricultural commodities
Global Commodity Exchanges
CME Group (USA)
LME (London Metal Exchange)
ICE Exchange
Risk Management in Commodity Trading
Commodity markets are volatile, so risk management is critical:
Use stop-loss orders
Proper position sizing
Avoid over-leveraging
Understand contract specifications (lot size, expiry)
Be aware of rollover risks
Professional traders focus more on capital protection than profit chasing.
Advantages of Commodity Trading
Portfolio diversification
Inflation hedge
High liquidity (especially energy & metals)
Opportunities in both rising and falling markets
Risks Involved
High volatility
Leverage risk
Sudden policy or weather-driven shocks
Global geopolitical uncertainty
Conclusion
Commodity trading in Energy, Metals, and Agricultural markets offers diverse opportunities for traders, investors, and hedgers. Energy commodities provide high volatility and strong trends, metals reflect macroeconomic and industrial health, while agricultural commodities are driven by seasonality and weather. Successful commodity trading requires a solid understanding of fundamental drivers, technical analysis, and strict risk management.
When approached with discipline and knowledge, commodities can be a powerful addition to any trading or investment strategy.
Commodity Supercycle and Geopolitics: An In-Depth AnalysisA commodity supercycle refers to an extended period—usually lasting 10 to 20 years or more—of elevated demand and prices for commodities, often driven by structural economic shifts rather than short-term market fluctuations. These cycles have historically been influenced by rapid industrialization, urbanization, technological innovation, and shifts in global trade patterns. However, geopolitics increasingly plays a central role in shaping commodity supercycles in today’s interconnected world, influencing both supply and demand dynamics.
Understanding Commodity Supercycles
Unlike normal commodity cycles, which are often tied to cyclical economic growth or short-term supply-demand imbalances, a supercycle is usually structural. Historical supercycles can be traced to events such as post-World War II reconstruction, the industrialization of Japan, and the economic rise of China in the early 21st century. During a supercycle, commodities such as metals, energy products, and agricultural goods experience prolonged price increases, often outpacing inflation and impacting global economic patterns.
The genesis of a supercycle is often linked to surges in global demand. For instance, the 2000s commodity supercycle was largely fueled by China’s rapid industrialization, urbanization, and infrastructure expansion. This created unprecedented demand for metals like copper, aluminum, iron ore, and energy resources such as oil and coal. Unlike short-term demand spikes, these structural drivers reshape production patterns and influence long-term investment decisions in mining, energy extraction, and logistics.
Supply-side constraints also reinforce supercycles. Commodities are often subject to long lead times for new production capacity. Mining projects, oil fields, and agricultural expansion cannot scale up instantly in response to rising demand. Environmental regulations, geopolitical instability, and technological limitations further restrict supply flexibility, allowing prices to remain elevated over extended periods.
Geopolitics and Its Role in Commodity Supercycles
Geopolitics—encompassing conflicts, trade policies, sanctions, territorial disputes, and strategic alliances—plays a decisive role in determining the timing, magnitude, and duration of commodity supercycles. Political events can affect both the physical availability of commodities and the perception of risk in global markets.
Energy and Oil Geopolitics:
Oil is perhaps the most geopolitically sensitive commodity. Historical supercycles, such as the 1970s oil crisis, demonstrate how conflicts, embargoes, or political instability in key oil-producing regions can trigger dramatic price spikes. Contemporary issues such as tensions in the Middle East, Russian-Ukrainian conflicts, and shifts in OPEC+ policies continue to influence crude oil supply and pricing. Energy security concerns drive countries to diversify energy sources, invest in strategic reserves, and accelerate transitions to renewable energy, indirectly affecting the demand patterns for fossil fuels.
Metals and Strategic Minerals:
Geopolitics also strongly influences metals and critical minerals essential for modern technologies. For example, rare earth elements, lithium, cobalt, and nickel are central to the production of batteries, semiconductors, and renewable energy infrastructure. China dominates the rare earth market, controlling the majority of global production. Any geopolitical tension, export restriction, or trade dispute involving China can trigger price volatility worldwide. Similarly, cobalt sourced from the Democratic Republic of Congo faces supply risks due to political instability and labor concerns, highlighting how geopolitics can constrain supply and accelerate supercycle trends.
Agriculture and Food Security:
Agricultural commodities are no longer insulated from geopolitics. Conflicts in Ukraine, one of the world’s largest grain exporters, have disrupted wheat and corn supply chains, sending shockwaves across global markets. Similarly, geopolitical tensions affecting fertilizer exports, such as Russia and Belarus, influence crop yields and prices worldwide. Nations increasingly consider strategic stockpiling, trade barriers, and domestic production incentives to safeguard food security, further affecting global commodity cycles.
Sanctions, Trade Wars, and Global Supply Chains:
Economic sanctions and trade wars can exacerbate commodity price volatility. U.S.-China trade tensions, for instance, affected the demand for soybeans, metals, and energy products. Sanctions on Russia following the Ukraine invasion impacted oil, gas, and wheat supplies. These disruptions not only affect immediate supply-demand balances but also alter long-term investment strategies and infrastructure development, reinforcing supercycle characteristics.
The Interplay of Technology, Transition, and Geopolitics
In the modern era, commodity supercycles are increasingly intertwined with technological transitions and environmental imperatives. The global push for green energy and decarbonization has heightened demand for lithium, nickel, cobalt, copper, and rare earth elements, all crucial for electric vehicles, energy storage, and renewable energy infrastructure. Geopolitical considerations, such as control over these critical minerals and the location of processing capabilities, shape the trajectory of this emerging supercycle.
For instance, the European Union, U.S., and other nations are investing heavily in domestic battery supply chains to reduce dependence on China, highlighting how geopolitics drives structural shifts in commodity markets. Similarly, energy transitions in India, Southeast Asia, and Africa are reshaping demand patterns for coal, natural gas, and renewables, with geopolitical alliances influencing both investment and trade flows.
Historical Patterns and Lessons
Past supercycles, such as those in the 1970s, 2000s, and early 2020s, reveal common patterns:
Demand-driven origin: Rapid industrialization and urbanization often create sustained increases in commodity consumption.
Supply-side rigidity: Long lead times for production expansions amplify price impacts.
Geopolitical triggers: Wars, sanctions, trade disputes, and policy interventions frequently catalyze or intensify supercycles.
Technological and policy transitions: Innovation and regulatory changes, such as renewable energy adoption or strategic stockpiling, significantly influence commodity prices.
These patterns suggest that future supercycles may increasingly revolve around critical minerals, energy transition metals, and food security, with geopolitics remaining a central driver.
Implications for Investors and Policymakers
For investors, understanding the nexus between commodity supercycles and geopolitics is crucial for risk management and portfolio strategy. Supercycles offer opportunities for long-term gains, but geopolitical risks can amplify volatility, making diversification, hedging, and strategic timing essential.
For policymakers, the interplay between commodities and geopolitics highlights the importance of securing supply chains, investing in strategic reserves, and fostering international cooperation. Policies addressing energy transition, climate goals, and technological sovereignty must account for potential supply disruptions caused by geopolitical conflicts.
Conclusion
Commodity supercycles are not merely economic phenomena; they are deeply entwined with geopolitics. Structural demand shifts, constrained supply, and long-term technological transitions interact with political instability, trade disputes, and strategic resource control to shape prolonged periods of elevated commodity prices. In an era of energy transition, technological innovation, and geopolitical realignment, understanding this interplay is critical for nations, corporations, and investors alike. The next supercycle will likely be defined not only by rapid growth in demand but also by the geopolitical landscape surrounding critical resources, energy security, and food production. Navigating this environment requires foresight, resilience, and an acute awareness of how politics and economics converge in shaping the global commodity market.
Introduction to Agricultural Commodities and SoftsAgricultural commodities are raw materials derived from farming and livestock, forming a critical part of global trade and the commodities market. These commodities are primarily categorized into two groups: hard commodities and soft commodities. While hard commodities include natural resources like metals and energy products, soft commodities refer to agricultural products that are grown rather than mined. These include crops like wheat, corn, soybeans, coffee, sugar, cotton, cocoa, and livestock products such as cattle and hogs.
Soft commodities are essential to the global economy because they are fundamental to human consumption, industrial production, and trade. They are also highly sensitive to factors like weather patterns, seasonal changes, geopolitical events, and technological advancements in agriculture. The trading of these commodities forms a critical part of global commodity markets, with futures contracts, options, and spot trading helping farmers, traders, and investors hedge risks or speculate on price movements.
Classification of Agricultural Commodities
Agricultural commodities can be broadly classified into the following categories:
Grains and Cereals:
These are staple foods consumed globally and include wheat, rice, corn, barley, and oats. Grains are essential for food security and are also used in the production of animal feed, biofuels, and processed food products.
Oilseeds and Legumes:
Soybeans, canola, sunflower seeds, and peanuts are major oilseed crops. They are primarily used for producing vegetable oils and animal feed, as well as for industrial purposes. Legumes like lentils and chickpeas are also traded commodities due to their high nutritional value.
Softs:
Soft commodities refer to crops that are typically grown in tropical or subtropical regions and are not staple grains. These include coffee, cocoa, sugar, cotton, tea, and orange juice. Soft commodities are highly influenced by climatic conditions and are often grown in regions susceptible to political and economic volatility, which can lead to price fluctuations in international markets.
Livestock:
While not “soft” in the classical sense, livestock commodities such as live cattle, feeder cattle, and lean hogs are integral parts of agricultural commodity trading. Prices in livestock markets are influenced by feed costs, disease outbreaks, weather conditions, and consumer demand for meat products.
Key Soft Commodities
Coffee:
Coffee is one of the most widely traded soft commodities globally. Major producers include Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, and Ethiopia. Coffee prices are influenced by weather patterns, crop diseases (such as coffee leaf rust), labor availability, and global demand. Coffee futures are primarily traded on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).
Sugar:
Sugar is produced from sugarcane and sugar beets. Leading producers include Brazil, India, Thailand, and the European Union. Sugar prices fluctuate due to weather conditions, production levels, government policies, and ethanol demand (as sugarcane is also used in ethanol production).
Cocoa:
Cocoa beans are the primary ingredient in chocolate production. West African countries, particularly Ivory Coast and Ghana, dominate cocoa production. Political stability, climate changes, and disease outbreaks in these regions can have a significant impact on global cocoa prices.
Cotton:
Cotton is a key raw material for the textile industry. Major cotton-producing countries include the United States, India, China, and Brazil. Cotton prices are affected by weather conditions, global demand for textiles, and changes in synthetic fiber usage.
Orange Juice:
Primarily produced in Brazil and the United States (Florida), orange juice is traded in futures markets. Weather events such as frost or hurricanes significantly impact the production and price of orange juice.
Tea:
Tea is grown mainly in India, China, Kenya, and Sri Lanka. Prices are influenced by seasonal harvests, global consumption trends, and labor availability in plantations.
Factors Affecting Agricultural Commodities and Softs
Weather and Climate:
Agricultural commodities are extremely sensitive to weather conditions. Droughts, floods, unseasonal rains, and hurricanes can drastically reduce crop yields, leading to price volatility. For example, a drought in Brazil can sharply increase coffee and sugar prices globally.
Supply and Demand:
Basic economics drives commodity prices. An oversupply of crops reduces prices, while a shortage increases them. Factors such as population growth, dietary changes, and biofuel demand can shift demand patterns significantly.
Geopolitical and Economic Events:
Trade policies, tariffs, and sanctions affect commodity prices. For instance, export restrictions by a major producing country can create supply shortages and increase global prices.
Currency Fluctuations:
Since most agricultural commodities are traded internationally in U.S. dollars, changes in currency exchange rates can influence prices. A weaker dollar generally makes commodities cheaper for foreign buyers, potentially boosting demand.
Technological Advancements:
Improvements in farming techniques, irrigation, seed quality, and pest control can increase yields and stabilize prices. Conversely, delays in adopting new technologies may reduce productivity and raise prices.
Speculation and Market Sentiment:
Traders and investors in futures markets play a role in price determination. Speculative buying or selling can amplify price movements, sometimes disconnected from physical supply-demand fundamentals.
Trading and Investment in Agricultural Commodities
Agricultural commodities are actively traded in both physical and financial markets. The physical market involves actual buying and selling of the raw product, while the financial market deals with derivatives like futures and options. Futures contracts are standardized agreements to buy or sell a commodity at a predetermined price on a future date.
Soft commodities are widely traded on global exchanges such as:
ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) – Coffee, cocoa, sugar, and cotton futures.
CME Group – Soybeans, corn, wheat, and livestock futures.
Investors use agricultural commodities for hedging (protecting against price risk) and speculation (profit from price movements). For example, a sugar producer may sell futures contracts to lock in prices, while a trader may buy them anticipating a price rise due to supply concerns.
Economic and Social Importance
Agricultural commodities, especially softs, have immense economic and social significance:
Global Trade:
Soft commodities like coffee, cocoa, and sugar are major export products for developing countries. Their trade generates foreign exchange earnings and supports rural employment.
Food Security:
Cereals and oilseeds are critical for feeding the global population. Price stability in these commodities ensures access to affordable food.
Industrial Use:
Cotton feeds the textile industry, sugar is used in food processing and ethanol production, and soybeans contribute to oils and animal feed.
Inflation Indicator:
Agricultural commodity prices often influence food inflation. Sharp increases in soft commodities can directly impact consumer prices, particularly in developing nations.
Challenges in the Agricultural Commodity Market
Volatility:
Agricultural commodities are inherently volatile due to their sensitivity to unpredictable factors like weather, disease, and geopolitical tensions.
Storage and Transportation:
Unlike metals or oil, agricultural products can be perishable, requiring proper storage and logistics. Inefficiencies can lead to spoilage and losses.
Environmental Concerns:
Intensive farming practices may lead to soil degradation, water scarcity, and deforestation, affecting long-term sustainability.
Policy Dependence:
Government subsidies, import/export restrictions, and trade agreements heavily influence market dynamics, often creating artificial price distortions.
Conclusion
Agricultural commodities and softs form a cornerstone of global trade and economic activity. They are critical for food security, industrial production, and rural livelihoods. Soft commodities like coffee, cocoa, sugar, and cotton, while highly lucrative, are highly sensitive to environmental, economic, and political factors, making them volatile but attractive for traders and investors. Understanding the complex interplay of supply, demand, climate, and market dynamics is essential for anyone participating in these markets.
The ongoing globalization of trade, coupled with advances in agricultural technology and increased investment in commodity markets, continues to shape the future of agricultural commodities. As population growth and changing consumption patterns drive demand, soft commodities will remain a pivotal element of the global economy and financial markets.
GOLD 4H | Liquidity Harvest Done… Now the Slide BeginsPrice engineered liquidity above the previous swing high and immediately delivered a sharp rejection, confirming a buy-side liquidity grab and the start of distribution.
Structure has now shifted bearish with a clear BOS from the premium zone. I’m expecting a mitigation leg before continuation lower.
The draw on liquidity sits inside the 4100–4080 demand imbalance, which aligns with unmitigated bullish orders from the prior accumulation phase.
If 4100 fails to hold on mitigation, the next liquidity pools rest at:
4022 (clean sell-side pocket)
3998 (final downside liquidity target)
Silver – Riding the WaveMCX:SILVERMIC1! is trending strong, and we are already surfing at 5R.
Our system’s strength lies in catching mean reversals early and riding the momentum that follows.
Disciplined risk, precise trailing, no second-guessing.
This approach has delivered consistent double-digit “R” trades in the past.
Now, the trend is in motion — and we stay with it as long as it runs.
Trade Setup – BUY WTI Crude Oil (USOIL)✅ Trade Setup – BUY WTI Crude Oil (USOIL)
📅 Date: July 2–3, 2025
🕒 Timeframe: 1H
🎯 Trade Parameters:
Buy Zone (Entry): 65.00 – 64.90 USD/barrel
Stop Loss (SL): 64.55 USD (below rising trendline and lower Bollinger Band)
Take Profit (TP):
• TP1: 66.50 USD
• TP2: 67.00 USD
📊 Technical Analysis Highlights:
Rising trendline from June 24 continues to hold, forming a solid support area around 64.9–65.0.
Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating potential volatility expansion. Price is consolidating near the mid-band (MA20), often a precursor to bullish breakout.
Volume shows signs of accumulation around the trendline, suggesting buying interest at key support.
Multiple rejections from 64.90 without breakdown reinforces this level as near-term support.
🧭 Strategy Notes:
Enter on price pullback to the 65.00–64.90 zone with confirmation (e.g. bullish pin bar, engulfing pattern, volume spike).
Suggested position management:
• Take 50% profit at 66.50
• Hold the remaining 50% toward 67.00 if momentum is strong.
If price breaks below 64.55 with strong volume, exit the trade to preserve capital.
Good luck Everybody! Fl me here and ytb ! Thanks
SILVERHello & welcome to this analysis
Since May 2024, Silver (Comex) has surpassed $32.5 only once and failed on 4 attempts (including Fri - 14th Feb). Silver (MCX) has surpassed 96500 only once and failed on 3 attempts (one less due to $:INR impact).
Is this setup a complex H&S in the making (multiple shoulders)? I have my doubts on that because the weekly and monthly patterns are of a cup and handle formation with the latter in the process of currently shuffling out weak hands.
A daily close above 32.50 / 96500 would lead to a strong rally. Strong support now at $31 / 93500
Medium to long term view bullish, short term volatile - waiting for breakout
Regards
Gold Trade Idea Gold Update
- Since my last post Gold did follow my plan and led to a significant move to the upside.
- Remember we don't trade any patterns my conviction was based on merging Fundamentals along with technical analysis.
- The Global Scenario for gold looks bullish and commodities overall will remain bullish in a market where we have chances of the war getting escalated.
- DXY too will be important to be observed before trading Commodities because DXY has stayed calm since 3 weeks.
- Trading aggressively this week will only result in leaked gains and losses.
- The mentioned Red Zone will be an important area to catch a gold short ONLY if you see a good rejection or else let it hover around. (2100-2150 is a strong supply zone).
Cup & Handle Pattern Breakout Seen in Guar GumHello Guy's, i have brought analysis for Commodity lovers on Guar Gum. Chart is clearly showing a Cup and Handle breakout on daily timeframe and it is supported by rising volume. MACD is sustaining above zero line and has formed a bullish crossover. All these observations are seen in the daily timeframe chart. A long trade can be taken in this Guar Gum for healthy upside. Well i have written everything on chart, but still writing here.
Important levels in Guar Gum:-
Buy between in the range of 13300-13000 levels.
Targets we can see in upside 14078/15166/15836.
Keep stop loss at 12538.
Bullish Crossover in MACD supports the bullish view.
So, Guy's according to Price action and MACD bullish crossover, a rally is expected towards 15000+ levels. So trade accordingly.
Disclaimer:- Please always do your own analysis or consult with your financial advisor before taking any kind of trades.
Dear traders, If you like my work then do not forget to hit like and follow me, and guy's let me know what do you think about this idea in comment box, i would be love to reply all of you guy's.
Thankyou.
MCX Natural Gas – Impulsive Wave SetupA new impulsive structure has emerged from the low of 265.5 in natural gas. Price has accomplished wave (5) and started the zigzag correction at 801.
Currently, Natural gas is forming sub-wave 5 of impulsive wave C. Natural gas has also broken down 200 EMA and the base channel of 2 – 4 wave, which signals bearish momentum. It has faced strong support of 515 , but the price didn’t respect the level and ended up losing bullish momentum.
Wave C has traveled the same distance as wave A. Hence, Wave A = Wave C. If the price sustains below 516, traders can trade for the following targets: 486 – 462 – 440 .
I will update further information soon.
Simple and clean breakout in Gold Gold was in a constant downtrend for a couple of days and took a retest over the trendline. At 1627 it took support thrice and gave a breakout candle after which there was a retest candle for confirmation and since then the price of GOLD has been rising at a decent speed. I hope many of you might have made decent returns in this area if you do trade in commodities. If not keep looking for such simple trades.
EWT - MCX Zinc Is Ready For Its Final Impulse MCX zinc has been forming the corrective structure in descending channel for more than 28 weeks. The ending point of impulse was 383.55 .
At present, MCX zinc has accomplished the corrective wave ((B)) and started forming sub-waves of the impulsive wave (C). Price has completed 78.6% retracement, where wave A = C at 217 . Zinc has accomplished wave (4) of wave ((C)). Wave ((C)) retraced 61.8% of wave ((A)). Zinc is trading below 50-day EMA , and RSI is above 30 .
Zinc will try to test the price hurdle of 267 , so traders can sell zinc nearby 267 for the following targets: 252.6 - 246 - 244.
Target measurement using the Fibonacci relationship:
Wave (5) of wave ((C)) can end near 161.8% reverse Fibonacci retracement.
Wave ((C)) can occur near 100% extension at 217 , where wave A = C .
Wave ((C)) can cease to exit at the lower band of the parallel channel.
I will update further information soon.
Natural Gas Support and resistance level for 23.08.2022Plot the the levels in your chart. Draw fib level from support and resistance. Please refer previous day chart for fib level. Fib level range should be 9 am to 11:30 PM.
If price crosses fib trendline(Dash line) will consider as upside break out. If price reject from there will consider to fall below.
if one support or resistance line broken maximum target will be 1.272 or 1.1618 fib level. Moving above 1.618 fib level is very rare scenario.
⛽ Crude OIL Traget MCX MCX:CRUDEOIL1!
Here We Are Using Harmonic For Target, it's A Unique Way To Use Harmonic, Long Above previous candle high stop loss already given on the chart. Trade as per your trade setup. As we are just adding quantity, our holdings from very low levels.
******whatever charts or levels sharing here or on any other platforms are just for educational purpose only, Not A Recommendation To Buy Or Sell. Please do your own analysis before taking any trade on them. We are not SEBI registered.
📊 Aluminium Break out 🎯MCX:ALUMINIUM1!
Everything mentioned chart ones get breakout, one can enter as per their trade setup. Target already mentioned and that is trailing basis, stop loss recent swing low.
******whatever charts or levels sharing here or on any other platforms are just for educational purpose only, Not A Recommendation To Buy Or Sell. Please do your own analysis before taking any trade on them. We are not SEBI registered.
COFFEE - Wide Awake Hi all,
I am here again to give you something valuable:)
Observed the coffee future chart which is trading in the multi year resistance zone. This is the fourth time now that it is into that zone and owing to increase in the prices of other commodities it may break the resistance this time.
Stocks of FMCG segment will benefit from it. One stock which I see benefitting from it is TATA COFFEE. I will post the chart of it soon, till then do your own due diligence.
Happy Learning!






















