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Consolidation

Nifty 50Rules 1. global sentiment negative 2. war was not end (Chart Shows Bear Flag) (2 days Consolidation ) 1.IF Tomorrow gap up 15 min candle should be green or if touches support .. if we can see the price action for buying side and buy the CE and exit at the target price 2.If Open in flat wait for the range break Up side or downside the take the trade 3.if gap down cross 15183.00 wait For close the 5 min or 15 min candle the crossed 15183 buy the Pe and wait for the target But as per logic . every time reversal it will take consolidation 60% win rate for up check the previous data dates 17 march 2022 dates 13 may 2022 Note . this just prediction. market can happen anything
NSE:NIFTY
by tarunkumar1996
Studing Consolidation Phase This is hourly timeframe. This is how I analyze the consolidation only technically. From fibo. recent top to bottom, Nifty is taking resistance 0.38 fibonacci level. Let's pointout the short trend and understand each. 1] Nifty started consolidating 6th May 2022. It started falling, gone sideways for sometime and gave bounce back. 2] And it tested the 16400 zone. As it was a straight one side move, it was obvious it will give a retracement. 3] But it was again a one side move, this time downward, and tested the recent bottom. Here, we witnessed a sharp upmove from bottom to top and again to bottom. 4] Again from 20th May, a sharp upmove towards resistance. 5] Tested and fallback this week. 6] Bounce backed again and now near resistance zone. In all of these short term trends, we can see thick bullish and bearish candles in phase 1 and 5. Though bulls failed in these phase. Almost each phase has 1) bullish and bearish belt hold 2) bullish and bearish marubozu Except phase 2,6 no bearish candlestick of this type. These opposite candlestick patterns occurance multiple times tells us that market is now choppy, highly volatile. Outcome of analysis: In current market situation, bulls and bear are almost equally powerful. Choopy moves indicates the aggression and dominating will. This how I analyze a consolidation. Breaks it down in trend zones and study each, and keep in back of the mind each one's outcome, and try to anticipate, every possibility. And how much is the chance of taking it place by looking at bull and bears behaviour. Note : This is my own analysis and is for information purpose only.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by AkshayAdak
Grauer & Weil break out and pull back1. Buy or Sell at your own risk 2. Don't risk more than 1%-2% of your capital as stop loss 3. Position Size formula:- Stop Loss Amount/(Buy Price-Initial Stop Loss Price) 4. Sell on initial stop loss hit or daily RSI closing below 40 5. Some other ways to sell stocks can be a. 25% or 50% up in three weeks or less b. Weekly tailing tops with high volume c. Exhaustion gaps d. Heavy daily volume without further upside e. Largest one day price drop after a consolidation since October 2021, BSE:GRAUWEIL gave a break out on 28th April and pulled back today to it's breakout point. It will be a buy if it crosses ₹72 once again with the stop at ₹67. Other fundamentals: 1. GWIL, with track record of over six decades in electroplating business continues to have leadership position in the domestic electroplating chemical industry with around 30% market share. GWIL is promoted by More family with Mr. Umeshkumar More, currently serving as Chairman, being associated with the company since July 1969. His more than five decades of experience helps the company in strategic planning and expansion of the business. 2. GWIL has planned total capex of around Rs.150 crore in next three years period ending FY24 whereby majority of the capex pertains to expansion of its capacity for industrial paints, setting up a research & development centre, expanding capacity of its electroplating chemicals with some minor capex at each of its manufacturing facilities. Also, its earlier envisaged capex for mall expansion has been put on hold in the medium term. This capex programme is proposed to be entirely funded from internal accruals and from its available liquidity as it has no plan to avail any term debt for the same. Realization of envisaged returns from the capex would be critical to maintain its comfortable return on capital employed. 3. Owing to its robust cash accruals, the company continues to finance its operational and capex requirements largely through internal accruals leading to strong capital structure marked by overall gearing of 0.04 times as on March 31, 2021. GWIL continued to have no long-term debt except the unsecured loans from promoters and lease liability. Also, with no major debt funded capex planned till FY24, the overall gearing of the company is expected to remain at comfortable level. On the back of very minimal debt and strong accruals, its debt coverage indicators also stood highly comfortable marked by Total Debt/GCA of 0.25 times and interest coverage of 39.47 times during FY21. 4. The company’s revenue profile is moderately diversified owing to its operations under different business divisions such as surface finishing (of which electroplating chemicals, paints & oil & lubricants are sub-divisions) engineering and shopping mall. Furthermore, electroplating chemical division has wide basket of products and the chemicals manufactured by the company finds its application in various industries such as automobiles, consumer durables, gems and jewellery, etc. Thus, GWIL benefits from the well-diversified product portfolio of chemical segment. Moreover, the company is also involved in the manufacturing of industrial paints, which is the second-largest contributor to the company’s revenue. The product profile in Paints include high performance industrial coatings (with applications in refineries, oil exploration, petrochemicals), Pipeline Coatings (duly approved by WRAS-UK and NSF –USA for application in drinking water pipelines, Irrigation water Intercity pipelines), Marine Coatings (having applications in ships for long life Anti-fouling coatings besides aerospace and defence coatings. The engineering division is involved in manufacturing and providing turnkey solution for electroplating plants, effluent treatment plants and other engineering products. Over 800 plants of varied types have been commissioned by division worldwide till now. Apart from the above, the company has shopping mall spread over 475,000 sq. ft. at Kandivali (Mumbai suburbs) with 247,000 sq.ft. of leasable area. Thus, the diversified revenue profile has helped the company to reduce its dependency as well as tide over any downturn in a particular business segment as was evident during FY21 (refers to the period April 1 to March 31) when income and profitability of shoppertainment segment had declined, the same was largely compensated by improved performance of its engineering division. 5. Last 10 years average ROE greater than 15%. 6. Debt to equity at 0.02 (less than 1 is good), Interest Coverage at 114 (greater than 3 is good), Current ratio at 3.31 (greater than 1.5 is good), FCF to CFO at 76.4%. 7. The company has a dividend yield of 0.72% (consistent dividend payer since 2010). 8. FII stake increased since September 2020 from 0.07% to 0.71% in March 2022. 9. Risk: - a) In chemical segment, the company’s raw materials are various kinds of metals, which are used in powder form for plating/coating, which continue to remain highly volatile. On the other hand, the industrial paints have crude oil derivatives as majority of its raw materials whereby prices of raw materials are linked to crude oil price, which is again volatile in nature. b) In chemical division, GWIL has been largely able to pass on increase in raw material prices in a timely manner on the back of its leadership position in the electroplating chemical segment. However, as pricing for supply of industrial paints are decided at the time of bidding, the profit margins of paints division remain exposed to volatility in the input prices. Moreover, being relatively small player in this division, the pricing power is also low. c) As the company’s operations involve import/export of raw material and sales of its products, it involves transactions in foreign currencies which are done mostly in Yen, USD, and Euro. During FY21, the imports accounted for Rs.58.99 crore as against exports of Rs.60.57 crore. The company has policy of hedging majority of its imports; however, the receivables are normally kept open and hence are exposed to foreign exchange fluctuation.
BSE:GRAUWEILLong
by akashbothra
Borosil bounce back from support1. Buy or Sell at your own risk 2. Don't risk more than 1%-2% of your capital as stop loss 3. Position Size formula:- Stop Loss Amount/(Buy Price-Initial Stop Loss Price) 4. Sell on initial stop loss hit or daily RSI closing below 40 5. Some other ways to sell stocks can be a. 25% or 50% up in three weeks or less b. Weekly tailing tops with high volume c. Exhaustion gaps d. Heavy daily volume without further upside e. Largest one day price drop NSE:BORORENEW is trading in a range since December 2021. On 5th April 2022 it broke out of a consolidation zone within the range, went back below the support on 12th April and gave a bounce back today. It's a buy with a stop at ₹610. Other fundamentals: 1. BRL is engaged in the manufacturing of low iron solar glass for application in photovoltaic panels. They are the first and the only producer of solar glasses in the country. The Company’s thinner fully tempered solar glass (2mm and 2.5 mm) offers niche products for glass modules. 2. BRL has a 40% market share in the Solar Glass segment. BRL has expanded its glass capacity from 180 TPD to 450 TPD, which is equivalent to the production of 2.5 gigawatts of solar modules annually. 3. During FY20, the company successfully raised 200 Cr through QIP and the money raised through the issue will be utilized for its expansion. The company will more than double its solar glass production capacity from 450 tons per day to 950 TPD. Capacity is being further expanded from 950 TPD to 1950 TPD in phases by 2024. 4. Increase in installed capacity of Renewable Energy is a high priority of government of India which continues to provide strong thrust to the installation of solar power projects. The government has announced three major steps underlining its commitment to the establishment of a strong domestic solar manufacturing eco-system. The first is the announcement of an additional allocation of Rs.19500 Crores under the PLI scheme for solar cells and modules raising the total allocation to a very impressive Rs.24000 Crores. The second is the formal announcement of basic customs duty on solar panels at 40% and on solar cells at 25% effective from 1st April 2022. The third is the scheme of Approved list of Models and Manufacturers introduced some months ago whereby effectively only Indian manufacturers of solar modules are able to supply to many types of government tenders which have now been extended to open access and net metering projects as well. (excerpt from investor call February 2022) 5. Even though 14 Gigawatts of solar module manufacturing capacity exists in India, actual production was about 5.5 Gigawatts during the financial year 2021. We see installed capacity rising to 50 Gigawatts of solar panels within the next three years. This will give a great boost to domestic production of solar equipment in India causing a major shift away from imports from China to sourcing from domestic manufacturers. Consequently, we expect increased demand for solar glass in India. We are in advanced discussion with many of these manufacturers who are all looking to have a local source of supply for solar glass. 6. The European Union has launched a solar accelerator program to promote production of solar modules in Europe. Solar components are likely to enjoy a sweet spot for the next many years. It is heartening to note that the solar installations in the country have picked up momentum in the current year. The installations in the first nine months of FY2022 have been 9.2 Gigawatts, which has matched the earlier best for a full year. This trend is expected to gain further ground and the level of annual installations is expected to accelerate to significantly higher levels. There is a growing demand from export customers looking at the expected significant rise in local production of solar modules in major markets i.e. to say Europe and USA. We see an attractive future growth in the company’s exports. 7. Borosil Renewables is currently undertaking a Brownfield capacity expansion, a third solar line with a capacity of 550 metric tons to meet the growing demand. This will enhance our capacity from 450 tons per day to 1000 tons per day. Commercial production from SG-3 is expected to commence in the second quarter of FY2023. Further, the company’s board has already approved further expansion of capacity through Solar Glass 4 & 5 in order to raise the capacity from 1000 tons to 2000 tons per day. Work on the SG-4 project is expected to commence during the second quarter of CY2022. Given the lead times required for capacity expansion this additional capacity can come on stream in the third quarter of CY2023. 8. The company has delivered good profit growth of 25.44% CAGR over the last 5 years. 9. Quarter sales growth at 20%, quarter profit growth at 332%, TTM sales growth 64% and TTM profit growth at 595% (December quarter). 10. Debt to equity at 0.10 (less than 1 is good), Interest Coverage at 62.5 (greater than 3 is good), Current ratio at 5.60 (greater than 1.5 is good). 11. Borrowings came down from 92Cr. in Mar'20 to 71Cr. in Sep'21.
NSE:BORORENEWLong
by akashbothra
Meghmani Finechem high volume breakout1. Buy or Sell at your own risk 2. Don't risk more than 1%-2% of your capital as stop loss 3. Position Size formula:- Stop Loss Amount/(Buy Price-Initial Stop Loss Price) 4. Sell on initial stop loss hit or daily RSI closing below 40 5. Some other ways to sell stocks can be a. 25% or 50% up in three weeks or less b. Weekly tailing tops with high volume c. Exhaustion gaps d. Heavy daily volume without further upside e. Largest one day price drop After consolidation since October 2021, NSE:MFL has given a high volume breakout today. Buy with a stop at ₹1000. Other fundamentals: 1. Meghmani Finechem Limited (MFL) is part of the Ahmedabad-based Meghmani Group. It was incorporated in September 2007 as a subsidiary of Meghmani Organics Ltd (MOL) but was demerged in April 2021. The company is primarily engaged in manufacturing and selling of Chlor Alkali & its Derivatives with backward and forward integration facilities and also engaged in trading of Agrochemical products. 2. MFL is the fourth largest amanufactururer of Chlor-Alkali and its Derivatives company in India. The company manufactures - a. Chloralkalis: Caustic Soda Lye and Flakes, Liquid Chlorine, Hydrogen, Caustic Potash Lye and Flakes, etc. b. Derivatives:The company has Chlor-Alkali Derivatives in the form of Chloromethanes and Hydrogen Peroxide. 3. The Company’s manufacturing complex is located in a 60-hectare facility in Dahej (Gujarat). The Company possessed the following capacities as of March 31, 2021: ~4th largest capacity of Caustic Soda at 2,94,000 TPA ~2nd largest capacity of Caustic Potash at 21,000 TPA ~3rd largest capacity of Chloromethanes at 50,000 TPA ~3rd largest capacity of Hydrogen Peroxide at 60,000 TPA ~ The company, in the second year of operations of the Chloromethanes plant, achieved 100% capacity utilization (FY 2020-21). ~The overall production of the company increased from 179 KTA in FY 2019-20 to 302 KTA in FY 2020-21, recording 70% growth. 4. The company's products are used in industries like Refinery, Paper & Pulp, Soaps & Detergents, Textiles, Dyes & Pigments, Pharma, Agro-Chem, Paints & Coatings, Alumina, Pesticides, etc. 5. The company is setting up the EPC and CPVC Resins plants which are expected to be commissioned by FY 2022 and 2023 respectively. a. Epichlorohydrin (ECH): Initiated in the Dahej plant, MFL will become the first manufacturer of Epichlorohydrin in India. The project will have a capacity of 50,000 TPA and will be based on TechnipFMC’s Epicerol technology. Once operational, it would be the first plant in India to run on 100% renewable resources. b. Chlorinated polyvinyl chloride (CPVC): The Company announced the setting up of the Chlorinated Polyvinyl Chloride (CPVC Resin) project in Dahej with a capacity of 30,000 TPA. The total cost of the project would be Rs.190Crs. 6. Quarter sales growth at 90%, quarter profit growth at 184%, TTM sales growth at 89% and TTM profit growth at 128% (December 2021). 7. Average ROE for the last five years at 25%. 8. March quarter results are due on 25th April.
NSE:EPIGRALLong
by akashbothra
Apcotex Breakout, Pullback and Bounce1. Buy or Sell at your own risk 2. Don't risk more than 1%-2% of your capital as stop loss 3. Position Size formula:- Stop Loss Amount/(Buy Price-Initial Stop Loss Price) 4. Sell on initial stop loss hit or daily RSI closing below 40 5. Some other ways to sell stocks can be a. 25% or 50% up in three weeks or less b. Weekly tailing tops with high volume c. Exhaustion gaps d. Heavy daily volume without further upside e. Largest one day price drop After the consolidation since September 2021, NSE:APCOTEXIND gave a high volume breakout on 19th April. On 20th April it pulled back to the support level and gave a bounce on Friday. It's a buy with a stop at ₹404. Other fundamentals: 1. TTM sales growth of 85% and TTM profit growth of 267% (December quarter). 2. Average Roe for last ten years at 15%. 3. Debt to equity at 0.10 (less than 1 is good), Interest Coverage at 36.6 (greater than 3 is good), Current ratio at 1.73 (greater than 1.5 is good). 4. FII steak increased since September 2021 from 0.40% to 0.91% in March 2022. 5. About the company: Apcotex Industries Ltd is engaged in the production of various types of synthetic latex and synthetic rubber. It was started in 1980 as a division of Asian Paints, manufacturing synthetic latex and was later spun-off as a separate company under the leadership of Mr. Atul Choksey, former MD of Asian Paints Ltd. 6. The company is a leading producer of Synthetic Rubber and Synthetic Latex in India :- a. Synthetic Rubber :- Nitrile Rubber, High Styrene Rubber, Nitrile Rubber, Nitrile Polyblends and Nitrile powder. b. Synthetic Latex :- XSB Latex, BP Latex, Styrene acrylics and Nitrile Latex. It has one of the broadest ranges of Emulsion polymers in the market and is the only manufacturer of NBR (Nitrile Butadiene rubber) in India. 7. The company exports its goods to 40 countries across various industry segments. During FY21, Domestic sales accounted for 82% revenues and exports accounted for the rest 18% revenues. 8. The company's customer base includes companies like ITC, JK Paper, Pidilite Industries, MRF, SRF, Century Enka, BILT, Paragon, Ajanta, Footwear, Relaxo, Jayshree Polymers, and others. 9. Long term credit rating has been upgraded by ICRA on March 2022. a. The upgrade of the long-term rating of Apcotex Industries Limited (AIL) factors in ICRA’s expectations that the company will be able to maintain a healthy financial performance, led by consistent revenue growth and a sustained margin profile. While the prices of raw materials have increased substantially in the current fiscal, the company passed on the same to its customers and hence was able to sustain the operating margins in a range of 13-16% in the last four quarters. The company is undertaking sizeable capex, which is likely to drive revenue growth, apart from diversifying the product mix and customer mix. b. The ratings continue to draw comfort from a healthy capital structure and debt protection metrics due to strong tangible net worth and limited reliance on debt. While the metrics are likely to moderate due to the ongoing planned capex, they are likely to remain comfortable. The company’s liquidity profile has remained strong due to healthy operational cash flows and availability of healthy cash and investments. The rating draws comfort from AIL’s strong market position in the synthetic rubber and synthetic latex segments in India and its promoter background with an experience of more than three decades in the industry. The ratings factor in the company’s diversified customer base across various end-user industries. 10. Risk: 60-70% of the company's operating cost comprises of raw materials. Its main raw materials are Butadiene, Styrene and Acrylonitrile. These raw materials are petroleum derivates and hence their prices fluctuate with crude prices. 11. Quarterly results are due on 27th April.
NSE:APCOTEXINDLong
by akashbothra
VBL good quarterly results1. Buy or Sell at your own risk 2. Don't risk more than 1%-2% of your capital as stop loss 3. Position Size formula:- Stop Loss Amount/(Buy Price-Initial Stop Loss Price) 4. Sell on initial stop loss hit or daily RSI closing below 40 5. Some other ways to sell stocks can be a. 25% or 50% up in three weeks or less b. Weekly tailing tops with high volume c. Exhaustion gaps d. Heavy daily volume without further upside e. Largest one day price drop On 18th April 2022 NSE:VBL gave a high volume breakout after a consolidation since November 2021. It will be a good buy if it comes down to the support zone of ₹1000 and ₹1040 with a stop at ₹990. It posted a very good set of numbers for the quarter ending on 31st March 2022. its quarterly sales increased by 26%, quarterly profit increased by 96%, TTM sales increased by 34% and TTM profit increased by 103%. Other fundamentals: 1. Debt to equity at 0.82 (less than 1 is good), Interest Coverage at 7.75 (greater than 3 is good), Current ratio at 1.72 (greater than 1.5 is good). 2. The company has delivered good profit growth of 72.11% CAGR over last 5 years. 3. The company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 17.64%. 4. The management of VBL Recommended the Bonus Issue of Equity Shares in the proportion of 1 (One) Equity Share of Rs. 10/- each for every 2 (Two) Equity Shares of Rs. 10/- each held by the shareholders of the Company. 5. Varun beverages is a part of the RJ group, which is the largest franchisee for Pizza Hut, KFC, Cream Bell and Costa Coffee in India. 6. The Company’s solid and well-entrenched distribution network covers urban, semi-urban, and rural markets, addressing demands of a wide range of consumers. The Company has 32 state-of-the-art manufacturing facilities in India, 6 internationally. It has a robust supply chain with 90+ owned depots, 2,500+ owned vehicles, 1,500+ primary distributors, and currently installed 775,000+ visi-coolers. 7. The Company has established backward integration facilities for production of preforms, crowns, plastic closures, corrugated boxes, corrugated pads, plastic crates, and shrink-wrap films in certain facilities to ensure operational efficiencies and high quality standards. The company also owns 55% stake (35% indirectly & 20% directly) in Lunarmech Technologies Pvt. Ltd. which produces and sells PET bottles caps and crown caps. 8. The company uses around 66,000 MT PET resin as packaging material for its finished products annually. It has engaged with GEM Enviro Management Pvt Ltd for phased implementation of 100% recycling of used PET bottles through collection from end users by placing dustbins reverse vending machines, direct collection from Institutions, etc. 9. In 2019, VBL concluded the acquisition of franchise rights in South and West regions from PepsiCo for a national bottling, sales and distribution footprint in 7 States and 5 Union Territories of India. With these acquisitions, the Company has significantly reinforced its partnership with PepsiCo and now account for over 80% of their India’s beverage sales volumes from 51% earlier. 10. In 2019, Pepsi co extended the bottling appointment and trademark license agreement from Oct 2, 2022 to Apr 30, 2039. 11. Risks: - a) The Company’s operations span 6 countries – 3 in the Indian Subcontinent (India, Sri Lanka, Nepal), which contributed 85% to total revenues. Currently Nepal and Sri Lanka are going through economic crisis. b) The beverage industry remains susceptible to changes in government regulations regarding the content of soft drinks, and to increasing environmental concerns in India about ground water depletion and discharge of effluents by bottling plants. Further, evolving concerns related to disposal of plastic may impact the beverages industry.
VLong
by akashbothra