Bitcoin (BTC): technical and fundamental analysis. Altseason. The price of Bitcoin has declined following the release of labor market data (JOLTS) and the FOMC meeting minutes, where Fed officials expressed concerns about the impact of Donald Trump's policies on the U.S. economy. BTC's price has once again fallen below the 200 EMA line and is currently retesting the support block at 90,000–91,000, which it has repeatedly bounced off over the past month. If Bitcoin breaks below this level under selling pressure, we anticipate a continued correction into the 4H Imbalance zone, located between the 0.5 and 0.61 Fibonacci levels. In this area, reversal patterns can be sought for building short-term long positions in the 87,000–82,000 range. The likelihood of further decline is indicated by the crossing of the EMA 200 and EMA 50 moving average lines. At the same time, the RSI indicator is already near its lower limits, offering hope for a quick end to the correction if the support levels of 87,000 and 80,000 hold against the sellers' pressure.
For Bitcoin to resume its upward trend, it needs to break above the dynamic resistance of the 200 EMA and hold above the psychological level of 100,000. In that case, we would expect further growth with a retest of the resistance block at 108,000–110,000 and a potential update of the all-time high.
📉 Bitcoin market global analysis. When does the altseason start?
On the daily logarithmic chart, the RSI indicator has crossed below the midline, suggesting a continued correction is likely. During Bitcoin’s rapid growth in November 2024, an Imbalance 1D zone formed in the 77,000–85,000 range, characterized by significant gaps at horizontal trading volume levels that need to be filled through consolidations.
After the correction is complete, the next target for Bitcoin's price growth could be the global trendline, drawn based on the two peaks of the previous growth cycle. This line may be tested around the 120,000 level, as confirmed by the analysis of large order blocks in exchange order books.
Meanwhile, the crypto market is gearing up for the much-anticipated altseason—a period when altcoins outperform Bitcoin in returns. Altseason typically follows Bitcoin's new all-time high and its consolidation within that range, as investors reinvest profits into other coins to maximize gains. However, the upcoming altseason will likely differ from previous ones due to the influx of institutional funds via Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs and the tightening regulation of crypto assets.
Historically, in 2017 and 2021, the start of altseason coincided with a decline in Bitcoin's market dominance. A drop in Bitcoin's share of total market capitalization below 50% could signal the beginning of altseason. Additionally, altseason often aligns with moments when Bitcoin reaches the upper boundary of the Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart.
💠 Analysis of liquidity zones and levels
The Fear and Greed Index remains in the Greed Zone - 69.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has fallen to $3.19 billion, while the Bitcoin Dominance Index has risen to 57.94.
According to the analysis of the accumulation of large order blocks in the order books, the supply and demand zones are located at the following levels:
🟢 Demand Zone: 80,000 - 91,000
🔴 Supply Zone: 105,000 - 120,000
Levels for long positions:
90,000 - psychological support level
87,000 - 88,000 - large support block
80,000 - large support block
Levels for short positions:
105,000 - largest resistance block
110,000 - largest resistance block
120,000 - ascending trend line of resistance
📊 Fundamental analysis
At the December meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) discussed various topics, ranging from inflation risks to the anticipated slowdown in rate cuts. Fed officials expressed concerns that Trump’s proposed trade and immigration policies could intensify inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, fresh U.S. labor market data may push the Fed to abandon further rate reductions. The cryptocurrency market reacted sharply, with significant price declines.
At the same time, financial analysts predict that the current bull market could become the longest in the history of the cryptocurrency industry. Investor optimism regarding a continued crypto rally surged after Bitcoin reclaimed levels above $100,000, following news that the largest BTC investor among public companies, MicroStrategy, resumed its coin purchases. The company acquired 1,070 Bitcoins for $101 million, bringing its total holdings to 447,470 BTC.
Experts believe the cryptocurrency market’s peak will occur in mid-2025, followed by a steep decline. Net liquidity of $57 billion, expected to flow into the market in the first quarter, may temporarily support the bull market. However, economic pressures are likely to trigger a correction. These projections are based on an analysis of market liquidity and the impact of political events, as U.S. dollar liquidity remains a critical factor in crypto market dynamics. Changes in Fed policy and U.S. Treasury operations could lead to significant volatility.
🌐 Upcoming Events in the Global Economy
We expect increased volatility in both stock and cryptocurrency markets on the following dates:
➤ 01/15, 16:30 - U.S. Core Consumer Price Index (CPI).
➤ 01/16, 16:30 - U.S. Initial Jobless Claims.
➤ 01/29, 22:00 - New Fed Interest Rate Decision.
➤ 03/19, 22:00 - New Fed Interest Rate Decision.
📈 Statistics of signals from our AI trading indicator:
In December 2024, the price of Bitcoin updated its historical maximum, then a correction began. Our trading indicator, as always, warned about this in advance! And even during the flat period it gave good entry points. Thanks to the latest updates, all signals have become profitable, and built-in Anti-Flat System prevented losses from manipulative market movements. 😎
Total price movement by all signals: + 45.09%
Maximum price movement: + 11.17%
Average price movement: + 5.01%
In addition, I would like to share the forecast of the latest Bitcoin price action by our AI, which not only indicates the direction, but also builds the trajectory of further price movement:
